NFL: AFC North 2007 Preview
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Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8 SU, 7-8-1 ATS in 2006)
A return to greatness? Why not? 2006 was a season of bad luck for the defending champs, lost in a brutal schedule, a sea of turnovers and a slew of close losses. The Steelers went 6-2 SU, 5-3-1 ATS to end the regular season, even winning the finale at Cincinnati in OT to knock the Bengals out of the playoffs. That run showed heart and their overall talent. The biggest change, though, is a big one: Longtime coach Bill Cowher left and 35-year old Mike Tomlin is the new head coach. He had been the defensive coordinator of the Minnesota Vikings. He is just the third coach for the Steelers in 38 years. So while it is a transition year, there is a lot of talent for the new coach to work with.
QB Ben Roethlisberger is off a disappointing season, with 18 TDs and 23 picks. We can give him a pass, as he had a terrible offseason in 2006, with a serious motorcycle accident and then appendectomy surgery prior to Week 1. Perhaps he came back too soon, but he never looked comfortable, which is understandable following traumas like he experienced. Roethlisberger stepped in as a rookie in 2004 and went 15-1 helping the Black and Gold to the AFC Championship game. In 2005, the team goes 15-5 and wins the Super Bowl, the 5th in franchise history. The knock on Bill Cowher by some was that his teams always stumbled in the big game, but perhaps those teams only fell short because they lacked a quarterback. After all, Cowher was stuck with guys like Neil O'Donnell, Kordell Stewart and Tommy Maddox until getting blessed with Big Ben.
Roethlisberger completed 66% of his passes for 2,621 yards, 17 TDs, 11 INTs as a rookie, then threw 17 TDs with 9 picks leading the team to the title in 2005. Big Ben had a poor Super Bowl, but he was magnificent against Indy and Denver in the playoffs - both on the road. Big Ben is still 34-11 as a starter. They still have a power offensive line and good RB depth. C Jeff Hartings retired, and free-agent acquisition comes over from Tampa Bay in guard/center Sean Mahan. Mahan has primarily played guard but is a bright player who should be a better fit at center.
Speedy RB Willie Parker (1,202 yards, 4.7 ypc and 1,494 yards the last two years) has emerged as a great find. The Steelers re-signed Najeh Davenport, who is a good No. 2 running back. The Steelers re-signed running back Verron Haynes to a one-year contract and add Kevan Barlow, a former Pitt running back who was cut by the New York Jets in February. Haynes, a fifth-round draft pick in 2002, played seven games in 2006 before hurting his knee against Oakland on Oct. 29. Haynes rushed for 738 yards and three touchdowns on 174 carries in 60 games for the Steelers.
That ground game takes the pressure off the young QB, which has been a huge plus. Pittsburgh was 24th in passing, 5th in rushing in 2005, though the offense was aggressive passing-wise in the playoffs on the way to the title. Bruce Arians, the new offensive coordinator at Pittsburgh under Mike Tomlin, has thrown out the playbook used by Ken Whisenhunt, who was hired as Arizona's head coach. The new playbook will be smaller and easier for the players to understand, especially Roethlisberger. The old playbook was installed by Ron Erhardt in 1992. He was the first offensive coordinator under Bill Cowher. When Cowher changed coordinators through the years, the new guys kept the playbook but added some of their wrinkles.
Pittsburgh still has a solid collection of speedy wideouts in WR Hines Ward (975 yards, 6 TDs, 74 catches) and Cedrick Wilson, whom they like. They drafted Ohio State speedster Santonio Holmes in the first round in 2006 (moving up) and he was terrific as a rookie with 824 yards. This season they add rookie WR Dallas Baker (Florida). TE Heath Miller was a rookie in 2005, but was a huge upgrade to the offense, with 459 yards, third on the team, and 393 yards in 2006.
