NFL: NFC North 2007 Preview
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Chicago Bears (15-3 SU, 11-7 ATS in 2006)
Fourth-year coach Lovie Smith has gotten the team to play tough defense and 2006 was memorable, ranking sixth in total defense while getting to the Super Bowl. This talented young team went up in smoke, though, getting dominated by the Colts, 29-17, with QB Rex Grossman playing awful. The offseason was a continuation of that disappointment, it seemed, with all kinds of problems. DT Tank Johnson got in more trouble and the Bears jettisoned him, power running back Thomas Jones was traded to the NY Jets for next to nothing, and LB Lance Briggs was unhappy after the Bears put the franchise tag on him.
Despite these setbacks, this is still one of the more talented teams in the NFC. The organization finally did the right thing extending the contracts of head coach Lovie Smith and general manager Jerry Angelo. They have a strong young nucleus and defense leads the way. The defense has several building blocks including LB Brian Urlacher, who has great speed as the best LB in the game. Lance Briggs finished second on the team in tackles (134) and established himself as a third-down presence. The line is led by DT Tommie Harris, DE Adewale Ogunleye, Alex Brown and Ian Scott, a talented handful making this a formidable cast. Harris hopes to bounce back from an injury and the Bears run defense suffered badly without him. Defensive end Mark Anderson, a fifth-round draft pick from Alabama in 2006, impressed coaches with his athleticism. The Bears were the fifth best defensive unit in the NFL, and created a league-leading 44 takeaways.
Chicago allowed just 10 and 15 ppg at home the last two seasons, where they have gone 15-4 SU, 12-7 ATS. Oddly, despite a great defense and a weak offense, the Bears used their 2006 draft picks on mostly DEFENSIVE players! The retirement of CB Jerry Azumah prompted them to use their 2006 first pick (second round) on CB Dan Manning (Abliean Christian). CB Ricky Manning Jr. joined the Bears and was strong, with 5 picks, while CB Charles Tillman also had 5 INTs. 2007 second round pick DE Dan Bazuin was added (Central Michigan), so this young defense is loaded with star power and depth.
While the defense is solid, the offense was 29th in the NFL in 2005, then jumped to 15th last season as they got a healthy year out of QB Rex Grossman. However, questions remain about Grossman (23 TDs, 20 picks), who had a bizarre season. He began the year with a 10-2 TD/INT ratio, then was horrible on Monday night against Arizona, with no TDs, 4 picks on 14-of-37 passing. That shakiness continued, including back-to-back no TDs/3 INT games against the Patriots and Vikings and a terrible Super Bowl performance. He will turn 27 in August but one has to consider him the lone weak link of this talented team. 32-year-old Brian Griese (1 TD, 2 picks) is the backup.
The draft brings Grossman and offensive coordinator Ron Turner a valuable weapon in Miami, Florida, TE Greg Olsen, a first round pick. Turner has been wanting to get the tight end involved more in the offense the last few years and now gets his chance with the talented Olsen. The offense added Pro Bowl veteran wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad in 2005 and he led the team with 64 catches for 750 yards that season and 60 catches for 863 yards last season. Speedster Bernard Berrian emerged as a big threat (775 yards, 6 TDs) for Grossman and on special teams. The running game loses the valuable Thomas, so they will be asking more of big RB Cedric Benson from Texas, who ran for 647 yards, 4.1 ypc. Rookie running back Garrett Wolfe (Northern Illinois) was added for depth, but might not have the size to be a successful NFL back.
The Bears also have one of the most dangerous return men in the NFL in Devin Hester and do a fine job on special team units. The weak offense was the main reason they went 10-6 "under" the total in 2004 and 11-5 "under" in 2005, but with a healthy Grossman being a Mad Bomber at times, the 2006 Bears were 13-4 "over" the total. Coach Smith believes increased speed is the way to build a championship team. He has it on both sides of the ball. The Bears play in the easiest division, so their chances of another division title are strong, and a return trip to the Super Bowl wouldn't surprise.
