College Football 2007 SEC Preview
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2007 Southeastern Football Conference (East) Preview
Florida
2006 was the 100th year of Florida football, and the Gators certainly made it memorable by winning the national championship, trouncing Ohio State as an underdog, 41-14. Head coach Urban Meyer has only been here two years and has a title. Meyer brought his wide-open, spread attack to Gainesville after great success at Utah and Bowling Green. While the triple-option attack averaged 28.8 points, 160 yards rushing and 237 passing per game, it was a ferocious defense (13.5 ppg) that led the way to the title during a 13-1 SU, 6-7 ATS campaign.
So what does 2007 bring? Another great recruiting class, but changes at QB and a lot of talent gone to the NFL. Sophomore QB Tim Tebow goes from being a fullback/sometime QB to a full-time quarterback. Tebow passed for 358 yards with 5 TDs, one pick while completing 66.7% of his passes, better than Chris Leak. Tebow is a better triple-option QB than Leak, as well, so this is very much Meyer's offense. Tebow was second on the Gators with 469 rushing yards, 8 TDs and a strong 5.3 yards per game. Freshman QB Cameron Newton and JUCO transfer Bryan Waggener will battle for the number two QB spot.
The offense has senior wide receiver Andre Caldwell (577 yards) and a lot of young, new faces. Sophomore running back Brandon James and freshman running back Chevon Walker will vie for time, while junior WR/RB Percy Harvin was third in rushing with 428 yards and caught 34 passes for 427 yards. The passing game still has the veteran Caldwell, plus junior WR Louis Murphy, sophomore wide receiver David Nelson, sophomore wide receiver Cade Holliday and freshman tight end Aaron Hernandez. Meyer will have fun with all this speed and talent.
The defense has only 2 starters back. The line was magnificent against the run, allowing 78 rush yards and 2.8 yards per carry! They return senior LB Brandon Slier up front and two significant players in the secondary, but the line needs rebuilding. Look for freshmen DT John Brown and Torrey Davis, and tall DE Duke Lemmens to help out. Florida has gone 16-8 UNDER the total the last two seasons with its great defense. Florida was 8-0 SU/4-3 ATS in The Swamp last season, where they pummeled teams by a 33-10 average, which makes Meyer 16-0 SU, 9-6 ATS at home. The schedule is excellent, with only 4 road games, the toughest at LSU October 6th. The Gators get Auburn, Florida State and Tennessee at home. The Gators have a young team, but plenty of offensive tools, so Florida should dazzle SEC defenses.
South Carolina
South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier has done a marvelous job with limited talent the last two seasons, going 7-4 in his first regular season in 2005 (beating Tennessee and Florida), then 8-5 SU, 9-3 ATS last season. They had no running game in 2005 and finished 100th in the nation in total offense! Last season 8 Gamecocks attempted a pass and 6 completed a pass. Yes, the old ball coach still knows what he's doing. They lost to Auburn, Tennessee, Arkansas and Florida by seven points or fewer.
Things are looking up, too, with 6 starters back on offense and 10 on defense. The good news is that senior QB Blake Mitchell is back, after a fine season with 1,789 yards, 10 TDs, 6 picks while completing 66.8% of his passes. Back in 2005 he WAS the offense, with 2,370 pass yards, 17 TDs, 12 picks. Redshirt sophomore QB Tommy Beecher finished the 2006 season as the back-up quarterback and is slated to compete for that number two role again this season behind Mitchell. Junior TB Mike Davis returns after grinding out 474 rush yards (4.7 ypc), and they have senior RB Cory Boyd back (823 yards, 5 ypc), so this running game should be strong.
Of course, the running game only sets up Spurrier's passing attack. This team will be fun to watch even though sophomore WR Sidney Rice left for the NFL. Junior WR Kenny McKinley (880 yards) returns, along with 6-2 junior WR Freddie Brown and 6-5 junior TE Jared Cook, who averaged almost 19 yards per catch. Junior TB Bobby Wallace can help out with his hands and feet. South Carolina quarterback Stephen Garcia had his suspension for being arrested twice lifted by coach Spurrier. The highly touted freshman, who graduated high school early and enrolled in college to get a jump on learning the offense, is with the team, but was arrested Feb. 17 and charged with drunkenness. Note that Spurrier is 7-3 SU, 9-1 ATS on the road at South Carolina! The Gamecocks were also 8-4 over the total last fall.
