NBA Southeast Division Preview
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2007-2008 Miami Heat
Eastern Conference: Southeast Division
Miami Heat: 44 W - 42 L, 44-40 ATS 06/07 season
A mighty fall from grace! The Heat went from 70 wins and an NBA Championship to a 44-42 season and a quick exit from the playoffs, a 4-game sweep to Chicago. Age and injuries did them in. Dwyane Wade was never 100% and they had a largely veteran team that won the title and looked simply old last year.
Shaquille O'Neal just turned 35 and, in a sense, has taken a back seat a bit to rising star Dwyane Wade. During the regular season, Shaq averaged 17 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, playing in just 40 games. He played in 59 games when they won the title. Pat Riley is still in charge after ousting Jeff Van Gundy when he ended up winning a title.
Star guard Dwayne Wade led the Heat with 27 points and 6.7 assists per contest when they won the title. He shot 61.7 percent against the Pistons and shredded Dallas in the Finals. With the whole world watching, Wade was one of those rare athletes who rose to the occasion and hit the big shots when they were needed. Against Detroit in the playoffs, Wade averaged 26.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.83 steals and 1.5 blocks to lead the Heat to its first NBA Finals. Last season he battled injuries and averaged 27.4 points in 51 games.
Joining Wade are a bunch of old veterans. Backup center Alonzo Mourning (4.5 rpg) comes in off the bench, starting 43 games and playing in 77. Jason Williams (11 ppg) provides backcourt depth and can still dish the ball, with 5.3 assists per game. Miami just traded Antoine Walker, backup center Michael Doleac, forward Wayne Simien and a conditional first-round draft pick to Minnesota for former Miami 6'-7" swingman Ricky Davis and center Mark Blount. The deal gives Minnesota added depth and gives Miami a third scoring option it wanted in Davis. Davis averaged 17 points, 3.9 rebounds and 4.8 assists last season.
6-8 Udonis Haslem is a good role player under the boards, grabbing 8.3 rebounds per game. Jason Kapono was a surprise with 10.9 ppg, and they drafted 7-foot center Jason Smith (Colorado State) as a project. When they won the title, health was also a concern: The Heat's top eight rotation players -- Dwyane Wade, Shaquille O'Neal, Walker, Udonis Haslem, Jason Williams, Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning and James Posey -- were available together for only a total of 26 games during the regular season. So it's no coincidence that the Heat played its best basketball in the playoffs. Miami played great defense against Detroit, playing largely a half court game and slowing the pace down. All 6 games went under the total. Last season Miami went 28-15 under the total at home playing good defense there.
Miami was not a particularly strong 3-point shooting team, but led the NBA two years ago shooting from the field at 48% and was 10th last season (46%) despite all the injuries. They also have rookie 6-7 Marcus Slaughter (SDSU). Miami was 17-26 SU, 22-19 ATS on the road. Also note that Miami is 37-28 ATS as an underdog the last two seasons! Despite a poor season, they still won the division. This cast could make it to the NBA Finals, especially in the weak East. They could, indeed, get there again, with age and injuries to the veterans the only concern.
2007-08 Washington Wizards
Eastern Conference: Southeast Division
Washington Wizards: 41 W - 45 L, 37-45 ATS 06/07 season
If you like to play totals, the Washington Wizards offer the perfect high scoring package: a run-and-gun lineup that averaged 104 ppg, but a young team with no defense that allowed 105 ppg. Washington was 45-41 over the total last season (26-21 over as a favorite). This team is all about offense, with a three-man attack of 26-year old 6-4 Gilbert Arenas (28.4 ppg), 31-year old 6-9 Antawn Jamison (19.8 ppg, 8 rpg) and
28-year old 6-foot-7 Caron Butler (19 ppg) has emerged as a valuable compliment to the Arenas and Jamison.
They like to run the court, averaging 104 ppg, fourth best in the league. However, there isn't a lot of rebounding beef or defensive muscle in the low post and they allowed 105 ppg, third worst. They have a role player down low in lumbering 7-foot Brendan Haywood (6 PPG, 6.2 RPG). Center Etan Thomas has undergone open heart surgery to repair a leak of the aortic valve, a procedure that requires months of recovery, so count him out for a while. Guard Antonio Daniels adds backcourt depth.
