NCAAF: College Football Top 40
|
40. South Florida:
The South Florida Bulls are a fine program under Head Coach Jim Leavitt, off a 9-4 SU, 8-4 ATS season. They upset West Virginia 24-19 (on the road), and 9 starters return on both sides of the ball. Greg Gregory has been promoted to offensive coordinator and he will continue the uptempo, sometimes no-huddle, spread offense. This team averaged 144 yards rushing, 217 passing and 23 points.
Sophomore QB Matt Grothe electrified the offense as a freshman, completing 63% of his passes for 15 TDs, 14 picks, 2,576 yards, while rushing for 622 yards. Keep an eye on 6-foot-3 junior WR Amp Hill, a former transfer from LSU. The defense is loaded, allowing just 16.9 ppg. South Florida is 17-5 under the total the last 22 games and 9-2 SU, 8-2 ATS at home the last two years. This is a program on the rise.
39. Kansas:
The Jayhawks (6-6) failed to make a bowl after getting flattened 42-17 at Missouri in the finale. With 6 starters back on offense and 7 on defense, coach Mark Mangino appears to have enough pieces in place for a better season. The Jayhawks were all about running the football (176 yards rushing per game), and the defense was blitz happy, taking away the run but allowing too much single coverage downfield. The result was 274 passing yards allowed per contest, and 28 ppg in Big 12 play.
Sophomore QB Kerry Meier (13 TDs, 10 INTs) is back as well as his top targets. The mobile Meier was the second leading rusher with 344 yards. The defensive line has its run-stuffers back, led by senior DT James McLinton and junior DT Todd Hasellhorst. They allowed just 3.5 yards per rush. Three starters return to the secondary, including All-Big 12 junior CB Aqib Talib. Kansas is 11-3 SU, 7-5 ATS at home the last two seasons, but 2-8 SU on the road.
38. Rutgers:
The up-and-coming young Knights went 11-2 SU, 8-4 ATS under coach Greg Schiano, who was given a four-year contract extension that will run through 2016. 7 starters are back on offense and 6 on what was the nation's No. 4 defense. This is first a running team on offense, averaging 29 points, 180 yards rushing. Speedy junior RB Raymell Rice (1,794 yards, 5.4 ypc, 20 TDs) is the workhorse that makes the offense hum.
Junior QB Mike Teel is a weak spot, throwing 12 TDs with 13 INTs. One offensive plus is senior kicker Jeremy Ito, one of the nation's best. The defense has junior DT Carl Howard, a former transfer from Virginia Tech, and senior DT George Eshareturi on a physical front line that allowed 2.9 yards per rush! The secondary was also outstanding allowing 151 yards passing per contest, helping the team allow 14 points per game. The only tough road game is the finale at Louisville (a revenge spot for the Cardinal).
37. Arkansas:
Houston Nutt's Razorbacks played for the 2006 SEC title game in a stellar 10-4 season. They are a power running team first, averaging 228 yards on the ground per contest and return brilliant junior tailbacks Darren McFadden (1,647 yards, 14 TDs) and Felix Jones (1,168 yards, a sizzling 7.6 yards per carry!) QBs Casey Dick and Nathan Emert will try to stabilize the spot after heralded QB Mitch Mustain transferred to USC.
The defense is experienced, with linebacker Ryan Powers, end Chris Wade and tackles Cord Gray and Malcolm Sheppard, though they lost DE Jamaal Anderson and cornerback Chris Houston to the NFL. Note that Arkansas is 2-15 SU, 8-9 ATS as a dog the last three years.
36. Purdue:
The Boilermakers begin their 11th-season under Joe Tiller, but the heat is on. They missed a bowl for the first time under him in 2005, despite plenty of talent, and went just 8-6 last season, getting run over by Maryland in a bowl, 24-7. Michigan and Ohio State were not on the schedule the last two seasons, which isn't the case in 2007. In fact, Purdue plays Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa - all in a row starting September 29!
Purdue returns 9 starters on offense and 8 on defense. The offense averaged 291 yards passing and junior QB Curtis Painter (22 TDs, 19 INTs) has been starting since his freshman campaign. His top targets return in senior WR Dorien Bryant (1,068 yards, 6 TDs) and junior WR Greg Orton, while the running game returns its top two backs. The defense, however, has been lousy. Up front, there is experience, but little size and they allowed 26.7 points, 191 yards rushing (4.9 ypc) and 241 yards passing per contest. Purdue is just 3-9 ATS its last 12 home games.
