NFL: AFC East 2007 Preview
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New England Patriots (14-5 SU, 11-8 ATS in 2006)
It was a strange season for the Patriots, and a magnificent offseason. New England struggled in 2006 with the departure of its best wideouts and a lack of depth on defense, yet made it to the AFC Championship game. That game exposed their weaknesses, blowing a 21-3 lead in a last second 38-34 loss at Indianapolis. They were depleted because of injuries and burnt out after a fortunate comeback win at 14-2 San Diego the previous week, 24-21, and really were outplayed by the Colts from the second quarter on. The team is also dealing with an offseason tragedy with the death of 24-year old DE Marquise Hill, a backup who was involved in a water accident in May. This team won three of the four Super Bowls from 2001-2004 (compiling a 34-4 record in 2003 and 2004) and loaded up this offseason in an attempt to get back to that level.
QB Tom Brady led the NFL in passing in 2005, but had an up and down 2006 because of new wideouts like Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gafney. Both were plucked off the scrap heap because of the free agent loss of David Givens and holdout (and eventual trade) of Deion Branch, Brady's favorite target. New England finished 11th in total offense in 2006 and 12th in passing, as Brady passed for 3,529 yards, 24 TDs, 12 picks. Caldwell (760 yards) and Gafney are back, but they will not be the main guns because the Pats loaded up on wideout talent. 26-year old WR Dante Stallworth is a No. 1 deep threat and comes over from the Eagles, after catching 38 passes for 725 years. He had a great postseason, and had 3 catches for 100 yards in the playoff loss to New Orleans. He gives Brady a speed-burner he didn't have last fall.
30-year old Randy Moss came over from the Raiders in a stunning draft day deal for a 4th round pick. Moss has character questions and is a 9-year veteran, but at 6-foot-4 offers Brady another kind of top-notch wideout talent he's never had. The story is that Moss, through an intermediary, had someone contact Bill Belichick a year ago, saying he was interested in playing for him. So the deal to acquire Moss didn't happen overnight, as at first appeared. The likelihood is that Moss will be motivated and conform to the Pats' veteran locker room with no trouble, otherwise he'll be out. Remember that in 2001 Belichick cut malcontent All-Pro WR Terry Glenn in midseason, then a few months later won the Super Bowl. Team comes before the individual. Another interesting move was trading two draft picks (their second-and seventh-round picks) to Miami for 5-foot-8 Wes Welker. The Patriots like smaller receivers who are quick out of breaks and Welker fills that bill.
They also add 27-year old WR Kelley Washington for depth, because last year's second round pick (Florida speedster WR Chad Jackson) was a bust and suffered a knee injury in the playoffs that will likely shelve him for most of 2007. Tight end Kyle Brady replaces departed Daniel Graham as a blocker, while TE Ben Watson is a budding young star who had 643 yards and 49 catches. Last year's rookie tight ends David Thomas and Garrett Mills were good role players. This is still a talented, balanced, versatile team. QB Tom Brady has two Super Bowl MVPs under his belt, and three Super Bowl rings. In 2003, Brady passed for 3,620 yards and 23 TDs leading an offense that ranked 9th passing. In 2004, Brady passed for 3,692 yards with 28 TDs, 14 picks while completing 60% of his passes. In 2005, Brady had little running game, so he was forced to lead the NFL with 4,110 yards rushing, 26 TDs, 14 INTs. He is a steady leader, a great decision-maker, who makes this offense go. All in all, this passing game is loaded.
In the 2006 draft they upgraded the offense with Minnesota RB Laurence Maroney, who had a fine rookie season (745 yards, 4.3 ypc) before a rib injury slowed him down late in the season. He had only 18 total yards in the final two playoff games against the Chargers and Colts. They let go of Corey Dillon, who was showing his age, so a concern is not to overwork the young Maroney. Newcomer Halfback Sammy Morris is a good role player for the offense, teaming with pass-catching specialist RB Kevin Faulk. The offensive line suffered tons of injuries in 2005, which forced rookies first round pick Logan Mankins (Fresno State) and Nick Kaczur to play a lot. All that experience helped in 2006 as the unit was solid in pass blocking and in the ground game. Center Dan Koppen and Matt Light anchor a deep line, along with massive 2006 rookie Ryan O'Callaghan (Cal).
