NFL: AFC West 2007 Preview
|
San Diego Chargers (14-3 SU, 9-8 ATS in 2006)
It's amazing how things can completely turn around in the blink of an eye. The 2006 San Diego Chargers were riding high, off a dominating 14-2 regular season. They had MVP RB LaDainian Tomlinson and the best crop of talent on both sides of the ball in the NFL. The way to the Super Bowl was paved in Charger gold, it seemed. And then came the first playoff game, a stunning fourth quarter collapse to the Patriots, a 24-21 defeat at home. San Diego blitzed and harassed QB Tom Brady all game, held the edge in rushing yards 148-51, and led 21-13 with five minutes remaining. In the end, foolish penalties, some undisciplined play, conservative and at times unusual play-calling and just plain bad luck only added to Coach Marty Schottenheimer's dismal postseason record (5-13).
The chaos didn't end there, as both top assistants left. Then Schottenheimer wanted to make his brother defensive coordinator, which was the last straw in an icy relationship with San Diego General Manager A.J. Smith. Marty was out and new head coach Norv Turner takes over. While losing that one game appeared to be Schottenheimer's final straw, it was more than that. For a team that has gone 12-5, 9-7 and 14-3 the last three seasons, it had been kind of a depressing run for the Chargers. General Manager A.J. Smith never felt Schottenheimer was the right guy to get this team to the next level and was furious that the 2005 Chargers failed to make the playoffs. Schottenheimer went ultra-conservative in a playoff loss 20-17 at home to the Jets three years ago, then in 2005 they had a dynamite team on paper that finished No. 1 on defense against the rush, yet failed to make the playoffs. Bad luck, and conservatism, plagued the Chargers again, losing 5 games by a TOTAL of 14 points!
Losing their first playoff game after a 14-2 season was the final straw of a 3-year battle in frustration between the coach and GM. Norv Turner takes over, with Ted Cottrell as the new defensive coordinator. Turner last had this much offensive talent to work for when he was OC of the Cowboys during their Super Bowl run in the early 1990s. On the other hand, his teams in Oakland and Washington underachieved. San Diego finished 4th in total offense (No. 2 in rushing) and 10th in total defense (7th against the run). QB Phillip Rivers impressed in his first full season and passed for 3,338 yards with 22 TDs, 9 picks last season. He is surrounded by a ton of skill position talent. TE Antonio Gates (924 yards) and WR Eric Parker (659 yards) are solid, and they add rookie WR Craig Davis (from LSU) in the first round. They will provide a strong passing punch for the relatively new QB.
There is no concern about the ground game, which has a fine offensive line and an ace in MVP RB LaDainian Tomlinson. The remarkable Tomlinson ran for 1,815 yards (5.2 ypc) and 28 TDs, while catching 56 passes for 508 yards. In 2005 he ran for 1,462 yards and 18 TDs, while catching 51 passes for 370 yards. In 2004 he ran for 1,335 yards and 17 TDs, while catching 53 passes. In 2003, he had 100 catches, 725 receiving yards, 4 TDs, along with 1,645 rushing yards, 5.3 yards per carry and 13 TDs. He is one of the best young offensive players in the game and will carry the load again. Backup RB Michael Turner signed the $2.35 million, one-year tender, a bruising 237-pounder who averaged 6.3 yards per carry last year in spelling Tomlinson. Auburn offensive tackle Marcus McNeill (No. 50) turned out to be a steal in the 2006 NFL draft anchoring a great offensive line along with guard Kris Dielman, center Nick Hardwick, and right offensive tackle Shane Olivea.
The Chargers have gotten younger on defense and it has helped, especially up the middle. Run stopper 348- pound Jamal Williams, Luis Castillo and DT Igor Olshansky clog the middle and allow some talented young linebackers to make plays. LB Steve Foley came over from the Texans and was sensational in 2004, with 10 sacks, along with LB Randall Godfrey and LB Shaun Phillips. LB Shawne Merriman was a huge hit in 2005, garnering Defensive Rookie of the Year honors, and was a force again last season despite missing 4 games. The run defense was third in 2004, first in the NFL in 2005, and 7th in 2006.
