2008 NBA Playoffs 2nd Round: East
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Pistons (63-25 SU, 49-37 ATS) vs.
Magic (56-32 SU, 53-33 ATS)
REGULAR SEASON SERIES: Tied 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
Nov. 11: Pistons 116, at Magic 92 (Magic -3, OVER 184)
Jan. 21: at Magic 102, Pistons 100 (Pistons -2, OVER 191)
Jan. 25: at Pistons 101, Magic 93 (Pistons -7, OVER 193)
Feb. 19: Magic 103, at Pistons 85 (Pistons -7, UNDER 195)
The Pistons just faced an athletic young team in Philadelphia, winning in 6 games, and now face the young, up and coming Magic. The teams split the season series, each with a win on the other's court. Defense was not on display, going 3-1 over the total.
A talented, balanced, veteran team is the meat of the Pistons' success. The backcourt still leads the way behind the tandem of Richard Hamilton (17.7 ppg) and Chauncey Billups (17 ppg). Those two aces in the backcourt led the Pistons and scoring again. Billups is a sparkplug, while the tall Hamilton can score from anywhere and creates mismatches posting up on shorter guards. Hamilton missed six of seven games late in the season with an injury to the joint that connects his left hip and groin.
7-foot Rasheed Wallace (13 ppg, 6.7 rpg) can score, defend and block shots, as can former super-sub 6-7 Tayshaun Prince (13 ppg), who is a great defender. 6-10 Antonio McDyess was moved back into a starting role and has been great, averaging 9 points while leading the Pistons in rebounds with 8.8 per game. The Pistons' bench also contributes plenty with Jason Maxiell and Arron Afflalo. The question remains about Lindsey Hunter 's role in the playoffs. With the production of Arron Afflalo, Rodney Stuckey and Juan Dixon on the rise, Hunter's role might be smaller in the postseason. Regardless, the Pistons have enormous depth and flexibility.
Prince said he feels fresher now than he did at the start of the season. Prince's minutes are down this season, nearly three minutes lower than 2006-07. The knock on Prince has been his worn-out appearance at times during the playoffs. He hit a wall during last year's Eastern Conference finals and was missing his usual spring against the Cavaliers. The successful development and depth of the Pistons' bench allows coach Flip Saunders the luxury of reducing Prince's minutes down the stretch and keeping all the starters fresher for the playoffs.
One thing to keep in mind is that the Pistons are a very good defensive team, especially when they put their minds to it. The Pistons allow 42% shooting by opponents, second best in the East, and just 90 points per game, second best in the NBA. They were tops defensively in the East a year ago, so this is nothing new.
Detroit is 36-8 SU at home (27-16 ATS), and 27-17 SU, 22-20 ATS on the road. Detroit meshed fine with Flip Saunders during the regular season as he let this veteran team be more creative on offensive than Larry Brown, though Saunders' teams have flopped in the postseason. After giving up 89 ppg under Larry Brown, they allowed just 90, 91.9 and 90 per game under Saunders the last three seasons (and have been better offensively). After taking a 2-0 lead on the Cavaliers in last year's Eastern Conference Finals, they fell apart, losing 4 in a row, so they have something to prove.
Despite being swept by Detroit in the first round last year, Orlando is confident about this rematch. The Magic and Pistons split four games in the regular season, with Howard averaging a double-double (17.3 points and 10.8 rebounds). When asked if the Magic would be at all intimidated by the Pistons, Howard shot back, "Not at all. We know that they're going to be physical but we're not going to back down." The difference in last year's series was Chauncey Billups' ability to win his matchup with Jameer Nelson and control the tempo. That's something the Magic will have to key on, as their backcourt is just average.
This has been a very successful season for Orlando. Remember they were 40-42 last season and brought in a new coach for this year. New Magic Coach Stan Van Gundy believed the Magic would be very good, and helped deliver a winning season. They got better defensively down the stretch, as Orlando allows 99.5 ppg (13th) and 44.6% shooting by opponents (7th). Orlando carried a 12-5 run under the total into the playoffs. This is a top-heavy team, one with an excellent frontcourt but an inconsistent backcourt.
