NFL: NFC East 2007 Preview
|
Philadelphia Eagles (11-7 SU, 9-8 ATS in 2006)
The last two years the Eagles have lost star QB Donovan McNabb to a knee injury. In 2005 they stumbled to 6-10, but last season they made the playoffs, beating the Giants before losing 27-24 to the Saints. The difference? They had a backup QB in Jeff Garcia last season who stepped in and played great. McNabb is back healthy again, but Garcia is gone. That's partly why they drafted Houston QB Kevin Kolb with their first pick (second round). Donovan insurance. Still, at age 30, McNabb is a force and likely to have a comeback season, especially since the Eagles have done a great job building both lines.
Coach Andy Reid still runs a fine program and there is talent, so they look to retool in 2007. QB Donovan McNabb was actually having another great season when he went down, with 18 TDs and only 6 INTs. McNabb has reached a plateau that puts him in the NFL quarterbacking elite as a throw first and run when necessary double threat that can cause nightmares for defensive coordinators. He has something to prove this year, too, namely good health. He runs Reid's West Coast attack beautifully.
Offensively, the Eagles have added WRs Kevin Curtis and Bethel Johnson to replace departed speedster WR Donte' Stallworth. Curtis was very good with the Rams and should thrive in this system. Johnson, on the other hand, has great speed, but never developed in New England, who couldn't wait to unload him in 2006 despite having a lack of wideouts. Johnson battled injuries last season while in Minnesota, doing little. Re-signing Correll Buckhalter was a key, which lightens the load on workhorse RB Brian Westbrook (1,217 yards, 5.1 ypc). Westbrook also caught 77 passes for 699 yards. They like young WR Reggie Brown (816 yards), who led the team in yards, while grabbing RB Tony Hunt (Penn State) in the draft.
Former Cincinnati tight end Matt Schobel backs up starter L.J. Smith (611 yards). The Eagles made three trades in the 2006 draft to move up in the fourth round and select mammoth guard Max Jean-Gilles and wide receiver Jason Avant to add offensive depth. In that same draft, the Eagles also addressed their needs on both lines, grabbing OT Winston Justice (USC) and DE Brodrick Bunkley (Florida State). Former first-round pick Shawn Andrews is the right guard on a strong O-line.
Defensively, the Eagles ranked 23rd in the league and ranked 21st against the run in 2005, allowing 4 yards per carry, and slipped to 26th against the run last season (though 15th overall in total defense). Doing a better job at stopping the run needs to be a priority. In the 2007 draft the added DE Victor Abiamiri (Notre Dame) and LB Stewart Bradley (Nebraska). The Eagles re-signed DE Juqua Thomas and CB William James, both are important depth players. They still have Jevon Kearse, who missed last season with an injury, but had 7.5 sacks in each of the previous two seasons. The secondary is still strong, though the Philadelphia depth took a hit with the defections of former starting SS Michael Lewis and backup CB Roderick Hood.
The Eagles are also solid on special teams, too, with punter Dirk Johnson and K David Akers. How good a coach is Reid? Philadelphia is an incredible 33-18 SU, 31-19 ATS on the road the last 6 years! The Eagles went to four straight NFC title games under Reid, dropped down to six wins in 2005 but rebounded in 2006 winning the NFC East. The Eagles are in good position to contend in the NFC this season with solid lines, a great QB, and balance and depth on both sides of the ball. Another NFC East title wouldn't surprise.
Dallas Cowboys (9-8 SU, 9-7-1 ATS in 2006)
It's hard to believe Bill Parcells' last NFL game will be that botched field goal at the end of the shocking playoff loss at Seattle, but that's likely the case. Expectations were huge in Dallas a year ago, with a loaded team that was capable of doing a lot in the weak NFC. With that said, the 2006 Cowboys were a flop. WR Terrell Owens battled injuries and too many dropped passes, QB Drew Bledsoe was benched (and eventually retired), giving way to Tony Romo-mania. Yet, this group never gelled and they ended 2006 on a miserable 3-game skid, losing at home to the Lions 39-31, getting flattened by the Eagles at home, 23-7, and then the playoff flop at Seattle.
New head coach Wade Phillips takes over replacing Parcells. He ran the Chargers defense last season and was blitz-happy. Phillips was chosen mainly because he is one of the best 3-4 coaches in football and the Cowboys have loaded up on players for that scheme. He inherits a talented Cowboys team that should be good, though there is also a new offensive coordinator in Jason Garrett. Unfortunately for the new staff, a lot depends on young QB Tony Romo, who passed for 2,903 yards, 65.3% completions, 19 TDs and 13 picks. He was hot early on, then as teams made adjustments they forced the mobile Romo to stay in the pocket more, and he struggled.
