MLB NL East: 2008 Preview
|
NY Mets (88-74 in 2007)
With all the talent (and payroll) on this team, it's difficult to figure why they have been such flops. Last September took the cake, a collapse for the ages. A team talented enough to make it to the World Series, then didn't even make the playoffs in a shocking September choke-for-the-ages. They were second in batting average in the NL, fourth in runs, seventh in ERA (4.26), and tops in steals (200). High priced stars studded the roster like Pedro Martinez ($14.8-million), Carlos Beltran ($13.5-million), Carlos Delgado ($13.5-mill), Billy Wagner ($10.5-million), Moises Alou ($7.5-mill) and Tom Glavine. They went 5-12 and 1-6 down the stretch to lose the NL East pennant by one game.
But a dominant ace prevents losing streaks and the Mets got the biggest offseason prize, nabbing 2-time Cy Young lefty Johan Santana for 4 prospects: outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Kevin Mulvey, Philip Humber and Deolis Guerra. The 29-year old Santana won the Cy Young Award in 2004, after a 20-6, 2.61 ERA, 265-K season. Opponents hit just .182 off him! In 2005 he was 16-7 with 238 Ks in 231 innings, and in 2006 Santana had another monster season at 19-6, 2.77 ERA, with 245 strikeouts in 233 innings. Last summer he was 15-13 with a 3.33 ERA and 235 strikeouts. Over the last five seasons, he has 82 wins, a 2.92 ERA and 1,152 strikeouts, all major-league bests over that span.
He is a remarkable 50-17 with a 2.79 ERA in 83 second-half starts in his career. After last season's collapse, the Mets have to feel good about adding someone like that. He is the best pitcher in baseball, a true ace few teams have.
He makes the loss to Glavine an afterthought, plus everyone else returns, including a slew of talented young players. Ching, ching! The Mets certainly aren't shy about opening up their wallets to buy expensive free agents under free spending GM Omar Minaya. The Mets are the Yankees of the NL. 2005: Carlos Beltran and Pedro Martinez. 2006: Billy Wagner and Carlos Delgado. They took on the contract of Shawn Green in 2006 and add 40-year old LF Moises Alou ($7.4-million) last season. Fourth-year manager Willie Randolph delivered an NL East pennant in 2006 season but came up one game shy of the World Series before last year's disaster. With all the talent, this is the team to beat in the NL.
The 30-year old Beltran was a bust in his first season, hitting .267 with 16 HRs, but settled down the last two summers, with 41 and 33 home runs. Last season he had 23 steals and 112 RBI. 41-year LF Moises Alou hit .341 with 13 HRs, while 34-year old LF Marlon Anderson came over from LA and hit .295 in limited action. He will look for time with Endy Chavez and Ryan Church in outfield that's long in the tooth.
The guy who makes the offense go is 3B David Wright. Wright, age 25, hit .325 with 30 HRs, 34 steals and a .416 OBP. He's one of the best all-around players in the game. Second base should feature 32-year old Luis Castillo (.301), who stole 19 bases. The other gem is at shortstop with 24-year old Jose Reyes (.280, 12 triples, 12 HRs), who stole 78 bases. 35-year old 1B Carlos Delgado anchors first and hit 24 homers with 87 RBI despite a slow start. Role players include 38-year old Damion Easley (.280, 10 HRs) and Ruben Gotay. Catching is a weak spot with Ramon Castro and Brian Schneider. Still, this offense should be the best in the NL.
Age is the one concern with the starting pitching. 36-year old Pedro Martinez came back from shouler surgery to throw just 28 innings. He went 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA, fanning 32, so his stuff is still strong. He was off a 9-8 2006 season with a 4.48 ERA (the worst of his career) in only 23 starts. Lefty Tom Glavine is gone, so Pedro and 38-year old Orlando Hernandez (9-5, 3.72) are aging starters in the rotation.
At least there is some youth and depth, with 26-year old John Maine (15-10, 3.91 ERA, 191 IP) and 26-year old lefty Oliver Perez (15-10, 3.56, 177 IP, 174 Ks). Maine is a product of their farm system while Perez was a great pickup after going 3-13 in 2006, finding his curveball and control. Jorge Sosa turns 31 the first month of the season and was decent, with a 9-8 record and a 4.47 ERA in 112 innings. 6-foot-7 Mike Pelfrey can also start, but was just 3-8 with a 5.57 ERA. A foursome of Santana, Maine, Pedro, and Perez is the best rotation in the NL.
