NFL: NFC West 2007 Preview
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Seattle Seahawks (10-8 SU, 7-10 ATS in 2006)
A weak division, a devastating home field edge, and a balanced offense helped the Seahawks win the NFC West three years ago and reach the Super Bowl two season's ago. However, times are a changin'. Seattle had a key defection of the offensive line (Steve Hutchinson), endured some injuries, and watched the NFC West get more competitive. The defending NFC champs stumbled, sneaking into the playoffs, but clearly weren't as good as their 2005 team. Seattle finished 2nd in the NFL in total offense in 2005 with the 5th best rushing defense, but slipped considerably in 2006, especially on the defensive line allowing 125.8 yards rushing per game (4.5 ypc). They made a lot of changes on defense and look for better health on offense.
Coach Mike Holmgren likes a balanced offense. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck missed four games with a knee injury in 2006, then needed surgery to repair a torn left labrum. He threw for 2,442 yards, with 18 TDs and 15 INTs, so he'd like good health to return to his 2005 form (65.5% completions, 3,459 yds, 24 TDs, 9 INTs). RB Shaun Alexander (896 yards) missed seven games with a broken foot and averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. The offensive line is in transition, so it's unlikely he'll put up 2005 numbers again (1,880 yards, 5.1 ypc), but he should be better. The offensive line was forced to juggle the lineup throughout the season. The good news is that youngsters Rob Sims and Chris Spencer emerged. Spencer will replace the retiring Robbie Tobeck at center while Sims will start at left guard.
Last season they had 119 yards rushing and 193 passing per game, which was a far cry from their Super Bowl team where Alexander led the league in carries (370) and the offense was very balanced: 152 yards rushing, 217 passing per game that led the NFL in scoring. The Hawks top 2005 draft pick was C-G Chris Spencer from Mississippi and in 2007 they grabbed Mansfield Wrotto (Georgia Tech) in the fourth round. Nine offensive starters missed a total of 48 games -- including running back Shaun Alexander, quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and leading receiver Darrell Jackson. It was a factor in the postseason, when they played without starting cornerbacks Marcus Trufant and Kelly Herndon in both playoff games.
The wide receivers have had a case of the drops in recent years, but this is a deep unit. They lost top WR Darrell Jackson (956 yards), which means WR Deion Branch (53 grabs, 725 yards) will be asked to do a lot more. He's not a No. 1 wideout, but is quick, in his prime and more sure-handed than he played last season after holding out with New England and getting traded to Seattle. WR D.J. Hackett (45, 610 yards) and 34-year old Bobby Engram (290) are decent. The Seahawks still have wide receiver Nate Burleson, who caught 18 passes for 192 yards last season while bothered by multiple injuries. TE Jerramy Stevens (231 yards) was let go, so they are looking for tight end help.
The defense was the big reason the team slipped, finishing with the 18th-ranked defense in the NFL, and they especially slid against the run (22nd). The Seahawks were also 28th in red-zone defense. In 2007 they have a lot of new looks. Veteran Grant Wistrom was let go because they added former Atlanta DE Patrick Kerney. Since his 13-sack season in 2004, Kerney has totaled 11 sacks the past two seasons. A big move last year was keeping Rocky Bernard, Seattle 's sought-after defensive tackle, who re-signed with the NFC champions. Bernard had 10 1/2 sacks in the 2005 regular season and playoffs after 9 1/2 in his first three seasons combined, then slipped to 5 sacks last season on an underachieving unit. Middle linebacker Lofa Tatupu is fine and LB Julian Peterson was a great addition last season, with 10 sacks, but too many other players slipped.
The secondary was very poor and has a new look. Seattle added SS Brian Russell (Cleveland) and FS Deon Grant (Jacksonville). Russell directs the defense, making sure everyone is set and in place, while Grant is a big safety with good range. They replace former starters Ken Hamlin and Michael Boulware, who were out of position far too often in 2006. Maryland CB Josh Wilson comes in as a rookie from Round 2. Jim Mora is the Seahawks' new assistant head coach and defensive-backs coach, as well. The Seahawks offense should be very good, but they will go as far in the playoffs as the defense allows. This group was 11-6 "over" the total in 2004, 12-7 "over" in 2005 and 10-7 "over" last season. Seattle was 10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS at home in 2005 and 6-3 SU, 4-4 ATS last season. That's 16-3 SU, 12-6 ATS at home the last two years.
St. Louis Rams (8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS in 2006)
The Rams ended last season on a 3-0 SU/ATS run and carry some momentum into the new season, the second under coach Scott Linehan. He had been the Miami Dolphins offensive coordinator, while Jim Haslett runs the defense and Greg Olsen is the offensive coordinator. Olsen spent the previous two seasons with Detroit, first as quarterbacks coach then as co-offensive coordinator. The offense is still the strength of the team, averaging 22.9 points, 112 yards rushing and 247 passing.
