College Football 2007 M-West Preview
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2007 Mountain West Conference Preview
T.C.U.
Undervalued again! TCU went 11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS two years ago and a sizzling 11-2 SU, 9-3 ATS last season. That's 18-6 ATS the last two years. Two years ago we predicted TCU to win the Mountain West in its first season. The Horned Frogs enjoyed a memorable 2005 campaign, at 11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS. They upset Oklahoma 17-10 as a 24-point road dog in the opener and finished 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS in the Mountain West. Last season we wrote, "They are talented enough to challenge for the title again." They came in second to the BYU-express, but still went 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS in the conference and routed Northern Illinois in the Poinsettia Bowl, 37-7.
Coach Gary Patterson likes offensive balance and in 2006 the Frogs averaged 29 points, 194 yards rushing, 4.5 ypc, and 213 pass yards! They lost QB Jeff Ballard, but not to worry: sophomore QB Marcus Jackson is a terrific talent, a mobile QB who passed for 386 yards, 2 TDs, one INT last fall and ran for 53 yards. Redshirt freshmen QBs Zack Eskridge and Andy Dalton are in the mix for the No. 2 spot. TCU is 14-2 SU, 12-4 ATS the last two years in MWC play!
All in all 6 starters return on offense, led by junior RB Aaron Brown (801 yards, 5.2 ypc, 9 TDs) and backups junior RB Detrick James and sophomore Joseph Turner (6.9 yards per carry). Brown also caught 34 passes for 455 leads, second on the team in receptions and receiving yards. Senior WR Donald Massey (332 yards) will get more passes as will 6-4 junior TE Shae Reagan (300 yards). The offense should be strong again.
The defense is even better, with 9 starters back, led by defensive ends senior Tommy Blake and senior Chase Ortiz as well as junior linebacker Jason Phillips. Only USC, with four Lombardi Award candidates, has more players on the list than TCU. Blake is one of nine players to appear on the list for the second consecutive year. Blake led the Mountain West Conference last season with 16.5 tackles for a loss while tying for the league lead with seven sacks. A unanimous first-team All-MWC selection, Blake earned Defensive Most Valuable Player honors in the 37-7 Poinsettia Bowl victory over Northern Illinois.
Ortiz is a two-time first-team All-MWC pick. His 11.0 tackles for a loss last season placed second in the league to Blake. He was the 2005 MWC leader in both sacks (9.0) and stops for a loss (14.0). Phillips, a junior from Waller, Texas, was second on the Frogs with 73 tackles while being named first-team All-MWC last season. In 2005, he became the first freshman defensive player in MWC history to be a first or second-team all-league selection when he was a second-team pick. This defense allowed 12 points, 60 yards rushing, 2.2 yards per carry, and 174 pass yards per contest!
Back in 2005, TCU was first in the nation in turnover margin and allowed just 18.6 points per game 2.8 yards per rush! They have experience at linebacker, with a deep unit, anchored by senior David Hawthorne and former LSU transfer senior LB Darius Ingram. They open the season against Baylor, at Texas and at Air Force, so there are no early cupcakes. Trips to Stanford and BYU also are challenging. The BYU and Utah games are revenge matchups. They are talented enough to challenge for the title and carry an 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS run into the new season.
Utah
After an unforgettable 2004 season at Utah, with a 12-0 SU, 10-5 ATS mark and five players selected in the NFL draft, Utah dropped to 7-5 (4-4 in the MWC) and 8-5 SU/8-4 ATS the last two seasons under coach Kyle Whittingham. Utah returns 45 lettermen - while losing just 16 - from last year's 8-5, Armed Forces Bowl champion team. The Utes return 9 starters on offense and 7 on defense, including quarterback Brian Johnson (2004-05) and kicker David Carroll (2004). Johnson started in 10 games in 2005 before suffering a season-ending knee injury. He used a medical redshirt last fall. Carroll was the starting kicker in 2004 before leaving for an LDS church mission.
The offense is strong under offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig (Oregon 2002-04, Fresno State 2001), who favors the shotgun and a spread offense. Utah averaged 28 points, 140 yards rushing, 4.0 ypc, and 228 passing. Senior QB Brian Johnson didn't play last season, but before he got injured in 2005 he was outstanding with 2,892 yards passing, 63.6%, 18 TDs and 7 INTs. Johnson is a mobile quarterback and ran for 478 yards, second on the team in 2005. He sat out 2006 to rehab his knee.
