NBA Southwest Division Preview
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2007-08 Dallas Mavericks
Western Conference: Southwest Division
Dallas Mavericks: 69 W - 19 L, 40-44 ATS, 06/07 season
So what happened? Dallas has enjoyed two magnificent regular seasons, loaded with talent and new found defense under coach Avery Johnson. But from that wonderful ride what sticks in their craw is how it ended: Blowing a 2-0 lead in the 2006 NBA Finals in a stunning collapse against the Miami Heat. And last season was even worse, winning 67 regular season games (after an 0-4 start) only to fold up like a cheap suit in the first round of the playoffs, a shocking 6-game series loss to No. 8 seeded Golden State (going 0-3 SU/ATS on the road).
On the one hand, they are a talented young team that has come a long way. On the other hand, they probably should have been champs two years ago, losing Game 5 in OT and blowing Game 3 at Miami despite a late fourth quarter double-digit lead. Then disappearing in the first round of the playoffs last season. Those 74 and 69 total wins the last two years now ring hollow, or at least have an asterix next to them.
On the other hand, who wouldn't want this collection of talent, with many of the players in their prime? Avery Johnson has gotten this team to play much better defense, allowing .443% shooting by opponents - 10th best in the NBA two years ago and 44% last season, 7th in the NBA. Dallas is also a strong offensive team, shooting .467% (5th) and second in the NBA at 80% from the charity stripe. Dallas averaged 100 ppg. The frontcourt has MVP 7'-0" Dirk Nowitzki (24.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg) and 6'-11" Erick Dampier (7.4 rpg) leading the team in rebounds. The 6-foot-11, 265-pound Dampier continues to rehabilitate from shoulder surgery in June that repaired a tear in his right rotator cuff, so he is not 100% at the start of the season. He averaged only 7.4 minutes in the playoff series against Golden State.
You might say a missing piece they found was the emergence of 6'-7" small forward 26-year old Josh Howard (18.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg). He was second on the team in scoring and is a high-energy player and defensive stopper. How valuable is he? Two years ago when he was injured late in the season, and when Howard scored 20 points or more, the Mavericks went 25-1 when he reached that magic number!
Sparkplug guard Jason Terry (16.7 ppg, 5.2 apg) runs the break and was third in scoring, while sixth-man Jerry Stackhouse (12 ppg) has really blossomed in his role off the bench. Center DeSagana Diop adds beef off the bench, and 6-11 rookie Nick Fazekas comes aboard. They also add 6-6 Eddie Jones, a defensive stopper. Guard Devin Harris provides backcourt depth, along with Maurice Ager and newly acquired Trenton Hassell. This team was 27-15 under the total on the road.
Avery Johnson continues to play it coy about who'll start at shooting guard -- Jerry Stackhouse, Jason Terry, Trenton Hassell or Eddie Jones. "I have my No. 1 option that I hope it can work with this guy there," Johnson said. "If it doesn't, then we have a Plan B." Dallas was 38-6 SU, 22-22 ATS at home, and 31-13 SU, 20-22 ATS on the road. The Dallas defense allowed just 93 ppg at home! They are 14-14 SU, 19-9 ATS as a dog the last two years. The coach was very good at making adjustments two years ago, but he got outcoached by Don Nelson last postseason. Against the Spurs in the 2006 playoffs, Johnson went with a smaller quick lineup by inserting Adrian Harris, Devon Harris and Jason Terry on the floor at the same time. They went uptempo against San Antonio and it worked wonders, especially after losing the first game.
They played a different style against the Suns, pounding the glass and playing great defense. But Johnson seemed at a loss last year against Golden State, as former coach Don Nelson ran rings around him. Still, Dallas is a young, quick team that can win many different ways. A young team has to take some knocks before being a champion, and the Mavs have certainly paid some dues. Now they need only to get to that next level in the postseason. They will be a force in the West again and a threat to win the title.
