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1. Memphis
Are there any doubts out there about whether John Calipari can recruit?
Memphis (33-1) again has an explosive, athletic team that has had
another strong season, averaging 80 ppg. Memphis uses its frontcourt
muscle with 6'-9" junior Robert Dozier (11 ppg, 7 rpg) and 6'-9" senior
Joey Dorsey (8 ppg, 10 rpg). Dorsey is a good role player and a fine
shot blocker. Memphis was 20-11 under the total last season, 17-16 under this season.
A pair of guards lead the way on offense in 6-6 junior Chris Douglas-
Roberts (17 ppg) and freshman Derrick Rose (15 ppg), leading the Tigers
in scoring while Rose leads in assists. Unselfish 6-6 playmaking junior
Antonio Anderson battled an ankle injury in the C-USA tourney and is
second in assists, while a pair of sophomores, Doneal Mack and Willie
Kemp, add backcourt depth. They are 2-0 SU/ATS as a dog.
Memphis won at Oklahoma, 63-53, as a +7 dog, beat UConn by double
digits, topped USC in OT on a neutral court, and flattened Georgetown
and Arizona by double digits in back to back games. A year ago Memphis
won at Kentucky, 80-63, won at Gonzaga in OT, but lost at Tennessee (76
-58) and at Arizona (79-71). They are talented, deep and explosive and
have some impressive non-conference wins under their belts. Calipari's
teams still have a reputation of playing street-ball and they can
struggle against disciplined, attacking defenses in March, like two
years ago when UCLA bounced Memphis, holding them to 45 points.
2. Texas
The young Longhorns like to run-and-gun right over people, averaging 76
points, tops in the Big 12 for the second year in a row (yes, even
without Kevin Durant). They shoot a sizzling 38% from three-point land.
The Longhorns have a deep backcourt behind junior guard A.J. Abrams (16
ppg) and a pair of sophomores in D.J. Augustin (19.8 ppg, 5.6 apg) and
Justin Mason (6.8 ppg). Augustin was at his absolute best with 27 points
and nine assists in a 77-50 rout of A&M in a revenge game.
Up front, 6-7 sophomore Damion James is a fine frontcourt player on the
boards for coach Rick Barnes, with 10.7 rebounds per game to go along
with 13 ppg. He teams with 6-10 junior center Connor Atchley (9 pp, 5
rpg) as Kansas and Texas are the top two rebounding teams in the Big 12.
Despite all the offense, Texas is a strong defensive team, allowing 39%
shooting. This may surprise you, but they were 9-3 under the total at
home because of that 'D' (16-11 under overall).
This is still a young team. A year ago the Longhorns lack of experience
has shown in some close games, losing by 2 to Michigan State and losing
to Gonzaga by 10. They topped LSU in OT 76-75 but lost in OT at
Tennessee. They appear a bit better in tight games this season,
upsetting UCLA 63-61 and Kansas 72-69, both times as a dog. They also
beat Baylor by 5 as a dog, Colorado by 2, and Ok-State by 2. In fact,
the Longhorns started a sizzling 7-2 SU/ATS as a dog! A year ago they
got smoked in Round 2 by USC, 87-68, with Durant.
3. Stanford
The centerpiece for Stanford is a pair of BIG sophomore 7-foot twins
Brook and Robin Lopez anchoring the frontcourt. Brook leads the team
with 19 points and 8.5 boards per game, while Robin chips in 10 points
and 5.6 rebounds. They are shot blocking and rebounding forces in the
low post. A year ago they combined for 99 blocks through 24 games, which
was more blocks than seven of Stanford's nine Pac-10 opponents in team
blocks!
A pair of juniors provide more offense in 6-8 Lawrence Hill (9 ppg, 5
rpg) and guard Anthony Goods (10 ppg). Stanford plays great defense,
allowing 38% shooting and 58 points per game. That's why they started
16-8 under the total. However, they carry a 10-1 over the total run into
the tourney! They had a chance to to play UCLA in early January, but
lost at home 76-67. Stanford is 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS as a dog.
Stanford didn't play a tough non-conference schedule, starting 11-1.