The champion defense was terrific in 2005, allowing just 87 rush yards per game, 3.6 ypc, third in the NFL. The Steelers allowed 19 points per game at home and 13 ppg on the road. Last season the defense was 9th overall and third against the run. They have a strong front line led by DT Casey Hampton, Pro Bowler DE Aaron Smith and DT Travis Kirschke, with a tough group of linebackers behind James Farrior and Larry Foote. Safety Troy Polamula has played well and anchors a young secondary that was 20th against the pass in 2006. Newcomer special-teams player Tyrone Carter can also can play both safety spots. Young corners Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden did not play as well last season as they did in 2005.
As of now the defense will primarily be a 3-4 under holdover defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, who likes an attacking defense, but Tomlin has a 4-3 background. They lost LB Joey Porter but did great in the draft with Florida State LB Lawrence Timmons (15th overall pick) and Michigan LB LaMarr Woodley (second round, 46th overall). There is plenty of talent on this team. The Steelers have loads of speed on offense and a rough, tough defense. They should bounce back to being one of the top teams in the AFC again. Pittsburgh is an incredible 18-8 SU, 16-10 ATS on the road the last three years!
Baltimore Ravens (13-4 SU, 10-7 ATS in 2006)
On the plus side, the Ravens went from 6-10 to a 13-3 regular season last year, behind a once-again dominant defense (No. 1 overall). On the down side, the offense was exposed in the playoffs, a 15-6 home loss to the Colts, and this remains an aging team. With a team devoid of skill position speed, in 2006 the Ravens took a nose tackle and a center with their first two picks in the draft, which shows how many holes they had to repair. They did the same thing in the 2007 draft, taking offensive linemen with 2 of their first 3 picks.
HC Brian Billick, 53, is going into his ninth season, which is tied for the third-longest tenure in the NFL. Entering this season on the hot seat, he turned a 6-10 team in 2005 to a 13-3 one this season, earning the highest playoff seed (No. 2) in team history. But the Ravens flopped in the postseason, losing to the Indianapolis Colts, 15-6, in an AFC divisional game. It was the third straight postseason loss for Billick, who has one playoff victory since winning the Super Bowl in January 2001. Billick, who has a 75-53 regular-season record with the Ravens, became Baltimore's winningest NFL coach, surpassing Don Shula. Billick promoted Rick Neuheisel to offensive coordinator, but decided to continue calling the plays.
Another thing to keep in mind is that this team has been outstanding at home, but weak on the road. Last season the Ravens were 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS at home, which puts them at 26-8 SU, 20-12-2 ATS at home since 2003 and 45-16 SU, 35-21-3 ATS at home since their Super Bowl season of 2000. In 2005, at home the Ravens were 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS where the defense allowed 13 points. On the road, the defense allowed 24 ppg where they went 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS. In 2004, at home the Ravens were 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS where the offense averaged 28 points. On the road, the offense averaged just 12 ppg (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS). Baltimore was 7-1 "over" the total at home, 7-1 "under" the total on the road in 2004. They were 11-5 under the total overall in 2005. This is nothing new. The Ravens in 2003 were 7-2 SU, 4-3-2 ATS in Baltimore where they outscored opponents by more than 10 points per game (26.9 - 15.9 average), but on the road the Ravens were 2-4 SU, 4-4 ATS where the defense allowed close to 20 ppg.
Regardless of some of the flaws, this is still a talented team with a monster defense that is capable of beating anyone. The offense has been one-dimensional and got a boost last season from veteran QB 34-year old Steve McNair (3,050 yards, 63.0% completions, 16 TDs, 12 picks). He was steady, but has lost a step and didn't have much wideout speed to work with. And the offense was totally shut down by the Colts in the playoffs. Grabbing Ohio State QB Troy Smith in the 5th round was a good move, a smart, mobile QB like McNair. The Ravens struggled in their third through sixth games, leading Billick to fire Jim Fassel as offensive coordinator. They averaged 24.8 points over the next nine games, restoring Billick's reputation as a play-caller. But the Ravens' offense finished the season by failing to score a touchdown in its last two games, a drought of 23 drives.