2007-08 San Antonio Spurs
Western Conference: Southwest Division
San Antonio Spurs: 73 W - 28 L, 57 - 42 ATS, 06/07 season
The model franchise! While other teams blow their budgets out on one star player with no one to help them get to the next level, the Spurs are able to keep three stars at reasonable money and a ton of talented role players. That's why they've won 4 NBA title since 1999, including last season. For whatever reason, they've cleaned up in odd-numbered years, winning NBA titles in 1999, 2003, 2005 and 2007. They've been a bit snake-bitten in even-numbered years, but certainly have the talent do break that jinx.
The Spurs felt they were robbed of a possible title four years ago. If it weren't for a lucky buzzer-beater in Game 5 by the Lakers' Derek Fisher, would the Spurs have been champions? They bounced back by winning the title the next year, but two years ago a similar thing happened. San Antonio came close to winning another NBA title, but lost Game 7 at home in OT to Dallas in a stunner, 119-111.
The talent is certainly in place for back-to-back titles, one thing Tim Duncan doesn't have on his remarkable resume. Coach Gregg Popovich teaches an aggressive, defensive oriented play that is essential for strong playoff runs. The big frontcourt has 7-foot Tim Duncan, who averaged 20 points, 10.6 rebounds per game. He blocked 2.3 shots per game, shot 54% from the field though he still struggles from the free throw line (63%). He's an unselfish, team-oriented star.
6'-7" Bruce Bowen is a key weapon, an outstanding defensive player, a guy who can clamp down on the opposition's big offensive gun. He and Duncan are 10 and 11 year veterans, the two who have been here for all 4 titles. They have outstanding star power along with Duncan with Emanuel Ginobili (16.5 ppg), who has stepped up as an offensive force the last three seasons. 25-year old Tony Parker has been a huge key averaging 18.6 ppg and 5.5 assists per game. Parker seems to have been around for a while, but, yes, he is only 25-years old!
They still have 6-7 Michael Finley off the bench, so this backcourt is deep and versatile. The Spurs' long-range shooters were dreadful a few years ago in the playoffs, which hurt, so they went out and acquired 35-year 6'-6" Brent Barry, who is still with them. 6-10 Matt Bonner (Florida) is an interesting newcomer, as he's a good long range shooter for a big guy. As for role players, San Antonio resigned Robert Horry and several team oriented players, such as 7-footer Francisco Elson and G Jacque Vaughn.
6-11 Tiago Splitter from Brazil was drafted, one of the best foreign players. They might have to wait a year to get him, but this is one team that can wait. That's what they did with 6-10 Ian Mahinmi. He was only 18 when the Spurs picked him in the first round of the 2005 NBA draft. The 6-foot-11, 230-pound Frenchman will spend most of this season playing in the development league and immersing himself in American culture. But the Spurs have seen enough improvement in his game and his body during two seasons in Europe to want to add him to their roster now. He averaged 3.7 points and 2.8 rebounds while averaging 12.7 minutes for Pau in the Euroleague.
San Antonio is deadly at home (40-12 SU, 30-22 ATS) and 33-16 SU, 27-20 ATS on the road. The Spurs are also 29-22 and 27-20 UNDER the total at home the last two years. Overall, the Spurs allowed 90 points per game and look loaded again. This team has everything needed to win another title. The sting of that Game 7 home loss to Dallas two years ago could still be a key motivator, as well as the rare back-to-back feat.
2007-08 Houston Rockets
Western Conference: Southwest Division
Houston Rockets: 55 W - 34 L, 41-47 ATS, 06/07 season
The Rockets have a shot at becoming the next dynasty. It was derailed two years ago in a train wreck season, because of injuries. Yao Ming played in 57 games while Tracy McGrady (bad back) played in 47 games. Last season they had better health and won 52 regular season games. This offseason, the Rockets added more talent and a new style, bringing in Rick Adelman as coach. He ran an uptempo attack in Sacramento, so the slow-down Rockets of Jeff Van Gundy are gone.
Houston has put together the hard part, getting two young NBA stars.
The Rockets have a force in the middle in 7'-6" Yao Ming, who just turned 27. Yao averaged 25 points and 9.4 rebounds per game as he continues to get better, though an injury limited him to 48 games. Tracy McGrady arrived three summers ago with great fanfare, but has battled injuries. The 28-year old 6'-8" superstar McGrady averaged 24.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game last season and played in 71 games.
