NFL: AFC South 2007 Preview
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Indianapolis Colts (16-4 SU, 12-8 ATS in 2006)
Redemption! You can make the argument that more talented Colts' teams from 2003-05 fell apart in the playoffs, but Tony Dungy's troops finally had a magical postseason run, getting to (and winning) the Super Bowl. How do you think Edgerrin James feels? The offense was sensational again, ranking second in the NFL, but the defense led the way to the title. After ranking last in rushing yards allowed, the Colts swarmed the football in the postseason, allowing 8, 6, and 17 points in three of four postseason games, plus shutting down the Patriots in the second half of the AFC Championship game. The Colts went 10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS at home, but 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS on the road.
It was a veteran team that was stocked to the cap, so Indy had to let a lot of talent leave. They did put the franchise tag on defensive end Dwight Freeney, but lost free agent LB Cato June, running back Dominic Rhodes left for the Raiders, WR Brandon Stokley is gone, and starting cornerback Nick Harper is now with the division rival Titans and will be missed. Fortunately, the offense is still loaded. After throwing for an NFL record 49 TDs with just 10 interceptions in 2004, QB Peyton Manning led a more balanced attack in 2005 with 28 TDs, 10 picks. Last season Manning passed for 4,397 yards, 65%, 31 TDs, 9 picks as the best QB in the game. They had the No. 1 passing attack in football in 2004, No. 4 in 2005 (No. 3 in total offense), and No. 2 in passing in 2006.
This is nothing new, of course, as the staggering numbers keep building. Manning completed 67% of his passes for 3,747 yards in 2005, and in 2004, he passed for 4,557 yards with 49 TDs and only 10 INTs while hitting on 67.6% of his passes. In 2003, he passed for 4,267 yards with 29 TDs and only 10 INTs, getting co-MVP with QB Steve McNair. In 2002 he passed for 4,200 yards and 27 TDs, after passing for 4,131 yards in 2001. Manning has a pair of 1,000-yard receivers. Brilliant WR Marvin Harrison (95 catches, 1,366 yards, 12 TDs) and WR Reggie Wayne (86 receptions, 1,310 yards, 9 TDs) are a devastating duo for Manning. WR Brandon Stokley is gone, which is why they drafted Ohio State slot WR Anthony Gonzalez. TE Dallas Clark (367 yards) is a fine fit and had a great postseason.
The running game didn't miss James at all, with Dominic Rhodes rushing for 641 yards and rookie RB Joseph Addai (a first round pick from LSU) proved to be a power back, rushing for 1,081 yards, 4.8 ypc. Addai will be asked to do more, as Rhodes left for the Raiders. Free agent kicker Adam Vinatieri was money again, nailing 25-of-28 FGs. In 2004, the Colts offense averaged 404 total yards pg (294 passing, 109 rushing) averaging 32 points per game. In 2005, the Colts offense averaged 359 total yards pg (255 passing, 104 rushing), and last season they struck for 26.5 points (114 yards rushing, 265 passing). They are perfectly built for the indoor speed at Indy, though they were not a good road team last season.
Indy is 25-3 SU, 16-11 ATS at home the last three years! The Colts were 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS at home in 2004 where they rolled over opponents by an impressive 38-23 average, and 7-2 SU, 3-6 ATS at home in 2005 where they beat teams by a 23-13 average. Last season was more of the same, outscoring opponents by a 29-19 average at home. The team has risen fast since the arrival of Peyton Manning in 1998 and Tony Dungy in 2002 as head coach. Dungy begins his sixth year as head coach and he has a deserved title under his belt. No one can say he hasn't paid his dues. They had a trip to the AFC Championship game, losing in the cold at New England, 24-14 in 2004, losing again in the playoffs there in 2005, 20-3, before the 21-18 stunner at home to Pittsburgh the previous January.
