College Football 2007 Big 12 Preview
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2007 Big 12 (North) Preview
Missouri
Wow! Mizzou was explosive offensively last season, averaging 30 points, 149 yards rushing and 276 yards passing. And they return 8 starters on offense! Head Coach Gary Pinkel's squad is coming off an eight-win season and its third bowl game appearance in the last four seasons. The Tigers return 15 starters in all from a year ago (eight on offense, five on defense, two specialists).
Pinkel has an ace in junior quarterback Chase Daniel, who ended his sophomore year with school records in passing touchdowns (28), passing yards (3,527) and total offense (3,906).
Mizzou returns 8 starters from a unit that ranked eighth in the nation in total offense a year ago (425.6 yards per game). Mizzou returns three starters on the offensive line. That trio includes seniors Adam Spieker (center) and Tyler Luellen (left tackle), who will both be in their fourth year as starters, along with junior Ryan Madison (left guard). A fourth veteran lineman with plenty of starting experience also returns to the fold, in senior right guard Monte Wyrick, who made seven starts a year ago.
Mizzou is stocked at the tailback position. Leading the way is senior Tony Temple (5.5 ypc), who had a break-out season by rushing for 1,063 yards and seven touchdowns. He eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark with a 194-yard, two-touchdown outing in the Sun Bowl against Oregon State, and he enters the 2007 campaign as the leading returning rusher in the Big 12 Conference. Junior Jimmy Jackson and senior Marcus Woods add depth.
They have outstanding height and depth at wide out, with senior WR William Franklin (829 yards), 6-foot-6 junior tight end Chase Coffman (638 yards, 9 TDs) and senior TE Martin Rucker (511). Junior WR Tommy Saunders moved into the starting lineup in 2006 at the Z-receiver spot, and he delivered with 25 catches for 271 yards and two touchdowns. Sophomores Jared Perry and Danario Alexander will slide over to the H-receiver slot, where they'll look to build on their freshman years of a year ago.
5 starters return on defense and they have something to prove, after giving up 34 to Nebraska and a 39-38 Sun Bowl collapse to Oregon State. All that was during the team's finish, closing out the year with four losses in five games. The Tigers ranked 4th in the Big 12 Conference in scoring defense (19.54 ppg) and allowed more than 21 points just four times on the season. In all, Mizzou ranked 3rd in the conference (39th nationally) in total defense, allowing 320.23 yards per game - almost a 50 yard-per-game improvement from 2005.
Senior nose tackle Lorenzo Williams and junior tackle Ziggy Hood will look to lead the way up front. Williams was an honorable-mention All-Big 12 pick in 2006 after registering getting career highs in tackles (53), tackles for loss (10.5), and sacks (6.0). Junior Stryker Sulak steps in at defensive end, along with junior Tommy Chavis, while junior LB Brock Christopher anchors the linebacking corps.
The secondary loses both safeties, but the Tigers return starters at both cornerback positions for 2007, led by senior standout CB Darnell Terrell, earning honorable mention All-Big 12 honors, and sophomore CB Hardy Ricks. Pinkel has experimented with some no-huddle and spread formation tactics used by Urban Meyer at Utah and Florida, so the offense will score plenty. Mizzou should start 4-0 facing Illinois, at Ole Miss, Western Michigan and Illinois State. A three-game stretch against Nebraska, at Oklahoma and Texas Tech will be key. Missouri plays its home games on turf, and note they are 12-28 SU their last 40 road games. Missouri is 19-8 SU, 14-10 ATS its last 27 home games, 3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS its last 9 road games.
Nebraska
It appears Bill Callahan can coach! It took a while to find the right personnel for his West Coast offense, but there are no doubters now. The Huskers were sensational in 2006 averaging over 30 points, with 170 yards rushing and 244 yards passing per game. The 2007 team is loaded with veterans on offense (8 starters back), and 6 on a defense that allowed 18 ppg. They won the North, got to the Big 12 title game, and even more good news is that Callahan has done a terrific recruiting job, so the future looks promising.
