2007 NBA Draft Preview
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2007 NBA Draft Overview (Draft is Thursday, June 28)
Lottery selections over the last three years have included six high school players, seven college underclassmen (freshman/sophomore), two teenage Europeans, and just five college seniors. The 2007 draft is the first to be effected by the NBA age limit rule, where high school players must go to at least their freshman campaign in college. As a result, this draft is considered deep, with a lot of quality players and two potential franchise frontcourt talents in Ohio State's Greg Oden and Texas' Kevin Durant.
The historical analogy is the 1984 draft, with a great big man (Hakeem Olajuwon) and an electric offensive player (Michael Jordan) available. Houston took Olajuwon with the No. 1 pick, while Jordan went to Chicago with No. 3. Their teams won every championship from 1991 to 1998. Portland was the big winner on 2007 draft night, with a 5% chance but ended up with the top pick. Perhaps it was justice, as one year ago Portland was the biggest loser as they slipped from having the best chance of winning the 2006 top pick to the fourth overall selection. The Grizzlies went into the lottery with the best chance of winning (25.0%), the Celtics were second (19.9%) and the Bucks third (15.6%), but they wound up 4-6. Here's a look at projected draftees based on team needs.
1. Portland Trail Blazers: The Blazers have a ton of youth and talent, with Rookie of the Year guard Brandon Roy, 6-10 rookie LaMarcus Aldridge and 25-year old workhorse Zach Randolph. The Blazers were second worst in the NBA in scoring and in the middle of the pack in points allowed. However, holding the No. 1 pick doesn't mean they will go for the best offensive player like Kevin Durant. Ohio State center 7-foot, 245-lb Greg Oden has the size and potential to be the next dominant center and makes the most sense, the best center since Tim Duncan 10 years ago. You don't waste a shot like this. He would be a great fit, too, with all the big men in the West and all the offensive young talent Portland already has. Pick: 7-0 C Greg Oden, Ohio State
2. Seattle Sonics: On draft day when the ping pong balls fell their way, the Sonics had no coach, no general manager, and a president less than a month into his job. This was an unexpected gift for a franchise that is talking about relocating. All of which means they take a skilled star offensive player who can sell tickets and be an electric offense force for the next 10 years. Oh, and he was College Player of the Year, not Greg Oden. Pick: 6-10 F Kevin Durant, Texas
3. Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks are short on talent and need help everywhere. The best news is that the Hawks came away with the No. 3 and 11 overall picks on draft lottery night, so they can address their needs at point guard and more big men. They are solid with young forwards Josh Smith and Marvin Williams. "We've had point guard issues because of injuries," GM Billy Knight said. "We are not a good defensive rebounding team and we give up too many points in the paint." Ohio State ball handler Mike Conley will be available, but in a draft deep with big men, it makes more sense to go there. There's a terrific shot-blocking 6-9 forward with a 7-4 wingspan available. Pick: 6-9 F Brandan Wright, North Carolina
4. Memphis Grizzlies: One of the best GMs in the history of the game, and easily the best the last 25 years, old pro Jerry West got a terrible bit of bad luck on draft night. Instead of getting the No. 1 pick, they fell all the way to No. 4. He deserved better on the way to retirement. Offense was not a problem for the run-and-gun Grizzlies, but their defense was nonexistent. If they don't trade the pick, they could go for an offensive big man like skinny 7-foot Chinese forward Yi Jianlian, or defensive frontcourt forces like Florida juniors Al Horford and Joakim Noah, or Eurpoean Tiago Splitter. Florida's Corey Brewer is a super athletic, high energy small forward who would fill a lot of needs, including being a great defender. Pick: 6-8 F Corey Brewer, Florida
5. Boston Celtics: After trading away Rookie of the Year Brandon Roy with this pick a year ago (for Sebastian Telfair - ouch), the Celtics probably have to draft the best available big man. They have a lot of young talent, but not enough defense and rebounding help for Paul Pierce. Defensive and rebounding potential is a concern, too, which is what Boston needs most, meaning they will look at Florida juniors Al Horford and Joakim Noah. Celtics GM Danny Ainge has also been to the Orient to scout Chinese 7-foot, 230-lb F Yi Jianlian. He has a nice jump-shot with excellent ball-handling skills, but lacks bulk, a skinny, finesse player in the low post. Pick: 7-0 Yi Jianlian, Guangdong Tigers