35. Oregon:
Hopes are high for head coach Mike Bellotti. 13 starters return as the Ducks look to improve on last year's 7-6 season that ended with 4 straight losses. Bellotti shook up his coaching staff. Chip Kelly is the new offensive coordinator after running high-scoring offenses at New Hampshire for the past eight seasons. It's not like this offense was bad, though, averaging 29 points, 182 yards rushing and 241 passing.
Senior QBs Dennis Dixon and Brady Leaf return and will have a shot at the No. 1 job. Dixon completed 61% of his passes, but 14 picks, 12 TDs. Junior RB Jonathan Stewart (981 yards) is a fine back and the offensive line is strong, led by junior tackle Max Unger. Defensively, the Ducks struggled against the run allowing 151 yards per game and Bellotti is concerned about the linebacking corps. Oregon is 18-7 SU, 13-9 ATS its last 25 at home.
34. Boise State:
The Broncos continue to roll, as first-year head coach Chris Peterson enjoyed a spectacular inaugural campaign, going 13-0. Boise averaged 39.7 points, 197 yards rushing and 190 passing. With 5 starters back on offense and 6 on defense, it is a bit of a retooling season. QB Jared Zabransky is gone, so quarterback will see a battle between junior Bush Hamdan and Taylor Tharp.
Freshman QB Nick Lomax is also in the mix, the son of former NFL QB Neil Lomax. Senior RG Jeff Cavender is one of four returning players on an offensive line that will be the team's strength. Junior RB Ian Johnson led major college football last season with 24 rushing TDs, plus 1,714 yards, averaging 6.2 yards per carry! The defensive line is loaded after allowing just 19 ppg. Since 1999, Boise is 52-2 SU, 33-12 ATS at home on the blue carpet.
33. Wake Forest:
Run-oriented Wake has always been competitive under 7th-year Head Coach Jim Grobe, but last year took the cake, winning the ACC. Wake was the surprise team in the nation, at 11-3 SU, 8-5 ATS going to the Orange Bowl. The ground game averaged 150 yards, but the swarming defense was the big story, allowing 15 points per contest and just 3.1 yards per rush. 2007 looks promising with 8 starters back on offense and 5 on defense.
Sophomore QB Riley Skinner was outstanding as a freshman with 9 TDs, 5 picks, 2,051 yards while completing 65.8% of his passes. The backfield has great depth with the top four running backs returning. Kicker Sam Swank (21-of-27 FGs) was a huge weapon and returns for his junior season. He was 5-of-7 for kicks 50 yards or more. The defense is an attacking, swarming unit, as Wake went 10-3 under the total.
32. Texas Tech:
Coach Mike Leach has quite a system in place, plugging in players, going without an offensive playbook, while his pass-happy attack just keeps churning along. They're off an 8-5 season finishing with 369 yards passing and 32 points per game. Leach is a master at retooling and his work is cut out for him with only 4 starters back on both sides of the ball.
Fortunately, junior QB Graham Harrell returns, who finished his sophomore season with 4,555 yards, 66.8% completions, 38 TDs and 11 INTs. New wideouts step in and they need a replacement for valuable RB Taurean Henderson. Note that Texas Tech averaged 27 ppg on the road, but 39 ppg at home. Texas Tech is 25-5 SU, 18-9 ATS its last 30 home games.
31. Southern Miss:
The Golden Eagles have had 13 straight seasons with a winning record, all under coach Jeff Bower. Southern Miss always plays a tough schedule and they look loaded for 2007, returning 6 offensive and 8 defensive starters. Senior QB Jeremy Young took over the job and passed for 12 TDs, 6 picks and ran for 224 yards.
Sophomore RB Damion Fletcher comes back after a sensational freshman campaign running for 1,388 yards, 5 ypc, and 11 TDs. He came out of nowhere to anchor the ground game that averaged 173 yards per contest. Keep an eye out for freshman RB Antwain Easterling, a sought after prospect who is the cousin of NFL RB Willis McGahee. A C-USA title game appearance and another bowl is likely.
30. T.C.U:
Undervalued again! TCU went 11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS two years ago and a sizzling 11-2 SU, 9-3 ATS last season. That's 18-6 ATS the last two years. Coach Gary Patterson likes offensive balance and in 2006 the Frogs averaged 29 points, 194 yards rushing and 213 pass yards. They lost QB Jeff Ballard, but not to worry: mobile sophomore QB Marcus Jackson is a terrific talent and the ground game has junior RB Aaron Brown (801 yards).
