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1. Kansas
This is a team no one wants to play, as the Jayhawks exploded out of the
gate starting 20-0. They've been young and talented the last few years,
but now they are experienced and have few weak spots. The junior
backcourt is led by 6-6 Brandon Rush and guard Mario Chalmers, each
averaging 12 points. Chalmers is a strong defensive player, the top
steals leader in the Big 12 again, and leads the team in assists (4.5
apg). Throw in junior point guard Russell Robinson, who is second in
assists (4.3 apg) after leading the team in assists the last two
seasons, and this is a dynamite and deep backcourt.
Up front, 6-9 sophomore Darrell Arthur (13 ppg, 6 rpg) has blossomed,
leading the team in scoring, while 6-8, 250-pound senior Darnell Jackson
(12 ppg, 6.9 rpg) leads in rebounds. 6-11 senior center Sasha Kaun works
the glass giving the Jayhawks a formidable frontcourt. This is a
talented mixture of youth and experience, reminding some of the Kansas
team with the freshmen-to-junior trio of Nick Collison, Drew Gooden and
Kirk Hinrich a few years ago.
Coach Bill Self has an explosive and talented young group that can play
defense, too, allowing 38% shooting. They are second in the Big 12 in
steals, averaging over 9 per game and tops in blocked shots. Early in
the season they topped USC just 59-55 and needed OT to beat Arizona, 76
-72 as a 15-point favorite. Then Kansas State and Texas topped them in
Big 12 play. A year ago they were good enough to beat eventual champion
Florida, 82-80 on a neutral court. They have not been a dog for the
second season in a row. Kansas shoots 50% from the field and they are a
threat to win it all.
2. Georgetown
Georgetown uses its outstanding frontcourt to play tough defense,
allowing just 58 ppg. The frontcourt is awesome with 7-2 senior Roy
Hibbert (13 ppg, 6.6 rpg) and 6-8 sophomore DaJuan Summers (11 ppg, 5.6
rpg), the top two leading scorers. 6-8 senior Patrick Ewing, Jr. is a
good role player along the boards. The height up front also helps the
Hoyas on offense, shooting 49% from the field, tops in the Big East.
Senior Jonathan Wallace (10 ppg) and junior Jessie Sapp run the
backcourt. Defense is the key, as they started 18-11 under the total.
Two weaknesses are poor free throw shooting (66%) and they've gone cold
from three-point land in big games. Georgetown was 4-for-22 from long
range in a 59-51 loss to Louisville, and 3 of 20 from beyond
the arc in a loss to Pitt. They started 2-2 SU/ATS as a dog.
They also wilted as a road favorite in a 77-70 loss to Syracuse in front
of 31,327 - the largest crowd to watch a college basketball game this
season - at the Carrier Dome. The Hoyas finished the game shooting 41.8
percent, hitting only 30.0 percent in the first half (6-of-20). The
Hoyas had 14 turnovers in the game, including 12 in the first half, when
the Orange scored 18 points off turnovers and tallied 16 points in the
paint. You can't play sloppy in March or opposing guards will take
advantage! At least the Hoyas have been very good on the road the last
two years, at 14-6 SU, 13-7 ATS. Sports bettors take note: Georgetown
has started 15-5, 11-9 and 18-10 under the total the last three seasons
with that strong defense.
3. Wisconsin
The Badgers don't mind the physical game, allowing just 38% shooting
with their power frontcourt of 6-11 senior Brian Butch (12.3 ppg, 6.8
rpg), 6-7 junior Joe Krabbenhoft and 6-7 junior Marcus Landry (11 ppg, 5
rpg). They allow just 54 ppg, going 18-10 under the total. This should
be a fun time for Butch, as a year ago he injured his elbow and missed
tournament play, sinking the Badgers' hopes.