It's a great assest to have a 22-year old talent like 6-11 Dwight Howard in the middle, who averaged a team-high 20.8 points and 10.9 rebounds. The Magic beat the Toronto Raptors 4-1 in a first-round series, giving them their first second-round playoff appearance since 1996. Howard dominated with three games of at least 20 points and 20 rebounds! Newcomer 6-10 Rashard Lewis gave Howard help up front and averages 18 points and 5.4 boards, much more of an offensive force than a defensive one. 6-9 Hedo Turkoglu averages 19.7 ppg and 5.9 boards giving Orlando a terrific offensive frontcourt.
They've been without 6-8 power forward Tony Battie most of the season. Battie is trying to make an early comeback from left shoulder surgery last October. Battie is ahead of schedule in his rehab and may be able to return for the playoffs. It could help: Orlando's three key players -- Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu -- are ranked in the top 25 in minutes played per game. They looked tired in a late season loss at NY. Reserve forward Brian Cook has a broken bone in his right hand and could miss some or all of the club's opening rounds of the playoffs.
As good as the starting frontcourt is, the young backcourt has had growing pains. Point guard Jameer Nelson is 26 and averaged 11 points and a team-leading 5.6 assists. On March 25 Nelson left early after being accidentally elbowed in the face by teammate Dwight Howard. Although he had concussion-like symptoms -- dizziness and nausea -- the official diagnosis remains a jaw contusion. He plays with a specially designed mouthpiece and has had at least two concussions within the past two years. Nelson relegates Carlos Arroyo back to the bench, with Keith Bogans (8.9 ppg) and Keyon Dooling rounding out an average backcourt. Orlando has been sensational on the road at 28-15 SU/ATS, even winning once at Detroit.
Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy said the matchup issues go beyond the point guard position. "Chauncey causes problems for everybody," he said. "They always have good matchups because their guys are good. Tayshaun (Prince) and Rip (Hamilton) are tough matchups because they are good.
In the regular season the Pistons at times had a hard time containing undersized power forward Rashard Lewis and small forward Hedo Turkoglu on the perimeter. In this series, both team's frontcourts are outstanding, so the difference may be whose backcourt shines.
Celtics (70-19 SU, 55-30 ATS) vs.
Cavaliers (49-39 SU, 40-47 ATS)
REGULAR SEASON SERIES: Tied 2-2 SU, Cavs 3-1 ATS
Nov. 11: at Cavs 109, Celtics 104 (Cavs -3, game went OVER 184)
Dec. 2: at Celtics 80, Cavs 70 (Celtics -15, UNDER 184)
Feb. 5: at Cavs 114, Celtics 113 (Cavs -3, OVER 187)
Feb. 27: at Celtics 92, Cavs 87 (Celtics -9, UNDER 191)
Greg Oden and Kevin Durant didn't turn out to be the story of this NBA season. Instead, it was the remarkable turnaround of the Celtics, the greatest single season turnaround in history, topping the 1998 Spurs. The key was the addition of 31-year old 7-foot Kevin Garnett. He's off another monster season averaging 19 points, 9.4 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. This guy is a force, and racks up a tremendous amount of assists for a big man (5.7 apg two years ago). He's an unselfish, team-oriented guy. He also was the key in upgrading what was a terrible Boston defense to one that is tops in the NBA in points (90 pg) allowed and opponents shooting (41%). Boston is 47-40 under the total and 26-18 under at home, where they allow 88 ppg.
6-6 Paul Pierce is 30 and for the first time in years he is surrounded by some veteran talent. He's also a terrific all around player, putting up great numbers this season averaging 20 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists. He hasn't had to carry the load and as a result, was healthy all season. The Big Three are rounded out by 6-5 Ray Allen. He led Seattle last season with 26.4 ppg, 4.50 rpg, 4.1 apg, and for Boston averaged 18 points. That's some heavy inside/out star power.