The defense was outstanding the last two seasons, and in 2006 they allowed 18 ppg. 10 starters return, including all seven starters to the defensive front. Senior Marque Hall and junior Matt Raysor will battle for DT and the linebacking corps is strong. The Gamecocks have overachieved in Spurrier's first two seasons, and with so much talent back, this is a season to expect great things. However, the schedule is against them, with four SEC road games at Georgia, LSU, Tennessee and Arkansas. Circle Nov. 10 on your calendar - defending champion Florida at South Carolina!
Tennessee
After a dreadful 2005 season, the Volunteers rebounded in a 9-4 campaign. The forgettable 5-6 2005 campaign came from a group that was expected to be a Top 20 team, and they missed a bowl game for the first time since 1988. Last season the Vols were motivated and much better, but it was a still a season of near misses that could have been better. They lost to Florida 21-20 at home on a late TD, making it even tougher to swallow when the Gators went on to win the national title. They lost to LSU 28-24 at home, as well, in a tough ending. Oddly, Tennessee is just 8-5 SU, 3-9 ATS at home the last two years! In fact, the last three years they are 13-8 SU, 5-15 ATS at home.
Tennessee brought in offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe last season, who returned to the Vols after spending six years as head coach at Mississippi. He helped jumpstart the offense, as Tennessee struck for 27.8 points and 264 pass yards per contest. 6-foot-6 senior QB Erik Ainge returns and bounced back with a strong campaign, with 19 TDs, 9 picks, completing 67% of his passes for 2,989 yards. As a freshman he passed for 1,452 yards, 17 TDs, 9 INTs in 2004. Ainge went down early in spring ball with a torn MCL that kept him out for three months, so he may not be ready for August/September.
The Orange also has young signal-callers in QBs Jonathan Crompton and Bo Hardegree. The ground game returns junior RB Arian Foster (879 and 322 yards the last two seasons), but loses sophomore RB LaMarcus Coker to a suspension. He had been the top back, running for 696 yards, 6.4 ypc as a freshman, but has been in and out of coach Phillip Fulmer's doghouse. Ace WR Robert Meachem jumped to the NFL after his junior season, and WR Jayson Swain is gone. So a relatively new crop of wide outs jump in led by junior WR Lucas Taylor, junior WR Austin Rogers and senior WR Josh Briscoe.
5 starters return to an attacking defense that struggled too often against the run and didn't get as much pressure on opposing QBs as it should have. They lost run stuffer Justin Harrell to the NFL, so Xavier Mitchell and Antonio Reynolds are veteran ends who need to step it up. Senior lineman Steven Jones is a 6-4, 308-pounder who appeared in three games in 2004 and two in 2005. Sophomore Dan Williams sat out a redshirt season in 2005 after signing out of Memphis East High School. He stands 6-3, 310 pounds and is vying for playing time in 2006 along the defensive front.
3 starters are gone in the secondary. Senior CB Roshaun Fellows is back after missing all of last year with a torn pectoral muscle and should be back at one spot. Stabilizing the secondary will be important with an opening day trip to Cal, September 1st. That's a revenge spot, as Tennessee hammered Cal in last year's opener. Through the first five games, Tennessee has to play at Cal, at Florida and hosting Georgia. The Vols are 15-6 SU/13-7-1 ATS on the road the last four seasons! September will be a big test to see how good this team is, but the key will be the return to health of QB Ainge.
Georgia
The Bulldogs have Head Coach Mark Richt, one of the best in the business, and his Georgia teams have gone 13-1 (10-3-1 against the spread), 11-3 SU, 10-2, 10-3 and 9-4 the last five seasons. Sports bettors take note: Georgia is 25-7 SU/20-12 ATS on the road under Richt! It's remarkable how close the Dawgs were to an unbeaten season two years ago, losing to Florida by 4, to Auburn by 1 and in the bowl game to West Virginia by 3! 2006 was a bit of a rebuilding year and they struggled behind center. Georgia returns 13 of 26 starters off the 2006 Chick-fil-A Bowl Championship team. The roller-coaster ride that was the 2006 season for the Bulldogs ended on a positive note with three straight wins against ranked teams, including a bowl victory over Virginia Tech.