29-year old Aaron Heilman (86 IP, 7-7, 3.03 ERA) was a potential starter last season, but pitched well in middle relief. Pedro Feliciano (3.09 ERA), lefty Scott Schoeneweis and Joe Smith (3.42) round out a very good middle relief staff. 36-year old Billy Wagner continues to get it done in the 9th, and he delivered with 34 saves and a 2.63 ERA. The Mets are the favorite to win the NL East and, with the addition of Santana, should get to the World Series. Of course, they should have made it last season, too.
Phillies (89-73 in 2007)
The Phillies have been competitive, winning 86, 86, 88, 85 and 89 games the last five seasons. Last year they finally busted the door in and won the NL East -- by a whisker, on the last day of the season. And that was only because the Mets choked. Still, this team has been competitive for 5 straight seasons, with a knack for developing offensive players. In fact, the 2007 Phillies were tops in the NL in runs scored, first in slugging and second in stolen bases.
The rotation is fortunate to have a young ace in 24-year old Cole Hamels (15-5, 181 innings, 3.39 ERA). He allowed just 163 hits in 183 innings with 177 Ks, led by an outstanding changeup. Throw in 23-year old righty Kyle Kendrick (10-4, 3.87 ERA) and this team has two talented young arms to build around. The rest of this staff is very different: Aging veterans! 45-year old lefty Jamie Moyer throws off-speed stuff that is not really built for this small park, but he impressed with a 14-12 record and 199 innings (5.01 ERA).
30-year old Adam Eaton (10-10) may have won 10 games but had an ERA of 6.29! He's still penciled in as a starter despite below average stuff. Chad Durbin and J.D. Durbin can start or relieve, with J.D. starting 10 games last summer. They have to find arms to step in to fill the starts of departed Jon Lieber, Freddie Garcia and Kyle Lohse. Brett Myers was mainly a closer last season, fanning 83 in 68 innings, though he also started 3 games. In 2006 as a starter he went 12-7, with a 3.91 ERA and 189 Ks. They also have 27-year old Ryan Madson (3.05 ERA in 56 innings), who was terrific in middle relief, but as a starter in 2006 was 11-9 in 134 IP, with a 5.69 ERA. At least there are good starting options.
This is an easy home run park that is tough on pitchers, so wins and innings are more important than ERA. 40-year old Tom Gordon and his curveball are still rolling along, saving 40 games the last two years. He had ERAs of 3.34 and 4.73 in 2006 and '07. At $4.5-million, he's a bargain as a closer. Clay Condrey (0-5) is a below average middle reliever, but lefty J.C. Romero (1.24 ERA) was sensational after being a bust in Boston, allowing 15 hits in 36 innings. It's hard to believe he can do that again, however. And speaking of closers, Brad Lidge comes over from Houston where he was pretty much run out of town. Lidge went 5-3 with 19 saves and a 3.36 ERA in 66 games with the Astros last season. His stuff can be great, but he has been erratic with a possible loss of confidence. It's not easy to pitch, or ressurect a career, in this park.
While the pitching has holes, the offense does not, No. 1 in runs scored in 2007.
The lineup remains intact and that's great because the Phillies are loaded with hitters in their prime. SS Jimmy Rollins is terrific atop the order, with 41, 36 and 41 steals the last three seasons. He had 716 at bats in 2007, with 30 homers and 94 RBI. There's more speed with RF Shane Victorino (.281, 12 HRs) who stole 37 bases while stepping in for departed Bob Abreu. CF So Taguchi comes over from the Cardinals, where he hit .290 with a .350 OBP, a fine defensive player.
Jim Thome is long gone, but who cares? The Phillies have 28-year old 1B Ryan Howard, who exploded with an MVP season in 2006 with 58 HRs, a .313 average and 149 RBI. Talk about a bat to build your lineup around! Last summer he belted 47 homers and 136 RBI. Throw in LF Pat Burrell (30 HRs, 97 RBI), 29-year old 2B Chase Utley (22 HRs, .332 average, 103 RBI, 48 doubles, 9 steals), 3B Wes Helms and there is loads of power. Burrell has led the majors in taking called third strikes in two of the last three seasons (68 times in 2005 and 63 in 2006) while frequently swinging at pitches far out of the strike zone. This is still a terrific offensive team.