6. Milwaukee Bucks: Milwaukee was one of the laziest defensive teams in the NBA, getting killed on the glass often. They allowed 104 ppg, fourth worst in the league. Bucks general manager Larry Harris expects his first-round draft pick to have a major role in the team's rotation. "We're a team that we feel is going to be a playoff team. And we believe this guy is going to play. This guy is going to be a rotation guy that is going to play minutes for us this year." There's a forward from Kansas who is explosive off his feet and a strong, unselfish passer, both attributes that would aid the run-and-gun Bucks right away. Pick: 6-9 Julian Wright, Kansas
7. Minnesota Timberwolves: Before tanking it, the T-Wolves were actually a decent defensive team. Their backcourt is set with PG Randy Foye (their pick last season) and Ricky Davis, so getting some offensive help up front for Kevin Garnett would be in the cards. Wolves Vice President of Basketball operations Kevin McHale has said he wants the team to get bigger at forward and center, and there should be a player available to fill that role. Among those who could be available are Yi Jianlian, the skinny 7-footer from China whose game is polished on offense, though not powerful, and Florida forwards Joakim Noah and Al Horford. The 245-lb Horford would help Garnett out on the boards. Pick: 6-9 F Al Horford, Florida
8. Charlotte Bobcats: The young up and coming Bobcats suffered through another forgettable season with injuries. They also have a new coach in Sam Vincent, a former Dallas Mavericks assistant. They are a recent expansion team, so the best player left will be taken. It's likely the Bobcats will have their choice of several versatile wing players, like Georgetown's Jeff Green or Florida's Joakim Noah. The rush of big men continues as Emeka Okafur gets help up front. After taking shooter Adam Morrison last season, the Bobcats go for a physical, low post presence. Pick: 6-11 Joakim Noah, Florida
9. Chicago Bulls (from the Knicks): Thank you, Isiah Thomas! Incredibly, the Bulls made the playoffs and got the Knicks No. 1 pick from the Eddy Curry deal last year (Tyrus Thomas) AND this season. Chicago has a glut of athletic players who can score and their backcourt is deep and young. GM John Paxson said he wants to find an interior scorer who can complement center Ben Wallace and take some pressure off the perimeter players. Washington freshman center Spencer Hawes fits the bill, a versatile offensive player, an excellent passer and one who can run the court. Pick: 7-0 C Spencer Hawes, Washington
10. Sacramento Kings: The declining Kings are in that unfortunate middle ground, with some talented veteran players like Ron Artest, playmaker Mike Bibby, and young Kevin Martin, but not enough to be a force in the competitive West. They certainly aren't big enough up front, with center Brad Miller a better passer than defensive force. Tiago Splitter is a steady 7-footer, smart and a fine defensive player in Europe. Pick: 7-0 Tiago Splitter, Spain
11. Atlanta Hawks (from Indiana): This is the second pick for the Hawks. After grabbing a big man at No. 3, Atlanta needs a ball handler badly and there will be some choice candidates such as Mike Conley, Gabe Pruitt and Acie Law. Conley is quick and smart with terrific ballhandling skills, court vision and defense. Pick: 6-0 PG Mike Conley, Ohio State
12. Philadephia 76ers: Philadelphia is likely to try and make a trade to move up, as they have three first round picks. The young 76ers need an aggressive power forward who can play in the post, one who can rebound and play the physical game. Florida State F Al Thornton might be that player, or Georgetown's Jeff Green. They also have a history of taking the best player available, so if things stay the way they are, an outstanding guard should be available. Pick: 6-0 PG Acie Law IV, Texas A&M
13. New Orleans Hornets: Two years ago the Hornets got an ace in the backcourt in Rookie of the Year Chris Paul while trading away Jamal Magliorre. Frontcourt scoring help is needed, as they already have a budding young All-Star, Tyson Chandler, anchored at center and ever-improving David West at power forward. Hornets General Manager Jeff Bower said, "We want to get an asset, whether that's a particular player or a pick that can lead to other things. We're going to investigate the best way of acquiring assets for our team." Which means the best role player available, probably an offensive force as Peja Stojakovic is getting older and has had back problems. Pick: 6-8 F Jeff Green, Georgetown
14. LA Clippers: With Sam Cassell's age and a talented young frontcourt, there's no doubt the Clippers would love one of the highly regarded guards to slip this far. This draft is considered key for the Clippers because they lack depth on the wing. Clippers forward Corey Maggette could terminate the final year of his contract and become a free agent after next season, so the Clippers are expected to draft a perimeter player. The team did not have a first-round selection in the 2006 draft, and the Clippers' 2005 lottery pick, Yaroslav Korolev, has not developed as expected. The 20-year-old Russian forward played in 24 games as a rookie and only 10 this season. A local shooting guard/forward could be a nice fit. Pick: 6-6 G/F Nick Young, U.S.C.
