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1. North Carolina
What an explosive team fourth-year coach Roy Williams has! The ACC Champion Tar Heels
average 89 points with a 12-deep rotation that runs right at opponents (19-12 over the total).
6-9 junior Tyler Hansbrough (23 ppg, 10 rpg) leads in scoring and
rebounding, while two sophomore guards have been outstanding in Wayne
Ellington (16 ppg) and Ty Lawson (13 ppg). The Tar Heels are tops in the
nation in rebounding and second in points.
There is strong depth up front with 6-5 junior Danny Green (12 ppg, 5.4
rpg), 6-8 sophomore Deon Thompson and 6-9 sophomore Alex Stepheson (4.0
ppg). Talk about youth and talent! They have been a dog twice this season, and won
both games. Senior leadership is a big part of playing well in March,
which this team lacks, although a very young Syracuse team won it all
five years ago, so there are exceptions. That's about the only fault
this team has.
A year ago this young team rolled through 3 tournament games until
losing to Georgetown in OT. A year ago they waxed Arizona, 92-64 on the
road, shooting 51.3% from the field, and topped then No. 1 Ohio State,
98-89. Incredibly, their 5-of-22 performance from three-point land
against Arizona was the Tar Heels' worst of the season....and they still
won by 28! North Carolina has a talented and deep team that is a serious
threat to go all the way.
2. Tennessee
Coach Bruce Pearl has a veteran backcourt-oriented team with two senior
guards as the leading scorers in Chris Lofton (16 ppg) and JaJuan Smith
(14.5 ppg), while 6-7 sophomore Tyler Smith (13 ppg, 6.8 rpg) has been
strong up front. Their uptempo attack is tops in scoring in the SEC and
has helped them go 11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS on the road! That's in stark
contrast to their poor road play a year ago, so it's clear this team has
come a long way. The Volunteers certainly made a statement with a 104-84
rout of Florida.
Arkansas couldn't even stop JaJuan Smith when he was recovering from the
flu. Smith made all six of his 3-point attempts in a 93-71 Tennessee
rout. It was the first time in UT history a player has gone 6-of-6 from
3-point range. That week Smith was 12 of 18 from 3-point range in two
straight Tennessee home games. UT made its first eleven free throw
attempts and was 27-of-37 (73 percent) overall, as their guards can
attack the basket and pick up freebies. The Vols led the SEC in fouls
drawn and steals, with over 10 thefts per contest.
Tennessee led the SEC in 3-pointers attempted (26) and made (9.6) a
game. Do they rely too much on offense? The Vols shot 39% against Texas
(a 97-78 loss) and 38% in a 72-66 loss at Kentucky. Tennessee settled
for 3-pointers down the stretch and allowed 63% and 49% shooting in
those defeats. Still, the Vols are 5-0 SU/ATS as a dog and ran away with
the SEC East. After lacking experience last year, Tennessee is loaded
with depth, quickness and experience this season, which makes them a
threat for a serious March run. Will a 65% free throw mark hurt them in
close games?
3. Louisville
The Cardinals had some early season struggles because of injuries, but
they are healthy at the right time. This frontcourt is loaded. 6-11
senior center David Padgett (11.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg) is back from injury,
anchoring the frontcourt as the team captain. He gets help up front with
6-9 sophomore Earl Clark (10 ppg, 8 rpg), 6-8, 275-pound soph Derrick
Caracter and 6-8 senior Juan Palacios.
Louisville plays great defense for Rick Pitino, allowing 38% shooting.
They started 18-11 under the total. 6-6 senior Terrence Williams (11
ppg, 7.3 rpg) does everything well, leading the team in scoring and
assists (4.5 apg) and is second in rebounding. Louisville can shift to a
2-3 zone defense to take away a team's outside shooting, an advantage in
March when defense and coaching can pay dividends.
The backcourt is young with sophomore starters Edgar Sosa and Jerry
Smith. Their perimeter defense is sensational, allowing 27% shooting
from long range! They are 2-1 ATS as a dog, with all three of those
games going under the total. This team got better down the stretch and
played well in rough-and-tough Big East play. Pitino has a deep,
versatile team and it's better to be playing your best ball later rather
than earlier in the season! With this frontcourt and defense, they could
go very far.