The defense led the way to 3 Super Bowl titles, and had a fine 2006 ranking 5th overall and 5th against the run. They were outstanding up front against the run, and the secondary ranked 12th, a huge upgrade over 2005 when the secondary was a mess, ranking 31st against the pass. After giving up 16 ppg in 2004, they allowed 20 per game in 2005, but just 16 ppg in 2006. The defensive front features three No. 1 draft picks, in star Richard Seymour, NT Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren. Their jobs are to stuff the gaps to let the linebackers come in and make the plays. The trio gets it done and is still talented enough to put pressure on the quarterback.
The starting linebackers are loaded, though aging a bit, in Tedy Bruschi, Roosevelt Colvin, and Mike Vrabel. They added the biggest offseason free agent in 29-year old linebacker Adalius Thomas (Ravens). He probably won't have as many sacks or tackles as he had in Baltimore, but will be a great weapon for brilliant Bill Belichick. He has the speed to attack the QB or drop back and cover tight ends, something that was a huge problem in the playoff loss to the Colts. One concern is that there is little depth behind a four veteran starters DE Jarvis Green provides some outside youth and depth. The team also dealt with the tragic death of backup defensive end Marquise Hill in May.
The Patriots re-signed 12-time Pro Bowl linebacker Junior Seau. Seau, 38, played well before missing the final five games with a broken right forearm. He ranked fifth on the team with 69 tackles. Seau paired with Tedy Bruschi in the middle of the team's 3-4 defense.
The secondary has suffered key injuries the last three years, and while it didn't hurt in 2004, it killed them the last two seasons. Duane Starks was a 2005 bust and veteran safety Rodney Harrison has missed most of the last two seasons because of knee injuries. The Patriots addressed some of those concerns by drafting Miami safety Brandon Meriweather with the 24th overall pick (from Seattle in the Branch trade). Young CB Ellis Hobbs has stepped up and filled the void, and teams with outstanding CB Asante Samuel (10 picks), off a career year, though Samuel wants a new contract and has threatened to hold out the first 10 games.
Safety Eugene Wilson and Harrison look to bounce back from injury-marred seasons, as does CB Randall Gay. 33-year old CB Tory James was a good acquisition to add depth. Veteran defensive back Artrell Hawkins is a good hitter, though a bit weak in coverage. Defensive back Chad Scott, 32, was added, but will miss the upcoming season because of a knee injury in July. Rookie fourth-round pick Stephen Gostkowski has a strong leg and played well, replacing two-time Super Bowl hero Adam Vinatieri. With a great young QB, a great coaching staff, great run stuffers, team-oriented players, and newcomers like Moss and Stallworth, this team could make another run at the title game. They have a remarkable home-field edge, too, going 31-6 SU and 22-14 ATS in the regular season at home from 2003-06.
They have had an impressive six-year run under Belichick. 5-11 in his first year, followed by teams that remarkably overachieved, including three Super Bowl champions. The Pats have established themselves as a model organization, with innovative game plans, a QB who is 12-2 in postseason, and a mixture of hungry, team-oriented players. The Patriots have gone 17-2 SU, 14-4-1 ATS in 2003, 17-2 SU, 13-5 ATS in 2004, 11-7 in 2005 and 14-5 SU, 11-8 ATS last season, a sizzling 47-26-1 four-year spread mark. Unless something happens to Brady, chalk up another AFC East title and a potential return to the AFC title game.
New York Jets (10-7 SU, 11-6 ATS in 2006)
Young Eric can coach! The Jets sputtered through a 4-12 2005 season, then brought in Eric Mangini last season, who stunned most observers with a 10-6 SU/11-5 ATS regular season and a playoff berth. They had a lot of holes, too, ranking 25th in total offense and 20th in total defense, yet played hard for the new coach. Mangini was hired after being defensive coordinator in New England for just one season under Bill Belichick. Mangini is only 36 and the team had a great offseason.
The Jets stole RB Thomas Jones from the Bears and he upgrades a ground game that ranked 20th and averaged a poor 3.5 yards per carry. That will take the pressure of QB Chad Pennington, who was solid with 3,352 yards, 64.5%, 17 TDs and 16 picks. He should be better in Year 2 of offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer's system. Former New England WR coach Brian Daboll comes aboard, too, which will only fuel the Jets/Patriots, Mangini/Belichick rivalry. The Jets also added FB Darian Barnes (Dolphins), QB Marques Tuiasosopo (Raiders), and re-signed RT Anthony Clement. Tuiasosopo will compete with second-year player Kellen Clemens in training camp for the No. 2 spot behind Pennington
Thomas is a strong runner, an upgrade over RB Leon Washington (650 yards). The Jets have speedy WR Laverneus Coles (1,098 yards), as Coles led the team with 91 receptions. They re-signed tight end Chris Baker (300 yards), and 24-year old WR Jerricho Cotchery was strong with 961 yards. Former Missouri QB Brad Smith should add depth and speed at wideout, and running back Leon Washington has been effective as a receiver out of the backfield. Mangini made major changes to the offensive and defensive lines in 2006. The Jets got their man when they selected Virginia tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson with the No. 4 pick in the 2006 NFL Draft. They also took Ohio State center Nick Mangold in the first-round, with selection No. 29, so the line is in excellent shape.