The defense is even better, with 9 starters back, led by senior DEs Tommy Blake and Chase Ortiz. Only USC, with four Lombardi Award candidates, has more players on the list. Blake led the Mountain West Conference with 16.5 tackles for a loss and had 7 sacks. The BYU and Utah games are revenge matchups. TCU carries an 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS run into the new season and is 14-2 SU, 12-4 ATS the last two years in MWC play.
29. Notre Dame:
A rebuilding campaign for Charlie Weis, with only 3 starters back on offense. Notre Dame has not been a good defensive team under Weis, giving up 44 and 41 points in the last two games to USC and LSU. The offense rebuilds around freshman QB Jimmy Clausen, a super-prospect with comparisons to John Elway. He's 6-3, didn't lose a game in three years in high school, throwing 146 touchdowns to 20 interceptions.
Four starters are gone off the offensive line, there are new RBs, and 6-foot-6 senior TE John Carlson is the only big gun back. The defense has 6 starters back, but allowed 23.8 points per game and got shredded against good offenses. That's why the Irish are 15-10 over the total under Weis. The schedule is tough, opening with Georgia Tech, at Penn State, at Michigan, and Michigan State - all in September.
28. UCLA:
It was been an unusual two seasons for the Bruins and Head Coach Karl Dorrell. UCLA went 10-2 in 2005, yet it was all offense and no defense. The defense allowed a ridiculous 235 yards rushing AND passing per game! In 2006 the Bruins (7-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) made it to a bowl game with a team that was all defense and little offense! UCLA allowed just 19.9 points and 2.8 yards per rush.
New defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker did a great job and helped fuel the 13-9 upset of USC, which muddled the national title race. There are high hopes for 2007 with 10 starters back on both sides of the ball. They would like to settle on a QB between juniors Ben Olson (5 TDs, 5 picks) and Pat Cowan, but the defense is loaded behind All-America senior DE Bruce Davis (12.5 QB sacks). The defense helped the Bruins go 10-3 "under" the total last fall.
27. Texas A&M:
Aggie Coach Dennis Franchione was under the gun for a strong 2006 season with many key players back. The Aggies delivered, finishing 9-4 SU/9-2 ATS, which included a 12-7 upset over Texas as a +13 dog. The stars are back, with 8 starters on offense and 7 on defense. The ground game is terrific, averaging 27.8 points, 207 yards rushing behind junior QB Stephen McGee, who ran for 666 yards and passed for 2,295 yards, 12 TDs and 2 INTs.
He completed 62% of his passes. Sophomore RB Mike Goodson exploded as a freshman, with 847 yards while averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Throw in junior RB Jorvorskie Lane (725 yards) and the top three rushers return. The defense was up and down, holding Texas to 7 points, then giving up 45 in a bowl to Cal. A&M is 4-17 SU, 8-12 ATS the last four seasons as a dog.
26. Oklahoma State:
Head coach Mike Gundy's Cowboys return 8 starters to an offense that ranked No. 16 (409.8 yards per game), No. 7 in rushing offense (208 yards per game), and No. 7 in scoring offense (35 points per game). Mobile junior Bobby Reid (24 TDs, 11 INTs, 2,266 yards) leads the offense and rushed for 500 yards. 5-foot-9 senior RB Dantrell Savage is back after running for 820 yards, a sizzling 6.5 ypc.
Speedy senior WR Adarius Bowman makes the passing game go, with 1,181 yards, 12 TDs. On defense, the Cowboys return 7 starters. New defensive coordinator Tim Beckman comes over from Ohio State, where he had been cornerback.5?s coach. The defense allowed too many rush yards in Big 12 play (172 per game). Road games at Georgia, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Nebraska will be a challenge. They were 8-4 over the total and look like an offensive machine again.
25. Hawaii:
Coach June Jones has an exciting offense that averaged 47 points and 444 yards passing last season! That's why the Rainbows went 11-3 SU, 8-3 ATS. With 6 starters back on offense and 8 on defense, hopes are high for 2007. QB Colt Brennan is back after considering the NFL. In 2006 he passed for 5,549 yards, 72% completions, and an NCAA record 58 touchdowns.