Green Bay Packers (8-8 SU, 7-8-1 ATS in 2006)
The Packers were quiet in free agency and took a lot of flack from fans, not drafting a wideout for Brett Favre, then narrowly missing out on the Randy Moss sweepstakes. But it wasn't that bad of an offseason. Favre is returning for his 17th season, which gives them a chance, and they ended 2006 on a 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS run, evening winning twice as a dog at San Fran and Chicago. They did fine under first-year head coach 43-year-old Mike McCarthy and had a decent offseason. McCarthy had been the 49ers' offensive coordinator in 2005, when they were last in the NFL in total offense. Yet, Green Bay in 2006 finished 9th in total offense and 12th in overall defense.
The good news is QB Brett Favre is back, eschewing talk of retirement again. Favre has been erratic the last few years, throwing 18 interceptions to 18 touchdowns last season, with 3,885 yards, but he still gives them a better chance to win than young Aaron Rodgers. Favre threw for 3,881 yards in 2005, though he was erratic at times with 20 TDs and a whooping 29 INTs. He too often forces the ball. It interesting that McCarthy was the QB coach in 1999 and Favre struggled in his only year with McCarthy, throwing 23 interceptions to 22 touchdowns that season. The key this season is to get some offensive balance, as ace RB Ahman Green left.
The Packers have a good young line to build around and former backup RB Vernand Morency (421 yards, 4.6 ypc) will get a shot at replacing Green. Nebraska RB Brandon Jackson (second round) and Florida RB Deshawn Wynn were added in the draft. They don't have a lot of weapons for Favre in McCarthy's West Coast offensive attack. Backup TE David Martin signed with the Dolphins and a year ago unhappy WR Jevon Walker left town in a huff. WR Donald Driver has been solid, with 1,221, 1,208 and 1.295 receiving yards in each of the last three seasons. They took a chance with speedy rookie WR Greg Jennings (Western Michigan) in 2006, and he turned out to be a nice find, with 632 yards. Offensive balance will be a key: Back in 2004, Favre had 30 TDs, 17 INTs, for 4,088 yards with a strong ground game. Third-year QB Aaron Rodgers, a first round draft selection from California, is in the wings but will have to sit another season.
The Packers have suffered no losses from the NFL's 12th-ranked defense under first-year defensive coordinator Bob Sanders. Green Bay has had four defensive coordinators in five years! Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila has 14 sacks the last two seasons, with DE Aaron Kampman off a monster season. Defensive end Aaron Kampman signed a contract extension with the Packers last year, then the 6-foot-4 and 278 pound end had 89 tackles and a career-high 15 1/2 sacks last season. Rookie LB A.J. Hawk led the team with 121 tackles and 3.5 sacks. The Packers re-signed OLB Tracy White and re-signed starting right defensive end Cullen Jenkins to a long-term contract. DT Justin Harrell (Tennessee) was grabbed in the first round to help stuff the run.
The secondary isn't getting much younger behind defensive back Charles Woodson, though he had 8 picks. The Packers signed backup CB Frank Walker from the New York Giants, a career backup who provides depth, and rookie DB Aaron Rouse comes in from Virginia Tech (third round). Sports bettors take note: The Packers have been overvalued in Lambeau Field at 10-15 SU and 6-18-1 ATS the last three seasons (3-5 SU, 2-6 ATS last fall)! They could be a playoff contender, or bottom out if there is no running game and Favre forces too many passes.
Minnesota Vikings (6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS in 2006)
Former Eagles assistant Brad Childress took over as Minnesota head coach last season. He did a fine job building both lines, as the Vikings were No. 1 against the run. He didn't have time to take care of the skill positions and it showed, as the Vikings had no offense (23rd). After a 4-2 start to the season, the Vikings lost 8 of 10 (2-8 ATS). The 50-year-old Childress had been the Eagles' offensive coordinator since 2002. Former Green Bay quarterbacks coach Darrell Bevell is the offensive coordinator, and there is a new defensive coordinator in Leslie Frazier. One thing to keep in mind is that Childress is a hard driving, demanding coach. That can pay dividends if winning follows (like Jimmy Johnson, Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick), or wear out players fast.