QB Zach Taylor is gone and fit so well with Callahan's West Coast offense. They have two talented options with mobile junior QB Joe Ganz (3 TDs, no picks, 122 yards) and big senior Sam Keller. Keller was terrific at Arizona State, but lost his job to freshman whiz Rudy Carpenter, so he transferred to Nebraska. Junior QB Beau Davis and freshman quarterback Patrick Wittis are also in the mix. Their top targets are back, spreading the ball around to senior WR Maurice Purify (34 grabs, 630 yards), junior WR Nate Swift (22 grabs, 374 yards, 9 TDs), senior WR Terrence Nunn (42, 597, 3 TDs), and WR senior WR Frantz Hardy (14, 317).
The running game is solid, averaging just 170 yards per game, 4.3 yards per carry, after being last in the Big 12 in rushing in 2005. RB Brandon Jackson (989 yards, 5.3 ypc) left early for the NFL, so more will be asked of junior RB Marlon Lucky (728, 5.2 ypc). Nebraska running back Kenny Wilson broke his leg moving a television and will likely be out for the season. Callahan said he hopes Wilson takes a redshirt year and returns to the team in 2008. Major Culbert, a converted safety, and newcomer Marcus Mendoza saw time at running back in the spring.
The defense made great strides last season, allowing 215 pass yards per game and 3.7 yards per rush. They lost DE Adam Carriker to the NFL, but return junior NT Ndamukong Suh up front, junior defensive lineman Ty Steinkuhler, along with 2 starters in the secondary. Cornerback Zack Bowman missed the 2006 season following surgery on his left knee and hopes to be back. Nebraska hasn't been a good road team under Callahan, at 6-9 SU, 6-8 ATS, but went 6-2 SU/5-2 ATS at home last season. Nebraska has an easier schedule, playing only at Texas and at home to USC. September games against ACC champ Wake Forest and USC will be a challenge, as well as road games at Colorado, Texas, Kansas and Missouri.
Kansas
The Jayhawks (6-6) failed to make a bowl after getting flattened 42-17 at Missouri in the finale. With 6 starters back on offense and 7 on defense, coach Mark Mangino appears to have enough pieces in place for a better season. The Jayhawks were all about running the football last fall (176 yards rushing per game), and the defense was blitz happy, taking away the run but allowing too much single coverage downfield. The result was 274 passing yards allowed per contest, and 28 ppg in Big 12 play.
Fifth-year head coach Mark Mangino is fortunate to have sophomore quarterback Kerry Meier back, who had a decent freshman campaign with 13 TDs, 10 INTs and 1,193 yards. All his top targets are back in senior WR Marcus Henry (316 yards), junior WR Dexton Fields (455 yards) and senior TE Derek Fine (355, 5 TDs). The running game lost RB Jon Cornish and his 1,457 yards, so there is work to be done. On the offensive line they lost four seniors including the center, both guards and a rotating guard. QB Meier was the second leading rusher with 344 yards, and sophomore RB Jake Sharp and senior Brandon McAnderson will step in. The passing game and the young QB might be the strength of the offense this fall.
On the other side of the line, the defensive line has its run-stuffers back, led by senior DT James McLinton and junior DT Todd Hasellhorst. They finished 11th in the nation in total defense and third against the run in 2005 and allowed just 3.5 yards per rush last season. Maxwell Onyegbule has moved from linebacker to defensive end. Sophomore linebacker Jake Schermer and junior linebacker Joe Mortensen are solid, but the secondary was awful.
Three starters return to the secondary, including All-Big 12 junior CB Aqib Talib, so they should be better. There are also quality junior college players for the secondary in Kendrick Harper and Patrick Resby. Kansas is 11-3 SU, 7-5 ATS at home the last two seasons, but on the road the team is 2-8 SU, 5-5 ATS the last two years. The Jayhawks open the season with 4 straight home games, most of them cupcakes, so a bowl game is likely.
Colorado
Colorado really wasn't as bad as that 2-10 SU, 3-8 ATS record might suggest. The passing offense was horrible, averaging 16 points, but the rush offense and defense were terrific, with the defense allowing 22 points per contest and 3.3 yards per rush, while the kicking game was outstanding. They lost games by 1, 3, 4 and 5 points. So this team has had two frustrating years, with the 2005 Gary Barnett fiasco while getting whipped 70-3 in the Big 12 title game to Texas as the team quit on Barnett.