QB Marc Bulger (63% completions, 4,301 yards, 24 TDs, 8 INTs) leads the way and excelled under Linehan's balanced offense, cutting down the picks that he too often threw under Mike Martz. He's got a great group of wideouts in WR Torry Holt (1,188 yards) and the reliable 34-year-old Isaac Bruce (1,098). They add WR Drew Bennett (Titans) and TE Randy McMichael (Dolphins), loading up this explosive arsenal. Bennett has size and fine hands and skills, while McMichael is dependable with excellent speed. He will compete with former Colorado TE Joe Klopfenstein, taken in the second round in 2006, and he caught 20 passes for 226 yards as a rookie.
The offensive line still has Orlando Pace, and they like 2005's first round draft pick 6-foot-8 Alex Barron (FSU), though this unit is not as strong as in their Kurt Warner heydays. They released starting RG Adam Timmerman. Fourth-year bull RB Steven Jackson (1,528 yards) is the big new back. Jackson finished last season with 2,334 yards from scrimmage, the most in the NFL, and 16 touchdowns. The Rams also signed backup RB Travis Minor (Dolphins) and drafted Rutgers FB Brian Leonard in the second round. Take note that the Rams in 2005 installed "Field Turf" at home, instead of their old "artificial carpet over concrete." They were only 4-4 SU/ATS at home in 2006.
The defense is another story. Not surprisingly, three of their top five 2005 draft picks went to the defensive side of the ball, and in 2006 they used three of their first four picks to shore up the defense. The run defense is still positively brutal, giving up 4.9 yards per carry the last two seasons, worst in the NFL, and 145 yards per game on the ground last fall. They finished last season ranked 31st against the run. Leonard Little is still a good pass rusher, and will get help with Nebraska DE Adam Carriker, who was taken in the 2007 first round to help generate some pass rush. The Rams added DE James Hall in a trade with the Lions, an undersized defensive end who has shown good production over his career when rushing the passer. LB Chris Draft (Panthers) was also added.
There are still too many holes on the defense, especially up front. CB Tye Hill (Clemson) was drafted in the 2006 first round and starts in the secondary. They add SS Todd Johnson (Bears), and CBs Lenny Walls (Chiefs) and Mike Rumph (Redskins) to add depth and experience to their secondary. The Rams are a miserable 10-16 SU/11-15 ATS on the road the last three seasons. This appears to be another rebuilding year, as the offense looks good, while the defense still needs work. They were 8-7-1 over the total last year and might be inclined to high scoring games again if this defense is still soft.
San Francisco 49ers (7-9 SU, 9-7 ATS in 2006)
For a team that went 7-9, expectations are high for the San Francisco 49ers this fall. Head Coach Mike Nolan begins his third season and the team had a huge offseason. They added outstanding free agent cornerback Nate Clements (Bills) and safety Michael Lewis to strengthen the secondary, while nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin and linebacker Tully Banta-Cain add depth to their 3-4 defense. WR Ashley Lelie has speed to help young QB Alex Smith, and on draft day the 49ers ended up with two first round picks, Mississippi's Patrick Willis (the best linebacker in the draft) and Joe Staley, a 6-foot-5, the 306-pound offensive tackle from Central Michigan. Staley's 4.7 second 40-yard dash at the combine was the fastest time of any offensive lineman.
Nolan was the defensive coordinator with the Baltimore Ravens in 2004. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner had been instrumental in the development of Alex Smith, but left to take the Chargers HC job. Third-year QB Alex Smith was the No. 1 overall pick in 2005, and he showed how tough it is to step up to the NFL with one TD and 11 INTS as a rookie, and last season he had 16 TDs and 16 picks, so he has a ways to go. He'll be working under his third offensive coordinator in three years as the 49ers promoted quarterbacks coach Jim Hostler to OC and will use a similar system to ease the transition on Smith. Hard working RB Frank Gore emerged as a force, rushing for 1,695 yards, 5.4 yards per carry, the best young back in the NFC.
Now if they can open up the passing game more, this could be a balanced and potent attack. That's where speedy WR Ashley Lelie comes in, though he has been a bust the last two years with the Broncos and Falcons, who couldn't wait to unload him. 26-year old speedy wide receiver Antonio Bryant (733) led the team, but they released him because of character issues. They also drafted Penn State's Michael Robinson in the 2006 fourth round, who can play RB, WR or kick returner. Arnaz Battle (686 yards) was surprisingly effective, and of course they love talented TE Vernon Davis (Maryland), who had 265 yards as a rookie. With their first pick in the third round, the 49ers chose San Francisco's WR Jason Hill, who grew up in the Fillmore District, attended Sacred Heart Cathedral and scored 32 touchdowns during his career at Washington State.
