MLB NL West: 2008 Preview
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Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72 in 2007)
In the wild west of 2007, Arizona came out of nowhere and won the division, a remarkable turnaround for a franchise that in 2004 was 51-111 after trading Randy Johnson. The next two seasons Arizona improved to 77 and 76 wins, before copping a crown last summer. The offense is below average, so an outstanding young pitching staff carries the load. The Diamondbacks got 44-year old Randy Johnson back but he made only 10 starts throwing 52 innings in 2007. He was 4-3 with a 3.81 ERA. He still has good stuff, fanning 72 in 56 innings. The Big Unit has 5 Cy Young Awards, has made 10 All-Star Game appearances and was named co-MVP of the D-backs' 2001 World Series champion team. He's 44 and underwent back surgery in October of 2006 to repair a herniated disc.
Johnson struggled his last two years in the American League, as a two-pitch pitcher. His fastball is down to 90-94 and his slider is no longer as hard. Johnson was 17-11 in 2006, throwing 205 innings, although he gave up too many home runs with a poor 5.00 ERA. Johnson battled back problems throughout the majority of the 2006 season, too. Remember that with Arizona in 2004, the Big Unit had 290 strikeouts in 245 innings, just 44 walks and a 2.60 ERA. He is projected as the No. 3 starter on this deep staff.
The real ace of the staff, though, is 28-year old Brandon Webb. He is off an 18-10 season, firing 236 innings with a 3.01 ERA. Webb took home his first National League Cy Young Award in 2006, with a 16-8 mark to go along with a 3.10 ERA. That season Webb finished in the top three in the league in innings pitched (235), complete games (5), ERA and shutouts (3). He also posted 30 scoreless innings over three-plus starts from May 20 through the fifth inning of his June 5 start against the Phillies. Webb has finished first and second in Cy Young balloting the past two seasons.
The Arizona GM gave up six young players from Oakland to secure ace righty Dan Haren. The 27-year old Haren went 15-9 with a 3.07 ERA in 222 innings, as opponents hit just .247 off him. Heading to the NL should only help him, giving Arizona a dynamite one-two punch atop the rotation. Lefty Doug Davis and Micah Owings round out the rotation. Davis will be the No. 4 starter, and he was the opening day starter with the Brewers two years ago. Davis was 13-12 with a 4.25 ERA last summer, throwing 192 innings. He's a soft thrower and walks too many batters (95), but wiggled out of a lot of jams. He was 11-11 in 2006 with a 4.91 ERA over 203 1/3 innings pitched, his third consecutive 200-plus inning season before throwing 192 IP in 2007.
The No. 5 spot has 25-year old Micah Owings, who was very good at 8-8 with a 4.30 ERA in 152 innings. The bullpen has some new looks. Closer Jose Valverde had 47 saves, but was dealt to Houston, so Brandon Lyon was promoted from set-up man to closer. Lyon had 14 saves in 2005 and two in 2007, when he spent most of the season as Valverde's eighth-inning set-up man. Lyon went 6-4 with a 2.68 ERA in 73 appearances last year. Lyon got the nod over right-hander Tony Pena, a key part of the bullpen last season. The 26-year-old Pena had a 3.27 ERA and a 5-4 record, allowing just 63 hits in 85 innings. Pena had two saves for Arizona and has been projected a future closer.
Chad Qualls came from Houston in the Valverde trade and adds bullpen depth and had five saves for the Astros. 29-year-old Juan Cruz went 6-1 with a 3.10 ERA for the NL West champions last year in 61 innings. Other live arms include Edgar Gonzalez and Dustin Nippert. This pitching staff is loaded, ranking 4th in the NL in ERA and first in saves with 51. The thing to watch early in the season is the closer roll with Lyon stepping in for Valverde.
The offense still has work to do, ranking 16th in batting in the NL and 14th in runs. The outfield has 31-year old LF Eric Byrnes, who hit 27 HRs with 37 doubles and 25 steals in 2006, and followed that up last season with 21 homers, a .286 average, 50 steals and 83 RBI. 24-year old Centerfielder Chris Young's numbers improved across the board in the second half, and he finished with 32 homers, though a poor .237 average. He also stole 27 bases. RFs Jeff Salazar and Justin Upton will vie for time but don't provide much offense.
