NCAAB Big 10 Preview
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Big 10 Basketball Preview: 2007-08
Michigan State
A very young Michigan State team went 23-12 Su, 17-13 ATS a year ago. What's this more seasoned group going to do? The Spartans had been up and down all season because of youth, but experience should only make them better for this campaign: All 5 starters return. Senior guard Drew Neitzel is the leading scorer, averaging 18 points, and is a fine long-range threat. 6-7 sophomore Raymar Morgan (11.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg), the team's second-leading scorer, and 6-10 junior Goran Suton (9.3 ppg, 6.7 rpg) form an excellent nucleus.
In fact, there wasn't a single senior on the roster last year. 6-8 junior Marquise Gray (6.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg) and 6-10 junior Drew Naymick provide defensive muscle on the glass, while junior PG Travis Walton and 6-6 soph Isaiah Dahlman add depth to the backcourt. Michigan State was the top defensive team in the Big Ten, leading the league in field-goal percentage defense (.378) and scoring defense (57.0 ppg). The Spartans were 18-10 under the total led by that defense! Like many Big 10 teams, Michigan State was outstanding at home, but very poor on the road, starting 1-9 SU, 3-7 ATS away!
The offense averaged 69 ppg at home, but just 58 ppg on the road. This was a strong rebounding team last season, tops in rebounding in the Big 10 averaging over 39 per game. They had wins over Texas and Wisconsin at home, but road losses to BC, Maryland, Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, Ohio State and Purdue. Michigan State looks loaded for a strong season, perhaps the best in the Big 10 with Greg Oden off to the NBA.
Illinois
Illinois (23-12 SU, 12-17 ATS) is off a strong season and a great offseason. Center Shaun Pruitt will return to the Illinois basketball program for his senior season after withdrawing from the NBA Draft. A 6-10 center Pruitt earned third-team All-Big Ten honors in 2006-07. The only Illini player to start every game each of the last two years, Pruitt ranked second on the team in scoring (11.4 ppg) and led the team in rebounding (7.5 rpg) this past season. His rebounding totals ranked third in the Big Ten, while he was fourth in the conference in field goal shooting at 54.9 percent.
Pruitt scored in double figures 22 times, and was Illinois' leading scorer eight times and leading rebounder 16 times during the year. Coach Bruce Weber has a veteran team, with a strong frontcourt anchored by 6-8 senior Brian Randle (4.8 rpg) and Pruitt. Bruce Weber's club can turn up the heat on the defensive end, allowing 57 ppg. Illinois was 20-9 under the total! Illinois was not good on the road, tough, going 3-6 SU/4-5 ATS.
Junior guard Chester Frazier (7 ppg) becomes the go-to guy in the backcourt. 6-3 junior Jamar Smith (8 ppg) will reshirt this season after a near-tragic car accident. He played well as a freshman and soph. Illinois adds 6-7 forward Rodney Alexander, one of the top-ranked junior college recruits in the nation. Alexander averaged 13.8 points and 5.3 rebounds this past season at Redlands while shooting 58.7 percent from the field. He is the No. 14-ranked player nationally in the Junior College Top 125 by Rivals.com. Alexander helped lead Redlands to a No. 1 ranking in the NJCAA D-1 poll for three straight weeks during the season, a No. 2 ranking in the final regular season poll, and an overall record of 29-2 on the year.
The Illini didn't impressed against good teams, though, losing to Maryland, Arizona, Ohio State and Wisconsin. The Illini was also not a strong shooting team, at 43.8% (third worst in the Big 10) and only 34.8% from three-point land (also third-worst). This is more of a slow down, defensive team, allowing 57 points per game (20-9 under the total). Still, over the last four years, Illinois has compiled a record of 108-25, winning two Big Ten championships, one Big Ten Tournament, and making three straight NCAA Tournament appearances. This senior class advanced to the Sweet 16 in 2004, and the NCAA Championship Game in 2005. Do they have one final push left? They are 16-12 and 20-9 under the total the last two years.
Ohio State
Greg Oden, we hardly knew ya. The touted best big man in the nation had a memorable freshman season at Ohio State, taking them all the way to the NCC title game. Now he's gone, off to the NBA, with star guard Mike Conley and freshman G Daequan Cook. Senior G Ron Lewis is also gone. So what's Thad Matta to do? Rebuild, of course, just like a year ago.
