NFL: NFC South 2007 Preview
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New Orleans Saints (11-7 SU, 10-8 ATS in 2006)
Wow! From 3-13 to 11-7 and a loss in the NFC Championship game. Saints fans have a lot to cheer about and they can thank head coach Sean Payton, QB Drew Brees and RB Reggie Bush. Payton coached the quarterbacks for Bill Parcells in Dallas in 2005 and also held the title of assistant head coach. Before that, he was a New York Giants assistant, a stint that included that team's NFC championship in 2000. Former Cowboys assistant Gary Gibbs is the new defensive coordinator, while Mike Sheppard remains as the offensive coordinator.
The Saints were No. 1 in the NFL in offense, averaging 25 points, 112 yards rushing and 280 passing. Free-agent quarterback Drew Brees was sensational, with 4,418 yards, 26 TDs, 11 INTs while completing 64% of his passes. Brees has great targets with Devery Henderson (745 yards) and find-of-the-century WR Marques Colston, who came out of Hofstra and caught 70 passes for 1,038 yards, 8 TDs. Throw in RB Reggie Bush and his 88 catches for 742 yards, and this passing game is lights out. They are also 9-5 over the total their last 14 games.
Bush easily coexisted in the backfield with RB Deuce McAllister (1,057 yards, 10 TDs), as Bush had 565 rush yards but was even more effective as a pass catcher. Payton did a great job of retooling the offensive line last season and they re-signed ROT Jon Stinchcomb, an underrated and valuable player. Everyone thought the Saints would upgrade the defense in the draft, yet they grabbed WR Robert Meachem in the first round of the draft, a speedy wideout from Tennessee. The Saints also went out and added TE Eric Johnson. He's 27 and had 82 catches in 2004 before missing the entire 2005 season. Last season, he caught 34 passes in 13 games and has great potential on this team. This offense is deep and talented, and will be one of the best in the NFL again.
As devastating as this offense is, the defense is a weak spot. They allowed 21 ppg, but struggled against the pass and allowed 31 and 39 points in two of their final three games. They add FS Kevin Kaesviharn, who is good in pass coverage, and rookie CB Usama Young (Kent) was taken in the second round. LB Brian Simmons comes over from the Bengals, but they still don't have much bulk up front. New Orleans was only 5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS at home, but 6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS on the road. In fact, the Saints are 9-16 SU, 7-17 ATS at home the last three seasons. They could struggle against the run, but this offense will keep them in all games. A division title and another playoff berth is a strong possibility as this franchise is FINALLY headed in the right direction.
Carolina Panthers (8-8 SU, 6-9-1 ATS in 2006)
It was an impressive three year run for John Fox and the Panthers, making the Super Bowl four years ago and getting to the NFC Championship game in January of 2006 before losing to Seattle. Until last season. The team underachieved and lost 6 of 8 in midseason to kill any playoff hopes after a 4-2 start. The Panthers didn't do a lot this offseason, losing linebacker depth with Chris Draft and Vinny Ciurciu leaving, and they let WR Keyshawn Johnson leave. Fox made major changes on his coaching staff, firing offensive coordinator Dan Henning and secondary coach Rod Perry.
Jake Delhomme returns at quarterback after a decent season when he completed 61% of his passes for 17 touchdowns, 2,805 yards and 11 interceptions. All-Pro wide receiver Steve Smith stepped up with a monster 2005 season catching 103 passes for 1,563 yards and 12 TDs and last season was THE MAN catching 83 passes for 1,116 yards and 8 TDs. Keyshawn Johnson had 815 yards and didn't work out as well as they had hoped, so he is gone. The Panthers were able to grab 6-foot-5 WR Dwayne Jarrett (USC) in the second round.
Fox loves the ground game and they have a new change for this season. Fox revealed that the Panthers will begin using zone-blocking schemes in their offense, a dramatic change for a system that's been built around a power-running style. Fox said new offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson will begin installing zone blocking by the offensive line. In a zone-blocking scheme, linemen are responsible for blocking any defender who appears in their zone, instead of focusing on one defender. The Broncos and Falcons have had success with the system, which features smaller, more athletic offensive linemen and can create running lanes on the inside and outside. Quick running backs DeAngelo Williams (501 yards) and DeShaun Foster (897) might be better suited to run the stretch plays that go with zone-blocking schemes than to pound away between the tackles.
After a season in which the Panthers had to shuffle their line because of injuries, Fox said the plan is to use Travelle Wharton at left tackle, shift Jordan Gross back to right tackle, keep Mike Wahle at left guard and Justin Hartwig at center. Geoff Hangartner, who filled in at center last season when Hartwig was injured, likely will compete with Evan Mathis at right guard. Gross, Wharton and Wahle fit the profile of athletic linemen who excel in a zone-blocking scheme. This offense averaged just 16.9 points and 103 yards rushing last season. They still are weak ay tight end, though. This has been a run-first offense, but with Steve Smith and rookie WR Jarrett, they look like a very balanced offense for 2007.