The Colts still need to bulk up at defensive tackle, and add at least one linebacker to compete for a starting spot and they could use another cornerback. Dungy's defense slipped badly against the run, allowing 157 yards rushing per game, worst in the league. They came into last season with a fast defense, but one that has the smallest defensive front in the league. It should as they were pushed around often, though that did change in the playoffs. The defense continues to be aggressive at the line, but at a cost of allowing opponents to run. Indy gave up 129 yards rushing per game, a whopping 4.78 yards per carry in 2004, and 4.4 yards per carry in 2005. They kept pass rushing specialist Dwight Freeney, which was a great move, but need more bulk up front.
Ohio State DT Quinn Pitcock was taken in the third round, while talented CB Daymeion Hughes (from Cal) was expected to go higher, but Indy got him late in the third round. Indianapolis lost both its starting cornerbacks from 2006, Nick Harper and Jason David, in free agency. Two-year veteran Marlin Jackson is projected to take over at one of the starting cornerback spots. Safety Bob Sanders, 26, is still rehabilitating from surgery performed on his left shoulder just after the 2006 season concluded. Sanders also underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee early last season, limiting him to just four regular-season appearances. He had nearly as many tackles in the postseason (22) as he did during the regular season (27). The defense is built on speed, rather than bulk, so they could still be weak against power running teams again. The cover-2 pass defense was great a year ago (No. 2 in the NFL), while the run defense was 31st. The Colts need to improve at stopping the run, but will still be one of the top teams in the AFC again with this deadly offense and home field edge.
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS in 2006)
The Jaguars went from 12-4 and an AFC power in 2005, to an underachieving 2006 season, blowing the postseason by ending the year 0-3 SU/ATS. As a result, the heat is on conservative Head Coach Jack Del Rio. It was a bizarre season. The Jaguars defense was terrific, ranking second overall while the offense was 10th (third in rushing). They were talented enough to shut out the defending champs 9-0, top the Cowboys 24-17, smack the playoff bound Jets 41-0 and destroy the eventual champion Colts 44-17. They also beat playoff teams Tennessee (37-7) and the NY Giants (26-10). Yet, they were a flop in so many other games, and the defense allowed 24, 24 and 35 points the last three games. They were kind of like the 2005 Chargers - dominant in so many games, but folding up in close ones.
The offense has been plodding, to say the least. Jacksonville averaged 23 points per game and ranked 10th in total offense, but 24th in passing. They like to run behind RB Fred Taylor (1,146 yards, 5.0 yards per carry) and Maurice Jones-Drew (941 yards, 5.7 ypc, 13 TDs). The coaching staff has preferred the conservative West Coast offense and ball control, but Jacksonville hired Dirk Koetter as offensive coordinator, the former Boise State and Arizona State pass-happy coach. Jacksonville was 12-4 "under' the total in 2004, though 10-7 "over" in 2005 and 9-7 "over" last season.
QB Byron Leftwich passed for 1,159 yards, 7 TDs and 5 INTs while battling more injury concerns. Backup QB David Garrard (10 TDs, 9 INTs) played well and ran for 250 yards, but Del Rio announced Leftwich will be the starter for 2007. They have average targets in WR Ernest Wilford and WR Reggie Williams, and a very good weapon in young WR 6'-6" Matt Jones, the former Arkansas quarterback. He used his size and speed to grab 36 catches for 432 yards as a rookie and 41 grabs, 643 yards last season. Jacksonville also signed Dennis Northcutt, who could be a good slot receiver. The offensive line has a new look, as the Jags got Ravens' RT Tony Pashos. That allows Maurice Williams to slide to the left side to compete with Khalif Barnes and helps the overall depth. Offensive tackle Mike Williams was the fourth overall pick in the 2002 NFL Draft. The 6-foot-6, 360 pound Williams was cut by Buffalo in 2006 after four disappointing seasons.