They have experienced targets returning in senior WR Derrek Richards (717 yards), sophomore WR Brent Casteel (600 yards, 10 TDs), junior WR Bradon Godfrey and junior WR Marquis Wilson (398). OC Ludwig says he will introduce the tight end back into the offense more this season. A couple of sophomore TEs will see time in 6-foot-6 Chris Joppru and Lance Bordeleau. Junior RB Darrel Mack and senior Mike Liti step into the backfield, which loses its top back.
The kicking game returns virtually intact and is highlighted by 2006 MWC Special Teams co-MVP and Armed Forces Bowl MVP Louie Sakoda as the punter and place-kicker. In fact, Utah will have two of the nation's best kickers in spring camp with the return of Carroll, who as a true freshman in 2004, made 5-of-5 field goals and 44-of-44 PATS for Utah's 12-0 Fiesta Bowl champion team. Utah is 20-5 SU, 16-6-1 ATS its last 25 home games!
6 starters return to a defense that allowed 19 points, 106 yards rushing, just 3.1 ypc, and 215 yards passing. New numbers of note include part-time starting senior linebacker Alex Puccinelli, senior middle linebacker Loma Olevao and defensive back Josh Woods. Two mid-year junior college transfers are defensive lineman Koa Misi and defensive back Deshawn Richard. Utah was 8-3 "over" the total in 2004, 7-5 over in 2005 and 7-5 over last season. They play Oregon State, UCLA and at Louisville before October 6! Road games at TCU, BYU and Colorado State could derail any MWC title hopes, though they are talented enough to be in the running.
New Mexico
Rocky Long and his Lobos are in a bit of a dilemma this season. Yes, 7 starters return on offense and 8 on defense, but they are off a 6-7 SU, 8-4 ATS campaign and QB Kole McKamey announced he wouldn't take a medical redshirt to come back. So sophomore QB Donovan Porterie will handle the reigns. Porterie saw time as a freshman, passing for 967 yards, 6 TDs, 2 picks, but needs to improve a 53% completion percentage. The offense averaged just 114 yards rushing (3.4 ypc) and 196 passing in Mountain West play.
Michigan State's offensive coordinator and tight ends coach comes aboard as the new offensive coordinator at New Mexico. Michigan State ran a wide-open spread attack under John L. Smith, so look for a more aggressive Lobo offense. Last year New Mexico had offensive coordinator Bob Toledo and his pro-style offense, but Toledo has moved on. Senior WR Travis Brown (867 yards) led the team and is back, so this passing offense should be better.
The ground game should also be much better, with a terrific offensive line (one with plenty of size) and the return of junior RB Rodney Ferguson. He ran for 1,234 yards, 4.9 yards per carry, as a sophomore, while catching 28 passes for 281 yards. RBs senior Martelius Epps and junior Paul Baker add backfield depth. The backup QB situation is deep with senior Bryan Clampitt, true freshmen Brad Gruner, Kevin Chavez or Blair Peterson.
8 starters return on defense, to a unit that was great against the run (3.5 ypc allowed) but has allowed 237 and 253 pass yards the last two seasons. Coach Long preaches aggressive defense and the Lobos have been very strong the last five years. They use an unorthodox 3-3-5 defense at times. New Mexico has led the Mountain West in sacks in 5 of the last 7 seasons. The schedule is not so bad, until late season games at TCU and at Utah. UNM made its fourth bowl appearance in the past five seasons in 2006, meeting San Jose State in the inaugural New Mexico Bowl, and another bowl game is likely. They should also be in the running for the MWC title, though probably will come up a bit short.
BYU
Former defensive coordinator Bronco Mendenhall took over BYU in 2005, and the Cougars busted out last season with a sizzling 11-2 SU, 9-3 ATS campaign. The offense was electric, averaging 36.8 points, 142 yards rushing and 323 passing! But key offensive players are gone in QB John Beck, TE Jonny Harline and RB Curtis Brown, along with offensive line coach Jeff Grimes to Colorado. BYU is 14-7 OVER the total the last two years with a deadly offense.