San Diego continues to draft cornerbacks, and this secondary still needs work after allowing 205 passing yards per game, 13th in the NFL (up from 28th in 2005). Drayton Florence was a rookie in 2004 and was thrown into the fire, and in 2006 the Chargers selected Florida State cornerback Antonio Cromartie with the No. 19 pick. Cromartie is a gifted cornerback and was a good pick. After going 1-15, 5-11, 8-8 and 4-12 the previous four years, San Diego completely flip-flopped in 2004 and has been a power since. San Diego is 16-8 SU, 16-6-2 ATS on the road the last three seasons! How will the team react to Schottenheimer's firing, a popular player's coach? Turner really doesn't have any excuses with all this talent. San Diego has all the pieces for a Super Bowl run if they get over the shock of a roller coaster offseason.
Denver Broncos (9-7 SU, 5-11 ATS in 2006)
After losing the AFC Championship game to Pittsburgh in January 2006, a 34-17 home loss, Denver stumbled through a 9-7 2006 season, missing the playoffs on the final day, a crushing home loss to the 49ers in OT. Along the way, starting QB Jake Plummer was finally benched (and eventually retired), and rookie QB Jay Cutler took over. Then there were two awful tragedies, with the death of CB Darrent Williams a few hours after the season ended. On February 24th, Broncos running back Damien Nash, 24, died at a charity basketball game. It was a season of changing-on-the-fly for Denver and an awful offseason. The Broncos and coach Mike Shanahan were very active, too.
After Shanahan traded up to get Vanderbilt quarterback Jay Cutler with the No. 11 pick (acquired from St. Louis), Cutler took over in midseason and threw for 1,001 yards, 59% completing, 9 TDs and 5 picks. Cutler has but five games of NFL experience but has a better arm and greater upside than Jake the Snake. Denver has a strong wideout duo in WR Rod Smith (512 yards, 3 TDs) and WR Javon Walker (1,084 yards). TE Daniel Graham was signed as a free agent from the Patriots and is an excellent blocker and decent pass catcher. Denver also added veteran slot WR Brandon Stokley, but he is coming off an injury-plagued 2006 season. Shanahan was not happy with RBs Tatum Bell and Mike Bell, so he adds RB Travis Henry from the Titans.
Tatum ran for 1,025 yards, 4.4 ypc and was shipped to Detroit, while Mike Bell added another 677 yards. Mike Bell put the ball on the ground too often. He will still get plenty of carries, but the main back is now the 28-year old Henry. There are plenty of tools for Shanahan and second year OC Mike Heimerdinger to work with. The running game will still utilize zone blocking schemes, and ranked 8th in the NFL despite Shanahan's unhappiness. In the last 9 seasons, the Broncos have had six different runners (Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis, Ruben Droughns and Tatum Bell) rush for at least 1,000 yards in a season. All in all, this offense looks better, balanced and talented.
The defense battled injuries and finished 14th overall. Under defensive coordinator Larry Coyer the plan was not to blitz much but try for balance on defense, but he was let go after the Broncos allowed an average of 26.1 points in their final 10 games of 2006. They bring in new DC Jim Bates, who said he will blitz more. "No. 1, the top priority is you have to play well against the run," Bates said. "You have to stop the run to get the sticks in our favor where it's third down-and-long. That gets you more sack opportunities." The linebacking corps is still strong, led by D.J. Williams and Ian Gold. Up front, the Broncos have plenty of youth with DE Elvis Dumervil, and rookies DE Jarvis Moss (Florida, 1st round) and DE Tim Crowder (Texas). Injury-plagued DE Courtney Brown was released and the team added Alvin McKinley from the Browns and traded with Miami for DT Dan Wilkinson.
On June 4, the Broncos signed 345-pound defensive tackle Sam Adams, a three-time Pro Bowl player who spent last season with Cincinnati. Adams, 35, is as a run-stuffer, but has 44 career sacks, fourth among active defensive tackles. Adams started all 16 games for the Bengals last year with 25 tackles, two sacks. The Broncos added another 300-pound-plus lineman, acquiring defensive tackle Jimmy Kennedy from the Rams in exchange for an undisclosed 2008 draft pick. Kennedy, listed at 320 pounds, spent the past four seasons with the Rams, who picked him 12th overall in the 2003 draft. In 53 career regular-season games, Kennedy has 149 tackles (76 solo), four sacks, five pass breakups, two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries.