24-year old third baseman Mark Reynolds (.279, 17 HRs) had a strong August and September, while 24-year old Shortstop Stephen Drew's (.238, 12 HRs) production increased in the last month of the season and he was the team's best hitter in the postseason. 2B Orlando Hudson (.294, 10 steals, 10 HRs) is off a decent season, while 25-year old 1B Conor Jackson hit .284 with 15 homers and 60 RBI. There is plenty of youth on this team, both on the mound and in the field. There is tremendous upside to this team.
A year ago we wrote, "For 2007, the offense is a potential weak spot, but this pitching depth looks very strong, so the Diamondbacks appear to be a team built for the long haul. In the weak NL West, look for a winning season from Arizona and a possible division title, which at 9-to-1 is good wagering value." Even at 3-to-1 this season, they are likely to repeat as division champs with all this young talent and incredible pitching.
San Diego Padres (89-74 in 2007)
GM Kevin Towers has done several rebuilding jobs with the Padres and he's one of the few talented GMs who knows how to build a winner on a limited budget. His Padres won the West in 2006 and have won 88 and 89 games the last two seasons. The numbers in 2007 tell it all about this team: 15th in batting average in the NL, 7th in runs scored, first in pitching. This is the best pitcher's park in baseball and the worst offensive park. Trying to find a way to coax some offense (speed?) from this huge park will be a key.
Actually, speed doesn't appear to be on the agenda despite the huge ballpark dimensions. San Diego ranked 16th in the NL with just 55 steals, and steal leader Mike Cameron (18) is gone. Outside of the signing of 1B Tony Clark and CF Jim Edmonds, the Paders will stick with the kids on offense. 28-year old SS Khalil Greene (.254, 27 HRs) has shown some surprising power, hitting 15 homers in two straight seasons before belting 27 in 2007.
26-year old 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff busted out with 18 homers and a .275 average, while 25-year old 1B Adrian Gonzalez provides the power with a team leading 100 RBI and 30 homers. In 2006 he had 24 HRs, 38 doubles, and a .304 average. 33-year old 2B Tadahito Iguchi comes over from the White Sox after hitting .267 with 9 homers and 14 steals. He won't find this park any easier to hit in. Josh Bard and Michael Barrett provide good versatility behind the plate. 35-year-old 1B Tony Clark gets to play for the team he grew up rooting for and Clark batted .249 with 17 homers and 51 RBIs in 221 at-bats with Arizona in 2007.
The outfield has new looks alongside RF Brian Giles, who hit .271, but slumped to 13 homers and 51 RBI. CF Jim Edmonds comes over from the Cardinals, with his 8 Gold Gloves and 37-year old body that his far past its prime. He hit 12 homers in 365 at bats last season. LF Scott Hairston is penciled in in left, after hitting 11 HRs in half a season in 2007. Gone are Marcus Giles and Mike Cameron. Speed is essential to the outfield defense to track down flies in the spacious Petco outfield, but they have age issues with Giles and Edmonds each 37.
The starting rotation is the backbone of the team. They have an ace in 26-year old RHP Jake Peavy, who dominated the NL at 19-6 with a 2.54 ERA in 223 innings. He allowed just 169 hits while fanning 240! In 2006 he went only 11-14 with a 4.09 ERA, but had some sizzling numbers: 202 innings pitched, 215 strikeouts, 62 walks while opponents hit just .242 off him. In 2004 he was 15-6, 2.27 ERA and in 2005 he went 13-7 with a 2.88 ERA. 6-foot-10 righty Chris Young came over from Texas and was strong at 9-8 with a 3.12 ERA in 30 starts. He struck out close to 9 per game.
This is a perfect park for 41-year old Greg Maddux, who doesn't walk anyone and can still pitch. Maddux was 14-11 with a 4.14 ERA last summer, making 34 starts in 198 innings. Justin Germano (7-10, 133 IP) and 28-year old Clay Hensley (2-3 in 9 starts) round out the No. 4 and 5 spots. In 2006 Hensley surprised at 11-12, with a 3.71 ERA in 187 IP. Hensley is coming off shoulder surgery, and was the only pitcher of the 32 that started camp who did not throw off a mound. Former Cub ace Mark Prior was also picked up, a guy who needs to get his health back first, along with lefty Randy Wolf, who spoke of retirement late last season.