They beat Texas Tech just 62-61 on the road and lost 79-67 at Sienna as
a 7-point favorite. They lost at Oregon, but also started 8-3 SU, 7-4
ATS on the raod. A year ago they had a 76-75 win at Virginia under their
belts as a +9 dog, but also lost 79-45 to Air Force and 89-75 at
Arizona. They sneaked into the tournament with 18 wins last year, but
went out quickly to Louisville, 78-58. It's always nice (and rare) to
have pair of talented 7-footers up front, so no one really wants to play
them in March.
4. Pitt
The Panthers lost Aaron Gray and Levon Kendall to graduation, but have
come right back this season with another powerful frontcourt behind 6-7
freshman DeJuan Blair (11 ppg, 9 rpg) and 6-6 Sam Young (18 ppg, 6.4
rpg). Their defense is also the same -- terrific, allowing 65 ppg and
42% shooting. One thing the Panthers have going for them is the return
of junior guard Levance Fields last month, who had been out since late
December.
The Panthers won at Washington, 75-74, and topped Duke, 65-64 in OT,
December 20th on a neutral court. However, the next game they lost 80-55
at Dayton. They killed Duke on the glass, 49-31, and allowed just 37%
shooting to the Blue Devils, so they can turn up the defense on anyone.
Mike Cook was lost with a severe knee injury against Duke in December, a
key loss, and Levance Fields won the game with a three-pointer with 4.7
seconds left. Cook had started 48 straight games at small forward. Even
in beating Duke they still had 22 turnovers.
Pitt survived six week's worth of Big East games without two starters
and won more games than it lost, but the Panthers have not been strong
finishers: The previous three seasons they were 6-4, 6-4 and 5-5 over
their final 10 regular season games, but were better this season, going
7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS. Pitt is the only Big East Conference school to win 20
or more overall games and 10 or more league contests in each of the last
seven seasons. Pitt is just 6-7 SU/7-6 against the spread as an underdog
the last two seasons, but was a beast in the Big East tourney, beating
Louisville, Marquette and Georgetown three games in a row as a dog.
Keep in mind the Panthers have had some early exits from the tournament
the last three seasons. Pitt's season ended swiftly three years ago,
losing 67-58 to Villanova in the Big East tourney, then 79-71 to
Pacific! Two years ago was more of the same, with a 72-66 loss to
Bradley. Last season they got crushed by Louisville in the Big East
tourney, then in the NCAA tournmanet needed OT to beat VCU in the second
round (failing to cover), then lost 64-55 to UCLA. They could have used
a veteran like Cook for this March.
5. Michigan State
The Spartans were up and down last season because of youth, but those
growing pains paid dividends this season. Senior guard Drew Neitzel is a
fine long range threat and averages 13.8 points, stabilizing the
backcourt with freshman Kalin Lucas. 6-7 sophomore Raymar Morgan was the
team's second-leading scorer a year ago and is the leader this year with
15.2 ppg. He teams with 6-10 junior Goran Suton up front.
Tom Izzo has another strong defensive team allowing 40% shooting. They
have wins over Texas, but lost a showdown with UCLA, 68-63. Their road
record (6-6 SU/ATS) has improved dramatically from last year's poor 1-7
SU, 2-6 ATS mark, but they don't have a winning record as a dog (2-6).
In fact, the last two seasons Michigan State is 7-13 SU, 9-11 ATS away!
How did all these kids do last season? Michigan State beat Marquette in
the opening round 61-49 controlling the pace, then the next game North
Carolina controlled the tempo in an 81-67 rout. The Spartans are 28-22
under the total the last two years led by that defense! Note that their
offense averages 78 ppg at home, but just 63 ppg on the road where they
have been outscored. Keep in mind the kids won't have home court to help
them in March.
6. Marquette
While most Big East teams survive with power up front, Marquette prefers
speed in the backcourt, like recent alumnus Dwyane Wade. Three junior
guards lead the Golden Eagles in Dominic James (13 ppg), Jerel McNeal
(14 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 3.6 apg) and Wesley Matthews (11 ppg). James claimed
2006-07 Associated Press All-American honorable mention and All-Big East
Conference first team honors after averaging a team high 14.9 points per
game and 4.9 assists per game. Marquette's guard have improved from a
year ago as they are a better shooting team from the field (45%), three
-point land (36%) and the free throw line (70%).