But what will that offense look like in 2007? Four starters return to the offensive line, including former freshman All-American G Dallas Reynolds, with junior RB Fui Vakapuna (445 yards, 4.8 ypc) and junior RB Manase Tonga stepping in for Brown. Sophomore QB Max Hall was named Brigham Young's starting quarterback. Hall transferred from Arizona State last year, and could not play last fall because of NCAA transfer rules and missed the 2005 season while serving a church mission.
QB Brenden Gaskins will back Hall up but did not see any time last season with this team. BYU QB Cade Cooper was in the mix, but will transfer. Cooper transferred from Snow College after last season and competed for the starting job during spring practice. But he injured his foot in a scrimmage and was going to redshirt this fall.
Senior WR McKay Jacobson (547 yards) returns, and the offense gets back 2004 freshman All American wide receiver Austin Collie and tight end Dennis Pitta, who didn't play last season. Both Collie and Pitta played significantly during their freshmen seasons for the 2004 Cougars in a different offensive scheme under former coach Gary Crowton. Senior WR Matt Allen (420 yards) and junior WR Michael Reed (339) also played last season.
Seven of 11 return on defense. The defense switched to a 3-4 scheme last season and was awesome, allowing 14.7 points and just 3.6 yards per rush. Sophomore NT Russell Tialavea and junior defensive back Scott Johnson return, and they like freshman Jadon Wagner. The secondary has experience, with senior FS Quinn Gooch and senior Dave Tafuna. The defense will have to lead the way if they want to defend their Mountain West championship. BYU has a tough schedule, with opening games against Arizona, UCLA, and Tulsa, and MWC road games at New Mexico and at Wyoming. Getting TCU and Utah at home is a plus.
Wyoming
Wyoming is a Wild Card team in the Mountain West for 2007. The defense was sensational last fall, allowing just 106 yards rushing and 156 yards passing per game. The defense returns 6 starters and the offense 7 for fifth-year head coach Joe Glenn. Wyoming concluded the 2006 season with a 6-6 overall record and a 5-3 conference mark. UW tied for third place with Utah in the nine-team Mountain West Conference. That is the highest finish for the Cowboys in conference play in the eight years they have been members of the MWC. Not bad for a rebuilding year.
Senior QB Jacob Doss (7 TDs, 5 INTs) started the first 5 games last season, but was benched in the OT loss to Syracuse. Redshirt freshman Karsten Sween replaced him and led the Cougars the rest of the season, finishing with 1,304 yards, 60% completions, 9 TDs and 8 INTs. Sween is talented and should continue to improve. Senior WR Michael Ford (674 yards) and senior WR Hoost Marsh (280) return for the sophomore QB, along with 2006 Second Team All-MWC selections senior TE Wade Betschart.
The young QB won't have to carry the offense, either, as junior RB Wynel Seldon (610 yards) and senior RB Devin Moore (574) return, helping the Cowboys to 132 rushing yards per contest. Glenn likes aggressive defenses up front, with various blitzes and zones. They improved significantly last fall, and will be led by Ward Dobbs, a junior inside linebacker and senior cornerback Julius Stinson. LBs senior Sean Claffey, sophomore Weston Johnson, junior Mike Juergens anchor the deep linebacking slot.
The secondary has new faces, juniors Quincy Rogers and Michael Ray having to step in as starters. The quick linebacking corps is the strength of the defense. Aric Goodman, a sophomore place-kicker from Englewood, Colo, is reliable (7-of-13 from 30-49 yards). Road games at Boise, Utah and at Colorado State will be a challenge. They could be a surprise team in the conference and a bowl game is not out of the question.
Colorado State
Colorado State has stumbled the last three seasons, at 4-7 in 2004, 6-6 in 2005 and 4-8 SU, 4-7 ATS last season. Sonny Lubick begins his 15th season as head coach. Lubick has won or shared the conference title in six of the last 14 years, and has been to 9 bowl games, but he is under the gun this year after three poor seasons. Last year was a mess because of a terrible offensive line (76 yards rushing per game, just 2.5 yards per carry) and the injury to RB Kyle Bell. Bell had a great 2005, but was knocked out for the year with a knee injury four days before the 2006 opener. It's no wonder the ground game ranked 113th in the nation.
In 2007, the Rams will have 20 returning starters on the roster, 10 on both sides of the ball. Senior QB Caleb Hanie is back after passing for 2,427 yards, 11 TDs, 12 picks while completing 61% of his tosses. There is a ton of talented receivers back, including senior WR Johnny Walker (586 yards), senior WR Damon Morton (822) and tight end Kory Sperry (380) are all fine receiving targets. The Rams carry an 8-3 run under the total into the new season because of that weak offense.