Guards sophomore Trevon Hughes (12 ppg) and senior guard Michael Flowers
anchor the backcourt for head coach Bo Ryan. Hughes hurt his ankle in
the Big 10 tourney and sat out Sunday's title game. Wiscy is 2-1 SU/ATS
as a dog. This is an experienced team, as is evident with their 9-2 SU,
7-3 ATS road record. They have a win at Texas under their belts, 67-66,
as a +7 dog, but failed to control the tempo in an 82-58 loss at Duke.
This team won 30 games a year ago and was upset by UNLV in the tourney,
74-68. That season Wisconsin played well when stepping up, beating No.
20 Marquette on the road, topping then-No. 2 Pitt 89-75, and beating
Ohio State 72-69 at home. They've also been a terrific road team the
last two seasons at 16-5 SU/14-6 ATS away from home! Notice that
Wisconsin is 4-11 SU, 6-9 ATS the last three years as a dog. Still,
their defense, balance and coaching makes them a formidable March
threat.
4. Vanderbilt
Vandy Head Coach Kevin Stallings has a team that can shoot the ball,
averaging 81 ppg, which is why they started 17-14 over the total. 6-6
senior Shan Foster (20 ppg, 4.9 rpg) is an outstanding 3-point shooter,
the leading marksman from long range in school history. He teams with
senior point guard Alex Gordon and 6-3 sophomore Jermaine Beal (4.6 apg)
on this potent offense.
A huge addition has been 6-10 Andrew Oglivy, a polished offensive player
from Australia, who has drawn comparisons to former Aussie Andruw Bogut.
Oglivy is averaging over 17 points and 6.8 rebounds. However, when SEC
play heated up, the Commodores went south, on a 1-4 SU/ATS start. This
team has been great at home, as usual, but still struggles on the road,
at 4-6 SU, 4-5 ATS.
A highlight was an astounding 93-52 defeat of Kentucky. It was a
revenge game, as when Kentucky beat them earlier in the season, it was a
loss that ended their 16-game season-opening winning streak. "We were
embarrassed by our rebounding effort the last time," Commodores senior
forward Ross Neltner said. "That was something we talked about in
preparation for the rematch." The Commodores started 11-0 when
outrebounding their opponent, and 17-0 when leading at halftime. An easy
nonconference schedule can partly explain their 0-4 SU/ATS record as a
dog. Will that poor road play doom them in March?
5. Clemson
The Tigers are about offense, starting 17-13 over the total with a
strong one-two backcourt punch of 6-5 junior K.C. Rivers (14.5 ppg) and
freshman Terrence Oglesby (10.6 ppg). They are one of the top teams in
the ACC in shooting, rebounds and No. 1 in steals, getting over 10
thefts per game.
The frontcourt is decent behind 6-9 junior James Mays (11 ppg, 7 rpg)
and 6-7, 240-pound sophomore center Trevor Booker (11 ppg, 7.5 rpg).
Clemson was criticized for a weak schedule a year ago during their 17-0
start. When the Tigers won their first 17 games they were out-rebounded
just twice (by Monmouth and Georgia Tech). In ACC play, Clemson was then
out-rebounded in five straight games, losing four. Clemson out-shot Duke
and Virginia from the field, but lost both contests. Clemson was out-
rebounded, 79-53 in those two games combined, including a 32-16 deficit
in offensive rebounding.
This season they started 10-0, being a dog only once, beating
Mississippi State 84-82. Clemson is 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS as a dog. Rebounding
was a problem last season, but not so this year for the Tigers. A year
ago Clemson made the NIT but lost quickly, 78-73 to West Virginia in the
first game as a favorite. A lack of experience and another weak early
schedule probably means they don't go far in March.
6. USC
The Trojans remind many of UCLA just a few years ago -- very talented,
very inexperienced. Freshman guard O.J. Mayo was one of the most sought
after high school players and he's leading the Trojans with 20.8 points
per game. He's had an outstanding season, but can be prone to turnovers.
In a loss to UCLA he had 10 turnovers. His 23 consecutive double-figure
games to start a career is a school record and ended against UCLA.