Quarterback is the big story for 2007. Sophomore QB Matthew Stafford was forced in as the starter as a freshman and was inconsistent, with 7 TDs and 13 picks, for 1,749 yards. Junior backup Blake Barnes is also available, along with junior QB Joe Cox. Cox passed for 225 yards last fall. Just as big a concern for the Bulldogs is at wide receiver, where there are holes. Junior WR Mo Massaquoi (366 yards) was the second leading receiver and has to prove he can be a true number one target, while A.J. Bryant (251) and junior WR Kenneth Harris need to do more. Junior speedster WR Demiko Goodman may be the answer.
Four starters needed to be replaced off the offensive line, with Vince Vance and Scott Haverkamp stepping in. Senior Chester Adams (6-4, 320) is on top of the depth chart at right guard. Georgia has had excellent balance on offense under Richt, as in 2004 Georgia averaged 28 points while running for 156 yards and passing for 247 per game. In 2005 Georgia averaged 29 points while rushing for 162 yards and passing for 229 per game, but slipped in 2006 because of weak QB play. The offense has senior RB Thomas Brown (736 yards in 2005, 256 in 2006) and senior RB Kregg Lumpkin (798 yards, 4.9 ypc).
Marck Richt said, "I think the biggest question for us will be the offensive line. If that comes together, I think we've got a good chance to be good in other positions offensively. Defensively, we have some depth and guys who redshirted along with some junior college transfers who will help us. We'll have a chance." Three starters need to be replaced on the defensive line. Jarius Wynn and Corvey Irvin should ease the loss of Charles Johnson, Ray Gant and Quentin Moses on the defensive line. The defense allowed 15 points per game in 2002, just 14.5 ppg in 2003, 17 ppg in 2004, 16 ppg in 2005 and 17.6 ppg last season. 4 of their first 5 games are at home! Road games at Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida will be the toughest road tests.
Kentucky
Rich Brooks begins his fifth season at Kentucky, and this is the most excitement seen in years around the Wildcat football program. Kentucky (8-5) is off a bowl season where they upset Clemson, 28-20 as a +11 dog, with an electrifying offense. Senior QB Andre Woodson returns as the leader of the SEC's best passing game, one that averaged 26.7 points and 276 yards passing. Senior quarterback Andre' Woodson completed 63% of his passes for 3,515 yards, 31 TDs, 7 INTs. Remember that was off a sophomore season where he threw only 6 TDs and 6 picks, so this has been a great story.
The offensive line has some retooling to do, and they hope true sophomore Justin Jeffries becomes a mainstay along with Eric Scott in the middle. The rushing game returns senior tailback Rafael Little, who averaged 4.8 yards per carry, and had 673 yards rushing, 392 receiving. In 2005 he had 1,045 yards rushing and also caught 46 passes for 449 yards, so he does it all. Little had a good spring even though he had arthroscopic knee surgery before spring practice began.
Kentucky sophomore RB Alfonso Smith has also played well, adding to the depth. Woodson's favorite target returns in senior WR Keenan Burton, who caught 77 passes for 1,036 yards and 12 TDs. Throw in junior WR Dicky Lyons Jr (822 yards) and their top two receivers are back, along with senior tight end Jacob Tamme who impressed with 386 yards. A focal point of the offense will be the competition between Redshirt freshman Mike Hartline and Will Fidler for the backup quarterback slot.
The defense gets 8 starters back, though they allowed 184 yards on the ground per game. There has been little improvement under fifth-year defensive coordinator Mike Archer, who brought in a new a 3-4-4 alignment. Senior defensive end J. D. Craigman, freshman linebacker Chris Cessna, and redshirt freshman defensive tackle Ricky Lumpkin will try and improve the run defense. Despite having a reputation as a team involved in high scoring games, note that Kentucky is 27-20 UNDER the total the last four seasons. Last fall the Wildcats were 7-1 SU at home, but 1-4 SU on the road.
Vanderbilt
Vandy went 5-6 in 2005 WITH QB Jay Cutler, then slipped to 4-8 last fall without him. However, they weren't that bad, beating Georgia (24-22) and losing to Florida (25-19), Alabama and Arkansas (21-19) by a total of 12 points. They even covered at Michigan in the opener, a 27-7 loss. Coach Bobby Johnson is doing a decent job and he has 9 starters back on offense and 8 on defense.