Rebounding is not a strength, with 6-6 sophomore Lazar Hayward (13.6
ppg) leading the team in rebounding (6.5 rpg). Marquette was seeking
additional help down low late in the season and decided to play 6-foot-
7, 240-pound muscular freshman Trevor Mbakwe against Pitt in February.
The team had said in November that Mbakwe would miss the season with a
left knee injury, but he received medical clearance to play and made his
college debut late in the first half of that game, a 72-54 win.
Marquette has not played well as an underdog at 2-6 SU, or on the road,
starting 6-5 SU/ATS. Although, the last three years Marquette is 21-14
ATS as a dog. Marquette's uptempo guard attack is why they are 16-11 and
15-12 over the total the last two years.
Marquette had an impressive win over Duke (73-62) last season, and lost
77-73 to the Blue Devils this year, both times on a neutral court. They
also won at Wisconsin as a dog, 81-76. A year ago Marquette went out in
the first round, a 61-49 loss to Michigan State, a physical, low post
team. That appears to be their weakness again. The Golden Eagles are
.500 on the road the last three seasons. That poor road play is a likely
a sign that this team won't go far in the tournament, though they have
been undervalued as a dog the last few years. However, guard play is
such a key in March, and the Golden Eagles are a veteran team with a
deadly backcourt.
7. Miami, Florida
Rebuilding Miami went 12-20 last season, but returned 3 starters and hit
20 wins to make the Big Dance. Stellar guard play and a strong stretch
run helped Miami rise in the ACC under coach Frank Haith. It is their
first NCAA Tournament bid since 2002. The backcourt leads the team in
scoring behind sophomore James Dews (10.3 ppg) and All-ACC first-team
selection junior guard Jack McClinton (17.4 ppg). McClinton won the Most
Valuable Player team Award last season, leading the Canes in scoring
with 16.7 ppg, and was even better this year. McClinton led the ACC in
three-point shooting (.442) and free-throw shooting (.900) for the
second year in a row and finished fifth in the conference in scoring
(17.4 ppg).
This is not a great defensive team, actually getting outscored in ACC
play by a 76-75 average. The frontcourt has three good pieces in 6-8
sophomore Dwayne Collins (9.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg), 6-9 senior Anthony King
(7.1 ppg, 7.4 rpg), 6-7 junior Brian Asbury (9 ppg, 4 rpg), and jand 6-
8, 250-pound junior Jimmy Graham (5.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg). They are more role
players than dominant frontcourt forces. Asbury led in rebounds last
season.
In a key 78-63 win over Maryland, five Hurricanes scored in double
figures, led by Anthony King's 14 points. UM was tied for 11th place in
the conference after a home loss to Florida State on Feb. 6, but then
reeled off four consecutive victories to capture the attention of the
tournament's selection committee. They also upset Duke 96-95 in a
thriller as a +6 home dog, as the Hurricanes toppled Duke for the first
time in 45 years. The Canes led by as many as 20 then fought off Duke's
late rally.
Haith said, "The atmosphere in the arena was special. I don't know if we
could have had this type of atmosphere my first year. There's no doubt
the fans were a big part of our win. It's no doubt they helped us. When
they started making threes and we were struggling, they kept lifting us.
And we kept making plays -- enough to win the game." Miami, which lost
at Duke 88-73 on Feb. 2, shot 57 percent and survived 22 turnovers
because Duke had 23 turnovers. The Hurricanes dominated Duke in the
paint, outscoring the Blue Devils 44-24. They have an edge in close
games because of a 73% mark from the charity stripe. They beat Duke and
Georgia Tech by 1, Virginia Tech and Clemson by 3, and Mississippi State
by 5. They have not been great as an underdog (6-7 SU, 6-6 ATS) and have
losses to Winthrop (76-70), BC, Wake and NC State. They allow 38%
shooting from long range, a weakness strong long range shooting teams
will attack.
8. Mississippi State
A young Bulldogs team has been on the rise for coach Rick Stansbury. The
key for this year was actually something that DIDN'T happen -- Two-time
all-SEC forward 6-8 Charles Rhodes withdrew his name from the 2007 NBA
Draft in order to return to Mississippi State for his senior season of
competition. Rhodes averages 16.9 points and 7.7 rebounds per game on a
team that is second in the SEC in rebounding.