The defense moved to the 3-4 under Mangini and took a while to adapt, but got better as the season went along. Up front, DT Dwayne Robertson improved under Mangini. The Jets traded up for the No. 4 pick overall in 2002, taking Robertson (Kentucky). Defensively, the Jets added DE Kenyon Coleman (Cowboys), who is a versatile player who fits their 3-4 scheme. Rookie linebacker David Harris comes over (Michigan) while the secondary picked up what they really needed, a top-notch corner, with Pitt CB Darrelle Revis (No. 14 overall).
The Jets bolstered their defensive line by signing defensive end Eric Hicks, a free agent who spent his first nine seasons with the Kansas City Chiefs. Hicks, 31, ranks fifth on the Chiefs' career sacks list with 40.5, including a career-high 14 in 2000. The Jets have been busy renovating their defensive line this offseason, signing defensive ends David Bowens, Kenyon Coleman, Andre Wadsworth and Michael Haynes. Special teams is strong, with former Ohio State kicker Mike Nugent. They are 30-to-1 to win the Super Bowl and appear headed in the right direction under the fiery, focused and serious Mangini.
Buffalo Bills (7-9 SU, 10-6 ATS in 2006)
Dick Jauron begins his second season as head coach. Buffalo has made a lot of moves the last two years, getting younger by jettisoning veteran players and saving salary cap space. Two years ago the defense lost NT Sam Adams and Safety Lawyer Milloy, released because of cap concerns, and this offseason they lost ace cornerback Nate Clements to the 49ers. Former first round pick Willis McGahee was traded to Baltimore, and the defense also lost LB London Fletcher (Washington) and Takeo Spikes (Philadelphia).
So what's left? A younger team that overachieved at times in 2006, but still finished 30th in total offense and 19th in total defense (28th against the run). That means the defense has finished 28th and 29th against the run the last two seasons. The defense is still in rebuilding mode. One of the biggest surprises of the 2006 NFL Draft was when the Bills selected Ohio State safety Donte Whitner with the No. 8 pick in the draft. Whitner upgraded a Buffalo secondary that ranked 7th against the pass. He brings a physical presence to the Buffalo secondary, though stopping the run should be a greater concern. The secondary also has former Ohio State cornerback Ashton Youboty and South Carolina safety Ko Simpson. Cornerback Jason Webster, 29, was added after spending the previous three seasons with the Falcons. He played in eight games with seven
starts last season, registering 47 tackles and two interceptions.
Buffalo also surprised by taking N.C. State defensive tackle John McCargo in the 2006 draft, who wasn't expected to go that high. Rookie LB Paul Posluszny (Penn State) was nabbed in Round 2 this year, and defensive tackle Manny Wright was signed as a free agent plus they traded for DT Darwin Walker to help the poor run defense. The Bills traded linebacker Takeo Spikes and quarterback Kelly Holcomb to the Philadelphia Eagles for defensive tackle Darwin Walker and a conditional draft pick in 2008. Walker started 15 games and was tied for second on the Eagles with six sacks, and had 56 tackles. Overall there are a lot of young faces on the 'D'. Buffalo is 25-18 OVER the total its last 43 games. There is a lot of work to do.
The passing offense ranked 29th in 2005 and 28th in 2006. QB J.P. Losman (19 TDs, 14 INTs) was given the green light to throw more as the 2006 season went along, and he played better, with 3,051 yards and 62.5% completions. It was interesting that they drafted rookie QB Trent Edwards out of Stanford with a relatively high pick (third round). With McGahee gone, the Bills drafted RB Marshawn Lynch of Cal in the first round. The NFL prototype for running back is 5-11, 215 pounds with 4.4 speed. Marshawn Lynch fits the prototype to a tee at 5-11, 215 with 4.48 speed, so the Bills appear to have a decent one.