McGrady is a terrific scorer who can take the pressure off Ming up front. They added backcourt help with Steve Francis, the guy originally traded from Houston for McGrady. He averaged 11.3 points and 3.6 assists per game and gives Houston a long range threat (.378% from three-point land last season), though he shot just .408% from the field. They also add PG Aaron Brooks, the 26th pick in the draft out of Oregon. Rafer Alston is a good assist man but poor outside shooter.
Teams will be less inclined to pack the middle against Ming, which can only help the talented center. They still lack solid help in the frontcourt for Ming. 6'-8" Shane Battier (10 ppg) helped out up front along with young 6-10 Steve Novak, who may see some time as a role player. 7-2 Dikembe Mutombo, at 41 the NBA's oldest player, is back for another season and is a terrific rebounder and defensive threat, though he fit in better in Van Gundy's slow-down style.
Van Gundy played a choking defensive style, which held opponents to .429% shooting from the field, tops in the NBA. However, Adelman will junk that style and force Houston to be more uptempo. Veteran guard Bonzi Wells said a conversation with new Rockets coach Rick Adelman helped him decide to stay in Houston. The temperamental Wells hardly played last season, sidelined with various injuries and a rift with coach Jeff Van Gundy. But Wells had a productive 2005-06 season under Adelman in Sacramento and averaged 23 points and 12 rebounds in the playoffs.
The Rockets were 31-14 Su, 17-27 ATS at home, and 24-20 SU, 24-20 ATS on the road. Houston is 50-37 ATS on the road the last two years! The sky's the limit for this talented young team, with two stars on the court and a solid bench. Look for this team to stumble early on as they adjust to the new system, but make a playoff run once things come together. This is a very talented team that needs to stay healthy.
2007-08 New Orleans Hornets
Western Conference: Southwest Division
New Orleans Hornets: 39 W - 43 L, 47-33 ATS, 06/07 season
It ain't easy being the Hornets. They had to find a new city a few years ago, relocating from Charlotte, and two years ago had to spent the season in another new city, Oklahoma City, because of the hurricane tragedy in New Orleans. The good news is they've developed some good young players. They are still playing in a tough division, as New Orleans will battle the Spurs, Mavericks, Rockets and Grizzlies.
Chris Paul was the key to their surprising play, the No. 4 overall selection in the 2005 NBA Draft. Paul was a consensus First Team All-American and a finalist for the Wooden, Naismith and Rupp Player of the Year awards as a Wake Forest sophomore. The 6'-0" guard averaged 17.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 8.9 assists and 1.8 steals per game last season. Paul's also considered a high-character guy. They also have 6'-9", 240-lb, 28-year old David West (18.3 ppg, 8.2 rpg), who came out of nowhere and blossomed two years ago before injuries caused him to play just 52 games last season. The two form a talented one-two punch.
They upgraded the frontcourt in the 2006 draft with 6-10 Hilton Armstrong (No. 12 overall in the first round from Connecticut). This season they add 6-8 Julian Wright from Kansas. His ballhandling and decision-making are both very good. 7-foot-1 Tyson Chandler was a big plus, pulling down 12.4 rebounds per game last season. In his first year with the Hornets, Chandler averaged career-highs of 9.5 points, 12.4 rebounds and 1.8 blocks, while shooting 62% from the field in 73 games (all starts). He collected 34 double-doubles, had 56 games of 10-plus rebounds and finished second in the NBA in rebounds per game.
They still have 6-10 Peja Stojakovic, though he played in only 13 games. Last season, he averaged 17.8 points per game but missed 69 games due to back injuries. He's had back troubles again in preseason, which is not a good sign. Joining Paul in the backcourt is Bobby Jackson and newcomer Morris Peterson. Peterson is a good shooter and adds to the depth of that team, as well as some legitimate firepower coming off the bench. 6'-7" Rasual Butler can also start or come off the bench, but is more of a weak role player.