Two years ago Towers obtained catcher Doug Mirabelli from Boston, then when the Sox realized they had no one to catch knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, raced in to get Mirabelli back. For the 38-year old no-hit catcher, Towers obtained catcher Josh Bard and 24-year old pitcher Cla Meredith. Meredith was spectacular in relief (5-1, 1.07 ERA) that season, and followed that up last summer with a 3.50 ERA in 79 innings. However, he allowed 94 hits and went 0-5, not even close to his 2006 numbers.
27-year old Wilfredo Ledezma comes over from the Tigers, where he struggled at 3-3 with a 5.61 ERA. Coming to the NL could help, but he needs to cut down his walks (38 in 59 innings). Meredith anchors the middle relief corps, along with Tim Stauffer, Heath Bell and Joe Thatcher. They set things up for 40-year old RHP closer Trevor Hoffman, who is still an ace with 41, 43, 46 and 42 saves the last four years. Hoffman had a 2.98 ERA last season fanning 44 in 57 innings, but it ended terribly for him with losses at Milwaukee and the one-game playoff against Colorado, knocking them from the postseason. With a strong bullpen, an excellent five-deep starting rotation, the Padres looked equipped to make a run for 90 wins, but the age in the outfield may slow them down.
Los Angeles Dodgers (82-80 in 2007)
The Dodgers spent a lot of money in the offseason for CF Andruw Jones ($36 million) and new manager Joe Torre. They hope that can get them over the hump for a team that has won 88 and 82 games the last two years under Grady Little, who was shown the door. Jones was brought in to provide offense to a team that finished 3rd in the NL in batting (.275), yet 10th in runs scored and 13th in slugging. Dodger stadium has a huge outfield, so Jones' defense (10 gold gloves) will be an asset, but will he hit homers in such a big park? The 30-year old CF Jones had two monster years with 51 home runs and 128 RBI in 2005, and 41 HRs/129 RBI in 2006, then slumped to .222 with 26 homers last summer in his contract year.
The confident and even-tempered Torre will be a major upgrade over Little, whose teams in Boston and LA underachieved. Jones replaces Juan Pierre in center, a huge upgrade. 23-year old RF Matt Kemp had 10 homers in 42 RBI in half a season (292 at bats) but hit .342! Teamed with 25-year old LF Andre Ethier (13 HRs, .284) this outfield looks upgraded and productive. Pierre can platoon, play any outfield position and pinch run, stealing 64 bases.
There's talent (and age) in the infield! The offense has 30-year old SS Rafael Furcal leading off. He hit .270 and stole 25 bases, but hasn't quite been the catalyst atop the order they've been hoping for. Nomar Garciaparra turns 35 at the All Star break and will play third after hitting 7 homers with a .288 average. 2B Jeff Kent went from 29 HRs in 2005 to 14 in 2006 and 20 last season, so age is catching up with the 40-year old infielder. Andy LaRoche, Tony Abreu and Delwyn Young are utility infielders fighting for time. Who's on first? 23-year old super prospect James Loney, who hit .331 and belted 15 homers in 344 at bats last summer. 38-year old 1B Mark Sweeney is also off the bench and can hit in a pinch. This offense looks better, though there are age concerns in the infield.
The starting staff is better on paper than they have been on the field. Sinkerballer Derek Lowe (12-14, 3.88 ERA) has thrown 222, 218 and 199 innings for the Dodgers the last three seasons, going 16-8 two years ago. He's a valuable starter and innings eater, but has a tendency to implode when things aren't going well or lose concentration for a half-inning at times. Hard throwing 29-year old Brad Penny was focused last season, after going 16-9 in 189 innings in 2006 when he started the All-Star game, but tailed off badly in the season half. Last season he was determined to make up for that, and did at 16-4 with a 3.03 ERA in 208 innings. His stuff is exceptional, though his strikeouts tailed off to just 135.