Throw in 6'-4" junior guard Jamont Gordon and the Bulldogs have their
top two scorers in the frontcourt. Gordon is an all-around force with 17
points, 6.3 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game. Last season he averaged
16 points, 7.1 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game as an outstanding
playmaker, leading the Bulldogs in assists for three straight years. As
a freshman he averaged 13.8 points, 6.8 rebounds and 4.3 assists per
game and was one of the most sought after prep players. 6-9 sophomore
center Jarvis Varnado pulls down over 7 rebounds per game despite
weighing less than 200 pounds!
The backcourt also has Junior Barry Stewart (11.6 ppg) and soph guard
Ben Hansbrough (10 ppg). One weakness is a 64% team free throw mark,
which hurts in close games. Stansbury is an excellent teacher of defense
and the Bulldogs allow 36% shooting from the field an just 33% from long
range! They stumbled with early season losses to Southern Illinois,
Clemson, Miami, Florida and South Florida. They have a win at Alabama
and started an impressive 6-2 SU, 5-2 ATS as a dog.
They also started 16-11 under the total with that emphahsis on defense.
A year ago they won 3 NIT games before losing to West Virginia by one
point, and three years ago they lost to Duke, 63-55 in the second round.
This is an athletic, defensive team that will likely be involved in low
scoring games, which is their style (they were 11-7 under the total in
SEC play).
9. Oregon
The Oregon Ducks (18-13 SU, 15-13 ATS) were one of those bubble teams
that tried to put together a late season run. They went just 3-4 SU, 3-
3-1 ATS the last 7 games. This is a very strong offense, averaging 77
ppg, shooting 48.5% from the field, and over 40% from long range. The
backcourt is deep behind 6-6 senior Malik Hairston (16.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg),
5-6 sophomore Tajuan Porter (13.8 ppg) and 6-4 senior Bryce Taylor (13
ppg, 3.7 rpg).
There is decent frontcourt depth with 6-9 senior Maarty Leunen (15.2
ppg, 9.2 rpg) and 6-6 sophomore Joevan Catron (9 ppg, 5.8 rpg). Defense
is not a strength, allowing 44% shooting and 72 ppg. Oregon has been a
bad road team (5-9) and just 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS as a dog. They had a hot
start to the season because of an easy schedule, but faded with a losing
Pac 10 mark. They also lost 99-87 at St. Mary's. They don't appear to
have the defense or big game resume to be around long.
10. St. Mary's
March of 2005 was the last time St. Mary's made it this far -- and they
got smoked by Southern Illinois in the first round, 65-56. St. Mary's
(25-6 SU, 17-11 ATS) has been a powerhouse this season. Oddly, their
first loss was to Southern Illinois, a 71-56 defeat on the road. The
Gaels get it done on both ends of the court, shooting 47% as a team
while allowing 40% shooting!
They allow 63 ppg, starting 18-9 under the total. A pair of talented
frontcourt stars lead the way in 6-7 junior Diamon Simpson (13 ppg, 9
rpg) and 6-11, 265-pound sophomore center Omar Samhan (12 ppg, 7.4 rpg).
Throw in 6-7 junior F Ian O'Leary (4.4 rpg), and you can see why it's
tough to score in the low post off these guys. Simpson leads the West
Coast Conference in rebounding and Samhan is sixth in the conference
with 7.4 boards per game. O'Leary battled a leg injury during tourney
play.
There is balanced scoring and a key piece of the puzzle has been
freshman guard
Patrick Mills from Australia, who leads the team with 14 points and 4
assists per game. He's a terrific free throw and 3-point shooter. Saint
Mary's cracked the top-25 for the first time in 18 years. They also have
a loss at then No. 14 Texas, 81-62. They have the kind of balanced
scoring, tough defense and deep frontcourt that could pull some
surprises in March. St. Mary's started 4-3 SU/ATS as a dog.