The passing game will be devastating, as Brennan gets his top targets back in junior WR Ryan Grice-Mullen (770 yards, 11 TDs), senior WR Davone Bess (1,220 yards, 15 TDs) and senior WR Jason Rivers (1,178 yds). You can see why Brennan wanted to return! DC Jerry Glanville got the most out of a smallish unit, allowing 24 points and 241 yards passing per game. Hawaii is 7-14 SU/8-12 ATS on the road the last four seasons, but 18-6 SU, 14-6 ATS at home. They are also 23-11 over the total the last three years. A road test at Nevada might be the only thing standing in the way of a WAC title.
24. Ohio State:
How the mighty have fallen! Unbeaten and No. 1 most of 2006, the Buckeyes took a stunning fall in the national championship game, getting flattened by Florida, 41-14, as a 7-point favorite. They got outgained by the Gators 370-82. Heisman winning QB Troy Smith is gone and only 3 starters return on offense.
You won't recognize this offense. There is a battle at QB with Todd Boeckman the likely candidate, but he threw just 3 passes. 6 returning starters key an outstanding defense that allowed 10 points pg and 3.3 yards per rush before Florida gouged them. The linebackers are deep with junior LB Marcus Freeman and Mike D'Andrea as the team went 9-4 under the total. Ohio State is 35-2 SU, 24-11-1 ATS its last 37 home games.
23. Boston College:
It was an offseason of change at BC, despite a strong 10-3 season. Coach Tom O'Brien bolted for the greener pastures of NC State so BC has a new head coach in Jeff Jagodzinski. He served as the offensive coordinator for the 2006 Green Bay Packers. Despite the changes on the sidelines, the Eagles are loaded with experience on the field, with 7 starters back on offense and 10 on defense.
The defense is fast allowing 15.7 points, 3.5 yards per rush and just 183 yards passing per contest. The entire defensive front seven returns, while senior CB DeJuan Tribble mans the secondary. The offense is strong and balanced, with senior QB Matt Ryan (15 TDs, 10 INTs) and senior RBs Andre Callender and L.V. Whitworth. They have tough road tests at Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Maryland and Clemson. BC is 6-0 SU/ATS as a dog the last two seasons!
22. Alabama:
In Nick we trust! Mike Shula got the axe and the 'Bama vaults opened for Nick Saban after his two-year NFL flop. He hopes to do for 'Bama what he did for LSU in 2003, winning a national title. Saban likes a balanced offense and Alabama returns 9 starters on offense, including junior center Antoine Caldwell, who was named to the 2007 Rimington Trophy Watch List.
The passing game is loaded, led by junior QB John Parker Wilson. He was polished for a sophomore with 2,707 yards, 17 TDs, 10 picks. Senior WR D.J. Hall and (1,056 yards) and 6-foot-3 senior WR Keith Brown (590) form one of the SEC's best 1-2 receiving tandems. 5 starters return to a defense that allowed 19 points per game. Saban likes tough, physical defenses and brings in defensive coordinator Kevin Steele. Bama plays 7 home games and only 4 road games before the finale against Auburn. The only tough road games are at Florida State and at Auburn.
21. Iowa:
Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes are off a frustrating 6-7 season. A 26-24 loss to Texas in the Alamo Bowl summed up a season of near misses. Iowa was a money-burner at 1-11 against the spread. 2007 looks to be better, with 6 starters back on offense. Sophomore QB Jake Christensen steps in for departed Drew Tate, and has a strong running game to help with senior RBs Albert Young (779 yards) and Damian Sims (664 yards).
The defense was very good, allowing 20 points, 3.6 yards per rush and 210 yards passing per game and 8 starters are back. Senior linebackers Mike Klinkenborg and Mike Humpal return, along with senior DE Kenny Iwebema and DE Bryan Mattison. The defensive line returns intact. Iowa has won 26 of 31 home games and is 32-7 SU, 25-11-2 ATS at home the last five years.
20. Miami:
They love football in the south, and Florida football fans are reeling from the Miami pro AND college teams losing their head coaches. Nick Saban fled the Dolphins while the Hurricanes fired Larry Coker. Miami's new head coach is Randy Shannon, 40, who was the team's defensive coordinator the last six seasons. Miami allowed just 15 points per game, which is why they were 10-1 under the total.