4. Washington State
The Cougars are not always pretty, slowing things down while allowing 57
ppg under second-year coach Tony Bennett. They also win, topping 20
wins for the third time in four years. The backcourt leads the team in
scoring with seniors Derrick Low (14 ppg) and Kyle Weaver (12 ppg).
A slow-down team needs muscle up front to grab defensive rebounds, and
the Cougars have it with 6-7 junior Daven Harmeling, 6-10 senior center
Robbie Cowgill and 6-10 junior center Aron Baynes. Washington State has
not been a great team to wager under the total, as oddsmakers have
caught up, but they are 10-8 SU, 11-7 ATS the last 18 as a dog. This
season Washington State lost at UCLA, 81-74, as a +6 dog, then lost at
home to the Bruins, 67-59.
They are better when the pace is slow, as in a 51-47 upset win over
Gonzaga. A year ago they beat Gonzaga as a home dog, 77-67. After
starting 14-0 this season, though, they went 3-5 SU/1-7 ATS as
conference play began. Note that as a favorite, Washington State is 28-21 under the total the last three years as chalk. They have not been
good in postseason play, going 2-5 SU/ATS the last four years. Last
season they beat Oral Roberts 70-54, then lost to Vandy in OT in Round
2. They come into the tourney have given up 70 or more points the last
three games (all over the total), including losing to Stanford.
5. Notre Dame
Run and gun! The Irish are the Big East's highest-scoring team (81 ppg)
behind an outstanding frontcourt of 6-8 sophomore Luke Harangody (20
ppg, 10 rpg) and 6-9 senior Rob Kurz (12 ppg, 7.5 rpg). It's not all
about the frontcourt, though, as Notre Dame is also tops in three-point
shooting (41%) and free throws (73.5%).
Junior guard Kyle McAlarney (15 ppg) and 6-8 G/F Ryan Ayers provide
backcourt firepower, while sophomore sparkplug Tory Jackson dishes out
over 6 assists per contest. Notre Dame started 18-10 over the total,
including 7-2 over on the road. They are a .500 road team, however, and
need to have that offense clicking to win: Georgetown's defense
clobbered them, 84-65, as did Marquette, 92-66. The Irish started 1-6 SU
as a dog, but they are still 17-7 against the spread as an underdog the
last three seasons.
Coach Mike Brey still has had concerns about a hot and cold bench, and
sometimes goes with the starters more on the road. The Irish can also
struggle in close games, losing to Baylor by 4 and Georgia Tech by one.
That was a problem last season, losing to Butler, St. John's and DePaul
by a combined 7 points. They also lost to Georgetown in the Big East
tourney, 84-82. Teams that can slow the pace down have had success, as
the Irish scored just 63 points in a loss at South Florida as a 6-point
favorite last season and 64 in the loss to Baylor. They are an exciting
team to watch, but probably won't go far because of that poor road play
while relying too much on offense.
6. Oklahoma
Oklahoma may have a second-year coach in Jeff Capel, but it's no secret
they play similar to old coach Kelvin Sampson: Oklahoma loves defense
and to pound the ball down low! The Sooners have a solid frontcourt
punch of 6-11 senior center Longar Longar (11.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg) and 6-10
freshman Blake Griffin (15 ppg, 9 rpg). They lead the Sooners in scoring
and rebounding. Oklahoma allows 40% shooting and 63 points per game,
which is why they are 33-20 under the total the last two seasons under
coach Capel. In fact, the Sooners carry a 7-0 under run into the Big
Dance!
The backcourt doen't carry the load, but it is deep with 6-5 sophomore
Tony Crocker, junior Austin Johnson and 6-5 senior David Godbold. All
three started last season. The Sooners have been a .500 road team and
have not played well against good opponents. They lost 63-53 to Memphis
at home, lost at USC (66-55), and even lost at Stephen A. Austin (66-
62). A year ago Oklahoma lost 77-65 to Memphis on a neutral court, lost
at home to Villanova (67-51), and lost 70-55 at Alabama.