The offensive line has holes in it, and they didn't address that need in the draft. The Bills were the first team on the free-agency board with the addition of C Jason Whittle. Whittle is a versatile lineman and they add former Washington G Derrick Dockery and Oakland RT Langston Walker. In 2004, Buffalo QBs were sacked 38 times, which was a significant improvement over 2003 when Buffalo QBs were sacked 51 times, and Drew Bledsoe was sacked 53 times in 2002. Last season Losman was sacked 47 times. This O-line still has concerns.
Young WRs Josh Reed (410 yards) and Lee Evans (1,292 yards) stepped in, with Evans blossoming as a serious deep threat. Reed was Buffalo's second top receiver last year, with 34 catches for 410 yards and no touchdowns. He's been a bust overall. They hope young WR Roscoe Parrish can step up, and provide something better than what disappointing Peerless Price has done. Buffalo was competitive at home the last two seasons at 8-8 Su/9-7 ATS, but on the road they've really struggled going 4-12 SU, 8-8 ATS. The Bills have gone 38-58 since 2001, just above Cleveland for the fourth worst record in the NFL over that span. Buffalo has failed to make the playoffs for seven consecutive season and 2007 will be No. 8 in a row as they continue to rebuild.
Miami Dolphins (6-10 SU, 6-10 ATS in 2006)
The good news is coach Nick Saban is gone after a disappointing two-year run. Head coach Cam Cameron takes over after being offensive coordinator in San Diego. The bad news was on draft day, with Cameron announcing to a crowd of Dolphin fans their No. 1 pick, Ohio State WR Ted Ginn. The crowd booed mercilessly. Welcome to South Florida, coach, where fans take their football seriously! A problem for Cameron is that Saban left the franchise worse than when he arrived. Saban chose QB Daunte Culpepper over Drew Brees, which turned out to be a disaster. He is in for a rebuilding project and note that Miami is 18-14 ATS on the road the last four seasons, yet 16-16 SU and 9-23 ATS at home!
The new coach also has a new quarterback. Culpepper has battled serious knee problems the last two seasons and is out. Miami gave up a fifth round pick to the Chiefs for 36-year-old Trent Green. He missed eight games last season because of a concussion and didn't play well when he returned, particularly in the playoff loss to Indy. He's certainly not a long term answer. QB Cleo Lemon is in the mix as a backup, while rookie John Beck (BYU) was taken in the second round. WRs Chris Chambers (59 catches, 667 yards) had 1,118 yards in 2005 and Marty Booker (55, 747 yards) are average receivers, so they add the Ohio State speedster. Ginn will help the special teams game, but still wasn't a polished receiver in college. Veteran Az-Zahir Hakim was added, but he hasn't been productive of late. Newcomer TE David Martin has good hands but is not a good blocker, and that won't help an already weak O-line.
Saban upgraded the running game in 2005 with No. 2 pick in the draft, grabbing Auburn workhorse Ronnie Brown. Brown can plow up the middle, has the speed to get outside, and has great hands. He struggled early on as a rookie, but last season finished with 1,008 rush yards, 4.2 ypc, and caught 33 passes for 276 yards. Newcomer Cory Schlesinger is a good lead blocker, while rookie RB Lorenzo Booker was added (Florida State). Rookie center Samson Satele (Hawaii, second round) was a questionable high draft pick and Miami still has holes on the offensive line. Jay Feely will replace Olindo Mare as the Dolphins' kicker, which is an upgrade. Miami ranked 22nd overall in rushing offense in 2006.
The defense still has veterans Zach Thomas, Defensive Player of the Year Jason Taylor and DE Vonnie Holliday, a unit that ranked 4th in the NFL in total defense. Miami re-signed veteran NT Keith Traylor, who provides bulk and power in the middle of the defense, and adds LB Joey Porter. The Dolphins overpaid for Porter, as he is declining as a pass-rusher, but he still will be an aggressive addition against the run. Longtime starter DE Kevin Carter was released and will be missed, and with the loss of Jeff Zgonina, it leaves the Dolphins thin up front. The secondary was 12th against the pass last fall, with the addition of then-rookie safety/cornerback Jason Allen, the No. 16 pick in the 2006 NFL Draft.
The Miami Dolphins claimed third-year veteran cornerback Derrick Johnson on waivers, hoping he will provide some depth. After going 7-1 SU at home in each of the 2001 and 2002 seasons, Miami has slipped at home the last three seasons (16-16 SU, 9-23 ATS). Miami was 10-6 under the total last fall with a strong defense and a lousy offense. They come into the new season rebuilding, without a proven QB, and a new coach who was booed by fans on draft day. Don't expect the Dolphins to give the Jets and Pats a run in the tough AFC East.
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