Romo has a lot of help with a talented offense. The Cowboys rebuilt the offensive line last season and it is decent, with versatile offensive lineman Kyle Kosier, Andre Gurode, and 6-foot-7, 304-pound offensive tackle Jason Fabini, who is in the middle of a three-year contract. WR Terry Glenn is off a strong season with 70 catches for 1,047 yards, along with WR Terrell Owens (85, 1,180 yards). Backup quarterback Brad Johnson was another solid addition in case Romo stumbles.
They love young TE Jason Witten with 64 catches for 754 yards. RB Julius Jones (1,084 yards) is a bright star offensively and averaged 15.8 yards per catch out of the backfield. RB Marion Barber is the team's backup after running for 538 yards as a rookie in 2005 and 654 yards last fall. The kicking game is still a sore spot, with Martin Gramatica replacing bust Mike Vanderjagt last season. All in all, this offense is very strong and balanced, provided Romo doesn't regress.
Parcells fixed the defense heavily through the 2004 draft and it has paid off as the defense finished 13th in the NFL last season. The focus has been on adding versatile players who can play in a 3-4 scheme. The Cowboys gave up the league's most yardage on first down and rarely got pressure on quarterbacks on first down, but that should change as Phillips blitzed all the time with San Diego's great LB corps. Former top pick LB Demarcus Ware has been terrific, and DE Marcus Spears can go against 320-pound tackles at the point of attack in the 3-4. The linebackers are loaded, with DeMarcus Ware, Bradie James, Akin Ayodele, Bobby Carpenter, Greg Ellis, Kevin Burnett and Anthony Spencer vying for playing time. Linebacker Greg Ellis is still working his way back from Achilles' tendon surgery last season.
First-round pick Anthony Spencer is aboard, a quick DE from Purdue. Cornerback Aaron Glenn anchors a veteran secondary, along with safety Marcus Coleman, an 11-year veteran, along with young SS Roy Williams. The secondary had a lot of breakdowns last fall, something Phillips needs to fix. The secondary finished 24th in pass defense in 2006 and adds FS Ken Hamlin. Dallas looks very strong, especially if Julius Jones can take the heat off Romo with a decent running game, and Owens keeps his mouth shut and plays. They should contend for the NFC East title.
NY Giants (8-9 SU, 8-8-1 ATS in 2006)
The Giants flopped under Tom Coughlin, finishing up the season 2-7 SU, 3-5-1 ATS. They were sloppy, undisciplined and fractured after a 6-2 start, then backed into the postseason, getting beat by the Eagles, 23-20. Despite rumors of a coaching change, the Giants shocked many by bringing Coughlin back. He will be feeling the heat in 2007. Unfortunately for Coughlin, they lost ace RB Tiki Barber to retirement, still have holes on the offensive line and need defensive help, particularly at linebacker.
Coughlin is fighting for his head-coaching life. He signed a one-year extension for 2008, but needs to win this season and probably go deep into the playoffs. Coughlin brought in Chris Palmer as the quarterback coach and moved Kevin Gilbride over to offensive coordinator. After rushing for 135 yards per game, how much balance will this offense have without the workhorse Barber? Young bull moose Brandon Jacobs is in the backfield. He had 423 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, but asking him to do what Barber did (1,662 yards) is unrealistic. The Giants traded wide receiver Tim Carter to the Browns for running back Reuben Droughns to help Jacobs. New York also re-signed starting center Shaun O'Hara, which keeps some continuity to the offensive line.
The backfield situation means more pressure on young QB Eli Manning (3,244 yards), who took over in week eight back in 2004, but is still inconsistent. Manning threw 24 TDs and 18 picks last season, and that was with a great running game to aid him. In 2005, he threw for 3,762 yards, just 52.8% completions, with 24 TDs, 17 INTs. That 2005 season ended badly with a 23-0 home loss to Carolina in the first round of the playoffs, so there is a ways to go. The Giants need a bit more speed to what is a deep wide receiver position and hope they got it with USC WR Steve Smith in the second round.
Manning has plenty of weapons in the passing game. In 2004, they used a strategy they never tried under George Young, as GM Ernie Accorsi attacked the free agency market during the offseason and acquired several quality additions to help fill their needs including WR Plaxico Burris. The tall Burris has been productive, leading the Giants with 988 yards last season and 10 TDs. WR Amani Toomer (360) hopes to bounce back from a lost season to injuries, while TE Jeremy Shockey (66 grabs, 623 yards) makes this a versatile and potent passing game. In the 2006 draft they added WR Sinorice Moss, the speedy Miami wideout, who caught 5 passes for 25 yards last fall, another option. The Giants have dangerous offensive pass weapons and are very good in the red zone.