Oklahoma is roughly a .500 team as a dog and on the road, which is far
better than a year ago when Oklahoma was awful on the road at 1-8 SU, 1
-7 ATS and 0-11 SU, 2-9 ATS as a dog! They will go as far as defense and
the big guys will carry them. Note that the last four years Oklahoma has
been a terrible postseason team, at 1-9 against the spread their last 10
games in Big 12 and NCAA tournament play!
7. Butler
The Butler didn't do it! They didn't run the table in conference play,
but that's about the only thing Butler (29-3 SU, 17-13 ATS) didn't do in
another remarkable campaign, their first under 30-year old Brad Stevens.
He took over after Todd Lickliter left to take over Iowa. Lickliter
guided Butler to the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Men's Basketball Championship
last season as the Bulldogs finished with 29 wins.
This year's team is also loaded with talent and experience, led by
senior guards A.J. Graves (13 ppg) and Mike Green (15 ppg), leading the
Bulldogs in scoring for the second straight season. Off the court, the
6-1 guard Graves has been an honor student as an exploratory major.
There are role players up front in 6-7 senior Pete Campbell (11 ppg) and
6-7 senior Drew Streicher. 6-7 freshman Matt Howard has been a huge plus
on the glass, averaging 12 points and 5.6 boards. Howard is an excellent
shot blocker and powerful inside force.
How about an early season stretch where they played 4 in a row against
Michigan, Virginia Tech, Texas Tech and Ohio State? The result: 4-0
SU/ATS, even beating Virginia Tech in OT as a +8 dog. The Bulldogs got
off to a 16-1 start, the best start in school history. This is nothing
new. Last season they beat then No. 21 Tennessee and No. 23 Gonzaga in
consecutive games early in the season. They won over the Zags despite
allowing 50% shooting while shooting just 39%. They like to shoot the
three, nailing 12-of-36 treys against Gonzaga. They trailed at the half
at Tennessee on the road, then whipped the Vols 34-19 in the second
half. Tennessee shot just 25% for the game!
Last season they had wins over Indiana (60-55 as a +3 dog), Notre Dame
(71-69), at Tennessee (56-44) and Gonzaga (79-71 as a +5 dog). They
later lost in the NCAA tourney to Florida, the eventual national champ.
Butler is 7-1 SU, 8-0 ATS as a dog the last two seasons! This team will
be fun to watch as they have depth, excellent guard play and don't
appear to be afraid of anyone.
8. Indiana
What a strange season for Hoosier (25-7 SU, 13-16 ATS) basketball. One
of the top teams in the Big 10, yet they lose Kelvin Sampson last month
because of NCAA infractions. Sampson was either brash or foolish, as he
was run out of Oklahoma in 2006 for similar violations, now disgracing
two programs. Interim coach Dan Dakich has taken over and has a
talented young backcourt, led by 6-4 freshman guard Eric Gordon (21
ppg), sophomore Armon Bassett (11 ppg) and freshman Jordan Crawford (10
ppg).
The anchor up front is 6-9, 250-pound senior D.J. White (17 ppg, 10.4
rpg), who leads in rebounds and is second in scoring, along with 6-5
junior Jamarcus Ellis (7.2 rpg). They might have a chip on their
shoulder come tourney time, with plenty to prove for the new coach. On
the flip side, the coach, the administration and even some players have
embarrassed the school and their great fans. There is a LOT of youth in
this lineup. Indiana is 1-3 Su/ATS the last 4 games, getting knocked out
of the Big 10 tourney by Minnesota, 59-58.
This team does play great defense, allowing 40.9% shooting. That helped
them to win 7 of their first 8 road games. They whipped Kentucky at
home, but don't forget an 80-65 loss at Xavier. A year ago Indiana
didn't play well stepping up in competition, beating Michigan State, but
losing at Butler (60-55), at Duke (54-51), at Kentucky (59-54) and at
Ohio State (74-67). Yes, those were closes games, but the Hoosiers lost
them all. Beware: Indiana is 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS as a dog the last three
years, and got shut down in Round 2 last season, 54-49 in a loss to
UCLA. They are a big unknown, plenty of talent and defense, but excess
inexperience while enduring a coaching change last month.