11. Kentucky
Kentucky didn't start well under new coach Billy Gillispie, but they got
hot down the stretch with a slew of kids, ripping off an 11-2 SU, 10-3
ATS run to salvage a winning season. In just three seasons at Texas A&M
he was a three-time Big 12 Coach of the Year. This is not a tall team,
but they are balanced, shoot well from the field and the line, plus play
tough defense, allowing 39% shooting. Senior forward/guard 6-5 Joe
Crawford (17 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.1 apg) has carried the load on offense,
leading the Wildcats in scoring.
The big story is talented 6-8 freshman Patrick Patterson (16.4 ppg, 7.7
rpg), a former McDonald's All-American, who leads in rebounds and is a
strong offensive force. Patterson was rated the No. 2 power forward and
No. 15 prospect overall in the Class of 2007 by Rivals.com, and he lived
up to the hype. Patterson was named the league's Freshman of the Week
three times. "I think Patterson is very mature," UK guard Joe Crawford
said. "He's not slipping at all. He's still bringing things to the table
that we need."
The backcourt has a pair who played a lot last season in senior Ramel
Bradley (15.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.3 apg) and 6-5 junior Jodie Meeks (8.8
ppg). Meeks has a hip flexor problem and is questionable for the
upcoming postseason tournament. Freshman Alex Legion (6.7 ppg), another
former Parade All-American, has played well in his first year. Legion
was rated the No. 12 shooting guard by Rivals.com. Legion originally
signed with Michigan before receiving his release when the Wolverines
fired head coach Tommy Amaker -- Michigan's loss is Kentucky's gain!
Kentucky got blown out early in the season by Indiana, Houston and North
Carolina, but got better starting January 22 with a big upset of
Tennessee, 72-66. That turned the season around, going on that hot run.
Still, they have a losing road record (4-6) and started 11-4 as chalk,
just 3-8 SU/5-6 ATS as a dog. Gillispie can coach, but this is a young
team that will likely be better in some other March that this one.
12. Temple
Temple (21-12 SU, 21-9 ATS) completed a remarkable turnabout from a poor team, to
take the Atlantic-10 title. They carry a 7-0 SU, 6-0-1 ATS run into the Big
Dance. This is a guard-oriented squad that shoots 47% from the field averaging 73
ppg. However, they also play tough 'D', allowing 42% shooting, and sit at 21-12
under the total!
The backcourt leads the team in scoring behind 6-5 junior Dionte Christmas (20.2
ppg, 6.0 rpg), 6-5 senior Mark Tyndale (15.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 4.3 apg) and 6-4
sophomore Ryan Brooks (8.4 ppg). Temple is just 4-10 SU as a dog, but a sizzling
10-3 ATS. They would prefer a slow pace, getting blown out by Tennessee in the
opener, 80-63. The Owls are not a tall team, either, and could get hurt under the
glass by big teams. They lost 86-69 at Florida and lost 74-64 to Duke.
13. Oral Roberts
Oral Roberts (24-8) comes out of the Summit for the third year in a row
behind coach Scott Sutton. This team plays awesome defense, allowing 61
points per game and just 39% shooting. They have excellent balance. An
outstanding frontcourt has 6-10 senior center Shawn King (9 ppg, 6.5
rpg), along with 6-7 junior Marchello Vealy and 6-8, 245-pound junior
Marcus Lewis. The trio averages over 16 rebounds per game and has been
terrific in the low post all season. This team is averaging 70 ppg and
is 8-4 over the total the last three seasons.
The backcourt is also balanced behind 5-11 junior Robert Jarvis (16.5
ppg) and senior Adam Liberty (10 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.2 apg), the leading
scorers. Oral Roberts limited rival Oakland to 30 percent shooting as
the Golden Eagles had a 60-53 Summit League win, showing off their tough
defense. They lost 67-53 at Texas A&M and lost 62-51 at Arkansas, but
pulled a 74-59 win at Oklahoma State. They also played slow-down ball in
a 66-56 loss at Texas.
This is nothing new. A year ago Oral Roberts lost to Arkansas (68-56)
and Georgetown (73-58) on the road, but also had an early season 78-71
upset road win over then-No. 3 Kansas! Note that Kansas still killed
them on the boards, 41-29, and had an edge in offensive rebounds of 17-
8. Two years ago Oral Roberts crushed USC on a neutral court 68-48 and
lost to Marquette 73-70. They also lost to Oklahoma 81-73 on the road.