Vanderbilt has its most experienced talent in years under sixth-year head coach Bobby Johnson. Mobile junior QB Chris Nickson stepped in for Cutler last season and threw for 2,085 yards, 15 TDs, 13 picks. The Commodores have three quarterbacks with collegiate experience in Nickson, senior Richard Kovalcheck and sophomore Mackenzi Adams. Junior WR Earl Bennett has been a force the last two seasons, with 876 receiving yards as a freshman and 1,146 yards last fall as a sophomore. Junior WR George Smith chipped in 313 receiving yards, so the top two wideouts return.
The running game was very good, averaging 149 yards, 4.7 ypc. The leading rusher? QB Chris Nickson, with 694 yards, and he teams with senior RB Cassen Jackson-Garrison (614 yards), who is back after leading the team in rushing in 2005 and was second last fall. Vandy was outscored by just a 23-22 average last season, but is still 6-34 in the SEC the last 40 games (1-7 last year).
The defense has been weak up front, and allowed 23 points, 156 yards rushing, 4.1 yds per carry and 196 yards passing per game. Defensive end Quavian Lewis, cornerback D.J. Moore, safety Brent Trice, and linebackers Brandon Bryant and Patrick Benoist return. Vandy is short on depth and will struggle in the SEC again. They finish up with seven straight bowl teams including road trips to Auburn, South Carolina, Florida and Tennessee before finishing up with defending ACC champion Wake Forest. Despite the returning talent and experience, it will be another bowl-less season.
2007 Southeastern Football Conference (West) Preview
Auburn
What a 3-year run for Auburn and Coach Tommy Tuberville. A 13-0 dream season in 2004, a 9-3 SU, 8-2 ATS campaign in 2005, and last fall's 11-2 season. Auburn is loaded for this season, too, with 7 seven starters back on defense, while the offense gets most of the key skill players back, including quarterback. Auburn is 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS the last three years as an underdog, and 11-3 ATS its last 14 as a dog! The Tigers were the only team to defeat 2006 national champion Florida, a 27-17 victory as a +2 dog.
Senior QB Brandon Cox had a fine junior season with 14 TDs, 9 INTs, and 2,198 yards (as a sophomore in 2005 he had 15 TDs, 8 INTs, and 2,324 yards.) The key for the Tigers has been the running game and its great offensive line. The Tigers have 6-foot-8, 315-lb senior LT King Dunlap and senior 6-5 RT Leon Hart anchoring the large offensive line. Auburn has averaged 204, 184, 183, 194 and 148 yards rushing per game in each of the last five seasons.
The backfield loses RB Kenny Irons, but has plenty of talent and depth. Senior RB Brad Lester is back after running for 510 yards, 4.9 ypc, 9 TDs, along with junior RB Ben Tate, who averaged 7.3 yards per carry! Junior RB Tristan Davis (who played safety last season) and Redshirt freshman RB Mario Fannin provide depth. Two of the top 3 receivers return in 6-4 senior WR Prechae Rodriguez, junior WR Rodgeriqus Smith (452 yards) and RB Carl Stewart, who caught 13 passes for 239 yards, though this is a team that looks to run the ball first. Junior WR Robert Dunn impressed in the spring.
The defense has 7 starters back to a unit that allowed 13.9 points, 124 yards rushing, 3.7 ypc, and just 168 yards passing per contest. First-year defensive coordinator Will Muschamp did one heck of a job (he was with the Dolphins in 2005 season and was LSU's defensive coordinator when they won the title in 2003.) Senior DE Quentin Groves and sophomore Patrick Trahan are tough up front, while senior SS Eric Brock and junior Blake Shrader man the secondary. Auburn has a tough SEC schedule with road games at Florida, at Georgia, at Arkansas and at LSU. The schedule might make an SEC title run difficult, but Auburn is an amazing 12-1 SU, 9-4 ATS the last three years on the road!
L.S.U.
LSU has done very well under third-year Head Coach Les Miles, back-to-back 11-2 seasons. Miles is a good recruiter who had strong passing offenses at Oklahoma State. In his first season at LSU, the Tigers averaged 29.5 points, 150 yards rushing and 224 passing and last fall they averaged 33.7 points, 166 yards rushing and 251 passing. Junior quarterback JaMarcus Russell bypassed his senior season by jumping to the NFL, so QB senior Matt Flynn and sophomore Ryan Perrilloux will battle for the job.