Dan Hawkins (former Boise State coach) begins his second season. Hawkins ran wide-open offenses at Boise, so last season with the Buffaloes must have been particularly frustrating. 8 starters return on offense, including mobile senior QB Bernard Jackson (7 TDs, 7 INTs). Jackson ran for 676 yards, 4.4 yards per carry. The ground averaged 172 yards per game and also returns junior tailback Hugh Charles (779 yards, 5.6 ypc).
The Buffs were 116th in the nation in passing offense. Sophomore QB Cody Hawkins, the coach's son, is the future of the passing game, and JUCO transfer junior QB Nick Nelson is also in the mix if he can switch from a shotgun-style offense to Colorado's West Coast attack. Most of the playmakers at wide out are weak, though, so Colorado has a lot of kids battling for time, like junior wide receiver Patrick Williams (303 yards) and sophomore TE Riar Geer. Sophomore Cha'pelle Brown played nickel back for the Buffs in his true freshman season and has switched to wide receiver for this fall. Senior Joe Sanders has switched from outside linebacker to tight end.
The defense has 7 starters back and was very strong. Senior linebacker Jordon Dizon and junior linebacker R.J. Brown were named captains for the 2007 season, along with senior quarterback Bernard Jackson. Defensive end Drew Hudgins will look to thrust himself into the defensive lineup which loses two starting defensive ends from the 2006 campaign, Abraham Wright and Walter Boye-Doe. A better season is likely, though note they were 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS on the road and 2-9 SU, 2-9 ATS on the road the last two years. Still, don't underestimate Colorado: The Buffaloes are 29-20 against the spread as a dog since 1998!
Kansas State
Kansas State improved to 7-6 in 2006 under first-year Head Coach Ron Prince. They made a bowl game, getting flattened by Rutgers 37-10. They lost defensive coordinator Raheem Morris to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so Tim Tibesar moves from special teams to defensive coordinator. With 8 starters back on both sides of the ball, including the starting QB, the Wildcats are hoping for another winning season.
The offense averaged 115 yards rushing (4.0 yards per carry) and 200 passing yards per game. Sophomore QB Josh Freeman (6 TDs, 15 INTs) struggled early as a freshman, but got hot down the stretch as the team went 3-1 SU/ATS to end the regular season. They run a pro-set offense similar to Al Groh's Virginia, which is where Prince came from.
The ground game should be productive with 5-foot-7 sophomore Leon Patton, who led the team with 609 yards, 5.6 yards per carry, and senior RB James Johnson (403 yards). The receivers are talented with senior WR Jordy Nelson (39 grabs, 547 yards, 1 TD) and senior WR Daniel Gonzalez. They are loaded at tight end with senior TE Rashaad Norwood (35 yards) and 6-foot-6 sophomore TE Jeron Mastrud.
The defense will be fine with 8 starters back, including a strong linebacking corps and junior Alphonso Moran anchoring the defensive line. They need to improve a run defense that allowed 161 rushing yards per game in Big 12 play. 3 starters are back in a secondary that allowed just 197 pass yards per contest. Kansas State is a poor 3-10 SU/ATS on the road the last three seasons. The schedule is tough, though, with road games at Auburn, at Texas, at Oklahoma State, at Nebraska and Fresno State. A bowl game again might be a reach, but Prince did a terrific job in 2006 what was supposed to be a rebuilding year.
Iowa State
The Cyclones went in the tank in 2006 at 4-8 SU/3-8 ATS and so coach Dan McCarney was let go. So Gene Chizik takes over as the new coach. He has a terrific resume as a defensive coordinator, being an assistant head coach and defensive coordinator on Texas' 2005 national championship team and before that, he spent three years as defensive coordinator at Auburn earning the Frank Broyles Award as the nation's top assistant coach. Wayne Bolt will be the defensive coordinator and Robert McFarland is the new offensive coordinator.