The ball hawking 2005 defense led the way with a +17 turnover margin, and ranked 3rd in the NFL in total defense, but slipped to 19 points per game in 2006 with all kinds of injury problems. LB Dan Morgan will play after battling concussions last fall, and the team grabbed Miami LB Jon Beason in the first round of the draft. They re-signed or restructured the contracts of OLB Na'il Diggs (age 28), Mike Rucker, LB Dan Morgan, S Mike Minter and Jordan Carstens. DT Chad Lavalais, a high-energy player, should help the front line.
They still have DE Julius Peppers, a fierce linebacking corps, led by Morgan, who has been a Pro-Bowler when healthy. However, the secondary looks to be a weak spot. Mike Minter is a solid veteran, not as fast as he used to be but an intense competitor. Safety Nate Salley is a second-year pro from Ohio State and is not fast, running the 40-yard dash in 4.67 seconds at the NFL scouting combine. Safety might be the bullseye Carolina opponents will target. Did you know that Panthers can bark loudly as a dog? Carolina is 12-5 ATS its last 17 as a dog, and 20-5 ATS its last 25 games as an underdog!
Atlanta Falcons (7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS in 2006)
No one knows what to expect from Atlanta this season. The inconsistent Falcons underachieved behind Jim Mora, who was fired. Former Louisville offensive wizard Bobby Petrino comes in as head coach. He has gotten the most out of his quarterbacks, with wide-open offensive schemes, but gets his biggest challenge with QB Michael Vick. Petrino plans to add audibles to the playbook and allow Vick more options, something he's been asking for the last few years.
Of course, Vick has more pressing concerns than football with his off the field legal problems, and he might not be around to play in 2007. They traded backup QB Matt Schaub, so newcomer QB Joey Harrington may be their starter. Regardless, this this won't be the all-running, no-passing team of the last three years.
Atlanta had the No. 1 rushing attack in the NFL in 2004 and the worst passing game. 2005: No. 1 in rushing and 27th in passing and last season tops in rushing, last in passing. Vick is an electric runner, but not an accomplished passer. Vick regressed in 2005 with 15 TDs and 13 INTs completing just 55% of his passes, and last season completed 52.6% with 20 TDs, 13 picks. Too often he throws the football at the feet or too high to guys that are wide open, something that Petrino might be able to help him with. You might say Vick's a great running back, but a below-average quarterback.
Vick ran for 1,039 yards last fall, and RB Warrick Dunn went wild with 1,140 yards, 4.0 ypc. Young RB Jerious Norwood impressed with 633 yards, 6.3 ypc, so this ground game is loaded, though the offensive line has been weak in pass protection (Vick was sacked 45 times in 2006). The addition of FB Ovie Mughelli is a sign Petrino wants a power rushing attack behind a physical fullback such as Mughelli. Guard Toniu Fonoti is massive and should help the line, along with G Justin Blalock (second round, Texas). But can they find some balance? The passing game has struggled badly with the erratic Vick and a lack of wideout speed.
Ace TE Alge Crumpler led the team in receiving the last three years (48 Rec, 774 Yds, 6 TDs in 2004, 65 Rec, 877 Yds, 5 TDs in 2005, and 780 yards, 8 TDs last fall). WRs Michael Jenkins and Roddy White haven't been very impressive, which is why they bring in WR Joe Horn. He can still stretch the field and should give Vick a No. 1 receiver, though he is aging and has had injury concerns. 6-5, 31-year old WR Brian Finneran will miss his second straight season after re-injuring his surgically repaired left knee that forced him to skip the entire 2006 campaign. Finneran was one of quarterback Michael Vick's favorite targets in 2005, hauling in 50 passes for 611 yards and two touchdowns. Backup QB Joey Harrington was added to replace Schaub and now might be No. 1!
The defense fell off the planet last season, ranking 22nd overall and 30th against the pass, allowing 229 yards in the air each game. The Falcons released LB Edgerton Hartwell and LB Ike Reese. Hartwell was a major free agent failure, and his departure will force LB Keith Brooking to move inside, though he's better at outside. Rookie DE Jamaal Anderson (Arkansas) was the 8th player taken in the first round and will help the line and pass rush, teaming with DE John Abraham. Abraham, Rod Coleman and NT Grady Jackson are getting older, something Petrino is going to have to address.
The secondary has young D'Angelo Hall and veteran Safety Lawyer Milloy, a former four-time Pro Bowler. He's getting up there in years and the secondary was very poor last fall. In the 2006 draft, Atlanta took CB Jimmy Williams (Virginia Tech) with the 37th pick and Arkansas CB Chris Houston was grabbed in the second round in 2007. Cornerback Lewis Sanders and LB Marcus Wilkins were signed for depth.