From Tyson Chandler to Chris Paul, the Hornets have a solid starting lineup. It's the backups that have caught most of Coach Byron Scott's attention in the preseason. It appears small forward is where the Hornets will need the most help from the backups. Two of those Scott will be counting on are Rasual Butler and rookie Julian Wright. Regardless of Stojakovic's health, Scott has pushed for Butler to be more consistent. Second-year center Hilton Armstrong had been the most impressive Hornets backup in preseason, showing remarkable improvement as a scorer and rebounder from last season. This team was 24-17 SU, 24-16 ATS at home. All in all, there is youth and potential.
The Hornets traded Cedric Simmons to Cleveland for David Wesley to add depth. This is an intriguing young team, but coach Byron Scott has a challenge getting all these guys to mesh and play defense. And Scott has not impressed us in his career as a strong coach, despite an overachieving team last year. New Orleans was 18-9 SU, 16-11 ATS as a favorite. The playoffs will be tough because they are stuck in the West and expectations will be a bit higher.
2007-08 Memphis Grizzlies
Western Conference: Southwest Division
Memphis Grizzlies: 22 W - 60 L, 38-32 ATS, 06/07 season
Memphis, the worst team in the league, got the shaft at the NBA draft lottery, ending up with the No. 4 pick instead of Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. Welcome aboard new coach Marc Iavaroni! Welcome aboard new General Manager Chris Wallace! Wallace actually did a poor job as GM of the Celtics, so it's surprising he got another try. Iavaroni joins Memphis for his first head coaching stint after serving the past five seasons as an assistant coach with the Phoenix Suns, including the last three and a half years as the team's lead assistant.
The two have an almost impossible task. Instead of going for a big man, the Grizzlies selected Ohio State freshman guard Mike Conley, Jr. Conley, 6-1, 180 pounds started all 39 games for the Buckeyes, finishing third on the team in scoring (11.3 ppg) and first in assists (6.1 apg) and steals (2.2 spg). He averaged 16.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.8 assists in six NCAA Tournament games. He finished his collegiate career with 20 points, six assists and four steals in the Buckeyes' loss in the NCAA Championship game against Florida.
The frontcourt has 7-footer Pao Gasol, who led the Grizzlies with 20.8 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. He is a complete player and tough to defend. They also have 26-year old, 6'-8" Mike Miller (18.8 ppg), a pair of strong offensive players but weak on D. 7-footer Darko Milicic comes aboard, his third organization after being drafted between LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony. The starting lineup of Damon Stoudamire, Mike Miller, Rudy Gay, Stromile Swift and Pau Gasol played well in preseason.
They still have youthful athletic players with 6'-9" second year man Rudy Gay and 6'-9" Stromille Swift, who is more of a defensive player, a former Top 10 pick from LSU. Free agent forward Andre Brown joins the team, a 6-9, 245-pound forward who spent last season with the Seattle SuperSonics where he averaged 2.4 points, 1.9 rebounds and 7.1 minutes in 38 games played. If 30-year old Brian Cardinal's knee holds up, he'll provide much-needed toughness, rebounding and post defense should Hakim Warrick gets pushed around or Stromile Swift and Darko Milicic disappear. Because of injuries, Cardinal has appeared in 58, 36 and 28 games in each of the past three seasons.
Iavaroni seems to favor a small lineup with Gay at power forward. "I don't see changing Rudy from the starting lineup much," Iavaroni said. "Mike Miller? We haven't even discussed him coming off the bench and being a Sixth Man again. I like Juan Carlos Navarro coming off the bench. He's been very productive with his minutes."
This team was 14-27 SU, 19-22 ATS at home, and 8-33 SU, 19-20 ATS on the road. The year before they were 30-13 SU, 23-17 ATS at home and the previous year they were 26-17 SU, 20-22 ATS at home, and 19-24 SU, 26-17 ATS on the road. Prior to that they were 25-17 ATS at home, so this group consistently wins at home, other than last season. This team has to figure out its identity, starting off as a defensive team, then turning into a run-and-gun unit. With new players, a new GM and a new coach, there is a long way to go.
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