They need an overhaul after getting beat by a 30-18 average last fall, with a defense that gave up 176 rushing yards per game in Big 12 play (1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS in the conference). 4 starters return on offense and 8 on defense. The offense has a very good quarterback in senior Bret Myers. Last season he threw for 2,546 yards, 12 TDs, 12 INTs while completing 56% of his passes. In 2004, the sophomore QB passed for 1,926 yards, 10 TDs, 6 picks while rushing for 331 yards, second most on the team. In 2005 he threw for 2,876 yards, 19 TDs, 10 INTs while completing 62% of his passes.
Senior WR Todd Blythe (1,000 yards, 9 TDs and 484 yards, 8 TDs the last two years) returns, along with junior WR R.J. Sumrall. The passing game should lead the way, as the running game lost its top players and will have to lean on junior TB Jason Scales (176 yards). The offensive line needs rebuilding (4 starters gone), and will turn to Reggie Stephens to blend with several JUCO transfers. They allowed 38 sacks!
The run defense was terrific two years ago, allowing just 3 yards per carry, but disintegrated in 2006. The return of senior DE Kurtis Taylor is a plus along with 8 starters such as senior LB Tyrone McKenzie. Three starting defensive backs return, along with junior S Chris Singleton.
Kansas was 8-3 OVER the total in 2005 but 8-3 UNDER last season. K-State plays 4 of their final 6 at home, but they also have a three-game mid-season road trip to Toledo, Nebraska and Texas Tech. Note that Iowa State is 4-16 SU/7-13 ATS on the road the last four seasons.
2007 Big 12 (South) Preview
Texas
Mack Brown followed up a national championship season with a 10-3 "rebuilding" season and a 26-24 Alamo bowl win over Iowa. Along the way they smacked Oklahoma again, 28-10, and averaged 36 ppg. The offense gets most of its key players back, so watch out! The Longhorns return 7 starters on both sides of the ball. Texas is 23-3 SU, 17-8 ATS the last two seasons and 5-0 SU/ATS its last 5 as a dog!
Sophomore QB Colt McCoy was outstanding as a freshman, passing for 2,570 yards, 29 TDs and 7 INTs while hitting 68%of his passes. The offense wasn't quite as deadly as the Texas offense was in 2005 (50 points, 275 yards rushing, 237 yards passing per game), but they averaged 36 points, 162 yards rushing and 228 passing. Texas is 18-7 OVER the total the last two seasons!
The running game is always a staple at Texas, led by a speedy back in Junior RB Jamaal Charles (831 yards, 5.3 ypc, 7 TDs) and 6-3, 270-pound fullback Henry Melton. The passing corps is deep, with 6-foot-5 senior WR Limas Sweed (801 yards, 12 TDs), senior WR Billy Pittman (456), and 6-foot-5 sophomore TE Jermichael Finley (372). There is enough skill position speed, height, depth and talent to keep the Longhorn offense cruising, as long as they can keep QB McCoy healthy.
Defensively, Texas allowed just 18 ppg, but they had some weak moments. The pass defense allowed 236 yards per game and a whopping 269 yards in Big 12 play. They lose three stars in the secondary, but the defensive front seven is awesome, allowing 62 rushing yards and 2.3 yards per carry! Senior NTs Frank Okam and Thomas Marshall anchor a terrific run-stuffing squad. Brian Ellis has moved inside and is looking quick.
You might say the schedule is easier, with no game with Ohio State for the first time since 2004, with only late season road games at Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. The October 6 battle with Oklahoma will be the first big test. The last six seasons after playing the Sooners (4 losses), the Longhorns are 46-6 SU/28-17-2 ATS the rest of the season!
Oklahoma
For a team that loses ace RB Adrian Peterson to the NFL and starting QB Paul Thompson (22 TDs, 11 INTs), you might think they'd be in for a decline after an 11-3 SU, 8-4 ATS season. Not so with the Sooners. 9 starters return on offense, 8 on defense, and kicker Garrett Hartley is one of the best in the nation. Coach Bob Stoops has another terrific RB in Allen Patrick (761 yards) and plenty of backfield options.
The offense has very good balance, after averaging 30 points, 171 yards rushing and 191 passing per game. Redshirt freshman QB Sam Bradford won the starting job. Bradford stands 6-foot-5 and weighs 213 pounds. He threw for 2,422 yards and 19 touchdowns in his senior season at Putnam City North High School in Oklahoma City before redshirting a year ago.