Del Rio, a defensive specialist, has improved the defense immensely. Jacksonville was 6th overall defensively, No. 2 against the run, in 2003; 11th in total defense in 2004 (11th against the run), 6th in total defense in 2005, and No. 2 overall last season (4th against the run). The defense is built around 6'-6", 322-lb Marcus Stroud and mammoth John Henderson up front, both Pro Bowlers, so the run defense should be strong again. Henderson got a six-year extension in 2006. Getting starting MLB Mike Peterson and DE Reggie Hayward back from injury should make this one of the top defenses in the league again. The secondary released SS Donovin Darius but filled a hole with safety Reggie Nelson, a first round pick (21st) from Florida and added free agent cornerback Bruce Thornton, filling Ahmad Carroll's roster spot. Thornton, a fourth-round pick by Dallas in 2004, was out of the league last season after being waived by the Jets last August.
Del Rio has improved the defense, but the offense is still too one-dimensional and conservative. They could improve under OC Koetter, but the overall talent-level of the coaching staff is still a question mark. Because the defense is so good, they will be in many games and only need to open up the offense more to make another run to the postseason. After going 0-8 on the road in 2003, Jacksonville was 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS on the road in 2004 and 6-3 SU/ATS on the road in 2005, but reverted back to that poor road play in 2006, going 2-6 SU/ATS last season. Jacksonville is 14-8-2 ATS their last 24 home games. This is a big season for Del Rio and they have too much talent not to make the playoffs.
Houston Texans (6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS in 2006)
Let's just admit it: The Texans blew it by bypassing Reggie Bush for DE Mario Williams (NC State), a 2006 draft day shocker that didn't get any better when Houston went 6-10 while Bush and New Orleans were in the NFC Championship game. This organization has done a lousy job evaluating talent, as they ranked 28th in total offense and 24 in defense. At least second-year head coach Gary Kubiak isn't sitting still. Houston dumped franchise face QB David Carr and traded for Atlanta backup QB Matt Schaub. The 26-year old Schaub has 6 TDs and 6 INTs in three NFL seasons (only 2 starts), but many feel the 6-foot-5 accurate passer has the stuff to be an everyday leader. He gets his chance, unfortunately behind a lousy offensive line.
Assistant head coach and new offensive coordinator Mike Sherman is putting in a plan for more balance to the offense for this fall. They grabbed OT Brandon Frye (fifth round, Virginia Tech) and OG Kasey Studdard (sixth round, Texas) in the draft. The Texans also addressed their offensive line with the signing of LT Jordan Black (Chiefs). The Texans add running back 30-year old Ahman Green (Packers), who is off a 1,059 yards season. Green should upgrade a running game that finished 21st in rushing. Coach Kubiak spent 11 seasons as offensive coordinator for the Broncos and is trying to get Houston to learn zone blocking that has been so successful in Denver.
Houston took two offensive linemen in the third round in 2006, in Charles Spencer (Pitt) and Winston Justice (Miami) to bolster the line. Former Boise State quarterback rookie Jared Zabransky was signed bolstering backup quarterbacks Sage Rosenfels and Bradlee Van Pelt. The Texans have one wideout ace in WR Andre Johnson (101 catches, 1,147 yards, 5 TDs), but let veteran Eric Moulds (557 yards) leave. They have veteran WR Andre Davis, Kevin Walter and used a third-round pick on a wide receiver from Division II Lane College named Jacoby Jones. Okay...
Defensively, the Texans have a keeper in second-year player MLB DeMeco Ryans, while DE DeMario Williams will only get better. This defense allowed 22.9 points, 122 yards rushing and 215 yards passing (24th in total defense, 20th against the run). A big plus is rookie DT Amobi Okoye from Louisville, a high-energy player who was 10th overall in the draft. Defensively, the Texans signed LB Shawn Barber (Eagles) and added experience and depth with the signing of DT Jeff Zgonina (Dolphins), LB Danny Clark (Raiders) and CB Jamar Fletcher (Lions). In 2003 they drafted CB Dunta Robinson, who has been solid in the secondary. They are certainly not devoid of talent and this young defense is interesting, but it will probably all hinge on the play of new QB Schaub.