That's a fine one-two punch atop the order. After that, it's a crap shoot. Former Giants ace Jason Schmidt, 35, was a bust because of injuries, which surprised no one except the Dodgers' front office. He's still on the roster at (gulp) $15-million. That's almost same amount they are paying Lowe and Penny combined! Schmidt had season-ending shoulder surgery in June but is rehabbing well. Schmidt was 1-4 with a 6.31 earned-run average in six starts last season, the first year of his three-year, $47-million contract. Chad Billingsley is probably better suited for long relief, but he made 20 starts and went 12-5 with a 3.31 ERA because of the injuries to Schmidt and Randy Wolf. Lefty Eric Stults (age 28) is also a candidate for the rotation along with 36-year old Esteban Loaiza.
The bullpen was saved in 2006 by Takashi Saito (6-2, 24 saves, 2.07 ERA), who fanned 107 in 78 innings! He was even better last season with 39 saves, a 1.40 ERA allowing just 33 hits in 64 innings. Last month he turned 38. Middle relief is very good with Yhency Brazoban, Eric Hull and Jonathan Broxton (2.85). Keep an eye on top pitching prospect Clayton Kershaw. With all the talent on this team (plus a $99-million payroll in 2007) the Dodgers have underachieved. With Jones and Torre aboard, they should be battling for the division title with San Diego and Arizona.
Colorado Rockies (90-73 in 2007)
It's not the easy way to get to a World Series, but the Rockies will take it. The Colorado makeover and amazing late season run astounded the sports world last season. Colorado won 14 of its final 15 games to reach the playoffs, then seven consecutive postseason games against NL competition. A World Series sweep by the Red Sox was the only blemish on their spectacular run. So how did they do it? Balance! An offense that ranked first in batting in the NL, second in runs scored, great defense and some quality young pitching.
You win with pitching so the Rockies went with the youth movement and it has paid off for third year manager Clint Hurdle. The pitching staff has 27-year old lefty Jeff Francis, who was 17-9 in 215 innings in 2007 with a 4.22 ERA. He's half of a fine lefty/righty punch with 28-year old Aaron Cook (8-7, 166 IP, 4.12 ERA). Cook is not a strikeout pitcher, but survives in Coors Field with his sinker. Francis fanned 165 to lead the staff. Veteran Josh Fogg added 165 innings while going 10-9 with a 4.94 ERA, but is gone.
The kids will pick up the No. 3, 4 and 5 spots. 25-year old righty Jason Hirsh is 6-foot-8 and made 19 starts, going 5-7 with a 4.81 ERA in 112 innings. He allowed just 103 hits in 112 innings, outstanding numbers for this park. 24-year old Ubaldo Jimenez (4-4) made 15 starts and was tough to hit, and 22-year old lefty Franklin Morales was a spot starter with a 3.43 ERA in 39 innings. Veteran lefty Mark Redman is on the roster, but as a soft-throwing junkball hurler, he probably isn't suited for this park. This is not a team that asks its starters to go 7-8 innings.
Rotating young arms in from the bullpen has worked. 25-year old Manny Corpas (19 saves, 2.08 ERA) and 32-year old Brian Fuentes (20 saves, 3.08 ERA) rotated and combined for 39 saves and 24 holds.
Valuable set up man LaTroy Hawkins is gone, but there are plenty of arms in Taylor Buchholz, Matt Herges (2.96 ERA), Josh Towers and Luis Vizcaino, while veteran Kip Wells can be a spot starter and reliever. Solid pitching is how the Rockies began their magical run to the World Series by winning 21 of 22 games.
The offense had new looks with some exciting kids who took charge, led by dynamic 6-foot-3 23-year old SS Troy Tulowitzki. He hit .291 with 24 homers, 99 RBI while playing electric defense, helping the pitching staff. There will be a new double play combo as Omar Quintanilla and Ian Stewart battle for second base. Garrett Atkins anchors the hot corner with 25 homers and a .301 average, while 34-year old first baseman Todd Helton hit .320 but only had 15 and 17 home runs the last two years.
Yorvit Torrealba catches and hit .255 with 8 homers. This is the best defensive team in the NL, with one exception: the Rockies were horrid at throwing out base-stealers. The Rockies ranked 12th in the National League, throwing out just 20.6 percent of base-stealers. Catcher Yorvit Torrealba, hampered by a sore shoulder he injured before the 2006 season, tossed out just 13-of-74 base-stealers. Among starting NL catchers, only the Brewers' Johnny Estrada (13.1 percent) was worse.