The frontcourt has 6-6 sophomore Taj Gibson (11 ppg, 7.8 rpg) as the
leading rebounder, along with 6-8 freshman Davon Jefferson (12 ppg, 6.3
rpg). Tim Floyd has these guys playing great defense, allowing 39%
shooting and 63 ppg. They started 17-13 under the total and 10-5 ATS as
a dog. They have been undervalued of late, going 19-8 ATS the last two
years as a dog.
USC has been up and down much of the season. They lost the opening game
to Mercer, 96-81, not playing any defense. They played well in back to
back games against Kansas and Memphis, but lost both 59-55 and 62-58,
the latter in OT. They also gave up 92 in a loss to Cal and scored just
46 in a loss to Stanford. The Trojans did well a year ago in the
tourney, beating Arkansas 77-60, upsetting Texas 87-68, before losing to
North Carolina 74-64. The Trojans have been a money-maker at 21-11-1 ATS
last season and starting 13-7 ATS this year, but you don't always know
when this young team will implode with mistakes.
7. Gonzaga
How about these win totals the last 10 seasons: 24, 28, 26, 26, 29, 23,
27, 25, 27 and now 25.
Gonzaga (25-7 SU, 17-15 ATS) and coach Mark Few have made three trips to
the Sweet Sixteen and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Zags make a
run again. Gonzaga is running-and-gunning, as usual, averaging 77 points
per game. Gonzaga is not as dominating in the paint of in scoring as in
past season, but they still shoot 48% from the field, 71% from the
charity stripe and 37% from three-point land. Gonzaga is 7-7 over the
total away from home.
The frontcourt is young, with 6-10 freshman Austin Daye (10 ppg, 4.6
rpg) and 6-9 senior Abdullahi Kuso (6 ppg). A key loss early was 6'-11"
junior Josh Heytvelt (10 ppg, 4.8 rpg), but he has played well in the
second half of the season. A year ago he was averaging 15 ppg, 7.7 rpg,
but was arrested and suspended last February. Heytvelt was charged with
felony possession of a controlled substance and was suspended. Gonzaga's
backcourt has 6'-5" sophomore Matt Bouldin (12.7 ppg), who has stepped
up as the go-to guy along with Junior guard Jeremy Pargo (11.9 ppg).
Bouldin scored 21 points as Gonzaga held off Georgia, 75-67. It was the
third game in a row that Bouldin scored at least 20 points. Bouldin
scored 21 in a loss to Tennessee and 26 in a win against Utah. "He's
rounded into the complete player we were looking for," Few said. This is
their 10th straight trip to the Big Dance. A year ago they played tough
competition, with a win at then No. 2 North Carolina, 82-74, an 87-77
win over Texas on a neutral court, and a 78-77 OT loss to Memphis.
Gonzaga is 2-1 SU/ATS as a dog. With their talent and depth, they will
be a lot of fun to watch in March, unless you happen to be their
opponent.
8. U.N.L.V.
Hats off to Head Coach Lon Kruger, who has built up a good team in the
Mountain West desert, going 30-7 SU, 20-12-2 ATS last season, and a 22-7
SU, 16-10 ATS record this season in somewhat of a rebuilding year.
Kruger is a master of fundamentals. The Rebels lack height and shoot
just 42% from the field with a weak inside game, so they have gone to a
fierce defensive team that allows 39% shooting. They average over 8
steals per game and are tops in the Mountain West from the charity
stripe.
The guard-oriented lineup is led by junior Jo'Van 'Wink' Adams (15.9
ppg). 6-5 senior Curtis Terry stepped in for departed Kevin Kruger (the
coach's son) and leads the team in assists (5.1 apg). Rene Rougeau adds
backcourt depth, while up front 6-7 junior Joe Darger (12 ppg, 5 rpg)
and 6-8, 240-pound Matt Shaw work the glass.