Flynn is the likely candidate, passing for 133 yards in 2006 (2 TDs, one INT). 5 starters return on offense. Gary Crowton comes over from Oregon as the Tigers' new offensive coordinator, and he ran wide-open attacks at BYU and Oregon. The running game by committee was very productive and returns its top two rushers in junior RB Keiland Williams (436 yards) and senior running back Jacob Hester (440 yards, 4.7 ypc). Senior TB Alley Broussard decided not to play football but continue his studies at LSU.
The wideout corp lost WRs Craig Davis and senior WR Dwayne Bowe, but still has the No. 3 receiver in senior Early Doucet (772 yards, 8 TDs). The Tigers return offensive linemen senior LG Will Arnold and junior C Brett Helms, along with junior LT Phil Loadholt. Other players expected to get a shot on the offensive line include junior guard Herman Johnson, and junior center Ryan Miller.
The defense has been awesome, and was the heart of their 2003 title run. Defensively, the Tigers return a total of 8 starters. The front seven should be awesome again with six starters returning, led by All-America DT Glenn Dorsey and senior LB Ali Highsmith. This unit allowed 3.2 yards per rush. The secondary was deadly, allowing 145 pass yards per game, but losses LaRon Landry to the NFL and Jessie Daniels. Senior SS Craig Steltz and Curtis Taylor have the experience to solidify a talented group.
Players expected to be in the mix for starting positions at linebacker for the Tigers include senior Luke Sanders, junior Darry Beckwith, and sophomore Jacob Cutrera. This team is deep, fast and talented. The road schedule is gravy, playing at Mississippi State, Tulane, Kentucky, Alabama and Ole Miss. LSU is 7-2 SU, 5-2 ATS on the road the last two seasons. It's the home schedule that's tougher, with games against Virginia Tech, Florida, Auburn and Arkansas. The key will be at QB, but the Tigers should make some noise again as they were 9-0 SU, 5-3 ATS at home last fall where they allowed 7 ppg.
Alabama
In Nick we trust! Mike Shula had a strange four year ride at Alabama, going 4-9 SU, 5-8 ATS in his first season, getting blasted with injuries during a 6-6 campaign in 2004, before a 10-2 campaign in 2005 and a 6-7 rebuilding year last fall. They gave a contract extension for Shula a year ago that paid him $1.550 million annually and extended the length of his contract through January 31, 2012. But all of that is up in smoke now, as Shula was let go and Nick Saban comes over after running the Miami Dolphins into the ground. He prefers the college game, and hopes to do for 'Bama what he did for LSU in 2003, winning a national title.
The final straw was a 4-game losing streak last fall to end the season, which included 24-16 home loss to Mississippi State as a 14-point favorite. Tide fans and alumni have seen enough. Saban is known as a great recruiter and a coach who likes a balanced offense, particularly a strong running attack. Alabama returns 9 starters on offense, including junior center Antoine Caldwell, who was named to the 2007 Rimington Trophy Spring Watch List. This was not a strong running team, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, and they lost power back Ken Darby.
Top recruit freshman RB Demetrius Goode will get thrown into the fire, and they have depth with Jimmy Johns (293 yards, 4.4 ypc), sophomore running back Glen Coffee, Roy Upchurch and Ali Sharrief providing a blend of speed and power. Fortunately, the passing game is loaded, led by junior quarterback John Parker Wilson. He was polished for a sophomore with 2,707 yards, 17 TDs, 10 picks. Senior WR D.J. Hall and (1,056 yards) and 6-foot-3 senior WR Keith Brown (590) form one of the SEC's best 1-2 receiving tandems. Senior WR Matt Caddell adds depth, and there is also Junior tight end Travis McCall (105 yards). Freshman QB Greg McElroy spent the spring as John Parker Wilson's backup.
Alabama senior football player WR Tyrone Prothro underwent a successful surgical procedure on his left leg and ankle on March 22. The procedure was for the purpose of removing scar tissue which was restricting range of motion of his ankle. It is hoped that the procedure will facilitate further improvement in his ongoing rehabilitation of a compound fracture he suffered on October 1, 2005. They hope he can recover in time for August.
5 starters return to a defense that allowed 19 points, 124 yards rushing per game. One of the top returners on defense is senior defensive lineman Wallace Gilberry. Senior CB Simeon Castille anchors the safety spot, and they like defensive back Rashad Johnson. One of the standouts on the defensive side of the ball in the spring scrimmage was freshman Brian Motley, who red-shirted last season. The defense was number one in scoring defense in the nation in 2005, allowing 10.7 points, 94.3 yards rushing (3.1 ypc) and just 160.8 passing.