9. Arkansas
Razorback's first-year coach John Pelphrey was an assistant for Billy
Donovan for eight years at Marshall and Florida. He learned well, even
routing his old coach 80-61 during the season. Arkansas has a dynamite
defense, allowing 40% shooting. What's their secret? How about six
seniors and four players listed at 6-foot-10 or taller. The frontcourt
has 6-6 senior Sonny Weems (14 ppg, 4.6 rpg), the leading scorer, along
with board bangers 6-10 senior Darian Townes, 6-8 senior Charles Thomas
and 7-foot senior center Steve Hill.
The backcourt has a strong talent in junior guard Patrick Beverley (12
pp, 6.8 rpg), a terrific rebounder. They allow 42% shooting by opponents
because of that frontcourt, but perimeter defense is a problem, allowing
36.6% shooting from long range! Keep that in mind if they face good
three -point shooting teams. Arkansas stepped up late in the season to
play fourth-ranked Tennessee...and flopped in a 93-71 loss. Foul trouble
is a key with this team. Sophomore guard Patrick Beverley - the team's
leader in minutes played (33.6) and rebounds (7.0) - was strapped with
foul trouble in the first half and struggled against the Volunteers. He
finished with 5 points and 1 rebound and played a season-low, 23
minutes.
The foul trouble helped end a four-game stretch in which the 6-foot-1
guard had grabbed 10 or more rebounds. "It hurt us a lot," guard Sonny
Weems said about Beverley's absence. "Patrick is a great player. When
he's going, the team is going. When he's out, we kind of struggled on
offense a little bit." Without Beverley, Pelphrey had to lean on guards
Stefan Welsh, Gary Ervin and little used freshman Marcus Britt. Note
that the Razorbacks started 1-7 SU/ATS as a dog. They are kind of a Wild
Card team in March, with enough height, defense and rebounding to be a
force, but weak on perimeter defense while flopping as a dog.
10. South Alabama
Team certainly exemplifies the South Alabama Jaguars, with 4 players in
double digit scoring. They also play great team defense allowing 41%
shooting by opponents. This is the second time in three years they've
been to the Big Dance. They made the NIT last season and two years ago
lost in the first round to eventual champion Florida, 76-50 as a +8 dog.
South Alabama (26-6 SU, 18-9 ATS) has rolled all season behind Jaguar 6
-4 senior guard Demetric Bennett (20 ppg, 5.9 rpg), a workhorse at both
ends of the floor. He had 24 points in a rout of Denver as South Alabama
bolted a 41-14 halftime lead!
USA hit 52.2 percent from the floor, while Denver was limited to 28.9
percent, the worst effort against the Jags all season. South also held a
37-21 advantage on the boards. His supporting cast in the backcourt
includes 5-10 sophomore Domonic Tilford (12.7 ppg) and senior Daon
Merritt (11.5 ppg). The trio leads the Jaguars in scoring in this guard
-oriented lineup.
The frontcourt doesn't score much, but is terrific on defense and on the
boards with 6-7 junior Brandon Davis (11 ppg, 6 rpg), 6-7 junior DeAndre
Coleman (7.8 rpg) and 6-9 junior center Ronald Douglas (4.4 rpg). They
covered the spread in their first 5 road games, while beating Southern
Miss and Mississippi State in close games. They also covered in an 81-78
loss at Ole Miss as a +11 dog. They toyed with the Sun Belt all year,
but could get pushed around by strong frontcourts in March. Still, this
guard depth and defense could help them stay close as a dog, just like
they have all season when stepping up.
11. St. Joseph's
Saint Joseph's Hawks veteran coach Phil Martelli put one of his youngest
groups ever on the floor last season and the kids came through with a
strong 18-14 season. That experience paid off as just about everyone
came back and the Hawks had a terrific season. The frontcourt leads the
way for the Hawks, led by former Atlantic 10 All-Rookie performer 6-9
junior Ahmad Nivins, who averages 14 points, 7 rebounds per contest.
He is joined by 6-10 senior Pat Calathes (18 ppg, 8 rpg). Oddly,
Calathes is a point guard by nature, his height creates matchup problems
for the opponents, along with his ball-handling skills and ability to
see over the defense. Despite being 6-10, Calathes led the Hawks in
assists last season with 3.6 per game and chipped in 3 per game this
season. 6-8 senior Rob Ferguson (11 ppg, 5 rpg) is also strong up front.