15. Detroit Pistons (from Orlando): And the rich get richer....The best team in the East doesn't need star power, just a good role player and they should be able to find an excellent player to develop in this spot. This team is loaded up front and Detroit likes versatility and size on the perimeter. Georgia Tech's Thaddeus Young can hit shots from the perimeter or from mid-range. Pick: 6-8 F Thaddeus Young, Georgia Tech
16. Washington Wizards: Will Washington go for a foreign player again? The Wizards selected Oleksiy Pecherov, a 7-foot forward from Ukraine, in the first round of the 2006 draft. In five games with Washington's summer league team, the 7-foot Pecherov averaged 12.6 points and 7.6 rebounds while shooting 46.2 percent. He impressed Coach Eddie Jordan with his ballhandling, shooting and rebounding skills. The Wizards also may bring over last year's second-round pick, Vladimir Veremeenko, for summer league play. Veremeenko, a 6-10 forward, is from Belarus and played in Russia this season. The Wizards also own the NBA rights to one of the top players in Europe, 6-4 point guard Juan Carlos Navarro, who was selected by Washington in the second round of the 2002 draft. Navarro, who will turn 27 this summer, has starred for Barcelona of the Spanish Pro League for several seasons and was a part of Spain's World Championship team last summer. That's a lot of overseas talent not helping them! They could use a shot blocker and defensive force to help balance their great offense. Pick: 6-10 F Sean Williams, Boston College
17. New Jersey Nets: This is a balanced all around team with only age an issue with some of their stars. An eventual replacement for Jason Kidd or Vince Carter? The ACC could help with Georgia Tech F Thaddeus Young, Vandy's 6-7 Derrick Byers or Florida State F Al Thornton would ease the inside scoring burden off the often-injured Vince Carter. Pick: 6-8 F Al Thornton, Florida State
18. Golden State Warriors: They've got plenty of offense, of course, so some type of defensive big man or a rebounder who can pass would help. They could go overseas for help at center with 7-foot Marc Gasol (Spain), a shot blocker like Alabama's Jermario Davidson, or Duke's Josh McRoberts. McRoberts comes from a team-oriented college program and is said to have excellent ballhandling and passing skills, which would be a good fit with this wide-open offense. Pick: 6-10 F Josh McRoberts, Duke
19. L.A. Lakers: For a playoff team, the Lakers sure have a lot of holes. Too many marginal role players, not enough defense and not enough help for Kobe. Lakers center Kwame Brown just had ankle surgery, a move that casts some doubt over his playing status for the start of next season. Another ball handler/scoring option would also help. Pick: 6-7 G Derrick Byers, Georgia Tech
20. Miami Heat: Outside of Dwyane Wade, this team got old fast, so youth is needed everywhere. Alonzo Mourning is 37, Gary Payton is 38, and Eddie Jones is 35. If Mourning retires, the Heat likely would pursue a low-post player in the draft. Other priorities include adding depth at point guard, a consistent third scorer to complement Shaq O'Neal and Dwyane Wade and perimeter defensive help. Pick: 7-0 C Marc Gasol, Spain
21. Philadephia 76ers (from Denver): Second pick for Philadelphia to help their youth movement. There's a skinny European project at center, a skilled big man with great height who runs the floor extremely well and is an unselfish passer. He needs time, and that's one thing the rebuilding 76ers have. Pick: 7-2 Ante Tomic, Croatia
22. Charlotte Bobcats (from Toronto): This team needs offense badly, with few scoring options. They have a good point guard in Ray Felton and a frontcourt force in Emeka Okafur. Last year they took outside shooter Adam Morrison, but still need more offense. Athletic 6-6 shooting guard Rudy Fernandez (Spain) would help, along with a strong scorer from a small U.S. school. Pick: 6-4 G Rodney Stuckey, Eastern Washington