McNair still doesn't have a lot of skill position speed to throw to. WR Derrick Mason was a welcome addition in 2005 with 86 grabs for 1,073 yards, and last fall had 765 yards. WR Mark Clayton stepped up and led the team with 939 yards, while TE Todd Heap (73, 765 yards, 6 TDs) continues to produce. The Ravens took a shot with speedy WR Demetrius Williams in the 2005 draft, from Washington, and he had 396 yards as a rookie, leading the team with 18 yards per catch. RB Jamal Lewis was let go and the Ravens bring in younger 25-year old RB Willis McGahee from the Bills, who had 990 yards, though just 3.8 ypc. In fact, he only topped 100 yards twice last season (both times against the Jets). Newcomer Oklahoma guard Ben Grubbs (1st round) adds depth to an aging offensive line.
The Ravens' defense maintained the tradition of excellence, recording two shutouts and holding teams to a league-low 12.6 points per game. Baltimore has had its share of losses recently in free agency, but none was bigger than LB Adalius Thomas, who had 11 sacks in 2006. The defense was tough (No. 1 in the NFL), allowing 77 yards rushing per game (No. 2) allowing just 3.3 yards per carry, and the pass 'D' was No. 6. They grabbed 6-foot-4, 337-pound defensive tackle Haloti Ngata out of Oregon in the first round in 2006 to get younger up front, so MLB Ray Lewis can roam more, which he is best at. Third-year defensive coordinator Rex Ryan switched to a 4-3 alignment from the 3-4 set the team has used for the past several years and they were even better in 2006.
DE Terrell Suggs is a strong young player, after being the 10th pick in the 2003 draft. Safety Ed Reed anchors a strong secondary, though Cornerback Samari Rolle is beginning to show his age. LB Ray Lewis is a force along the line and they also got youth with DE Dan Cody in the 2005 draft (Oklahoma). Like the last few years, the defense looks great, but they still appear to be a conservative, run-oriented offense. Note that Baltimore is 25-4 SU/19-8-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2003!
Cincinnati Bengals (8-8 SU, 8-7-1 ATS in 2006)
Cincy deserves a solid grade of 'D'. As in disappointing, delinquents, defenseless. Perhaps the offseason headline that sums up the Bengals season was "No jail time for Rucker." A talented team, especially on offense, stumbled from 11-5 in 2005 to an 8-8 season missing the playoffs. Character issues and a soft defense were their undoing. They hope to tighten up a soft defense with cornerback Leon Hall, the No. 18 overall pick from Michigan, but didn't do much to shore up a poor run defense.
This team started 3-0 SU/ATS last fall and players were trash talking about how good there were. The lack of discipline and defense was obvious as opponents ran over them, losing 5 of the next 6. A season ending loss at home in OT to Pittsburgh ended any playoff hopes, too, summing up a frustrating season of missed opportunities. They still have been going in a better direction under coach Marvin Lewis than in the 1990s, when they were the perennial NFL doormat. The bungling Bengals went from 2-14 to 8-8 under first-year head coach Marvin Lewis in 2003, narrowly missing the playoffs because of a 0-2 finish. In 2004 they went 8-8 again, but ended the year on a 7-4 SU/ATS run, and carried that over with an 11-5 2005 season and a playoff berth.
Lewis won a Super Bowl seven years ago as the defensive coordinator of the dominant Ravens' 'D'. The offense is actually the strength of the team, despite Lewis's defensive background. QB Carson Palmer completed 62% of his passes with 28 TDs and 13 INTs for 4,035 yards. He bounced back brilliantly from a playoff knee injury against the Steelers. The passing game was productive because Palmer has a slew of talented wideouts. WR Chad Johnson (87 grabs, 1,369 yards, 7 TDs) has stepped up as the ace of this deep receiving corps and has had 3 straight 1,000+ yard seasons while WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh grabbed 90 catches for 1,081 yards and 7 TDs. WR Chris Henry (36 grabs, 605 yards) has talent, but is a screw-up off the field: Arrested four times since December 2005, Henry has been suspended for the first eight games of this season for violating the NFL's conduct policies and failed a drug test.