The defense slipped to 24th overall in 2005 and was awful against the pass, ranking 27th in the league. Last season they had some trouble against the run, allowing 118 yards per game, 4.1 yards per carry, and the pass defense again ranked 27th in the NFL. So Texas Cornerback Aaron Ross was plucked in the first round of the 2007 draft to help the secondary. LB Lavar Arrington wasn't the answer at LB, and he was released, so they will move former Boston College DE Mathias Kiwanuka (2006 first round pick) to linebacker for this season. The hope is that Kiwanuka will look a lot like Carlos Emmons, who played three injury-filled seasons at both strong-side and weak-side linebacker for the Giants before retiring in February.
They also add middle linebacker Kawika Mitchell. Pro Bowl defensive end Osi Umenyiora (hip) and Mike Strahan (foot) are stars but have been stuck with injury issues. The line gets some depth with DT Jay Alford (Penn State) and Brown LB Zak Deossie, whose father (Steve) used to play for the Giants. Three-year veteran Gibril Wilson needs to improve in the secondary, along with free safety Will Demps. The Giants won the NFC East in 2005, but ranked 27th in the league against the pass.
Losing Kicker Jay Feely to the Dolphins was a blow, as he did a fine job. After going a poor 4-12 SU, 5-11 ATS at home in 2003 and 2004, the Giants were 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS at home in 2005, but just 3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS last fall. That makes them 14-19 SU, 13-19-1 ATS their last 33 home games. The Giants need to win to save Coughlin's job, but there are still holes on defense and the running game loses one of the best backs in the game. This team has the offensive talent make a run at the postseason, but the defense and running game are question marks. It's time for Manning to step up and stop throwing picks, but one has to wonder if the loss of Barber puts too much pressure on him.
Washington Redskins (5-11 SU, 5-9-1 ATS in 2006)
The Redskins were a bit of a miracle-team in 2005, making the playoffs at 11-5, but they slipped back to their 2004 form (6-10) by going 5-11 last fall. Joe Gibbs begins his fourth season and there are a lot of holes on this team, not a good thing in such a competitive division. Washington runs a conservative, run-oriented offense that ranked 9th in rushing in 2005 and fourth in rushing last season, averaging 135 yards per game. Veteran QB Mark Brunell was finally phased out as they turned the reigns over to young QB Jason Campbell, the mobile QB who was the number 25 pick in the 2004 draft. He threw 10 TDs and only 6 picks last fall, but completed only 53% of his passes.
RB Clinton Portis was banged up and ran for just 523 yards and hopes a return to health will get him back to his 2005 numbers (1,516 yards, 4.3 YPC). RB Ladell Betts ended up as the workhorse with 1,154 yards, a strong 4.7 ypc. One, or both, will once again play an important roll in keeping defenses honest in this run-first attack. The offensive line is led by talented Chris Samuels.
QB Campbell has one deep threat in WR Santana Moss, and he led the team again with 790 yards and 6 TDs. Back in 2005 Moss excelled with 84 catches, 1,483 yards. They need to get him some help, as former free agent WR Antwaan Randle El (351 yards), WR Brandon Lloyd and WR David Patten didn't impress. Patten was finally let go and was one of their many free agent busts. They still have Mark Brunell, who will turn 37 at the start of the season, and mobile rookie QB Jordan Palmer (UTEP, Carson's brother) comes aboard. The one-back offense will continue to be the base formation.
The offseason moves were made to help the defense, which struggled against the run (27th), allowing 137 yards per game, 4.5 ypc. The centerpiece was the addition of MLB London Fletcher, who should help their aggressive, attacking defense. They set a franchise record low with only 19 sacks in 2006. They added depth through the 2006 draft with LB Rocky McIntosh, DT Anthony Montgomery and Andre Carter, the 6-foot-4, 265-pound linebacker, comes aboard, while in 2007 the Skins grabbed safety LaRon Landry from LSU with the 6th overall pick, a great cover man and powerful hitter. The Skins secondary ranked near the bottom of the NFL in 2006.
CB Fred Smoot returns for his second stint with the club, and they added David Macklin, a reserve corner. Teamed with holdovers Shawn Springs and Carlos Rogers, there is plenty of depth and flexibility at cornerback. With defense and a conservative offense, remember that Washington is 30-19 "under" the total since Joe Gibbs arrived in 2004. Washington carries a 6-3 under the total run into the new season. Most teams try and build through the draft, but the Redskins have tried to do it backwards, giving away picks while signing free agents. Dumping S Adam Archuleta and WR Patton, among others, shows that their building paradigm isn't the way to go. Another last place NFC East finish is more likely than a playoff spot.
|
|