Junior QB Joey Halzle threw 15 passes last season and knows the system, and has competition for the backup job with freshman Keith Nichol. Junior WRs speedy Malcolm Kelly (62 grabs, 993 yards, 10 TDs) and Juaquin Iglesias (41, 514 yards) were outstanding as sophomores and they like WR Quentin Chaney.
The ground game is loaded not only in the backfield, but on the offensive line. Running back Allen Patrick stepped in last year, averaged 4.5 yards per carry and is back for his senior season. Sophomore RB Chris Brown and freshman Mossis Madu provide depth, and they have a new talent with redshirt freshmen RB DeMarco Murray. "Demarco was very impressive. He has been all along," Stoops said during spring drills.
As usual, Oklahoma has been about defense under Stoops. There are 8 starters back to a unit that allowed 3.3 yards per rush and 287 total yards per game (17 ppg, 9-5 under the total). Senior DT Carl Pendleton and sophomore DT DeMarcu Granger anchor a solid line, while linebackers Mike Reed and Lewis Bake anchor the always-fierce linebacking corps. The outstanding secondary returns 3 starters, so this defense is solid all-around.
Oklahoma was 7-2 SU, 5-2 ATS at home last season. The schedule is relatively easy, with home games against Miami, Missouri, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, and the road games not that difficult at Tulsa, Colorado, Iowa State and Texas Tech. They've lost 2 in a row to Texas and they could be 5-0 when they head to Dallas, October 6th for that showdown. A win there, and the Sooners have only 2 road games the rest of the way, so a national title-type season is a possibility.
Oklahoma State
The Cowboys begin their third season under Head coach Mike Gundy and his electric offense. On offense they go with a no-huddle at times and Oklahoma State is coming off a 7-6 season that included a 34-31 win over Alabama in the Independence Bowl. Oklahoma State finished the season ranked No. 16 in total offense (409.8 yards per game), No. 7 in rushing offense (208 yards per game), and No. 7 in scoring offense (35.23 points per game). Eighteen players, including specialists, who started the bowl game, will be back in 2007.
Expectations are high on the campus, with 8 starters back on an offense that averaged 208 yards rushing and 200 passing! Oklahoma State and Boise State were the only two schools in the country with a 200/200 average in 2006. Junior Bobby Reid (24 TDs, 11 INTs, 2,266 yards) leads the offense and rushed for 500 yards, fourth best on the team. Reid is a mobile quarterback who passed better than many expected. Oklahoma State returns five of its top six rushers.
It was the first year in which the Cowboys had four players rush for at least 500 yards. 5-foot-9 senior RB Dantrell Savage is back after running for 820 yards, a sizzling 6.5 ypc. Sophomore RB Keith Toston had a great freshman campaign with 631 yards (6 ypc), and junior RB Mike Hamilton accumulated 546. As a team, OSU ran for 2,704 yards, an increase of 1,011 yards from the previous season. Speedy senior WR Adarius Bowman makes the passing game go, with 1,181 yards, 12 TDs and a 19.7 yards per catch average in 2006. A familiar face who sat out last season due to injury is receiver Jeremy Broadway, who will be a redshirt sophomore in 2007. All in all, this offensive looks explosive.
On defense, the Cowboys return seven full-time starters and three more players who started at least three games. OSU's top two tacklers last season were freshmen (safety Andre Sexton and linebacker Patrick Lavine). New defensive coordinator Tim Beckman arrived in February from Ohio State, where he had been coaching cornerbacks. Before spending two years at Ohio State, Beckman served as defensive coordinator at Bowling Green. The defense allowed too many rush yards in Big 12 play (172 per game).
Marque Fountain and Nate Peterson saw ample playing time last season and combined for seven starts. They also combined for 12.5 sacks and 25 tackles behind the line of scrimmage. Peterson enters his senior season with 14.5 career sacks and is 10th all-time at OSU in that category. Fountain's 35 tackles last season were second among the Cowboy down linemen. Also in the fold is Tonga Tea, Jr. The Snow Community College transfer was rated by one recruiting service as the nation's top junior college defensive tackle. Linebacker is deep with Patrick Lavine and Chris Collins earning Freshman All-America honors.