Role players are important, too, and Boston has several key contributors. The rebounding and defensive muscle is deep with 6-8 Leon Powe (10 ppg), 6-10 Kendrick Perkins (6.2 rpg), and 6-8 rookie Big Baby Glen Davis. A key acquisition has been 6-8 James Posey. A swingman, Posey has mostly made his name in the league on perimeter defense and rebounding, coming off the bench to pull down 4.2 rebounds per game. His quick hands, long wingspan and large frame make him an above-average defender who can guard up to four positions. There are plenty of players who want to be scorers in the NBA, but it takes a different mindset to become a stopper in this league, something he learned from his college coach Skip Prosser. He was the type of defensive rebounder the team badly needed.
Posey played a key role for the Heat during their run to the 2006 Finals, coming off the bench as a shutdown defender, rebounder and a clutch three-point shooter. Posey averaged 7.3 PPG and 5.7 RPG in just under 28 minutes a game for the Heat in the postseason, and he led the team by connecting on 42% of his three-point attempts. Posey's three pointer with 3:43 remaining in the deciding Game 6 of the NBA Finals put the Heat ahead by six and helped close out the Dallas Mavericks in the Finals.
GM Danny Ainge was right about quick 21-year old point guard Rajon Rondo (10 ppg, 5.1 apg), who led in assists. 6-4 Tony Allen is a keeper, a quick guard who is still bouncing back from a serious knee injury that stopped him 33 games into last season. Veteran guard Sam Cassell and rebounder P.J. Brown were picked up late in the season for depth and experience. The Celtics are 38-6 SU, 28-15 ATS at home and 31-13 SU, 26-15 ATS on the road. They are also 8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS as a dog.
However, Boston is 0-3 SU/ATS on the road in the playoffs, after going 7-games with the Hawks. They were dominant at home (4-0 Su/ATS), but looked shaky at crunch time in Atlanta, playing poorly. Boston and Cleveland split two games this season, with LeBron James shooting just 32% against the Celtic defense.
Their opponent will be the new-look Cavaliers, courtesy of a mid-season trade. It may seem like he's been playing for decades, but this is only the third time that 23-year old star LeBron James has been to the playoffs. The 6-foot-8 James had another brilliant season, averaging 30 points, 7.9 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game. 7-foot-3 Zydrunas Ilgauskas (14 ppg, 9.4 rpg) mans the middle.
That's about all you'll recognize from last season's team, as Cleveland made a midseason trade to try and upgrade the offense. Gone are Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall and bricklaying guard Larry Hughes. 31-year old 6-7 Wally Szczerbiak (11.7 ppg) and 32-year old 6-10 Joe Smith (10 ppg) were brought in to upgrade the offense, along with PG Delonte West, while Ben Wallace was added for defensive and rebounding help. Szczerbiak's shooting touch has been off since he joined the Cavaliers in February following the trade. Szczerbiak's shooting 36.1 percent from the field and 36.5 percent from 3-point range in his 25 games with the Cavaliers. The Cavs are 7-11 ATS the last 18 games.
Cleveland still doesn't shoot well as a team, ranked 27th shooting 44% from the field. After being second to last from the charity stripe (69%) last season, they are third worst now (71%). 6-10 Anderson Varejao is an emotional player off the bench, a good role player who has excelled in the playoffs. He's a strong rebounder, pulling down 8.4 boards per game, while young Daniel Gibson (10.7 ppg) continues to improve in the backcourt. Gibson suffered a high ankle sprain that took him out of the Cavaliers' lineup shortly after the NBA All-Star break in February, missing four weeks.
Like many young teams, the Cavs are dynamite at home (29-15 SU, 17-27 ATS) where the defense steps up allowing 94 ppg. But on the road the defense allows 99 ppg, where they are just 20-24 SU, 24-20 ATS. Note that Cleveland is 26-17 under the total at home. The Cavs resorted to playing tough defense and slowing the pace down of late, something they did last year in the postseason, and the Cavs are on a 9-3 run under the total. This appears to shape up as a defensive-oriented series.
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