But there's no question the passing game will be better only if they get something out of the running game. Running back junior Kyle Bell missed all of last season due to a knee injury suffered days before the season-opener. Bell underwent surgery, and saw limited action in the spring and no contact. In 2005 he rushed for 1,288 yards (second in the Mountain West Conference in rushing) and 10 touchdowns. Bell returns as a junior in 2007, having used last season as a redshirt. RBs Gartrell Johnson and Michael Myers are back but did little behind this offensive line.
In 2006 defensively the Rams allowed 21.9 points, but 149 yards rushing per game! They allowed a whopping 183 yards rushing in Mountain West play. In 2004 they allowed 221 yards rushing per game, and in 2005 it was more of the same, allowing 30 points and 222.8 yards rushing, a whopping 5.1 yards per carry. So despite 10 starters back on defense, they haven't been able to stop the run. In 2005 Colorado State finished 117th in the nation in run defense, hurt by poor tackling and poor linebacker play. A defensive end, senior Jesse Nading, figures to anchor the team's defensive line along with returning starters Wade Landers, senior DT Blake Smith and Erik Sandie.
Landers lines up at end opposite Nading while Smith and Sandie play inside. Linebacker junior Jeff Horinek was among the team's tackle leaders last season and plays in the middle, along with senior LB Nathan Pauly and junior LB Sedric Patterson. Junior safety Klint Kubiak led the team in tackles last season and is joined in the secondary by two other returning starters, safety Mike Pagnotta and cornerback Darryl Williams. CSU also returns punter Jimmie Kaylor, a first-team all-league pick in 2005, and kicker Jason Smith. The schedule is brutal, as the Rams face Colorado, TCU, Cal and Houston! A 0-4 start might have the wolves at Lubick's door!
Air Force
Air Force begins a new era with Troy Calhoun taking over as head coach. He replaces Fisher DeBerry, who had been running the Falcons for 27 years. Calhoun was the offensive coordinator for the Houston Texans and brings in a pro-style attack instead of the triple option attack. 6 starters are back on offense and 8 on defense, but does the new coach have a quarterback capable of running a pro-attack?
Sure, why not senior QB Shaun Carney? He has been starting since his freshman season of 2004 and last season Carney passed for 1,192 yards (60%), with 12 TDs, 3 INTs and was second in rushing with 618 yards, 8 rushing TDs in the 'Fishbone' option. It's safe to say he's a great athlete and can run and pass well. In 2005 Carney passed for 1,393 yards (64%), 7 TDs, 7 INTs and led the team in rushing with 710 yards, 11 rushing TDs. In 2004, as a freshman, Carney passed for 1,315 yards, 11 TDs, 6 INTs and led the team in rushing with 596 yards, 6 TDs.
The running game has experience and depth (227 yards per game last fall) with senior RB Chad Hall (784 yards), senior RB Ryan Williams (442) and senior RB Chad Smith (162). It's the new-look passing game that is in question because of wide outs. Senior WR Mark Root is 6-foot-2 and led the Falcons with 314 yards, while junior WR Spencer Armstrong is largely untested.
They've allowed 31 ppg in 2004 and 2005, and gave up 25 per game last fall. 8 starters return to a unit that was very good against the run, allowing 124 yards and 3.8 yards per rush in MWC play. The defense has senior Jared Baxley and senior S Bobby Giannini. The secondary has had trouble the last few years, and last year they were torched by Tennessee, Colorado State and even UNLV. They were 7-3 "over" the total in 2004, 7-4 "over" in 2005 and 6-6 over/under last year. That's 20-13 over the total the last 3 years.
San Diego State
SDSU head coach Chuck Long took over last season after guiding Oklahoma's offense the previous few years as offensive coordinator. Injuries decimated the team as the Aztecs averaged just 270 total yards and 14 points a game. While injuries hurt the offense, you can't ignore the fact that SDSU was awful on defense, giving up 29 points and 188 rush yards per game in Mountain West play. On paper, the Aztecs should be better, with 9 starters back on offense and a good recruiting class. But is Long a capable head coach?