His big job is to jumpstart an anemic Hurricane offense that returns 9 starters. Patrick Nix is the new offensive coordinator, coming over from Georgia Tech. Senior QB Kyle Wright (8 TDs, 7 INTs) looks to return to his sophomore form of 2005 when he threw 18 TDs, 10 INTs. The defense is loaded, with 7 starters back, including mammoth 6-8, 265-pound defensive end Calais Campbell. Road games at Florida State, at Virginia Tech and at Boston College will be tough, especially with the last two ending the regular season. Bettors beware: Miami has gone 8-15 ATS the last two seasons!
19. Georgia:
It's remarkable how close the Dawgs were to an unbeaten season two years ago, losing to Florida by 4, to Auburn by 1 and in the bowl game to West Virginia by 3. 2006 was a bit of a rebuilding year and they struggled behind center. Georgia returns 13 starters off a roller-coaster 2006 ride that ended on a positive note with three straight wins against ranked teams, including a bowl victory over Virginia Tech.
QB is the big story, with sophomore Matthew Stafford battling it out with juniors Blake Barnes and Joe Cox. Fortunately, the running game will take the heat off them with senior RBs Thomas Brown and Kregg Lumpkin. Road games at Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida will probably keep them out of the SEC title chase, but sports bettors take note: Georgia is 25-7 SU/20-12 ATS on the road under Mark Richt.
18. Nebraska:
Bill Callahan's Huskers were sensational in 2006 averaging over 30 points, with 170 yards rushing and 244 yards passing. The 2007 team is loaded with veterans on offense (8 starters back), and 6 on a defense that allowed 18 ppg. They won the North, got to the Big 12 title game, and Callahan has done a terrific recruiting job.
QB Zach Taylor is gone, but there are two talented options with mobile junior QB Joe Ganz and big senior Sam Keller. Keller was terrific at Arizona State, but lost his job to Rudy Carpenter, so he transferred. Their top targets are back, and they expect junior RB Marlon Lucky (728, 5.2 ypc) to replace Brandon Jackson, who's off to the NFL. The defense is solid. An easier schedule helps, playing only at Texas and at home to USC. September games against ACC champ Wake Forest and USC will be a challenge.
17. Penn State:
80-year old Joe Paterno's Nittany Lions were one of the great stories of 2005, coming out of nowhere to win the Big 10, and a 9-4 2006 rebuilding campaign. 8 starters return on offense and 6 on defense. Senior QB Anthony Morelli returns after throwing for 2,424 yards, 11 TDs and 8 picks. A deep, talented receiving corps is back to help him, including all four of their top receivers.
The defense was the heart and soul of the team, allowing 14.4 points per game and 87.5 rushing yards. The secondary is in great shape with junior SS Anthony Scirrotto, junior CB Tony Davis and junior CB Justin King. Penn State was 8-3 under the total in 2006 with that awesome defense. At home the Lions are 15-1 SU, 10-5 ATS their last 16. The schedule is favorable, with Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Ohio State coming to Happy Valley and the only tough road contest is at Michigan.
16. Missouri:
Wow! Mizzou was explosive offensively last season, averaging 30 points, 149 yards rushing and 276 yards passing. They return 10 starters on offense. Head Coach Gary Pinkel has an ace in junior quarterback Chase Daniel, who ended his sophomore year with school records in passing touchdowns (28), passing yards (3,527) and total offense (3,906). They ranked eighth in the nation in total offense (425.6 yards per game).
They have outstanding height at wideout with senior WR William Franklin (829 yards) and 6-foot-6 junior tight end Chase Coffman (638 yards, 9 TDs). 6 starters return on defense that has something to prove, after giving up 34 to Nebraska and a 39-38 Sun Bowl collapse to Oregon State. They lost 4 of their final 5 games. A three-game stretch against Nebraska, at Oklahoma and Texas Tech will be key. Missouri plays its home games on turf, and note they are 12-28 SU their last 40 road games. Missouri is 19-8 SU, 14-10 ATS its last 27 home games, 3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS its last 9 road games.
15. Florida State:
It was a bust of a season for Florida State (7-6), barely making a bowl game with four of their wins against Troy, Rice, Virginia and Western Michigan. They beat Troy by 7 as a 26-point favorite and squeaked by Western Michigan 28-20 as an 18-point chalk. Not exactly what Seminole fans are used to. However, there is plenty of room for optimism.