Alabama was 8-3 "under" the total in 2004 and 9-3 under in 2005, ending up 22-14 "under" the total under Shula. Saban likes tough, physical defenses, too, and brings in defensive coordinator Kevin Steele. The good news is Bama plays 7 home games and only 4 road games before the finale against Auburn. The only tough road games for Saban are at Florida State and at Auburn.
Arkansas
Houston Nutt begins his 10th season as coach of the Razorbacks. Arkansas had a very young team in 2005 that wasn't as bad as that 4-7 record, either, with 216 yards rushing per game, and a defense that allowed just 3.6 yards per rush and 209 passing per game. They lost by 4 to Vandy and South Carolina, and lost just 19-17 at LSU. That proved to be the case last season as the Razorbacks played for the SEC title game in a stellar 10-4 SU, 5-8 ATS season. They are a power running team first, averaging 228 yards on the ground per contest.
We'll see how important offensive line play is to running games. Arkansas loses 3 key players to the O-line, but returns brilliant tailbacks Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. Junior tailback Darren McFadden exploded as a freshman, with 1,113 yards, 6.3 yards per carry and 11 TDs, then last fall he had 1,647 yards, 5.8 yards per carry and 14 TDs. Junior RB Felix Jones ran for 626 yards, 6.3 ypc as a freshman in 2005 and busted out with 1,168 yards last season, a sizzling 7.6 yards per carry! Throw in RB senior Peyton Hillis and sophomore Michael Smith and there is great running back speed, power and depth.
Quarterbacks Casey Dick and Nathan Emert will try to stabilize the spot after heralded former Arkansas quarterback Mitch Mustain transferred to USC. Junior QB Casey Dick led the team with 991 yards, 9 TDs, 6 INTs in this run-first offense, but completed just 49% of his passes. Senior WR Marcus Monk (962) led the team in receiving, a 6-foot-6 receiver who was second on the team with 569 yards and 6 TDs as a freshman in 2004. Junior WR Damian Williams (235 yards) is back, and senior RB Peyton Hillis caught 38 and 19 passes in each of the last two seasons, second best on the team each time.
The defense is experienced, with linebacker Ryan Powers, end Chris Wade and tackles Cord Gray and Malcolm Sheppard, though they lost DE Jamaal Anderson and cornerback Chris Houston to the NFL. They like junior DT Ernest Mitchell up front, with DT senior Marcus Harrison, senior LB Weston Dacus, and hard hitting junior LB Freddie Fairchild. The Razorbacks have been a strong team at home in recent years, but very poor on the road. Last fall they were 5-2 both home and away.
In 2004, Arkansas beat opponents by a 29-19 average at home (3-3 SU, 5-1 ATS), but gave up 32 ppg on the road (2-3 SU/ATS). In 2005, Arkansas beat opponents by a 31-19 average at home (3-3 SU, 2-3 ATS), but gave up 30 ppg on the road (1-4 SU/4-1 ATS). The schedule is easier (no USC), with only two tough road SEC games at Tennessee and Alabama. Note that Arkansas is 2-15 SU, 8-9 ATS as a dog the last three years.
Mississippi
It could be another long season for Ole Miss football. Head coach Ed Orgeron went 3-8 SU, 3-7 ATS in his first season as coach, and 4-8 last year. They lose linebacker Patrick Willis to the first round of the NFL draft and this offense has been a mess for two straight seasons. The Rebels averaged 13.5 points, 73.3 yards rushing, and 208.5 passing per game in 2005 and 15.7 points, 125 yards rushing, and 136 passing per game last fall.
The big story will be at quarterback. Sophomore QB Brent Schaeffer stepped in last fall, a transfer from Tennessee, who was rated by Rivals.com as a four-star prospect and the No. 7 dual-threat quarterback in the nation. In high school he threw for 2,177 yards and 24 touchdowns while adding 397 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns as a senior in 2003. But he was a bust as a freshman for Ole Miss, with 9 TDs, 10 picks while completing 47% of his passes. 6-4 senior QB Seth Adams had an excellent spring and is probably the frontrunner after throwing for 177 yards in 2006.