This is an athletic bunch with lots of speed. The Rebels have always
been tough at home, which is the case again, but UNLV has been stellar
on the road, at 8-5 SU, 9-3-1 ATS last season and starting 6-5 SU and 6
-5 against the spread this season! They've had a strong run, starting
17-4 in each of the last two years. UNLV struggled when stepping up,
losing 52-49 to Arizona and a 68-48 loss to Louisville. They will
struggle against teams with strong frontcourts. Still, they are 3-4 ATS
as a dog this season and a stellar 12-7 ATS as a dog the last two
seasons. The Rebels are 18-1 SU, 13-6 ATS as chalk.
9. Kent State
The Kent State Golden Flashes have another powerful defensive team,
allowing 62 points and 42% shooting. The strength of this team is in the
frontcourt with 6-7 senior Mike Scott (13 ppg, 6.6 rpg) and 6-8 senior
Haminn Quaintance (10 ppg, 7.7 rpg). Scott and Quaintance both rank top
10 among MAC rebounders, combining for over 14 boards a game. Scott
cleans the defensive end (3rd MAC; 5.0 rpg), while Quaintance (4th-MAC;
3.1 rpg) keeps the Flashes going on the offensive end. Combined the KSU
post players have a nearly a 14-foot wingspan, measuring in at 168
inches.
Rebounding is the key for this group. During one stretch in midseason,
Kent State outrebounded 10 of 12 opponents and had a +2.9 rebounding
margin during that stretch. In their first 13 wins the Golden Flashes
had a +3.5 edge in rebounding, but were minus-5.0 in their first three
losses. The senior frontcourt leads the way, with junior guards Chris
Singletary and Al Fisher (11 ppg) handling the backcourt.
Sophomore guard Rodriguez Sherman was on the MAC All-Freshman Team last
season and is a strong defensive player. He gets steals and is usually
called on to guard the opposing team's top perimeter scoring threat.
After going 17-11 under the total last season with that tough defense,
Kent started 9-4 under this year. Some weaknesses: They got blasted by
Xavier and North Carolina, however. Bettors beware: Kent started 1-3
SU/ATS as a dog!
10. Davidson
If you like up-tempo basketball, you'll love Davidson (26-6 SU, 17-12
ATS)! Davidson likes to run for coach Bob McKillop, averaging 79 ppg.
They made the Big Dance a year ago, too, averaging 82 ppg when they went
29-4 SU, 22-7 ATS. Senior point guard Jason Richards runs the backcourt
and dishes out 8 assists per game. He's also second on the team in
scoring (12 ppg). Richards feeds the ball to remarkable sophomore guard
Stephen Curry, who averages 25 points and 4.8 rebounds per contest. This
is one explosive backcourt.
Curry is the son of former NBA standout Dell Curry and was the Southern
Conference freshman of the year last season, when he scored 29 points as
Davidson returned to the NCAA Tournament with a 72-65 win over College
of Charleston in the conference championship. He totaled 79 points in
three games in the tourney and won the MVP award. They went out in the
first round to No. 22 Maryland, an 82-70 defeat. They shot just 34%
against Maryland, getting killed on the boards 49-31.
The frontcourt has young role players with 6-8 senior Thomas Sander (9
ppg, 5.3 rpg), 6-8 senior Boris Meno (8 ppg, 6 rpg), 6-6 sophomore
William Archambault and 6-8 junior Andrew Lovedale (5 rpg). They are
part of a formidable Davidson run: three straight Southern Conference
tournament titles and 46 league wins in its last 47 games. Davidson
played a great early season schedule, losing to North Carolina 72-68 as
a +11 dog, losing 79-73 to Duke as a +8 dog, losing 75-63 at UCLA, and
losing by one point at NC State. They are 4-0 ATS as a dog. Two years
ago they lost the Big Dance opener 70-62 as a +11 dog to Ohio State.
Davidson is 8-1 ATS their last 9 games as a dog. Yes, they will run at
anyone!