They also picked up 33-year old LF Geoff Jenkins, who hit 21 homers with 64 RBI with the Brewers. The bottom line is that Philadelphia can score plenty of runs, play good defense and has an above average bullpen. The rotation has a pair of kids that need to anchor the stuff, but Hamels appears to be a young ace. The Phillies could get back to the postseason, but it will have to come as a Wild Card with the Mets loaded in the NL East.
Atlanta Braves (84-78 in 2007)
The incredible run by the Braves finally ended in 2006, slipping from 90 wins and another division title (14 in a row) to a losing season in 2006. But they were good enough to win 84 games last summer for third place in the NL East. They lose CF Andruw Jones but gain longtime lefty Tom Glavine after his stint with the Mets. This team has balance under Bobby Cox, ranked 4th in batting, third in runs and third in team ERA (4.11).
The rotation features a trio of veterans. 40-year old RHP John Smoltz moved back into the rotation the last three seasons after three-plus seasons as the closer and has been outstanding, at 14-7 with a 3.06 ERA in 2005 (33 starts and 229 innings), 16-9 with a 3.49 ERA in 35 starts and 232 innings in 2006, and 14-8 with a 3.11 ERA in 205 innings last summer. Talk about a workhorse! RHP Tim Hudson turns 33 in July but is off a fine season at 16-10 in 224 innings with a 3.33 ERA.
42-year old Tom Glavine has tailed off of late, so he's hoping a return to the freindly confines of Atlanta can help him, where he won a World Series in 1995. Glavine was 13-8 with a 4.45 ERA throwing 200 innings last year. Opponents hit .281 off him, however, and that was in pitcher-friendly Shea Stadium. 35-year old LHP Mike Hampton is always on this roster, it seems, but never healthy enough to contribute. There is some youth in the rotation with 26-year old lefty Chuck James (11-10, 4.24 ERA) and Buddy Carlyle (8-7, 5.21), though both have average stuff.
The Braves had a coup in nabbing 28-year old Rafael Soriano from the Mariners a year ago. His stuff is outstanding, with a 2.25 ERA allowing 44 hits in 60 innings and 65 Ks in 2006. Last summer he had a 3.00 ERA allowing just 47 hits in 72 innings! The Braves plan to make Soriano their closer this season. He went 3-3 with a 3.00 ERA and nine saves in a career-high 71 appearances last year, holding opponents to a .181 batting average. Backing him up in middle relief will be 29-year old lefty Mike Gonzalez (1.59 ERA), Manny Acosta (2.28 ERA) and Peter Moylan. This pen looks very good.
The outfield has a new look with longtime CF Andruw Jones gone. 32-year old CF Mark Kotsay comes over from the A's, where he hit .214 in just 206 bats because of back problems. He's a strong all around player when healthy, especially defensively, which is necessary in this big park. 24-year old RF Jeff Francoeur has belted 14, 29 and 19 HRs the last three seasons, and had 105 RBI last summer. LFs Matt Diaz, Brandon Jones and Josh Anderson will vie for the left field spot. Defense is key in the Turner Field outfield, and this team speed and defense is very strong.
To replace Jones' bat the Braves traded for Texas first baseman Mark Teixeira last suummer, and he finished with 30 homers and 105 RBI, plus a .400 OBP. He agreed to a $12.5 million, one-year contract with the Braves. Teixeira, who added power to the Braves lineup after being acquired from Texas just before the trade deadline, received a big raise over the $9 million he made last season. He batted .317 with 17 homers and 56 RBIs with Atlanta. Overall, Teixeira had 30 homers, 105 RBIs and hit .306.
3B Chipper Jones is 35 and still has pop, finishing with 29 HRs, 102 RBI and a .337 average. Omar Infante and Kelly Johnson will battle for time at second, while they turn the shortstop position to Yunel Escobar. Escobar, 25, hit .326 in 319 at bats, making veteran SS Edgar Renteria expendable. Cather Brian McCann, age 23, impressed with 18 homers and 92 RBI. This is a fine all around infield despite the many changes. The Braves could make a postseason run, if the VERY veteran Big 3 atop the rotation don't wear down.
Florida Marlins (78-84 in 2007)
Yes, the Marlins have no stadium, little revenue, and often clean house letting talented free agent players leave, which happened again this winter. They bring in free agent outfielder Luis Gonzalez, but trade away Dontrelle Willis and Migeul Cabrera. And they finished last in the NL East with those stars. So let's update the list of talented players they've lost the last three years: Carlos Delgado, Josh Beckett, Alex Gonzalez, Luis Castillo, Paul LoDuca, Mike Lowell, A.J. Burnett, CF Juan Pierre, Todd Jones, Guillermo Mota, Dontrelle Willis and Migeul Cabrera. So this is what first-year manager Fredi Gonzalez steps into.