They return four starters along the offensive line, led by linemen junior LT Michael Oher, John Jerry and soph Reid Neely. Senior RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (999 yards, 4.3 ypc) is back along with senior RB Mico McSwain (140 yards, 5.2 ypc). Ole Miss will remain "multiple" in its offensive scheme, with the quarterbacks moving more out of the pocket than in recent years. All the receivers are back, but they didn't do much, led by sophomore WR Mike Wallace (410 yards), sophomore Marshay Green, and junior WR Dexter McCluster (232). The weak offense explains the 7-3 mark under the total.
The Ole Miss defense allowed 22 points, 159 yards rushing, 4.2 yards per carry and just 194 passing per game, but lost its top players. Orgeron installed a 4-3 alignment, which worked well, and they have a new defensive coordinator in John Thompson, who has brought a more aggressive style to the defense. Junior defensive lineman Peria Jerry, soph linebacker Rogers Loche, and juniors Brandon Thomas and Antonio Turner return. JUCO transfer LB Ashlee Palmer will get time on the strongside along with newcomers Brandon Thomas and Allen Walker. Orgeron is a hard-driving coach, but he has a lot of new pieces and too few game breakers on offense. Note that Ole Miss is 2-13 SU, 6-9 ATS its last 15 road games.
Mississippi State
Mississippi State has had 3-8, 3-8 and 3-9 seasons under head coach Sylvester Croom. They are a conservative, run-first offense, finishing 114th in the nation in scoring and 115th in total offense two years ago and just 18 points, 88 yards rushing per game last season. Mississippi State averaged 18.4 points, 88.6 yards rushing, 2.9 ypc, and 184 yards passing per game in 2006. The defense hasn't been bad, a physical unit, but the offense is what needs to be upgraded.
They are limited in talent and offense, but do play hard for Croom. After a 1-5 start in 2004, the Bulldogs pulled a shocker for the SEC ages, upsetting Florida 38-31 as a 23-point dog, then a week later they rolled over Kentucky 22-7. They didn't win again, but played Arkansas tough before losing 24-21 as a +10 dog. There were no huge upsets in 2005, but they shocked Alabama last season (on the road), winning 26-14 as a +14 road dog. Mississippi State was 1-6 Su, 1-5 ATS at home under Croom last fall.
On offense Croom installed the West Coast short passing attack. Junior QB Mike Henig is back after throwing 7 TDs, 9 picks. As a freshman in 2005 he passed for 621 yards, 2 TDs, 5 picks completing just 44% of his passes. One player who seems to be making strides on the other end of Henig's passes is transfer wide receiver Brandon McRae, who Croom called "one of our top two receivers right now." McRae sat out the '06 season at State after leading Morehead State in receiving as a true freshman. The Chester, Va., native had 28 catches for 361 yards and one touchdown in 2005.
Wide receiver Co-Eric Riley comes aboard, joining leading receiver senior Tony Burks (850 yards, 5 TDs). Junior RB Brandon Thornton (230 yards) is back along with sophomore HB Anthony Dixon, who had a good freshman campaign with 668 yards, 4.0 ypc. Croom moved junior Jeremy Jones, a tight end by trade, to fullback. The tight end position is deep in experienced senior leadership, and Croom was searching for a way to get Jones on the playing field. The 6-2, 275-pounder has played in nine games and started once at tight end. He brings blocking ability and receiver's hands to the backfield position. They like offensive tackle Mark Melichar, a 6-5, 275-pound redshirt freshman who is being given every opportunity to get in the mix at right tackle.
The 2006 defense was very good, allowing 18 points, 108 yards rushing, just 3.5 ypc, and 189 passing per game, though only 5 starters are back. Another area that drew Croom's experimentation was the interior defensive line, with defensive ends Charles Burns and Cortez McCraney moving inside to tackle. Burns has played in 22 career games, and has started twice, but all his work has come on the edge of the defensive line. McCraney, a 6-4, 262-pound junior, sat out last fall after transferring from Memphis.
Two newcomers to watch at linebacker are junior Dominic Douglas and true freshman K.J. Wright. Douglas led Hinds (Miss.) Community College in solo tackles last season. Senior Gabe O'Neal is at weakside linebacker, while mammoth junior college tackle Jessie Bowman comes aboard at 6-1, 315-pounds. He will be a key up front for Mississippi State. The schedule is not easy, opening against LSU with Auburn right around the corner. The rebuilding job is going to take a lot longer as there aren't many winnable games this fall.
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