We'll get a better answer to that this season. Long has a very good returning quarterback in senior Kevin O'Connell. O'Connell only passed for 101 yards because of a thumb injury, but looks to return to his sophomore form of 2005 when he threw for 2,663 yards, 62% completions, with 19 TDs and only 12 picks. He also ran for 402 yards! That was a strong SDSU offense, averaging 27 points, 147.5 yards rushing, 231.6 passing per contest. In 2006, backup junior QB Darren Mougey (1 TD, 6 picks) also got injured (shoulder) and then-freshman QB Kevin Craft simply wasn't ready (4 TDs, 6 picks). Player of the year in San Diego County freshman quarterback Ryan Lindley is aboard, too.
The mess of 2006 is behind them all! Running back senior Lynell Hamilton anchors the ground game, and ran for just 145 yards because of injuries. In 2005 he ran for 819 yards, leading the team. There is depth with sophomore RB Atiyyah Henderson (764 yards, 4.4 ypc) and senior running back Brandon Bornes (252). Senior WR Brett Swain (528 yards) is a fine target and there is depth with senior WR Alex Ghebreselassie and soph Tobias Shanks. Offensive line and defensive backs were the two most important areas in recruiting that Long focused on.
The defense returns only 4 starters, with senior DE Antwan Applewhite and senior Nick Osborn anchoring the line up front. Junior linebackers Russell Allen and LB Andrew Schantz add speed near the line and freshman linebacker Miles Burris could come in and be an impact player. The secondary is wide-open. Defensive end Mike Snead could move to safety. The schedule is tough, though, as they OPEN the season at Washington State and at Arizona State! Back to back road games at Colorado State and at Utah will make a winning season difficult. SDSU is 3-16 SU, 6-13 ATS its last 19 road games.
UNLV
Will UNLV be better in Year 3 of the head coach Mike Sanford era? They can't be any worse, at 4-19 SU, 8-14 ATS in his two seasons. Sanford had a reputation of running productive, wide-open spread offenses at Utah, but his Rebels haven't caught on yet. Coaching changes were made for 2007, with Todd Berry, the former Army head coach and Miami quarterback coach, taking over the offense and quarterbacks. This offense averaged just 19 points and 89 yards rushing.
With 8 starters back on offense and 6 on defense, perhaps this is a year to move forward. The offense has former USC transfer junior QB Rocky Hinds. The mobile Hinds was up and down, finishing with 8 TDs, 13 picks and 2,148 yards. Hinds is off a torn ACL and didn't practice in the spring. Some good news is that all his top receivers are back, led by junior WR Casey Flair (816 yards), sophomore WR Ryan Wolfe (911 yards, 5 TDs) and senior WR Aaron Straiten.
The running game has small, quick tailback David Peeples, who ran for 519 yards, though just 3.9 yards per carry, and 7 TDs. They need a bruising back to compliment him and may have found one in Frank Summers, a JC transfer from Laney College in California. He began his college career at Cal. Summers ran for 1,515 yards in 2005 and 965 last season at Laney. He should help a Rebel team that was last in the Mountain West in third-down conversions (31.7%) and red zone offense (66.7%).
Sanford likes a wide-open spread attack, as in 2003 and 2004 he was offensive coordinator at Utah, which went 21-2 overall and 13-1 in the Mountain West Conference during his time in Salt Lake City. In fact, the 2004 Utes finished ranked fourth in the nation and made history by crashing the elite Bowl Championship Series and earning a trip to the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl. But nothing close to that has been seen at UNLV thus far.
The defense was a mess, giving up 31.8 points, 161 yards rushing and 226 passing per contest. They are not big up front, though the linebacker position is decent with starter senior Beau Bell, while junior DE Jeremy Geathers returns. 6-foot-4 DE Thor Pili comes aboard, a former Oregon signee. The secondary lost its best players, including shutdown corner John Guice and former USC starter Eric Wright, who jumped to the NFL draft. Senior CB Mil'Von James, a former UCLA transfer, returns and they add JC transfers CBs Geoffrey Howard and Nehemiah Mundy. Mundy originally signed with Washington State and has spent the last two years focused on academics.
UNLV is a poor 0-12 SU/2-11 ATS on the road the last two seasons! They need to survive a rough September travel schedule, playing Wisconsin, Hawaii and Utah. Road games at Reno, Air Force, Wyoming, TCU and New Mexico make another losing season likely. The Rebels are 6-28 SU, 10-22 ATS the last three years!
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