11. Kansas State
K-State is off a fine season for first-year coach Frank Martin, who took
over after Bob Huggins left. Martin was an assistant coach at Kansas
State during the 2006-07 season under Huggins. Kansas State broke an
eight-year postseason drought with its invitation to the NIT last year
as the Wildcats earned their first postseason win in nearly 13 years
with a 59-57 first-round victory over Vermont. They topped that this
season. Despite the coaching change, they still play good defense,
allowing 42% shooting, but the offense is much improved, averaging 79
ppg. Kansas State started 18-7 over the total, surprising many with a
more uptempo attack.
The main reason is talented 6-9 freshman forward Michael Beasley, who
was one of 12 players chosen to the summer USA Basketball U19 World
Championship team. Beasley has proved he's that good, averaging 26.5
points and 12.4 rebounds per game. He shoots 41 percent from 3-point
range, with 1.6 blocks, 1.5 steals and 1.3 assists in 30.6 minutes per
game. Beasley became the first player in Big 12 history to win a weekly
award in four straight weeks, when he copped Big 12 Rookie of the Week 4
straight times. Beasley's six rookie honors is tied for the most in Big
12 history with Texas' Kevin Durant (2006-07).
6-6 sophomore Bill Walker (15.8 ppg, 6.4 rpg) teams with Beasley up
front, while the backcourt has senior guards Clent Stewart (7 ppg) and
Blake Young working with freshman guard Jacob Pullen. Yes, this team is
very young, which explains a sensational 16-2 SU, 9-3 ATS mark at home,
but a weak 3-6 SU/2-7 ATS road start. That was a problem last season,
too, as the Wildcats struggled badly in several road games, losing by 30
at Cal and by 27 at Kansas. Losing veteran forward David Hoskins (knee)
to knee surgery in December could hurt now. This is an exciting young
team, but all that freshman inexperience is an albatross against them in
March.
12. Villanova
Villanova is not a strong shooting (43%) or defensive team (allowing
43.8% shooting), but they squeezed out some close wins and overcame an
0-5 SU/ATS run in late January, getting hot at the right time. The Cats
allow 69 ppg, but went 19-10 under the total. In fact, they went 14-6
under the total in conference play. The young backcourt leads the way
behind 6-2 sophomore Scottie Reynolds (16.4 ppg) and freshman point
guard Corey Fisher (10.4 ppg)
This is a very young team. As young as that backcourt is, take a look at
the frontcourt: 6-8 junior Dante Cunningham (10.3 ppg, 6.6 rpg), 6-7
junior Shane Clark (7.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg), 6-8 freshman Antonio Pena (4.3
rpg) and 6-10, 275-pound freshman Casiem Drummond (5 ppg, 5.3 rpg), the
four leading rebounders. Drummond missed games late in the season
because of pain in his right ankle in which he had a stress fracture
earlier this season. They started 6-5 ATS as a dog and ripped off a 10-2
under the total run late in the season with better defense. They are 19
-10 overall under the total.
Tight defense down the stretch led the way in an upset of the then 13th
-ranked UConn Huskies, 67-65. The Wildcats were outrebounded by 44-32
and sank just six free throws in 11 attempts, but they committed only
eight turnovers, a season low for them in the Big East. They continued
their recent run of excellent defensive play, holding the Huskies to 40
percent shooting. Coach Jay Wright's Wildcats have been scrappy with a
new cast, but they are not a strong road team and had an easy non-
conference schedule. With all this youth, they won't be around long in
March.
13. Sienna
The Sienna Saints (22-10 SU, 17-13 ATS) claimed the Metro Atlantic
Athletic Conference championship and earned the school's fourth berth in
the NCAA tournament. They last went to the NCAA tournament in 2002.
Sienna rode the powerful one-two backcourt punch of 6-6 sophomore Edwin
Ubiles (17.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and 6-3 junior Kenny Hasbrouck (15.6 ppg, 3.3
rpg).