Ohio State sophomore David Lighty scored four points in his USA Basketball debut in an exhibition vs. China. Lighty played 10 minutes in the win vs. the Chinese squad, which featured Yi Jianlian, the first round draft pick (No. 6 overall) of the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2007 NBA Draft June 28. Lighty, a 6-5 guard, played in all 39 games for the 35-4 Buckeyes in 2006-07, his rookie season. He averaged nearly four points a game with 40 assists and 20 steals. He excelled down the stretch in helping Ohio State win both the regular-season (15-1) and postseason (3-0) Big Ten titles during the Buckeyes run to the NCAA title game vs. Florida in Atlanta. 6-8 senior Othello Hunter (5 ppg, 4.5 rpg) is a good frontcourt rebounder who can help out.
The backcourt will see more playing time for 6-4 junior Mark Titus and senior Danny Peters. Ohio State plays tough defense for Motta, allowing 61 ppg (17-11 under the total). Two years ago they were 16-11 under the total. Even without Oden two years ago, Ohio State showed what it is capable of in a 79-68 win at Michigan State. That snapped Michigan State's 15-game home winning streak as the 13th-ranked Buckeyes hit 11 3-pointers in the win over the then 18th-ranked Spartans.
Coach Thad Matta has another five capable bodies coming in, in what's been rated a strong recruiting class. The group includes 7-2 McDonald's All-America Kosta Koufos, a European style big man from Greece, and Jon Diebler, the leading scorer in Ohio high school history. 6-6 freshman Evan Turner is a finesse scorer from Chicago. If that's not enough, Matta already has received commitments from five more studs who will arrive in 2008, a haul that features B.J. Mullens, a Columbus native who stands 7-1. Ohio State was an impressive 7-4 SU/6-5 ATS on the road last season, but just 3-4 as a dog. They've probably lost too much to be a Big 10 force this season, but what a crop of incoming talent!
Indiana
First-year head coach Kelvin Sampson inherited a small team, but they played tough defense for the new coach and won 21 games. The key big men are back, including 6-9 senior D.J. White. White led the Hoosiers with 13.8 points and 7.3 boards per game. 6-8 senior Lance Stemler pulled down 4.1 boards per contest, so two of their top three rebounders are back.
The Hoosiers have a young backcourt with sophomore PG Armon Bassett and senior A.J. Ratliff, both of whom averaged 9 ppg. Ratliff is a terrific long-range shooter. Sampson likes defense and this group is very good, allowing 62 ppg, and just 59 ppg at home, where they went 16-0. They didn't stepped up well in competition, though, scoring 47 on UCLA in the tourney while finishing last season on a 5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS run. Indiana beat Michigan State, but losing at Butler (60-55), at Duke (54-51), at Kentucky (59-54) and at Ohio State (74-67). Yes, those were closes games, but the Hoosiers lost them all.
The Hoosiers like tough defense and even a slow pace, allowing 62 ppg, a trait that was common with Sampson's Oklahoma teams. However, this is a deep, athletic team and Sampson has said he wants to run more. We will see. Indiana is 27-21 UNDER the total the last two years. But beware: Indiana was 1-7 SU, 4-4 ATS as a dog! They aren't good at finishing and were 3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS on the road.
Wisconsin
The Badgers (30-6 SU, 16-13 ATS) had an experienced team last year with Big Ten player of the year 6-6 senior forward Alando Tucker (20 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and senior guard Kammron Taylor (12.8 ppg) leading the team in scoring. The Badgers' 21-1 start was the best in school history, including a school-record 17-game winning streak. But they are gone, along with 3 starters, so it's rebuilding time for head coach Bo Ryan.
That will mean more time for 6-7 junior Marcus Landry (5.9 ppg) and 6-7 junior Joe Krabbenhoft (4.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg), both of whom were role players last season. They do have a big man up front in 6-11 Brian Butch ((8.8 ppg, 5.9 rpg), who returns after hurting his elbow late in the season which stopped any chance at a major March run. Junior guard Jason Bohannon steps into the backcourt after coming off the bench along with junior G Trevon Hughes.
Wisconsin is an outstanding defensive team under head coach Bo Ryan, allowing just 57 ppg, going 16-15 under the total (7-3 under on the road). Despite a late season loss by one-point to then-No. 1 Ohio State and another Big 10 title game loss to the Buckeyes, Wisconsin still went 9-4 against Ohio State under Ryan. Wisconsin played well when stepping up, beating No. 20 Marquette on the road, topping then-No. 2 Pitt 89-75, and beating Ohio State 72-69 at home. They were also a terrific road team at 7-3 SU/ATS away from home.
Defense is one of their calling cards, starting 7-3 under the total on the road. Just ask Ohio State, whom Wisconsin held to 49 in the late season duel. Two years ago, in an upset of then-No. 12 Ohio State, Wisconsin held the Buckeyes, the Big 10's top 3-point shooting team, to a season-low 4-of-17 (.235) shooting from long range. It was just 4-of-14 shooting in Ohio State's 49-48 win late last season. Notice that Wisconsin is 2-10 SU, 4-8 ATS the last two years as a dog. That probably won't change with so many new faces.