Two years ago they drew Memphis in the tourney opener, and lost 94-78 as
a +10 dog, a game that sailed over the total of 145. Last year they drew
No. 13 Washington State in the first game and lost 70-54. Their track
record of stepping up is not good in March, so get an early look at
them.
14. Cornell
Cornell (21-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) clinched its first outright Ivy League title
since 1988, a proud moment for coach Steve Donahue, who took the Big Red
head coaching job eight years ago. They did so with an 86-53 victory
over Harvard, wrapping up a 13-0 Ivy League season. Despite an uptempo
offense that averages 77 ppg and a defense that gives up 69 ppg, Cornell
was 11-6 under the total.
The Big Red has a balanced offense, with a frontcourt of leading scorer
6-6 sophomore Ryan Wittman (15 ppg, 6 rpg) and skinny 7-foot junior
center Jeff Foote (8 ppg, 6 rpg). The unselfish, deep backcourt has two
players averaging over 4 assists per game, with guards sophomore Louis
Dale (13 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 5.0 apg) and junior Adam Gore (9.9 ppg). Junior
Collin Robinson (9.9 ppg, 4.1 apg) was a key playmaker, but left the
team in January. Yes, this is a young team with no seniors among the top
5 scorers. They shoot over 40% from three-point land, which is their
game.
In the clincher over Harvard, junior Adam Gore had a team-high 14
points, including hitting four 3-pointers. In fact, on Senior Night, the
Big Red's lone senior was outstanding as Jason Hartford notched eight
points, six rebounds, a block and a steal after being honored in a
pregame ceremony. Cornell is 6-1 ATS as a dog, covering in an 81-67 loss
at Duke and in an 80-64 loss at Syracuse. Cornell is a three-time NCAA
tournament qualifier, previously competing in the championships in 1953
-54 and 1987-88, though they won't be around long.
15. Austin Peay
The Austin Peay Governors (24-10 SU, 10-18 ATS), the Ohio Valley champs,
advance to the NCAA Basketball Tournament for the sixth time in school
history, the third time under head coach Dave Loos. This team has
balanced scoring and an uptempo offense, one averaging 75 ppg. The
frontcourt is anchored by 6-5 junior Drake Reed (14.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg), the
leading scorer, along with 6-4 senior Fernandez Lockett (10.9 ppg, 6.8
rpg), the leading rebounder. That's not a tall frontcourt.
They are two of 5 players who average double digit scoring. The deep
backcourt has a trio of talent in 5-9 senior point guard Derek Wright
(11.7 ppg, 4.8 apg), 6-5 senior Todd Babington (11.6 ppg) and 6-3
sophomore Wes Channels (11 ppg). They are not tall and went just 1-5 SU,
1-4 ATS as a dog. They lost 104-82 at Memphis and 81-67 at Vanderbilt.
Todd Babington was named the Ohio Valley Conference tournament "Most
Valuable Player" and scored 24 points and Austin Peay State limited
Tennessee State to just 36.7 percent shooting as the Governors defeated
the Tigers, 82-64, to claim the tourney championship. Their balanced
scoring and 38% shooting from long range is a plus, but that small
frontcourt will be a detriment against bigger schools. By the way,
Austin Peay start this season 5-17-4 against the number!
16. Texas Arlington
Out of the Southland advances (or should we say "survives?") Texas
Arlington (20-10). They topped Northwestern State 82-79 in the
conference title game, meaning they won their tourney games by 6, 6 and
3 points. The Mavericks are a balanced team with excellent depth. The
guard play is deep though inexperienced with 5-11 sophomore Rog'er
Guignard (12.9 ppg) and junior Brandon Long (12.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg).
The frontcourt is experienced and versatile, led by leading scorer 6-7
junior Anthony Vereen (13.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg). Helping him are the leading
rebounders in 6-9 senior Jermaine Griffin (12.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg) and 6-5
senior Larry Posey (8.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg). They stepped up in competition
once, losing 69-64 at Oklahoma State. They have a losing road record and
shoot 65% from the line, so any kind of tournament surprise is unlikely.
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