Tennessee Titans (8-8 SU, 11-5 ATS in 2006)
The future is here for the Titans, with the arrival of QB Vince Young in 2006. They rebuilt on the fly, from 4-12 in 2005 to an electric 6-0 SU/ATS late run last season that got them within a whisker of the playoffs. Coach Jeff Fisher and offensive coordinator Norm Chow tailored the offense around the versatile Young, simplifying the passing game for the rookie. It was the perfect plan, as Young ran for 552 yards (6.7 yards per carry) and threw for 2,199 yards, 12 TDs, 13 INTs. After inserting Young into the starting lineup, the Titans won eight of their final 11 games (9-2 ATS), just missing a playoff spot.
Center Kevin Mawae was signed away from the NY Jets in 2006 to protect the QB and the Titans ranked 5th in rushing behind Young. However, RB Travis Henry (1,211 yards, 4.5 ypc) left for Denver and WR Drew Bennett (737 yards) jumped to the Rams. Rookie RB Chris Henry (Arizona) was taken in the second round and will complete with disappointing LenDale White. The club has not been happy with White's work habits. 26-year old WR Bobby Wade (461 yards) left for the Vikings, which hurts. WR Justin Gage (Bears) comes over, though he only played in eight games last season. They like fourth year TE Ben Troupe, though Troupe had just 13 catches and 150 yards. The Titans got nothing out of their big free agent signing from 2006, former Patriots WR David Givens, who was injured, and really need him for 2007 but he might not be ready (knee) for the start of the season. The Titans will need WR Brandon Jones to step up in a big way in 2007. Fans had best be patient with this offense, which finished 27th in the NFL in 2006, 30th in passing.
Over the last four seasons this team has lost DE Jevon Kearse, defensive end Kevin Carter, CB Samari Rolle, WR Derrick Mason and QB Steve McNair. The Titans also released right tackle Fred Miller, fullback Robert Holcombe and kicker Joe Nedney. The Titans are getting younger on defense with fourth-year DE Travis LaBoy, DE Antwan Odom and DT Randy Starks. Tennessee was No. 1 defensively against the run in 2003, allowing 3.8 yards per carry, but slipped to 119 yards, 4.5 ypc in 2004 and 22nd against the run in 2005 allowing 4.2 ypc and 118 yards rushing per game.
Last year everything fell apart as the defense was dead last in the league. They allowed 144 yards rushing per game (30th) and allowed over 200 rush yards twice and over 170 yards 5 times. The defense still has tackle Albert Haynesworth up front, DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, and LB Keith Bullock, who has led the team in tackles in each of the last five seasons with 137, 127, 152, 138 and 144. Restricted free-agent Ryan Fowler was signed from the Cowboys and should step into the starting MLB position, forming a decent trio with Bullock and LB David Thornton. Tennessee was 11-3-2 over the total with that weak defense!
The pass defense is also young. Last season the pass defense was 27th in the NFL and that was with cornerback Adam "Pac Man" Jones, who is trying to fight a suspension for 2007, which is devastating to an already poor unit. Cornerback Nick Harper comes over from the Colts and was signed to play opposite Jones. The plan was to allow former starter Reynaldo Hill to be a situational player. However, with Jones' future unclear, Hill might need to move back to his starting role.
General manager Floyd Reese resigned in January and was replaced by Mike Reinfeldt to continue the long rebuilding process. Last year's late run was a fluke, as there are a lot of holes on this young club. Tennessee won 3 games by a field goal, one by one point, and one in OT, plus that miracle comeback against the NY Giants. They won't have a winning season, and the Titans are just 9-15 SU/11-13 ATS at home the last three seasons. A serious step backwards is likely.
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