Bobby Bowden has 7 starters returning on offense and 8 on defense. Five new assistants join Bowden, including new offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher, who helped LSU to a national title in 2003. Junior QB Drew Weatherford threw for 325 yards in the Emerald Bowl against UCLA in a 44-27 win. The Florida State defense is loaded and allowed just 2.9 yards per rush. The Seminoles are 4-0 ATS their last 4 games as a dog (three straight up wins).
14. Tennessee:
Offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe help jumpstart the Vols' offense, as Tennessee struck for 27.8 points and 264 pass yards per contest. 6-foot-6 senior QB Erik Ainge returns after throwing for 19 TDs, 9 picks, 67% completions. One concern is that Ainge went down early in spring ball with a torn MCL that kept him out for three months, so he might not be 100% in September.
The ground game returns its top backs in sophomore RB LaMarcus Coker (696 yards, 6.4 ypc) and junior RB Arian Foster. 5 starters return to an attacking defense that struggled too often against the run. Remember, they lost just 21-20 on a late TD to eventual champion Florida. Oddly, Tennessee is 5-15 ATS its last 20 at home, and 15-6 SU/13-7-1 ATS on the road the last four seasons.
13. California:
Golden Bears head coach Jeff Tedford has 7 starters back on offense and 5 on defense to last season's 10-3 team. Cal's offense averaged 32.8 points and 253 yards passing, and returns the nation's best receiving corps and junior QB Nate Longshore (24 TDs, 13 INTs). There is great speed at wideout with junior WR DeSean Jackson (1,060 yards, 9 TDs) and junior WR LaVelle Hawkins (who originally enrolled at LSU).
The defense returns 5 starters, including junior LB Zack Follett, to a solid unit that allowed 19 points and 3.8 yards per rush. They need to tighten up a pass defense that allowed 240 yards in the air per game. Cal is 33-26 against the spread under Tedford and went 8-0 SU, 4-3 ATS at home last season. They open the season with a revenge game hosting Tennessee and have THE BIG ONE Nov. 10 at home against USC. They could make a run at the Pac 10 title.
12. Wisconsin:
The Badgers began a new era as Bret Bielema took over as head coach (their former defensive coordinator), and they were sensational last fall at 12-1 SU, 9-2 ATS allowing 12 points per game! With 9 starters returning on offense and 7 on defense, the Badgers are thinking Big 12 and national championship.
The offense has senior QB Tyler Donovan (4 TDs, 2 INTs, 564 yards) stepping in. The running game has 242-pound sophomore P.J. Hill Jr (1,569 yards, 5.0 ypc, 15 TDs) and the talent at wideout is outstanding with senior WRs Marcus Randle El, Paul Hubbard and Luke Swan. The fierce defense returns seniors Nick Hayden and DT Justin Ostrowski up front. Wisconsin is 19-2 SU, 13-5 ATS at home the last three years. Road games at Penn State, Iowa and Minnesota will be the big tests.
11. South Carolina:
Coach Steve Spurrier has done a marvelous job with limited talent the last two seasons, going 8-5 SU, 9-3 ATS last season. Last season 8 Gamecocks attempted a pass and 6 completed a pass. Yes, the old ball coach still knows what he's doing. They lost to Auburn, Tennessee, Arkansas and champion Florida by seven points or fewer. Things are looking up, too.
Senior QB Blake Mitchell is back, after a fine season with 1,789 yards, 10 TDs, 6 picks while completing 66.8% of his passes. This passing game is loaded with junior WR Kenny McKinley and 6-5 junior TE Jared Cook, who averaged almost 19 yards per catch. 10 starters are back on a terrific defense. Note that Spurrier is 7-3 SU, 9-1 ATS on the road at South Carolina and 8-4 over the total last fall. Circle Nov. 10 on your calendar - defending champion Florida at South Carolina.
10. Louisville:
QB Brian Brohm decided to return for his senior season, rather than go to the pros. He leads an offense that averaged 37.8 points and 475 yards. However, offensive wizard Head Coach Bobby Petrino left for the NFL. So they moved quickly to get Steve Kragthorpe, who ran wide-open offenses at Tulsa. His offenses were explosive and he inherits a lot of talent at Louisville.
The Cardinals finished 2006 at 12-1 SU/9-4 ATS averaging 290 passing yards and 185 rushing. 8 starters return on offense, and 6 on defense. Brohm passed for 3,049 yards, 16 TDs, 5 INTs, and has 6-foot-6 junior WR Mario Urrutia and senior WR Harry Douglas (1,265 yards) to throw to. The ground game is also loaded and they return All-America PK Art Carmody. Louisville is built for speed at home, where they are 17-0 SU, 15-2 ATS the last three years! They have an easy schedule, and the big showdown is November 8 at West Virginia. Louisville carries a 25-12 spread run into this season.