CF Willy Taveras (33 steals) came over from Houston and provided some speed at the top of the order, hitting .320 with a .367 OBP. LF Matt Holliday if off two monster seasons, belting 34 and 36 homers. Last season he hit 36 bombs, with a .340 average and 137 RBI, and in 2006 he hit .326, 34 HRs, 114 RBI. RF Brad Hawpe (29 HRs, 116 RBI) rounds out a balanced and potent outfield. As usual, Colorado was 51-31 at home last season, but just 39-42 on the road. In 2005, the Rockies were 40-41 at home, but just 27-54 on the road, a trait that continued even with a team that won the NL. The farm system has improved in recent seasons and it all came to fruition in 2007. The take here is that last fall was a bit of a fluke. The Rockies may be over .500 with their defense and young talent, but another playoff run is unlikely in this competitive division.
San Francisco Giants (71-91 in 2007)
Of course, team performance often goes in cycles, and you'll notice the Giants' win totals the last 5 years: 92, 100, 91, 75, 76 and 71 wins. They made a mistake breaking the bank for free agent pitcher Barry Zito ($126 million, seven-year contract), and clearly overpaid for a guy who walked 83 in 196 innings, with a 4.53 ERA and an 11-13 record. For this season they let their leading home run hitter, some guy named Bonds, walk. On the bright side, they finally have decided to get younger and this pitching staff has potential to be decent.
They overpaid for Zito, but he does give them innings and is 29-years old. The team ERA was 5th in the NL and third with 86 quality starts. 23-year old Matt Cain (7-16) is better than that record, throwing 200 innings with a 3.65 ERA. Cain had a sizzling debut in 2005, with a 2.33 ERA in 46 innings, and became a quality starter in 2006 winning 13 games. They also like 27-year old lefty Noah Lowry (14-8, 3.92 ERA, 156 innings) and 23-year old rookie Tim Lincecum impressed with a 7-5 record and a 4.00 ERA in 146 innings. He fanned 150 with outstanding stuff.
Lowry is 27 and has made only 100 starts, yet that makes him the second-most experienced starter in the bunch. Kevin Correia (4-7, 3.45 ERA) has been around since 2003, but he has ping-ponged between the rotation and bullpen so much that he has only three more big-league starts than Lincecum (27 to 24). Brad Hennessey stepped up as the closer with 19 saves and a 3.42 ERA. The average pen has Vinnie Chulk, lefty specialist Steve Kline, Jose Capellan and righty Brian Wilson adds depth.
The offense has been old and home run dominated of late, but they are taking the speed route this season. This year, manager Bruce Bochy plans to give most of his players a standing green light. New first-base and running coach Roberto Kelly stole 235 bases for eight big-league teams. Last year, as manager of the Giants' low Single-A team in Augusta, Ga., his GreenJackets attempted 297 steals in 150 games and succeeded 212 times. "Obviously, our team is going to change," Kelly said. "We're not going to be a home-run-hitting ballclub. We're going to have to be a team that does the little things, that runs and gets guys over, and I think baserunning is going to be a big part of our success this year."
Speed, yes. Success/Wins...probably not much. The Giants infield features 40-year old SS Omar Vizquel, who stole 24 and 14 bases the last two seasons, while young shortstop Emmanuel Burris led Augusta with 51 thefts. 36-year old 2B Ray Durham fell off the map (.211, 11 HRs 21 doubles) as age caught up to him, and 33-year old catcher Benjie Molina is off a 19 HR/.276 average season. They are still looking for a first baseman, with Travis Ishikawa fighting for time with veteran Rich Aurilia (5 HRs), and third base is also a weak spot.
The outfield has speed with LF Randy Winn, who stole 15 bases and belted 14 homers, along with CF Aaron Rowand and CF Dave Roberts (31 steals). 2B Kevin Frandsen and even big 1B Daniel Ortmeier can run, as well. Power is in short supply, though. At least they are not as old, especially in the outfield. Still, all in all, this is a bad team that will struggle to score runs. The young pitching is nice, but won't be able to make up for this terrible offense. Last place in the NL West is likely -- again!
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