Michigan
The Wolverines had a fine 22-13 season, but that was a senior laden class. This season has a lot of new looks, including the coach. John Beilein arrives at Michigan after serving as head coach at West Virginia for the past five seasons (2003-07). He compiled a 104-60 record at the helm of the Mountaineers, posting three straight 20-win seasons in his final three years.
Beilein, 54, has amassed a 551-318 career record in his 29 years as a collegiate head coach. Beilein has taken 10 different teams to a postseason tournament, four NCAA and six NIT. He has compiled a 20-10 all-time record during postseason play and is 6-4 in NCAA play with two Sweet 16 appearances (2005, '06) and an Elite Eight appearance (2005). He is 14-6 in NIT play, winning the 2007 NIT crown with West Virginia.
They still have 6-5 junior Jevohn Shepherd, who played for his native country of Canada in the World University Games in August. The frontcourt also has 6-6 senior Ron Coleman (5.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg) and 6-10 sophomore Ekpe Udoh (5.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg), both role players off the bench last year, along with 6-8 DeShawn Sims.
The backcourt has a stabilizing force in junior Jerret Smith, who chipped in 5.7 points and was second in assists with 3.4 per contest. Even with all that experience a year ago, the Wolverines were only 3-9 SU/ATS on the road. Beilein is a quality coach, but this is a rebuilding season for Big Blue. They were also just 3-11 SU/ATS as a dog.
Iowa
Iowa is off a 17-14 season and has a new coach in Todd Lickliter, the former coach who did wonders at Butler. His Butler teams were aggressive and strong defensively. Lickliter was named national Coach of the Year last season when he piloted Butler to the Sweet 16 before losing to eventual champion Florida, 65-57. Lickliter's squad went 29-7 in 2006-07 with a 13-3 record in the Horizon League.
Iowa suffered big losses with Adam Haluska and Mike Henderson graduating and Tyler Smith transferring to the University of Tennessee. Haluska led the Big Ten in scoring with 20.8 points per game and Smith added 14.8. They were the only Hawkeyes to average double figures in points per game. The backcourt does return junior Tony Freeman, who averaged 7.5 points and was tops with 3.7 assists per game. 6-6 Senior guard Justin Johnson is also back.
There's a lot of raw returning talent up front in 7-foot senior Seth Gorney, 6-8 junior Cyrus Tate, 6-10 senior Kurt Looby (4.6 rpg) and 6-7 junior G/F J.R. Angle. In addition, David Palmer, who played his freshman year at Seton Hall two years ago, is eligible to play. Palmer is a 6-9, 240-pound forward/center who will have three seasons of eligibility at Iowa after sitting out the 2006-07 season. "I've said this many times: If we do today what champions do, then we'll be able to meet some of our challenges." Lickliter said.
Jeff Peterson, a senior point guard at DeMatha Catholic High School in Hyattsville, MD, comes to the Hawkeyes. The announcement of Iowa's first recruit by Coach Lickliter. Peterson averaged 13.5 points and 8.7 assists per game as a senior at DeMatha, one of the most successful and highly recognized prep programs in the nation. Peterson shot 43% from three-point range and 79% from the free throw line. He led DeMatha to a 28-6 record in his senior season.
Peterson is one of three preps who will join the Hawkeye program in the fall. Guard Jake Kelly and forward Jarryd Cole signed with the Iowa program during the fall signing period. Cole averaged 19.1 points, 13.7 rebounds and 5.8 blocked shots as a senior, helping his prep team post a 17-10 overall record. Kelly scored 13.7 points a game as a senior in leading Carmel HS to a 14-7 overall record. One concern is that Iowa was just 2-9 SU, 5-5 ATS on the road. They lost a lot of senior leadership, however, and the back has question marks for the new coach.
Purdue
Defense (17-13 under) and a late season run got Purdue over the 20-win mark during a 22-12 SU, 19-11 ATS campaign. Purdue coach Matt Painter got a two-year contract extension that will keep him on the Boilermaker bench through the 2012-13 season. The Boilermakers allowed 63 ppg and return sophomore guard Chris Kramer and soph Keaton Grant anchoring a decent backcourt. 6-3 freshman combo guard E'Twaun Moore is too good to sit down, so he will help this backcourt right away.
The frontcourt is not big and loses 6-7, 252-pound senior Carl Landry (18.9 ppg, 7.1 rpg), who led the team in scoring and rebounding. 6-6 junior Gordon Watt (4.8 rpg) returns in a relatively thin and smallish front line, though two talented freshmen are on the way in 6-8 Scott Martin and 6-10 JuJuan Johnson. They also add 6-9 JC transfer Namanja Calasan, who spurned Kentucky to join Purdue. They can slow things down, like they did in a 63-52 loss in the Big 10 tourney to Ohio State. Notice that Ohio State finished with a 49-33 rebounding edge, 21-9 on the offensive end! Purdue finished in the bottom half of the Big 10 in rebounding.