The Cowboys return all four starters in the secondary with safeties Donovan Woods and Andre Sexton accompanied by Martel Van Zant and Jacob Lacey at the corners. OSU returns Perrish Cox, who finished 14th nationally in punt returns and No. 35 in kickoff returns. He had six returns that set up scores for OSU last season. The Cowboys return second-team all-Big 12 and second-team All-America punter Matt Fodge. OSU welcomes back placekicker Jason Ricks, who has yet to miss a field goal inside of 40 yards in his career and has 55- and 53-yarders to his credit. Road games at Georgia, A&M, Oklahoma and Nebraska will be a challenge, but who wants to face this offense? Yes, they were 8-4 over the total last fall and look like an offensive machine in 2007.
Texas A&M
Texas A&M Coach Dennis Franchione was under the gun for a strong 2006 season with many key players back. The Aggies delivered, starting 8-1 and finishing 9-4 SU/9-2 ATS, which included a 12-7 upset over Texas as a +13 dog. The stars are back, with 8 starters on offense and seven starters back on defense. The Aggies return four of five starters on the offensive line, and Franchione said senior-to-be Chris Yoder would have the first crack at landing the open starting job at guard.
The ground game is terrific, averaging 27.8 points, 207 yards rushing and 190 passing per game in 2006. Junior quarterback Stephen McGee gets the call behind center again. McGee is mobile, running for 666 yards in 2006 and passing for 2,295 yards, 12 TDs and 2 INTs. He completed 62% of his passes. The offensive line is deep behind seniors Kirk Elder and Chris Joder, and junior T Yemi Babalola.
The running game is loaded. Sophomore RB Mike Goodson exploded as a freshman, with 847 yards while averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Throw in junior RB Jorvorskie Lane (725 yards) and QB McGee, and the top three rushers return. The passing game has some new looks, but will lean on 6-foot-7 junior TE Martellus Bennett (497 yards). Former QB Jamie McCoy moves from quarterback to wide receiver. A key to watch on offense is place kicker, as standout Layne Neumann has graduated, so they look for former backup Matt Szymanski (just two of five FGs) to step up.
The defense was mostly hot, but at times cold, allowing 20 points per game. But they gave up 45 in a bowl to Cal and 24 points/186 yards rushing to Army. Yet, they held Texas to 7 points. Defensive linemen senior DE Chris Harrington, senior DE Jason Jack and senior DT Red Bryant return, along with defensive back senior CB Marquis Carpenter. Franchione announced several position changes including Lucas Patterson from offensive line to defensive line; Vince Williams from defensive line to offensive line; Jordan Pugh from cornerback to safety; Johnathan Batson from safety to cornerback and Kenny Brown from wide receiver to safety.
The pass defense allowed 304 yards in the air per game in 2005, the nation's worst pass defense, but improved dramatically to 190 yards per game last fall. Others with starting experience are defensive backs junior Danny Gorrer, junior Devin Gregg and senior FS Japhus Brown. A&M is 4-17 SU, 8-12 ATS the last four seasons as an underdog. The Aggies should start 3-0, but play September 20th at Miami, Florida. Before playing Texas in the finale, they play 4 of 5 games on the road, all in the Big 12. The offense is good enough to ensure another winning season and a bowl game, but the road schedule likely takes them out of any Big 12 title hunt.
Texas Tech
About the only things constant for the 2007 Red Raiders are the quarterback and the coach. Mike Leach has quite a system in place, plugging in players, going without an offensive playbook, while his pass-happy attack just keeps churning along. They've averaged 8 wins per season for the past five years and they're coming off an 8-5 season finishing with 369 yards passing and 32 points per game. Coach Mike Leach has done a great job with this program, but it's a bit of a rebuilding year with only 4 starters back on both sides of the ball.