Just as interesting has been their draft, which went tall with a couple of overseas players two years ago from Russia. 22-year old Olexsiy Pecherov from the Ukraine and 23-year old 6-10 Vladimir Veremeenko from Russia add some height and muscle at forward. Washington was 26-17 at home, but 15-28 on the road, common with young teams. Also, Washington allowed .47% shooting by opponents, fourth worst in the NBA.
Washington added 2007 first round draft pick 6-7 Nick Young and 2006 first round draft pick 7-foot Oleksiy Pecherov. Young, 22, was drafted 16th overall by the Wizards in the first round. Last season at the University of Southern California, Young ranked among the Pac-10 leaders in scoring (17.5 ppg, 2nd), three-point field goal percentage (.440, 2nd) and field goal percentage (.525, 5th) in his junior campaign.
Pecherov, 21, was drafted 18th overall by the Wizards in the 2006 NBA Draft. He played last season for BY Kyiv in his native Ukraine, and is also a member of the Ukrainian National Team. They made the playoffs last year, but were decimated by injuries and went out fast. A new season with some new faces and more youth means the Wizards are looking forward to going further in the playoffs. But poor road play and little interest in defense won't get them far, if they return at all.
2007-08 Orlando Magic
Eastern Conference: Southeast Division
Orlando Magic: 40 W - 42 L, 38-44 ATS 06/07 season
Orlando is heading in the right direction, with a young star in Dwight Howard and now a coach who knows how to teach defense. The new Magic Coach is Stan Van Gundy. He believes the Magic will be good -- much improved -- immediately. And he believes Howard, 21, is well on his way to becoming the NBA's next great player.
The 6-11 Howard averaged a team-high 17.6 points and 12.3 rebounds last season, but his production declined as the season progressed. The change from Grant Hill to Rashard Lewis as the Magic's second option should make a dramatic difference. Van Gundy's plan is to run more and be less predictable. "To utilize him better, we have to put him on the move. He should be getting two or three baskets just in transition, another two or three from offensive rebounds," he said. "And when he gets to the level of Tim Duncan, where he can consistently hit that bank shot, good luck to the rest of the league."
6-10 Rashard Lewis comes over from a Seattle, an excellent inside option, though the Magic overpaid for him. This is a decent frontcourt with 6-9 Hedo Turkoglu, who can come off the bench or start, as he averaged a respectable 13.3 ppg. He started 73 games last season. They still have 6-11 James Augustine (Illinois) and 6-10 Tony Battie, as role players off the bench. They will be asked to rebound and block shots, as there is already plenty of scoring.
The young star is 5'10 Jameer Nelson, a point guard who impressed last season with a 13 point average while leading the team in assists (4.3 apg). Nelson is developing into a solid all-around player and averaged 14.6 points and 4.9 assists per game two years ago. Carlos Arroyo and J.J. Redick provide backcourt depth and they drafted Reyshawn Terry (North Carolina).
All in all the young pieces they have put in place are impressive. They need to improve their road play, which will come with experience. This team was 15-28 on the road, 25-18 at home. Van Gundy is a fine defensive coach and notice that Orlando was 27-15 under the total at home! Don't be surprised if they are one of the surprise teams this season.
2007-2008 Atlanta Hawks
Eastern Conference: Southeast Division
Atlanta Hawks: 30 W - 52 L, 36-45 ATS 06/07 season
The Hawks unveil a new look for this season: A new uniform and new colors. Unfortunately, the same bad players will be inside those uniforms. This team had a losing record at home and averaged 93 ppg, worst in the league. And if you think they accomplished that simply by playing tough defense, understand that Atlanta allowed .466% shooting by opponents, 8th worst in the NBA. The offense was worst in the NBA, averaging 93 ppg and shot 44% as a team, third worst. They were also dead last from three-point land (.329% shooting).
They are building around 6-7 Joe Johnson, who led the team with 25 points and 4.4 assists per game. Injuries limited him to just 57 games. They are short on rebounding and defense up front, which is why they went big in the last two NBA drafts. 6-10 frontcourt force Shelden Williams came over from Duke, the No. 5 player taken in the 2006 draft, and averaged 5.4 boards per game as a rookie. They add 6-10 workhorse Al Horford from Florida with the No. 3 overall pick for this season.