Purdue will look for more from combination guard Keaton Grant. Grant averaged 18.0 points, seven rebounds and six assists per game at Bridgton Prep School in Maine two years ago and is now a sophomore at Purdue. The 6-foot-4, 200-pound guard originally committed to Missouri after averaging 24.0 points per game at Gateway High School in Kissimmee, Fla. Purdue was dominant at home (16-2 SU, 10-4 ATS), but 2-7 on the road. They are 2-19 SU, 8-12 ATS their last 21 road games! It's a bit of a rebuilding campaign in the competitive Big 10, but this is an intriguing team with all the talented newcomers.
Northwestern
What you see is what you get with Northwestern (13-18 SU, 12-14 ATS), the ultimate slow-down team. The Wildcats allowed 59 ppg while scoring 56 ppg in their walk-it-up style. Northwestern is 29-21 "under" the total the last two years! A young team finished 13-18 overall, having struggled in conference play. The stout defense has become a hallmark of Northwestern basketball under head coach Bill Carmody.
The centerpiece for this season is skinny, 6-8 sophomore Kevin Coble, who led the team with 13.4 points and 5.2 boards per game. 6-6 junior Jeff Ryan will help him out on what is a small frontcourt. Coble became the first freshman in school history to lead the team in both scoring (13.4 ppg) and rebounding (5.2 rpg) in the same season and was named to the 2007 Big Ten All-Freshman Team. He posted double-digit point totals 21 times and scored more than 20 points on five occasions.
They have a good backcourt with senior guard Jason Okrzesik and junior guard Craig Moore. Okrzesik started strong, scoring 11 points against Cornell in his first game as a Wildcat. He followed that up with three more double-digit point performances in the nonconference schedule, including a career-high 13-point performance against Northwestern State. A key newcomer to watch is freshman G Mike "Juice" Thompson in the backcourt.
Redshirt sophomore Sterling Williams continued to develop, displaying consistency in 19-straight starts. He came off the bench against Ohio State on January 24 to score 11 points, including three 3-pointers, nearly leading the Wildcats to the victory of the No. 2-ranked team in the country. Northwestern was 10-8 at home, but 1-8 on the road. They may creep up over the .500 mark, but there won't be a lot of scoring.
Penn State
Penn State is off an 11-19 season in 2006-06, making only one post-season appearance since 2001. Lions Coach Ed DeChellis begins his fourth campaign, led by senior 6'-5" Geary Claxton, a third-team All-Big Ten selection and a strong defensive player. He did it all, leading the team in scoring (16.3 ppg) and rebounding (8.0 rpg).
Former Big Ten Freshman of the Year 6'-6" Jamelle Cornley (13.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg) is back for his junior season giving the Lions a good one-two punch. The backcourt is deep and experienced with junior Danny Morrissey (9.6 ppg), along with senior Mike Walker, who is a good three-point shooter.
Penn State 6-10 junior Joonas Suotamo played with the Finnish National Team this summer. The 6-10, 230-pound forward is played his second stint with the Finnish team at the World University Games, which are held every two years. Suotamo is one of eight returning lettermen for the Nittany Lions in 2007-08. He played in 18 games as a sophomore. They lose only one senior starter but need to improve an 0-11 road mark!
Minnesota
Minnesota (9-22 SU, 9-16 ATS) bottomed out, so a big name coach comes aboard in Tubby Smith. Smith comes to Minnesota after having spent the past 10 seasons (1997-2007) as the head coach at the University of Kentucky. During his tenure at Kentucky, Smith, 55, led the Wildcats to the 1998 national championship, four "Elite Eight" appearances. In those 10 seasons at Kentucky, Smith compiled a 263-83 record for a .760 winning percentage.
He's rebuilding from scratch, as Minnesota loses its top three scorers and all their starters. Three seniors who were role players much of last year will have to step up in 6-6 Brandon Smith (3.8 ppg) and 6-5 Jamal Abu-Shamala (6.5 ppg). Senior Guard Lawrence McKenzie provides some experience and averaged 14.9 ppg, so the backcourt is decent. Still, point guard and rebounding muscle are two key weaknesses. Minnesota averaged just 56 ppg in Big 10 play (12-4 "under the total). Minnesota was a poor 1-9 SU, 6-3 ATS on the road and lacks depth, so a winning season will be very difficult for the new coach, who is rebuilding almost from scratch.
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