With newcomer CB Dre Bly and Champ Bailey at the corners, an opposing quarterback's only chance may be to try the intermediate patterns between the linebackers and safeties. They had to trade Tatum Bell, RT George Foster and a 2007 mid-round pick, but Bly is strong in man-to-man coverage. The secondary still has veteran safety John Lynch, though he is getting up there in years. Safeties Nick Ferguson and Sam Brandon are coming off season-ending injuries. The talent is strong, but something has been missing. In 2003, Denver had a winning record, a trip to the playoffs and a team that finished with No. 7 offense and the No. 4 overall defense, but they flopped in the postseason getting bombed by the Colts. In 2004, the same thing happened: They tightened up the pass defense by acquiring CB Champ Bailey, had close losses to the Jaguars, Raiders and Chargers (twice), then got bombed again, 49-24, in the playoffs at Indy.
And then came that AFC title game loss at home to the Steelers as a 4-point favorite and the 2006 season-ending collapse to San Fran, 26-23, that would have sent them to the playoffs. Kicker Jason Elam (27-of-29 FGs) is a terrific weapon, and 13-year veteran punter Todd Sauerbrun was brought back. Sauerbrun has a career punting average of 44 yards. Denver is 25-9 SU/13-19-1 ATS at home the last four seasons where the offense averages 24 ppg. All in all this is a very talented team that should get back to the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs (9-8 SU, 8-9 ATS in 2006)
The Chiefs made the playoffs in coach Herm Edwards' first season, but this is still a team with a lot of holes. He was a bad hire, a conservative coach who relies on emotion rather than Xs and Os and in-game adjustments. That was obvious in the playoffs as the Colts dominated the Chiefs basic, ground-oriented offense even though the defense picked of Peyton Manning 3 times. His clubs in NY beat up below-average teams, but struggled badly against good teams. He may be the perfect college coach, as Pete Carroll was a rah-rah guy who blossomed in the college game. Edwards's NY offenses were ultra-conservative and his KC team was even more so.
The Chiefs have been an older team and Edwards is trying to make them younger. The offense appears in trouble, losing Willie Roaf last year, Will Shields (retirement) this season, and WR/special teams weapon Dante Hall was traded away. QB Trent Green is 37 and they dealt him to Miami. Green (7 TDs, 9 picks) was lost in Edwards' run-first offense, so the offense is in the hands of QB Damon Huard (11 TDs, one pick) and young Brodie Croyle. The QBs will have able targets in TE Tony Gonzalez (73 catches, 900 yards, 5 TDs), WR Eddie Kennison (53, 860 yds, 5 TDs), and rookie WR Dwayne Bowe (LSU), taken with the 23rd overall pick. The Chiefs were an excellent red-zone passing team, and they locked up Gonzalez to a long deal.
The running game has a young moose in RB Larry Johnson, who stepped up with 1,750 yards, 5.2 ypc and 20 TDs in 2005 and 1,789 yards, 4.3 ypc, and 17 TDs last season. He set a league record last season with 416 rushing attempts. But will he be able to do that without the key pieces to the offensive line? OT Kyle Turley is also gone, so Pro Bowl guard Brian Waters will carry the load. The Chiefs signed Damion McIntosh from Miami to play left tackle, though he's no Willie Roaf. RB Michael Bennett should get more touches so they don't burn out Johnson, which they did last fall as he was awful in the playoffs. This is still a far cry from the Dick Vermeil teams: In 2004, Kansas City was No. 1 in the NFL offensively, with 143 rushing yards per game (5th) and 275 passing yards each game (4th). In 2005, Kansas City was No. 1 in the NFL offensively again, with 148 rushing yards per game (4th) and 238 passing yards each game (6th). Last season: KC was 9th in rushing, 22nd in passing.
Say one thing for Edwards: He has a defensive background and did improve the KC defense. They still need some beef up front to improve against the run, which is why they drafted DT Turk McBride (Tennessee) and DT Tank Tyler (NC State) in the second and third rounds. Kansas City hasn't been happy with linebacker Kendrell Bell, so they upgraded by adding starting linebackers Donnie Edwards and Napoleon Harris. They will team with Derrick Johnson, who was terrific, so they might have a strong LB trio. The Chiefs also added defensive ends Jimmy Wilkerson and Alfonso Boone to bolster the line. The Chiefs used the No. 20 pick in the 2006 draft selecting Penn State defensive end Tamba Hali, so the line is very good.
Three-year veteran defensive end Jared Allen, 25, is the Chiefs' outstanding young pass rusher, though he was suspended (substance abuse) by the NFL for the first four games of the 2007 season. He has 165 tackles, 27.5 sacks, 10 forced fumbles, eight fumble recoveries, one interception and 15 passes defensed in 47 appearances and 41 starts. The cornerbacks, Ty Law and Patrick Surtain, are good but getting old. Kansas City released SS Sammy Knight in an attempt to get younger in the secondary. They drafted Purdue safety Bernard Pollard in the 2006 second round. This team looks like the Jets teams Edwards coached to three playoff appearances. The problem is that age is catching up with them on offense and in the secondary.