11-year veteran Lorenzen Wright is at center and provides some rare experience. They still have 6-9 Marvin Williams, 6-9 Josh Smith (8.9 rpg) and promising young center 23-year old 6-11 Zaza Pachulia, who pulled down 6.9 boards per game last season. Flashy Salim Stoudamire works in the backcourt along with Tyronn Lue, but the key man for this season is rookie guard Acie Law IV. He comes over from Texas A&M (11th pick) and is a terrific all around guard, one of two first round picks for Atlanta. They still lack defense and height in the backcourt.
The frontcourt has added a lot of pieces the last three years. In addition to Williams they added 6-10, 23-year old center Solomon Jones (South Florida) in the 2006 second round. The lack of defense is why they went 48-33 "over" the total three years ago and 45-26 over last year. This team is also a ridiculous 16-66 SU, 34-47 ATS on the road the last two years. They are still several years away from a winning record, with too much youth, too little talent and no defense. Bettors beware: Atlanta was 6-10 ATS as a favorite!
2007-2008 Charlotte Bobcats
Eastern Conference: Southeast Division
Charlotte Bobcats: 33 W - 49 L, 40-41 ATS 06/07 season
In season numbers one through three, the Bobcats didn't garner many wins but then, they did stick to their strategy of building a team through the draft so as you would expect. They dented that strategy this past offseason by trading for Golden State star guard 6-6 Jason Richardson. Richardson is only 26 and has great offensive talent, though he is off a season where he battled injuries, slumped to 16 ppg, shot 41% and played in 51 games. With Baron Davis as the sparkplug of the offense, Richardson became expendable. He joins a team that has some good young players to build around, but one that struggled all season to score, something he can help with.
Former Gonzaga sharpshooter 6-8 Adam Morrison was expected to be a building block, the No. 3 overall pick two years ago. However, Morrison is likely done for the season after tearing his left knee up. Morrison struggled at the pro level averaging 11.8 ppg. He shot just .376 from the field and .337 from long range. There were times in college when athletic players much shorter than him gave him considerable trouble. He needs to adjust down the road, but the guess here is that he won't be a star in the Dirk Nowitzki mode because of his limited athletic ability.
The frontcourt has some good power and height. The Bobcats have 6-10 Emeka Okafur, a former top pick and Rookie of the Year, who looks to bounce back after injuries limited him to 26 and 67 games the last two years. He showed good shooting range as a rookie when he finished the season averaging 15.1 rpg, 10.9 rpg. Last season he averaged 14.4 ppg and 11.3 rpg. They like 7'-1" center Primoz Brezec of Slovenia, though he slipped last season (4.5 ppg). Two years ago he averaged 12 ppg, 5.6 rpg.
Gerald Wallace (18.1 ppg) was ninth in the league in steals three years ago and showed that he's a keeper by leading the team in scoring the last two years. He's also grabbed 7.5 and 7.2 boards per contest during that time. Drafting North Carolina products Raymond Felton (14 ppg) and 6'-8" Sean May added more young talent, though May has battled injuries and played in just 25 and 35 games his first two seasons. Felton was a surprise averaging 11 points per game and 5.7 assists pg as a rookie and 7 assists per game last season.
Charlotte re-signed guard Jeff McInnis, a 6-4, 190-pound Charlotte native who arrived in a January 3, 2007 trade with the New Jersey Nets. McInnis appeared in 38 games for the Bobcats last season, averaging 4.3 points, 3.3 assists and 1.6 rebounds. In three starts, he averaged 10.3 points, 5.0 assists and 3.3 rebounds, including a season-high 17 points on January 20 against Atlanta. He's a former North Carolina Tar Heel, so you can see this team is hoarding local college stars! He has played in 522 career games for seven different teams over his 10 NBA seasons with career averages of 9.9 points, 4.4 assists and 2.1 rebounds.
Rookie 6-7 Jared Dudley arrives from Boston College to add some beef to the frontcourt. The Cats lack experience and depth and accordingly and they lost many close games the last three years. Charlotte was 20-21 SU at home, though 13-28 SU, 20-20 ATS on the road. They need to improve their road defense after allowing 103 ppg away from home (24-17 and 22-19 over the total on the road the last two years). They are continuing the slow building process.
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