Petrino said he wants to use the running backs out of the backfield more as pass catching options. Anyone who thinks Vick is a strong NFL QB, remember that when they went to the NFC title game three years ago he had just 14 TDs, 12 interceptions and 56% completion numbers. They have been a one-dimensional offense and Vick hasn't demonstrated enough passing skills to bring a team back when they're behind. Atlanta started 5-2 last season before collapsing, and they went 11-4 under the total with a weak offense. Petrino was brought in to fix the offense. He's as good as any offensive mind in football, but a coach needs the players to get it done. Which means a lot hinges on Vick's arm -- and head.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12 SU, 6-9-1 ATS in 2006)
Five years removed from Super Bowl glory during the 2002 season, the Buccaneers rebuilding program/youth movement is still going on. They surprised with an 11-5 season in 2005, making the playoffs, but regressed badly in a 4-12 disaster. Age finally caught up to the defense last season and there are seemingly 100 quarterbacks in camp. The pressure is on Jon Gruden. QB Chris Simms looks to bounce back from an injury-marred campaign (one TD, 7 picks). Gruden did well as he put in a conservative short passing game in 2005 and Simms passed for 2,035 yards with 10 TDs, 7 INTs. But last year there was no continuity with Simms, Tim Rattay and rookie Bruce Gradkowski (9 TDs, 9 picks), who was forced into the fray. They finished 29th in total offense.
They've added veteran Jeff Garcia at quarterback, who is off a brilliant half-season with the Eagles, stepping in for Donovan McNabb leading Philly to the playoffs. However, Garcia had a solid offensive line in front of him, something the Bucs don't have. Tampa Bay averaged just 95 rush yards and 13 points in 2006. The Buccaneers also lost three offensive linemen in G Sean Mahan, backup OT Cornell Green while former first-round pick Kenyatta Walker failed his physical and was released. OG Arron Sears was drafted in the second round (Tennessee), and that follows draft picks OG Dave Joseph (Oklahoma) and OT Jeremy Trueblood (BC) with their first two picks in the 2006 draft. Tampa Bay also added veteran left tackle Luke Petitgout, so the O-line is in transition.
The running game has Carnell "Cadillac" Williams and he had a fine rookie season in 2005 with 1,178 yards, 4.1 ypc, but struggled behind a weak line (and no QB play) with 798 yards last fall, just 3.7 yards per carry. RB Michael Pittman (245 yards) is a good receiver and had 47 catches, 2nd on the team, and 405 receiving yards. FB Mike Alstott is returning for a 12th season. They like young WR Michael Clayton (356 yards) and wide receiver Joey Galloway, who stepped up with 1,057 yards and 7 TDs. TE Alex Smith (a 2005 third-round pick from Stanford) had a fine rookie season with 41 catches for 367 yards and last fall had 250 yards. They add rookie RB Ken Darby (Alabama), as well. This is a balanced, ball control offense rather than an explosive one.
Defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin has some work to do on an aging defense. Veteran Kevin Carter at defensive end comes aboard, and they grabbed Clemson DE Gaines Adams with the fourth overall pick. There is still LB speed with LBs Derrick Brooks and Ryan Nece, along with third-year LB Barrett Rudd. The Bucs added yet another first-round draft selection to their defensive arsenal, trading for defensive tackle Ryan Sims, who was selected sixth overall in the 2002 draft by Kansas City. The Bucs gave up a draft pick for Sims, who has been a major disappointment since coming to the NFL out of North Carolina. Injuries such as the dislocated elbow that cost him 10 games his rookie season and the foot sprain that kept him out of all but six games in 2005 have played a part in Sims' downfall.
Though he has some versatility and tends to play well against the run, Sims is said to lack the burst, closing speed and double moves necessary to get to the quarterback. He comes to the Bucs following a season in which he played in 16 games but recorded just seven tackles after losing his starting left tackle job to Ron Edwards. For his career, Sims has recorded 79 tackles, five sacks and one pass breakup in 59 games. He is expected to compete with Kevin Carter, Ellis Wyms, Chris Hovan and 2007 draftee Greg Peterson for playing time in the interior of the Bucs' defensive front.
CB Ronde Barber is an ace on a secondary that was strong against the pass. Tampa Bay's fourth-round pick Tanard Jackson (Syracuse) played four years as a cornerback at Syracuse, but the 6-foot, 200-pound prospect has been asked to switch to safety. Look for plenty of low scoring games again, as the Bucs were 11-5 "under" the total in 2004, 11-6 "under" the total in 2005 and 9-7 "under" last fall. Tampa Bay was 0-6 SU/2-4 ATS in the division and a miserable 1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS on the road last season. Look for Garcia to emerge to help this team improve, or a coaching change. They're probably closer to a coaching change than a winning season.
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