9. L.S.U:
The Tigers have done well under third-year Head Coach Les Miles, back-to-back 11-2 seasons. Miles likes wide-open offense and last fall they averaged 33.7 points, 166 yards rushing and 251 passing. Junior quarterback JaMarcus Russell is off to the NFL, so QB senior Matt Flynn and sophomore Ryan Perrilloux will battle for the job.
Gary Crowton comes over from Oregon as the Tigers' new offensive coordinator, and he ran wide-open attacks at BYU and Oregon. The defense has been awesome and returns 8 starters. The front seven should be dominant, led by All-America DT Glenn Dorsey and senior LB Ali Highsmith. The road schedule is gravy, it's the home schedule that's tough, with games against Virginia Tech, Florida, Auburn and Arkansas. The Tigers were 9-0 SU, 5-3 ATS at home last fall where they allowed 7 ppg!
8. Oklahoma:
After an 11-3 SU, 8-4 ATS season, coach Bob Stoops returns 9 starters on offense, 8 on defense. Adrian Peterson may be off to the NFL, but another AP (senior RB Allen Patrick) exploded for 761 yards. The offense had good balance, after averaging 30 points, 171 yards rushing and 191 passing per game. Redshirt freshman QB Sam Bradford won the starting job. Bradford stands 6-foot-5 and weighs 213 pounds. He threw for 2,422 yards and 19 touchdowns in his senior season at Putnam City North High School in Oklahoma City before redshirting a year ago.
8 starters are back to a defense that allowed 3.3 yards per rush and 287 total yards per game (17 ppg, 9-5 under the total). Senior DT Carl Pendleton and sophomore DT DeMarcu Granger anchor a solid line, while linebackers Mike Reed and Lewis Bake anchor the always-fierce linebacking corps. The outstanding secondary returns 3 starters. The schedule is relatively easy, and after the October 6th showdown with Texas, they only play two road games.
7. Auburn:
What a 3-year run for Auburn and Coach Tommy Tuberville. A 13-0 dream season in 2004, a 9-3 SU, 8-2 ATS campaign in 2005, and last fall's 11-2 season. Auburn is loaded for this season, too, with 7 seven starters back on defense, while the offense gets most of the key skill players back. Senior QB Brandon Cox (14 TDs, 9 INTs) and a deep backfield lead a balanced offense. Auburn has averaged 204, 184, 183, 194 and 148 yards rushing per game in each of the last five seasons.
The defense has 7 starters back to a unit that allowed 13.9 points and just 168 yards passing per contest. Auburn is 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS the last three years as an underdog, and 11-3 ATS its last 14 as a dog. The Tigers were the only team to defeat national champion Florida, a 27-17 victory as a +2 dog. Road games at Florida, at Georgia, at Arkansas and at LSU will be tough, but Auburn is a sizzling 12-1 SU, 9-4 ATS the last three years on the road.
6. West Virginia:
Speed to burn! Rich Rodriguez has developed a fantastic program at West Virginia, predicated on speed for the artificial turf at Mountaineer Field. They were explosive offensively last season, averaging 38 points and 303 rushing yards, finishing 11-2. 7 starters return on offense and 8 on defense. Even the coach is back, after getting an offer to go to Alabama.
This is a running offense with incredible speed in the backfield. West Virginia averaged 303 yards rushing, a sizzling 6.7 yards per carry in 2006. Junior QB Pat White (1,655 pass yards, 13 TDs, 7 INTs) ran for 1,219 yards, 18 TDs, 7.4 yards per carry and teams with speedy junior RB Steve Slaton ( 1,744 rush yards, 16 TDs, averaging 7.0 ypc.) They get a revenge game at home against Louisville, but need to tighten up a pass defense that allowed 243 pass yards per contest.
5. Michigan:
It's the 10th year anniversary of Michigan's National Title team of 1997. The Wolverines were close to another last season, starting 11-0 before losses to Ohio State and to USC in the Rose Bowl. Michigan had a potent and balanced offense in 2006 averaging 29 points, 175 yards rushing and 195 passing per game. This fall the offense looks to be the strength of the team, with 7 starters returning.