Their high-flying offense starts with junior QB Graham Harrell, who finished his sophomore season with 4,555 yards, 66.8% completions, 38 TDs and 11 INTs. There are few experienced receivers with WRs Jarrett Hicks, Robert Johnson and Joel Filani gone. So the new "step up" kids will be senior WR Danny Amendola (487 yards) and senior WR Grant Walker (264), a former Purdue transfer. Junior WRs Eric Morris and Todd Walker add depth on a team that doesn't use a tight end.
The running game did a fine job replacing the valuable Taurean Henderson, as junior RB Shannon Woods stepped up, after he ran for 926 yards, 6.1 yards per carry! Sophomore RB Kobey Lewis is also in the mix. This offense averaged 32 points, 79 yards rushing and 369 yards passing. Note that Texas Tech averaged just 27 ppg on the road (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS), but 39 ppg at home where they went 4-2 SU, 3-2 ATS! Texas Tech is 25-5 SU, 18-9 ATS its last 30 home games.
While the wide-open offense gets all the ink, this defense has been very good the last three years. Texas Tech allowed just 18.8 ppg in 2005 and 25 ppg last season (3.8 yards per rush). The only weak area is up front, where the Red Raiders allowed 161 rush yards in Big 12 play. The defensive front seven needs replacing for 2007. They add three junior college transfers in DE Daniel Howard (Butler County CC), DB De'Shon Sanders (CC of San Francisco) and 6-4, 240-pound DE Brandon Sharpe (Fresno City CC).
Still, they outscored Big 12 opponents by a 30-29 average. Texas Tech was 8-4 "over" the total in 2006. Tech has junior LB Calen Shearer and senior LB Paul Williams to step up, while the secondary is strong behind senior safety Joe Garcia and junior Darcel McBath. The schedule isn't bad, except for the final two games in November: at Texas and home against Oklahoma. They'd better have a winning record wrapped up by then! All in all, expect another 8 wins and a bowl run.
Baylor
After overachieving under Head coach Guy Morriss, the Bears fell backward last season, going 4-8 SU, 3-8 ATS. There was no defense (32 points, 191 yards rushing allowed per game) and no offensive balance: 40 yards rushing, 275 passing per contest! Baylor promoted Larry Hoefer to defensive coordinator to replace Bill Bradley, who was hired as a secondary coach by the San Diego Chargers. In 2005 they had a strong 4-1 start, and lost to Texas A&M by 3 as a +23 dog, lost 23-14 to Nebraska, lost by 7 at Oklahoma, and whipped Oklahoma State 44-34.
In 2006, they won several close games and ran out of gas late, giving up 55, 66 and 36 points in its final three games. Rebuilding the defense and depth are the priorities for this fall, as well as finding a QB. Quarterback Shawn Bell really made the offense go, but he's graduated.
6-foot-4 sophomore QB Blake Szymanski got experience late last year, with 689 yards passing, 4 TDs, 7 picks. He will get tested by JUCO transfer 6-foot-5 John David Weed, a guy with a strong arm.
Baylor's move to the spread offense a year ago allowed it to average a school-record 275 passing yards per game, the shift also saw the Bears production in the run game drop to just 40 yards per contest. During spring drills, Morriss admitted the Bears have put in more running plays to try and bring better balance to the offense. "We have to rush the ball for a minimum of about 100 yards to have the success we are seeking," Morriss said. "We'd like to get up into the 140s, which in this offense would be really good."
The ground game has a mostly new offensive line and senior RB Brandon Whitaker will get time after rushing for just 158 yards, 3.9 ypc. Junior WR Thomas White (372 yards) is the leading returnee, and junior wide receiver Mikail Baker adds depth at wide out. Senior TE Terrance Parks averaged just 8.3 yards per catch. Baylor allowed 46 ppg on the road, which is why they went 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS away from home. Baylor is also just 3-13 SU, 6-10 ATS its last 16 as a dog.
The Bears have 7 starters back on defense, but allowed 232 rush yards per game in Big 12 play! The secondary loses its key players, but the front line has a lot of returnees. Junior linebacker Nick Moore, junior defensive end Adam Geibi and sophomore defensive end Jason Lamb will get some time, while senior cornerback Josh Bell steps into the secondary. The schedule is tough, with road games at Texas A&M, at Kansas, at Kansas State and at Oklahoma. A winning season is unlikely.
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