KC went 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS at home last season, and is 25-7 SU, 21-11 ATS at home the last four seasons. They went 10-6 OVER the total in 2004, too, 11-6 OVER in 2003 and 11-5 OVER the total in 2002. However, they slipped to 10-6 under the total in 2005 and 9-7 under with the conservative Edwards running the show. That trend could continue if the conservative Edwards keeps running LJ into the line (and into the ground.) The Chiefs are in transition and will likely drop out of playoff contention, as they were lucky to slide into the postseason last year.
Oakland Raiders (2-14 SU, 6-10 ATS in 2006)
A new era begins in Oakland. Black and Silver fans can only hope it's not like that last two "new eras" under Norv Turner and Art Shell. Al Davis has done a lousy job with head coaches, going bust under Turner and old buddy Shell. Shell had been working as the senior vice president of football operations and development for the NFL, and hadn't been a head coach since the Raiders fired him following the 1994 season. A disastrous 2-14 season followed in 2006. Bobby Petrino was rumored to have turned down Davis a year ago. So Davis brings in 31-year-old Lane Kiffin as the head coach, the youngest head coach in the NFL. Kiffin was hired to improve an offense that was one of the worst in modern NFL history, scoring only 12 touchdowns last season.
Before moving to the future, let's look at the recent past. In 2003 Oakland couldn't stop anyone and finished 4-12 SU, 3-12-1, went 5-11 in 2005, and 2-14 last fall. In 2005, Oakland failed to win a division game (0-6 SU/ATS) for the first time since owner Al Davis came aboard in 1963. WR Randy Moss reportedly didn't want to play, so they shipped him out of town. After passing on QB Matt Leinart a year ago, the Raiders didn't make that mistake this time, grabbing LSU QB JaMarcus Russell with the top pick in the NFL draft, a raw 6-foot-6 specimen with a cannon for an arm. Even without Moss, the Raiders have decent wide outs with Jerry Porter (who had his problems last year with Shell), Ron Curry, and Doug Gabriel. Porter had 942 yards receiving in 2005 with QB Kerry Collins. The Raiders add free agent wide receiver Travis Taylor, who had 57 catches for 651 yards and three touchdowns last season for the Vikings.
TE Zach Miller was grabbed in round 2, a big target from Dirk Koetter's pass-happy Arizona State offenses, and TE Tony Stewart comes over from the Bengals. RB LaMont Jordan is overpaid and off a poor season, 434 yards, but hopes to return to something closer to his 2005 season when he ran for 1,025 yards. RB Justin Fargas (657 yards) led Oakland in rushing, but the team may have gotten a steal in the draft with Louisville RB Michael Bush. Bush was a consensus first round pick until he broke his leg the first week of the season. The signing of RB Dominic Rhodes (Colts) adds depth along with the addition of FB Justin Griffith (Falcons). Kiffin wants to run a balanced offenses. The Raiders upgraded their offensive line with the signings of C Jeremy Newberry (49ers), G Cooper Carlisle (Broncos) and OT Cornell Green (Buccaneers). Though QB Russell is raw and a rookie, this offense couldn't be any worse than 2006. The kicking game is solid with Sebastian Janikowski (18 of 25 FGs).
Rob Ryan, the defensive coordinator, did an excellent job improving the defense. This young unit made tremendous strides in 2006 and finished third in total defense and has everyone back. The defense is aging a bit up front, with DE Bobby Hamilton and Warren Sapp, but still played well. The Raiders made two key moves by re-signing LB Robert Thomas and DT Terdell Sands and rookie DE Quentin Moses (Georgia) could help the pass rush. DE Derrick Burgess is a force and led the league with 16 sacks in 2005 and added 11 more last fall.
They lost 12-year veteran cornerback Tyrone Poole, but young cornerbacks Nnamdi Asomugha and Fabian Washington, and Michael Huff and Stuart Schweigert anchor a very strong secondary. The secondary improved dramatically with the addition of DB Huff, a first round pick in 2006. Oakland is 4-20 SU/8-16 ATS on the road last three seasons. They can't be any worse, but don't look for a winning record yet in this tough division. Oakland is 20-43-1 ATS the last 4 years.
|
|