Junior guard 6-4 Tasheed Carr led the Hawks in assists with over 6 per
game, but sprained his right ankle in January and missed some time. 6-5
sophomore Garrett Williamson stepped in as the starting point guard and
averaged 10.5 points and 7.0 assists when Carr missed four games.
There is a ton of returning role playing depth with sophomore guards
Darrin Govens and D.J. Rivera. Rivera missed the first semester in order
to concentrate on academics, but played in the second half of the
season. After having a losing road record a year ago because of so much
youth, St. Joe's was outstanding on the road this season, a sign of the
impressive improvement. They've come up a little short against strong
teams, however, losing at Syracuse by 3, and to Gonzaga and Creighton in
OT. Still, they went 3-0 ATS in those game. This is still a deep and
talented group that could make some waves in March.
12. George Mason
After a one-year hiatus, George Mason (23-10 SU, 13-15 ATS) is back!
Just two years ago George Mason had a monster season going 27-8 SU, 19-
11-1 ATS because of its monster frontcourt, getting all the way to the
Final Four with 275-lb senior 6'-7" Jai Lewis (13 ppg, 8 rpg) and 6'-7"
sophomore Will Thomas (10 ppg, 7 rpg) up front. They play great defense
for head coach Jim Larranaga. Thomas is now a senior and leads the team
with 16 points and 9 rebounds per game, a continuing force in the
frontcourt.
This season, George Mason won 23 games, allowing 63 ppg. The Patriots
have gotten balanced scoring for much of the year. 6-5 senior Folarin
Campbell (12 ppg, 4 rpg) and sophomore 6-6 Louis Birdsong help Thomas on
the glass. Campbell is the first player in Mason history with 1,200
points, 400 rebounds, 300 assists, 100 3-pointers, 100 steals and 50
blocks. The backcourt has plenty of experience featuring 6-3 junior John
Vaughan (13 ppg), a three-point threat, and junior Dre Smith.
Four players average in double figures on this unselfish team. Larranaga
is the winningest coach in the Colonial, a mark he set two years ago.
They played well when stepping up in competition, beating Kansas State
87-77 as a dog, and topping South Carolina 69-68. Two years ago they
lost just 63-61 at Mississippi State of the SEC, lost 83-78 in OT at
Wake Forest, and lost at Old Dominion by one point, 54-53. They have the
defense and frontcourt muscle to give some teams trouble, plus a head
coach who is one of the best.
13. Winthrop
Winthrop (22-11) has a first-year head coach in Randy Peele and had to
play the Big South title game on the road, but it didn't matter as they
make another trip to the Big Dance. It is their fourth straight Big
South title for the Eagles and ninth in the last ten years. This team
plays tough defense (58 ppg allowed) and a team-oriented game, led by a
senior class. Last year this team became the first Big South team to go
undefeated in conference play.
The backcourt has excellent senior leadership with Michael Jenkins, the
team's leading scorer with 14.3 ppg, and senior playmaker Chris Gaynor
(9.7 ppg, 4.2 apg), who led the team in assists for the fourth straight
season. Up front, they rely on 6-7 senior Taj McCullough (11.5 ppg, 5.7
rpg), 6-5 sophomore Mantoris Robinson and 6-6 freshman Charles Corbin
(6.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg) to crash the glass. They are 3-1 under the total with
that defense. A year ago they beat Notre Dame in the first round, 74-64,
before losing to No. 12 Oregon, 75-61.
The title game win over UNC Asheville, 66-48, was indicative of their
defense: The Eagles' game plan worked almost to perfection as the
vaunted Winthrop defense held the UNCA guard tandem of Bryan Smithson
and K.J. Garland in check. The two UNCA guard had a combined 4-25
shooting performance. Winthrop also made life tough on 7-foot-7 Kenny
George, who connected on only 4 of 10 field goals after coming into the
game shooting better than 71 percent from the floor.