The key for this season is finding a quarterback. QB Brad Johnson turns 39 in September and was dumped after a forgettable season, landing in Dallas. Second-year QB Tarvaris Jackson (2 TDs, 4 picks) clearly wasn't ready and looked to run more than he threw. He is a mobile quarterback from Alabama State, a guy the Vikings moved up to draft in the 2006 second round. And they raised a lot of eyebrows around the NFL with that move. QB Brooks Bollinger is also available, another mobile guy who isn't really NFL caliber. Childress ran a West Coast passing attack while with the Eagles and he has brought the same thing to Minnesota. Now if only Jackson or Bollinger can morph into Donovan McNabb...
After running a two-tight end offense for years, the Vikings switched back to a base set that includes one tight end and a fullback. That should work out better this season because the Vikings were able to land Oklahoma RB Adrian Peterson with the No. 7 overall pick. Minnesota ranked 16th running the football, but the offensive line lost some depth with the departures of backup OG Jason Whittle (Bills) and backup RT Mike Rosenthal. Peterson will team with RB Chester Taylor (1,214 yards) and RB Mewelde Moore (131 yards, 5.5 ypc) in what is now a deep backfield. The improved running game will take some pressure off the young QBs.
Veteran TE Jermaine Wiggins (386 yards) was let go, so they add backup TE Visanthe Shiancoe (Giants), who has size and good speed. Top 2005 draft pick WR Troy Williamson from South Carolina is a speedy wideout but had only 37 grabs, 455 yards. WR Bobby Wade comes over from the Titans and brings some value as a return specialist, but he's not a strong playmaker at wideout. WR Travis Taylor (651 yards) is average so they grabbed speedy rookie WR Sidney Rice in the second round from South Carolina and may be a key piece of the puzzle. Minnesota was 11-5 UNDER the total in 2005 and 18-13 under the last two years combined. They averaged just 17.6 ppg in 2006.
New defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier inherits a strong line that ranked 1st against the run, allowing just 61 yards rushing per game, but ranked last against the pass giving up 239 yards in the air each game. The outstanding line is anchored by 34-year old DT Pat Williams, young Kenechi Udeze and former first-round draft pick Erasmus James (Wisconsin), though James is coming off season-ending knee injury. A lack of a consistent pass rush and an average secondary forced teams to give up on the run and just throw all the time on the Vikings. So defensively the Vikings add SS Mike Doss (Colts) in the secondary, along with rookie CB Marcus McCauley (Fresno State), taken in the third round. The loss of MLB Napoleon Harris (Chiefs) was a blow and could hurt the run defense. The Vikings counter with LB Ben Leber, MLB E.J. Henderson and talented young second-year LB Chad Greenway. They also add backup OLB Vinny Ciurciu (Panthers), a hard-nosed player on special teams.
We wonder about this organization and coaching staff. Note that Childress, whose attacks on Daunte Culpepper last year became comical, managed to insult an entire college coaching staff with his comments about the 2006 draft. The Vikings traded up into the second round to take Tarvaris Jackson of Alabama State, who apparently is a self-taught signal-caller. Childress described Jackson as ''a guy who is a piece of clay and has all the skills. I think he is a sponge. You are talking about a guy that never had a coach there as a quarterback coach. So what can he do with coaching? He's got the skills. What can he do with coaching?"
Childress didn't bother to find out that Jackson actually had a quarterback coach: Reggie Barlow, a receiver and punt returner for three teams in eight NFL seasons. ''Next time you see Brad Childress," said Barlow, ''tell him some people in Alabama weren't very happy with those comments." A year ago we wrote, "The Vikings appear to be an organization in for a significant fall this season." They did. For 2007, there appear to be improvements, but how far can any team go without a QB?