Some good news is that the Marlins and two local governments have ironed out the financial details of a $515 million proposal that would give the team a new 37,000-seat ballpark on the site of the Orange Bowl.
The Marlins would contribute $155 million for the stadium, which is projected to open in 2011. Until then, they have to survive, and they are doing it on the cheap.
The Marlins add 6-foot-9 left-hander Mark Hendrickson, one of the tallest players in the majors. He signed a one-year contract and is being tabbed for a rotation spot even though he also has relieved in the past. Hendrickson, 33, went 4-8 with a 5.21 ERA with the Dodgers last season. He appeared in 39 games, 24 in relief. During his career, Hendrickson is 43-55 with a 5.01 ERA while playing for the Dodgers, Tampa Bay and the Blue Jays. The cost-conscious Marlins signed Hendrickson for $1.5 million. Hendrickson could give the Marlins three left-handers in their five-man rotation, with southpaws 24-year old Scott Olsen (10-15, 5.81 ERA, 176 IP) and Andrew Miller (5-5, 5.63 ERA) expected to nail down spots. The 6-foot-6, 22-year old Miller was acquired from the Tigers, a top pitching prospect.
Two years ago Olsen went 12-10 and allowed just 160 hits in 180 innings, fanning 166. Opponents hit just .239 off him. Youngsters Sergio Mitre and Anibal Sanchez are penciled into the rotation as starters, but are coming off injuries and won't be ready for the start of the season.
Sanchez just turned 24 and had a terrific debut season in 2006, going 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA throwing a no-hitter. He's the pitcher they got from the Red Sox for Josh Beckett. 6-foot-7 Josh Johnson was a budding young ace before hurting his elbow a year ago. The 24-year old Johnson is 6-foot-7 and went 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 157 innings in 2006 but is on the DL after struggling with injureis in 2007. 25-year old Ricky Nolasco went 11-11 with a 4.82 ERA two years ago, but threw just 21 innings last season with a 5.48 ERA. Plenty of young arms, but too much inexperience and too many question marks.
Closer Kevin Gregg (32 saves, 3.54 ERA) was terrific and signed a one-year deal for $2.5 million, making Gregg the highest-paid Marlin. Gregg managed to finish with 32 saves last season even though he didn't assume the closer's role on a permanent basis until mid-May.
The Marlins also add left-handed pitcher Randy Williams. The bullpen is loaded with young live arms, mostly no names. Carlos Martinez (1.74 ERA) is a 24-year-old from Caracas, Venezuela, with a 96 mph fastball, a split fastball, slider and two-seam faster. He is raw, though, pitching just 2.2 innings last season in the big leagues.
Left-hander Renyel Pinto is very good, with a 3.68 ERA in 58 innings, allowing just 45 hits and fanning 56. Jacob Marceaux, a 24-year-old right-hander and the club's third first-round pick three years ago, may find work as a reliever. They like 24-year old Taylor Tankersley (3.99) as a closer or set up man. He had a 2.85 ERA in 2006 in 41 innings, allowing just 33 hits and 46 Ks, and last season went 6-1 with 49 Ks in 42 innings. Lots of young arms that can bring the heat!
The offense stole 105 bases last season and ranked 6th in the NL in runs scored, but loses Cabrera. The offense begins with 24-year old SS Hanley Ramirez, who also came over in the Josh Beckett deal two years ago. He was Boston's top prospect for two years and exploded offensively in 2006, with 17 HRs, a .292 average, 51 steals and 46 doubles! Last season he had 51 steals 29 homers, 48 doubls and hit .332. He's a keeper, though he still needs work defensively, but what a multi-skilled talent.
2B Dan Uggla exploded with 27 home runs and 90 RBI two years ago, and last season hit 31 bombs with 88 RBI, providing offense from a position that's tough to get it from. 3B Dallas McPherson comes over from the Angels, a talent who hit 7 homers in 115 at bats last season. Health has been his biggest problem, though. 3B Jose Castillo and 1B Jose Castillo also could crack the infield, though they don't provide much offense.
There is a glut of openings in the outfield, with veteran CF Alfredo Amezaga (.263, 13 steals) battling young CFs Brett Carroll and Alejandro De Aza for time. 40-year old LF Luis Gonzalez hit 15 homers with the Dodgers and is the only veteran on the team, while RF Jeremy Hermida (18 homers, .296) is a decent young right fielder who belted 32 doubles. The 2003 Marlins had a ton of young arms and won the World Series, but this team doesn't bear any resemblance to that bunch -- either offensively or on the mound. They will battle Washington for last place.