This little school played a tough schedule. They topped Georgia Tech,
79-73, lost to Baylor 62-54, lost 76-71 to Ole Miss and beat Miami,
Florida, 76-70. That's nothing new: A year ago the Eagles had wins at
Mississippi State, Missouri State and Old Dominion. Their only losses
came on the road, at Wisconsin in overtime, Texas A&M, North Carolina
and Maryland. That year they played three straight games against North
Carolina, at Mississippi State and at Maryland. Winthrop even pulled the
upset at Mississippi State, winning 74-63. They lost to North Carolina
by just 7 and at Maryland by just 71-60. Later they lost to then No. 12
Wisconsin by 3, just 82-79 in OT.
Two years ago Winthrop played exceptionally well when stepping up in
competition. Winthrop won 71-64 at Marquette as a +3 dog, lost 60-57 at
Alabama, lost 64-62 at Auburn, and 73-63 at Memphis! Three years ago
Winthrop began the season losing to Arkansas (72-49) and to South
Carolina (62-52) of the SEC, and won 60-54 at Providence. In the upset
at Providence, the Friars actually led 34-22 at the half, before the
Winthrop Eagles roared back with a 38-20 second half. Talk about a young
team not giving up! They held Providence to 37% shooting and won despite
shooting 35%. Winthrop had balanced scoring, with three players with 11,
11 and 9 points. They are definition of T-E-A-M and will not be in fear
when stepping up in competition. All four of Winthrop's losses a year
ago came to teams in the top 14 in the RPI.
14. Boise State
It's been 14 years, but Boise State (25-8 SU, 15-11 ATS) is finally back
in the tournament after winning the WAC title game in three overtimes
over New Mexico State, 107-102. This team is about an attacking, uptempo
offense, averaging 82 ppg, shooting 51% from the field and 42% from long
range. Boise is 18-8 over the total.
They have a veteran trio that carries the offense, all in the
frontcourt, led by 6-6 senior Reggie Larry (19.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg). He teams
with 6-9 senior Matt Nelson (15.6 ppg, 7.3 rpg) and 6-7 senior Tyler
Tiedeman (14.0 ppg, 3.4 rpg). They compete with an uptempo pace and by
pounding the glass with that senior frontcourt.
Boise State outlasted New Mexico State 107-102 in triple overtime on the
Aggies' home court. Forward Tyler Tiedeman scored 17 points and made
five huge 3-pointers before fouling out in the third overtime.
Tournament MVP Reggie Larry scored 31 points and pulled down 16
rebounds, and the Broncos won despite losing starters Matt Nelson (26
points and nine rebounds) and Tiedeman to fouls. New Mexico State had
had beaten the Broncos six consecutive times! It is BSU's first
appearance in the Big Dance since 1994, a span of 14 years. Boise beat
BYU, 73-70, and lost 86-74 to Washington State, controlling the pace.
Don't underestimate these Broncos: Boise is 7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS as a dog!
15. American University
American U hit the 20-win mark and played in the Patriot League
Championship Game for the fourth time in seven years. In fact, the
Eagles are in their seventh season in the conference, and made their
first trip to the title game since 2004. This is a slow down, defensive
team, one that allowed 62 points per game and just 41% shooting by
opponents.
The backcourt leads the offense behind 5-11 junior Garrison Carr (18.2
ppg, 3.4 rpg) and 5-9 junior Derrick Mercer (12.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 4.2
apg). Car is just 160 pounds! They slowed the pace down in a 63-56 loss
at Dayton, and used that style to pull a 67-59 upset at Maryland. They
also lost 78-51 to Georgetown.
The workmanlike frontcourt is deep, with four big bodies that crash the
boards, led by 6-8 junior Brian Gilmore (8.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg), 6-6 junior
Bryce Simon (7.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg), 6-5 senior Travis Lay (6 ppg, 4.1 rpg)
and 6-9, 275-pound junior center Constantin Motnii (4.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg)
from Moscow, Russia. American University limited Maryland to five
first-half baskets, got 18 points from Derrick Mercer and snapped a 14-
game losing streak against the Terrapins with a stunning 67-59 victory,
allowing 41% shooting. Maryland shot 5-for-24 from the floor in the
first half, and went more than 10 minutes without a basket. The previous
win against Maryland came during the 1926-27 season! An upset like that
will be less likely in March, however.
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