Sienna is an uptempo offense with outstanding guard depth, averaging 77
points per game. Despite the run-and-gun pace, they are 18-12 under the
total, even though they allow 71 ppg. This is a young team, with 6-5
sophomore Alex Franklin (15.2 ppg, 8.0 rpg) pounding the glass and
leading in rebounds. The frontcourt is small, so the backcourt leads the
way. They also rely on sophomore playmaker Ronald Moore (8.7 ppg, 4.1
rpg, 5.3 apg) and 5-9 senior guard Tay Fisher in the backcourt.
Tay Fisher matched his career high with six 3-pointers in scoring 21
points, as top-seeded Siena beat Rider 74-53 to win the Metro Atlantic
Athletic Conference championship. Sienna was 6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS as a dog,
losing at Syracuse 97-89 as a +14 dog and losing 102-58 to Memphis. They
also have a stunning 79-67 win over Stanford as a +7 home dog. They will
run right at anyone, but are vulnerable to tall, athletic teams.
14. Cal State Fullerton
Cal State Fullerton (24-8 SU, 18-8 ATS) surprised the Big Wild Wild West
all season. It's no secret how they did it: Offense! Lots of offense,
one that averages 83 ppg and shoots over 47%. The defense, though,
allows 46.5% shooting and 72 ppg. Fullerton is 15-12 over the total and
an impressive 9-5 SU, 9-2 ATS on the road.
They are not a tall team, with the backcourt leading the way in leading
scorers 5-11 junior Josh Akognon (19.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.5 apg) and 6-4
senior Frank Robinson (16.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg). The frontcourt has a hard
working, undersized forward in 6-5 senior Scott Cutley (14.8 ppg, 7.6
rpg). The Titans are hot, having who won six consecutive games, and 14th
of their last 16.
They don't have much of a history, though: The Titans reached the Elite
Eight in 1978, losing to Arkansas by three points. Fullerton is only 2-5
SU, 4-2 ATS as a dog and won't be around long because of the lack of
defense and height. This season they've lost 92-65 to Arizona, and even
lost at Central Michigan.
15. UMBC
Out of the America East comes UMBC out of Baltimore, Maryland. The
Retrievers (don't laugh) had a fine season, with an athletic frontcourt
led by 6-4 junior Darryl Proctor (14.7 ppg, 8.6 rpg) and 6-8 senior
Cavell Johnson (13.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg). They are skinny and finesse more
than big and bruising, but athletic when gobbling up rebounds in the low
post.
Despite those impressive numbers, the backcourt leads the Retrievers in
scoring behind senior guard Ray Barbosa (16.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg) and 6-3
senior Brian Hodges (15.0 ppg, 3.4 rpg). 5-foot-8 junior Jay Greene
leads this uptempo attack with a dazzling 7.2 assists per game. They
have losses at West Virginia (86-62) and at Ohio State (92-83). UMBC has
the kind of uptempo game to run right at bigger schools, but they will
struggle against tall teams and be gone early.
16. Portland State
Portland State (23-9 SU, 15-12 ATS) dominated the Big Sky conference and
ran away with the league championship tourney. This team has outstanding
balance and a Big Three on offense. The backcourt leads in scoring
behind 5-foor-6 playmaker junior Jeremiah Dominguez (14.3 ppg, 4.1 apg)
and 6-4 senior Deonte Huff (13.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg). Huff scored 17 points to
lead the Vikings to a 67-51 victory over Northern Arizona in the
championship game of the Big Sky Conference tournament.
This is the first time Portland State is NCAA tournament bound. Up
front, they have a big man in the middle in 6-11, 250-pound senior
center Scott Morrison (10.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg). PSU shot 44 percent in the
title game and held NAU to just 34 percent from the field. The
Lumberjacks outrebounded the Vikings 39-30. This offense averages 74
ppg, going 17-9 over the total. They were not impressive in non-
conference games, losing 64-63 to Colorado State and 69-48 to UCLA in
the opener. It's a great story, but get an early look at them, they
won't be around long.
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