The 49ers have far more work to do on a defense that ranked last in the NFL in 2005 and struggled last fall, allowing 25.8 ppg, the most points in the league. The Niners switched to a 3-4 defense and they were average against the run, allowing 121 yards and 4.1 ypc, and the secondary has been porous. That's why they went hard after CB Clements, who is now the highest-paid defensive player in the history of the game. The defensive line has Isaac Sopoaga and Ron Fields, a pair of rookies in 2005, vying for the all important nose guard position alongside Aubrayo Franklin, who is average as a NT. Bryant Young was a bright spot on the line with 8 and 5.5 sacks the last two seasons and they like young LB Manny Lawson (NC State).
Rookie LB Patrick Willis instantly becomes the 49ers' linebacker on passing downs, where the team goes with five-and sometimes six-defensive backs. He'll also compete for the starter's job at weak inside linebacker in the 3-4 defense, a role that demands a quick LB. The position is held by Derek Smith, who's coming off surgery to repair a damaged eye muscle. The 49ers are a poor 6-26 SU/14-16-2 ATS on the road the last four seasons combined where the 'D' has allowed 27.6 points per game. From 7-9 in 2003 to 2-14 in 2004, 4-12 in 2005 and 7-9 last season, the 49ers are in the pangs of rebuilding from scratch. Last year's team overachieved to win 7 games, and expectations might be too high for 2007. Don't be surprised if they win 6-8 games despite all the moves.
Arizona Cardinals (5-11 SU, 8-8 ATS in 2006)
Is this the year? We've been waiting for decades, it seems, for the Cardinals to do something right. Back to back 5-11 season cost Denny Green his job, despite adding RB Edgerrin James and rookie QB Matt Leinart last year. New head coach Ken Whisenhunt takes over. He was the 2006 Steelers offensive coordinator, and has Russ Grimm coaching the offensive line and Clancy Pendergast on defense. Grimm was also in Pittsburgh and is a very good at building offensive lines. This unit actually started to play well late last season when Nick Leckey took over at center and Reggie Wells moved to right tackle. They grabbed Penn State OT Levi Jones in the first round and signed two offensive linemen, Mike Gandy and Al Johnson, to provide depth.
They could open more holes for halfback Edgerrin James, who must regret leaving the Colts. Last season James rushed for 1,159 yards, but averaged just 3.4 yards per carry. He also had 38 catches for 417 receiving yards. Terrelle Smith was added to be a pure lead-blocking fullback. The rest of the offense is loaded, with former USC QB Matt Leinart, the No. 10 overall pick in 2006, so they clearly have their QB of the future. Leinart was decent for a rookie, with 2,547 yards, 11 TDs and 12 picks. He has a terrific group of weapons to throw to.
Most exciting about this offense is two Pro Bowl receivers Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. Their numbers in 2005 were sizzling, and almost identical: Larry Fitzgerald caught 103 passes for 1,409 yards and 10 TDs, while Anquan Boldin grabbed 102 passes for 1,402 yards and 7 TDs. Last season Fitzgerald had 946 yards and Boldin had 1,203 yards. Talk about a speedy dynamic duo! Throw in a 2006 draft steal in 6-foot-7 TE Leonard Pope (161 yards), and this offense is loaded. But the Cardinals averaged just 3.2 yards a rush last year, which ranked last in the NFL.
"We want to be multiple," said Grimm, the team's offensive line coach. "Certain players fit different styles of offense. Some are better in some than others. We're looking for guys that pretty much can do a little bit of everything." That kind of versatility requires mobility. That's why coaches want right guard Deuce Lutui, who played at 338 pounds last year, to lose weight. That's why Reggie Wells was moved from right tackle to left guard. Moving Wells created a hole at right tackle, which will be filled by either Gandy, Oliver Ross or first-round pick Levi Brown. In coach Ken Whisenhunt's offense, guards don't just hit the linemen in front of them and then try to block a linebacker if they can. They'll often be asked to sprint to the other side of the ball and hit defenders in the open field.
The defense wasn't very good and has a lot of holes, but they did acquire an interesting piece in the second round in 6-6 DT Alan Branch (Michigan). He was expected to go higher, but there were questions about his work ethic. Still, he is a rare run-stuffer up front and the Cardinals desperately need some big bodies on the line. Cardinals linebacker Darryl Blackstock is a young keeper, and the secondary has former top pick CB Antrel Rolle from Miami and former third rounder Eric Green from Virginia Tech. Terrence Holt, Ralph Brown and Roderick Hood were also brought in to aid Arizona's thin secondary.
Arizona was an impressive 5-3 SU/ATS at home in 2004, but just 1-7 SU on the road. In 2005, they were 3-5 SU/ATS at home, 2-6 SU/3-5 ATS on the road, and last season was similar at 2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS on the road. Arizona is 5-19 SU its last 24 road games. The Cardinals have finished in last place in the division 13 times in the past 34 years. Regardless, this offense should give defenses fits and note the Cardinals were 11-5 and 10-6 OVER the total the last two seasons. In fact, they are 30-15 OVER the total their last 45 games!
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