23. NY Knicks (from Chicago): The Knicks have a draft pick? Yes they do, though trading for Eddy Curry cost them a much higher pick. They also have all kinds of needs. After adding a defensive guard in the first round a year ago, improving the offense would help, particularly up front. Arizona's Marcus Williams is all about offense, a good rebounder, and at times he's been criticized for being selfish - a perfect fit with Stephon Marbury! Pick: 6-7 F Marcus Williams, Arizona
24. Phoenix Suns (from Cleveland): The first team in the draft that doesn't need anything. A point guard to learn from aging Steve Nash, or a role playing rebounder, or perhaps a future project as they can afford to be patient. There's a Georgia Tech point guard who has great size, athleticism, and a good shooting touch with excellent ball-handling skills. One weakness is that he's not great in a half-court style, but Phoenix could care less about the half court game. Pick: 6-5 PG Jarvis Crittenton, Georgia Tech
25. Utah Jazz: A talented up and coming young team in the West needs only to stockpile more depth, which means they can take a chance. They could take offensive European players like 6-5 Rudy Fernandez (Spain) or 6-8 Nicholos Batum (France). Fernandez is a shooting guard who would be a good fit for coach Jerry Sloan, as he is intense and plays with fire. Pick: 6-5 Rudy Fernandez, Spain
26. Houston Rockets: Jeff Van Gundy and his slow-down, choking defense is out, and uptempo Rick Adelman is in. Adelman ran the Sacramento Kings and their aggressive offensive attack, and the Houston GM wants more points and excitement. Adding a third scoring option to Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady is in the cards. Pick: 6-5
Marco Belinelli, Italy
27. Detroit Pistons: The Pistons have a deep, veteran team that will look to add depth. There are several European backcourt scorers they could take a chance on, of course, the Darko Milic disaster is still fresh on the mind of GM Joe Dumars, the only real error he's made (No. 2 overall pick). They could also take a U.S. kid as a defensive force up front with Ben Wallace a year removed from the scene. Pick: 6-10 F Jermareo Davidson, Alabama
28. San Antonio Spurs: Does this team even need anything? No. They will have a good shot at some European players and enough of a talented team already that they won't have to worry about making a mistake. After all, the Spurs can be patient and have been great at overseas evaluation with Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. Still, this team wins with defense and rebounding, and can you imagine a frontcourt of Big Glen Davis and Tim Duncan? Pick: 6-8, Glen Davis, L.S.U.
29. Phoenix Suns: Second pick in the first round for the Suns. This would be a best-talent-available pick. They could bulk up the frontcourt with players like Nick Fazekas or Aaron Gray, or grab athletic backcourt players like 6-5 Arron Affalo, 6-6 Morris Almond or 6-6 Alondo Tucker. Almond is a physical swingman who impressed NBA scouts at the Orlando pre-draft camp. Scores from almost anywhere on the floor, which fits in with the Phoenix style. Pick: 6-6 G Morris Almond, Rice
30. Philadephia 76ers (from Dallas): Third pick for Philadelphia to help their youth movement. They likely will have addressed the frontcourt by now, so this pick could grab any one of the remaining scorers still on the table. Ohio State freshman Daequan Cook is athletic with excellent long range shooting touch. He still needs polish on his defensive play and passing, but the 76ers are in a long rebuilding mode stockpiling talent, so they can wait. Pick: 6-5 G Daequan Cook, Ohio State
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