Washington Nationals (73-89 in 2007)
Bring back the Senators! Well, they did the next best thing, moving from Montreal/San Juan Expos, to the Washington Nationals three years ago. They also spent a few bucks and improved to win 81 games, but then cut costs and slipped the last two seasons to 71 and 73 wins. This team still has a lot of problems, ranking 16th in the NL in runs scored, 13th in batting and 10th in ERA (4.58). There also has been a change in philosophy.
Last season Owner Theodore Lerner said the Nationals will not adjust to what he considers to be outlandish spending by his fellow owners in the free agent market. "What concerns us most is the free agency signings which have occurred," Lerner said. "It could take baseball out of control." They lost star Alfonso Soriano to the Cubs for $136 million over eight years. In the short term, that means the Nationals have been cutting payroll -- and it shows. The loss of Soriano was significant, as he hit 46 home runs and stole 17 bases in 2006. The Nationals have more of a punch-and-Judy offense.
2B Felipe Lopez (.245, 9 HRs, 24 steals) is their top base stealer, but he has a poor .308 OBP. Shortstops Felipe Lopez and SS Cristian Guzman are not strong offense or defense players and will battle for time. 23-year old 3B Ryan Zimmerman provides the sock on offense after he hit 24 home runs and 91 RBI while batting .266. He and 1B Nick Johnson can be a strong duo. Johnson's 2007 season was a washout because of injuries, but back in 2006 he hit 23 HRs with 100 runs and 46 doubles for Washington, and is a fine defensive player. 34-year old Aaron Boone is also in the mix.
They will have to find room for 1B/LF Dmitri Young, who led the team with a .320 average, plus 13 homers and 74 RBI. The outfield traded for LF Wily Mo Pena last summer and he hit 8 homers in 133 at bats, with a .293 average. RF Lastings Milledge comes over from the Mets where he hit .272 with 7 homers in 184 at bats. Like Pena, he has offensive potential but is a brutal defensive player. They have CF Ryan Langerhans, Justin Maxwell and 23-year old Elijah Dukes will battle for time in center, and they have backup outfielder RF Austin Kearns. Catcher Johnny Estrada and the Nationals agreed to a $1.25 million, one-year contract, giving Washington an experienced catcher to back up Paul Lo Duca, who is recovering from knee surgery.
The 31-year-old Estrada is coming off knee and elbow operations. Estrada, a switch-hitter, played for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2007, batting .278 with 10 homers and 54 RBIs and drawing only 12 walks as part of a .296 on-base percentage. He threw out just six of 79 base stealers! An All-Star in 2004 with Atlanta, Estrada is a .280 career hitter with 42 homers and 281 RBIs in 589 games over seven major-league seasons. Lo Duca, who signed a $5 million, one-year deal with Washington as a free agent, had arthroscopic surgery on his left knee last month. The Nationals also have catcher Jesus Flores, who never played above Double-A before last season. The Nationals traded last season's starting catcher, Brian Schneider, to the Mets in December.
The pitching staff also has problems, lacking depth and talent. They went to the youth movement last season and came away with starters Shawn Hill, Jason Bergmann and Matt Chico. Hill, 26, started 16 games and went 4-5 with a 3.42 ERA in 97 innings. Bergmann is 26 and went 6-6 with a 4.45 ERA in 115 innings, while Chico (24) threw 167 innings and had a 4.63 ERA. He gave up 26 homers and 74 walks in 167 innings, both poor ratios.
John Patterson has great stuff but battled injuries the last two seasons. He won just a single game (40 innings) in 2006 and went 1-5 with a 7.47 ERA last summer. In 2005 he was (9-7) and had a strong season, with 185 Ks in 198 innings. The staff depends completely on the health of Patterson because there is little beyond him. Retreads and castoffs Tim Redding (3.64 ERA) and Jon Rauch will get time to start because there is no one else.
The bullpen has 22-year old former NY Yankee Tyler Clippard, former flamethrower Jesus Colome (whose now 30) and closer Chad Cordero. Cordero saved 37 games with a 3.36 ERA in 75 innings. He's terrific, but you have to wonder if he will be July trade bait to restock the farm system. The middle relief is thin, as is the starting pitching. They should be one of the worst teams in baseball.
|
|