Detroit Lions (3-13 SU, 6-10 ATS in 2006)
The good news is there are more changes to the Lions. The bad news is that GM Matt Millen isn't one of them. Using three consecutive picks in the first round on WRs, as Millen did, is an industry joke (two of whom they've let loose). A wideout touches the ball 5-6 times a game. How can you waste three straight top picks on one, ignoring other areas? It's typical of Millen, one of many examples that show he's in over his head. He made it 4 WRs in 5 years by grabbing Georgia Tech WR Calvin Johnson, who was the best player available. Still, it doesn't make up for the other blown first round picks like Charles Rogers, Mike Williams and Joey Harrington.
The Lions were 9-7 in 2000 when Millen took over, and they've gone 2-14, 3-13, 5-11, 6-10, 5-11 and 3-13 under him. How does Millen keep his job? Rod Marinelli begins his second year as head coach. He spent the previous 10 seasons in Tampa Bay as defensive line coach. Fiery Donnie Henderson is the defensive coordinator, while the offense coordinator is Mad Mike Martz, the former offensive wizard with the Rams.
Their needs are still many. The running game was dead last in the NFL and gained just 3.7 yards per carry. The Lions made moves to strengthen these two areas, acquiring two running backs and three offensive linemen with starting experience. A trade with Denver added tailback Tatum Bell and right tackle George Foster, then they added second tailback, former Michigan State star T.J. Duckett, and guard Zach Piller of Tennessee signed a one-year contract. Running back Kevin Jones (689 yards) runs the show behind a revamped offensive line. Though he is coming off a Lisfranc injury that could jeopardize this season. Jones stepped in and ran for 1,133 yards averaging 4.7 YPC as a rookie in 2004.
The running game is still a question mark, so look for the Lions to throw often again with 6-foot-5 WR Calvin Johnson aboard for OC Mike Martz. Detroit was 7th in the NFL in passing in 2006. QB Jon Kitna will turn 35 in September and threw 21 TDs, 22 picks. Rookie QB Drew Stanton was grabbed from Michigan State, a guy Millen coveted (which probably means Stanton will be a bust). Whoever quarterbacks will have outstanding wideouts, with rookie Calvin Johnson joining leading receiver Roy Williams, who caught 82 passes for 1,310 yards and WR Mike Furrey (1,086 yards). RB Kevin Jones also showed that he can be a threat out of the backfield catching 61 passes for 520 yards.
Henderson has some talent to work with on defense up front. Shaun Rogers returns at defensive tackle up front. Rogers is coming back from the worst season of his pro career. He expects to rebound to the level of the 2004 and '05 seasons, when he was regarded by his peers as one of the NFL's most dominating defensive tackles. He made the Pro Bowl both years. Rogers had an outstanding performance in the season-opening loss to Seattle, then disappeared. After the fifth game, Rogers was suspended by the NFL for violating the league's policy on banned substances. He had taken something to help lose weight before training camp. Rogers didn't play again. He had surgery on his knee the first week he was on suspension. He also had shoulder surgery later in the season to repair an injury suffered in training camp.
Top 2005 draft pick Shaun Cody from USC will also vie for playing time on the inside. Cory Redding and Rogers are the starters, with Cody the third man. Redding had eight sacks last year after moving from left end to tackle. Dewayne White, a free agent from Tampa Bay, was signed to play left end. Kalimba Edwards will start at right end. LB Boss Bailey returns on the strongside, with young outstanding LB Ernie Sims (125 tackles), joining rookie DE Ikaika Alma-Francis (Hawaii). Sims was a first round pick in 2006 Florida State. The secondary allowed 220 yards per game ranking 25th in the league and they traded CB Dre Bly to the Broncos. They also lost safety Terrence Holt (to Arizona) and CB Jamar Fletcher signed with Houston, so this secondary doesn't look very good. Detroit is 2-13 SU, 6-9 ATS its last 15 road games. A suspect secondary and a likely all-pass offense: If you're looking for a team to go over the total, the Lions might be it, but don't look for a lot of wins.
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