The running game is also young and deep, with workhorse RB Rudi Johnson (1,309 yards, 12 TDs, 3.8 yds per carry), nearly identical numbers from 2004 and 2005. Rookie RB Kenny Irons was taken in the second round from Auburn, but he is lost for this season with an Achilles injury. Tight end Reggie Kelly is one of the better blockers in the NFL at his position and the Bengals brought back No. 3 running back Kenny Watson, who catches the ball well out of the backfield. They added former Arizona center Alex Stepanovich to help the O-Line. The offense is multi-dimensional and should be very productive again. The offense averaged 3.7 yards rushing per game, 101 yards per game, and 239 passing each contest. That was 8th overall in the NFL (6th in passing).
The Bengals still have work to do on defense. They gave up 117 yards rushing and 221 yards passing per game in 2005, ranking 28th in total defense, 27th against the pass, and 31st in total defense last season. That's why their 2005 draft went to the defense, grabbing South Carolina CB Jonathon Joseph and DE Frostee Rucker (USC). The 2006 run defense gave up 4.2 yards per carry, and they were 32nd in the league against the pass, which is why they grabbed Michigan CB Hall in the first round. Defensive tackle Sam Adams was let go as he didn't help much against the run.
Cincy put the franchise tag on defensive end Justin Smith, although Smith eats up $8.6 million in salary, which is odd as he's a defensive end who has never registered double-digit sacks in a season. They also signed defensive end Robert Geathers, who had 10.5 sacks last season, to a long-term deal. Linebacker is a problem they've had because of injuries. Johnathan Joseph played well last season, but this team does not have much depth in the secondary, which is why they grabbed Hall in the first round. Safeties Dexter Jackson and Madieu Williams have been inconsistent in run support.
The Bengals are moving in the right direction, but took a step backward last fall. The Bengals still have some troubled characters in the locker room and lost 3 excellent leaders. Left guard Eric Steinbach went to Cleveland and was versatile. Linebacker Brian Simmons was cut, and safety Kevin Kaesviharn went to New Orleans (he had six interceptions last season and was responsible for getting everyone in the front seven lined up). The departure of defensive tackle Shaun Smith (Cleveland), No. 4 receiver Kelley Washington (New England) and cornerback Tory James weakened the depth.
Lewis has had several important impacts. In 2002 Cincy had a miserable minus-16 turnover ratio, but in 2003 they were +2. In 2004 the Bengals were +4 and in 2005 Cincy was an incredible +22 in TO margin, with a ball-hawking style, and +7 in 2006. But the team character issues are still a concern. Note that Cincy is 21-6 SU, 15-11 ATS as a favorite since 2004, but 6-16 SU, 8-13-1 ATS as an underdog. Cincy had not had a winning season since 1990 before 2005. With the team heading in the right direction, they should be a factor in the AFC with that offense but didn't have a very good offseason.
Cleveland Browns (4-12 SU, 7-8-1 ATS in 2006)
A last roundup? Not for the Browns, but for GM Phil Savage and head coach Romeo Crennel. The two appear to be feeling the heat in Cleveland and their actions seem to suggest they are on the hotseat. Cleveland went wild this offseason, trading for RB Jamel Lewis, upgrading the offensive line with Wisconsin's Joe Thomas (the No. 2 pick in the draft), then trading for QB Brady Quinn when he fell to No. 22. They gave up a lot to get him - their 2008 first round pick. So the future is now for Crennel and the Browns, it appears.
The Browns ranked 31st out of 32 teams running the ball in 2006. The Browns' offensive line has been a problem for years. The key position is the left tackle. Since returning in 1999, the following have been the main starters: Lomas Brown (1999), Roman Oben (2000), Ross Verba (2001-2002), Barry Stokes (2003), Verba (2004), L.J. Shelton (2005) and Kevin Shaffer (2006). Savage said, "Our offensive line was in much worse shape than our quarterback position. If we could fix the line, that will help us run the ball better. If we run better, we probably will pass better. If we run and pass better, that should help the defense defend the run because they won't be on the field as much." So they might try to be a ball control offense this fall.