QB Chad Henne returns for his senior season after passing for 2,508 yards, 61% completions, 22 TDs and 8 picks. Senior RB Michael Hart (1,562 yards, 4.9 ypc, 14 TDs) provides balance to the attack. Henne has good targets led by speedy junior WR Mario Manningham (703, 9 TDs). The defense lost its top players, but the schedule is manageable with Michigan State, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Oregon and Penn State coming to the Big House. Michigan is 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS its last 5 road games.
4. Florida:
2006 was the 100th year of Florida football, and the Gators certainly made it memorable by winning the national championship, trouncing Ohio State as an underdog, 41-14. Head coach Urban Meyer's offense averaged 28.8 points, 160 yards rushing and 237 passing per game, but it was a ferocious defense (13.5 ppg) that led the way to the title. Sophomore QB Tim Tebow gets the full time nod at center, and he's better suited to running the triple-option attack.
The offense has senior wide receiver Andre Caldwell, but the defense has only 2 starters back. The line was magnificent against the run, allowing 78 rush yards and 2.8 yards per carry, but is rebuilding. Florida has gone 16-8 UNDER the total the last two seasons with its great defense. The schedule isn't too bad, with only four road games, the toughest at LSU October 6th. The Gators get Auburn, Florida State and Tennessee at home.
3. Virginia Tech:
Virginia Tech hopes to bring some joy to the Hokie community after the awful events of April shattered the campus. The defense is loaded, allowing 11 points, 91 yards rushing and 128 yards passing per game! Yes, they were 8-4 under the total with all that defense. With 8 starters back on BOTH sides of the ball, expect the Hokies to be great again.
This is a run-first team as junior quarterback Sean Glennon (11 TDs, 11 picks) is average. The power running game has junior RB Branden Ore (1,137 yards, 4.7 ypc, and 16 TDs). The defense was first in the nation allowing just 219 yards and 11 points per game. A whopping 8 starters return including the nation's best linebacking pair in Vince Hall and Xavier Adibi. The schedule is kind, with ACC home games against Miami, Florida State and B.C. Road games at LSU, Georgia Tech and Clemson will be challenging. If the offense improves, this defense is talented enough to carry them to the ACC title game and it's possible they could be a national title contender.
2. U.S.C:
The Trojans opened in Vegas as the team to beat for the national title in 2007. Head coach Pete Carroll's team is loaded, with 6 starters back on offense and 10 on defense. They are off a "rebuilding" 11-2 season. USC is 48-4 SU, 32-20 ATS the last four years. Almost everyone is back on a defense that allowed 15 points per game and 3.0 yards per rush.
The offense is led by senior QB John David Booty (3,347 yards, 29 TDs, 9 picks as a first-year starter.) The offense clicked for 30 points, 130.8 yards rushing and 261 yards passing per game. Carroll has loaded up the backfield with former Parade prep All-Americans, including freshman standout RB Joe McKnight. The defense allowed over 20 points only once in their final 6 games (24 points to Notre Dame), while holding Michigan to 18, and Oregon and Cal to 10 and 9 points.
USC is 26-0 SU, 18-8 ATS at home the last four seasons! The schedule is challenging, with a September 15th game at Nebraska (Game No. 2) and later road games at Notre Dame and at Cal. The Trojans are in good shape to be in the running for their third national title game in four years.
1. Texas:
Mack Brown followed up a national championship season with a 10-3 "rebuilding" campaign. Along the way they smacked Oklahoma again, 28-10. The Longhorns return 7 starters on both sides of the ball. Sophomore QB Colt McCoy was outstanding as a freshman, passing for 2,570 yards, 29 TDs and 7 INTs while hitting 68%of his passes. Texas is 23-3 SU, 17-8 ATS the last two seasons and 5-0 SU/ATS its last 5 as a dog!
The offense averaged 36 points and Texas is 18-7 OVER the total the last two seasons! The running game is loaded behind junior RB Jamaal Charles (831 yards, 5.3 ypc, 7 TDs), while the passing corps is deep behind 6-foot-5 senior WR Limas Sweed (801 yards, 12 TDs). The schedule is easier, with no game with Ohio State, and only late season road games at Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. The October 6 battle with Oklahoma will be the first big test. The last six seasons after playing the Sooners (4 losses), the Longhorns are 46-6 SU/28-17-2 ATS the rest of the season.
|
|