Thomas certainly upgrades the O-line, while they hope RB Jamal Lewis can bounce back to his 2003 form when he had 2,066 rushing yards, 5.3 yards per carry and 14 TDs with Baltimore. He carried the load and got Baltimore to the AFC North division title that season. He had 906 yards in 2005 and ran for 1,132 yards last fall, though just 3.6 yards per carry. They made another major move signing free agent Eric Steinbach to play left guard. They have had some conversations about moving Ryan Tucker from tackle to right guard, and playing young Kevin Shaffer at right tackle.
The Browns believe that veteran Seth McKinney can start at guard, assuming he's fully recovered from the neck injury that sidelined him last year. They say Isaac Sowells (fourth-rounder, 2006) has made progress and is also in the picture. McKinney also can backup center Hank Fraley. Center LeCharles Bentley, whose first season with Cleveland ended with a freakish knee injury last summer, also hopes to be ready to play for the Browns this season.
Mobile QB Charlie Frye (10 TDs, 17 picks in 2006) hasn't been the answer, so look for Quinn to be thrown into the fire quickly. The Browns believe that new offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski can suit an offense to help Frye and nurture Quinn. Some real good news for the offense is that two recent No. 1 draft picks get to boost the offense along with Quinn in TE Kellen Winslow and former Michigan WR Braylon Edwards. Winslow had 875 yards while Edwards had 884 and 6 TDs last season, both leading the team. Edwards was the No. 3 overall pick in 2005 but missed more than half the season with an injury. He had 512 yards as a rookie. On paper, this offense looks balanced and strong, although it all depends on Quinn. He ran a pro-style offense at Notre Dame, but is still an NFL rookie.
While the offense looks much better, the defense has been awful. The Browns ranked 29th out of 32 teams in stopping the run last fall. In 2005 Cleveland was 30th in the NFL at defending the run, allowing 137.6 rush yards, 4.2 yards per carry, and 142 yards per game last season. The defense has been atrocious against the run the last three seasons. Crennel switched Cleveland's defensive scheme to a 3-4, making linebackers an important commodity. That's why their first two picks in the 2006 draft were LB Kamerion Wimbley (Florida State) and LB D'Qwell Jackson (Maryland). They also have veterans like DE Willie McGinest, who reunited with Crennel in Cleveland after spending 12 years in New England.
The Browns also still have veteran nose tackle Ted Washington up front, but he needs help. The 15-year veteran -- 6-foot-5 and 365 pounds - was released by the Oakland Raiders in 2006 for salary-cap reasons. He also has played with San Francisco, Denver, Buffalo, Chicago and spent a season with Browns coach Romeo Crennel in New England. Washington, a four-time Pro Bowl pick who is 39, used to be one of the league's premier run-stuffers. The Browns add 6-4, 314-pound Robaire Smith and 6-2, 325-pound Shaun Smith (Bengals) two bolster the defensive line. Smith will likely be used as an end opposite Orpheus Roye and could move inside to tackle on passing downs. Shaun Smith was a backup with the Bengals who will likely play nose tackle.
Former UNLV cornerback Eric Wright was grabbed in the second round, a questionable selection. The Browns' biggest concern about Wright is he has not played that much college football. He was a redshirt freshman at USC, where he started four games. Then he transferred to UNLV, sat out a year, played nine games -- missing three with a knee injury. So that's 13 college starts.
Safety Mike Adams signed a two-year contract with the Browns, adding some depth to their secondary. Adams had 67 tackles in 16 games with the San Francisco 49ers last season, including eight starts. He had 139 tackles and five interceptions in three seasons with the 49ers, who signed him as an undrafted rookie free agent out of Delaware. He likely will back up Sean Jones and Brodney Pool in the secondary, which was hurt by injuries last season. The Browns are 5-3 SU/ATS as a favorite the last two seasons, but 5-19 SU, 10-13 ATS as a dog. Still, they allowed just 18.8 ppg in 2005, going 11-4-1 under the total, and 22 ppg in 2006 going 9-6 "under" the total. That's 20-10-1 under the total the last two years!
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