A Call to the Pen
Starting pitchers in baseball get much of the attention (and money) thrown their way. The average starter is asked to go 6-7 innings, while aces are expected to give 7-8 quality innings. Many games are decided in the last three innings, however, making relief pitchers an extremely important, and often overlooked, factor.
The use of effective relievers is nothing new. Specialized closers were around in the 1960s, with terrific relievers like Dick Radatz, John Hiller, Luis Arroyo and knuckeballer Hoyt Wilhelm. During the early 1970s, the Oakland Athletics had a deep bullpen with Rollie Fingers, Dave Hamilton and Darold Knowles. That group helped win three straight World Series from 1972-74. Then came the Big Red Machine, and Sparky Anderson had lights-out relievers in Will McEnaney and Rawley Eastwick. That has evolved into a situation where today managers league-wide use a variety of closers, middlemen and lefty/righty specialists.
It's important from a betting perspective to examine which teams have solid bullpen depth and which ones don't. The Rockies had a lot of effective relievers last season, which was a huge key in their shocking late 21-1 run that led to the NL pennant. This season has been a completely different story, with the bullpen struggling badly. Colorado is second worst in the NL in team ERA, just like the old days.
A year ago, the Cubs had a string of blown saves early in the season. The Cubs started 2-10 in one run games while the bullpen was meltdown city, going 3-11. The bullpen has been a significant upgrade on the first-place Cubbies this season, with middlemen Jon Lieber, Carlos Marmol, Mike Wuertz and closer Kerry Wood. Wood has been effective and has already pitched more innings than he did in all of 2007.
In 2007 the eventual champion Red Sox had outstanding starting pitching, with Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield going 6-7 innings almost every night. That took a load off the bullpen, which was outstanding while being used only sparingly. That's why starters who can stay healthy and eat innings have value beyond their numbers, as they can have a domino effect on the relief staff.
The opposite has taken place the last two years with the struggling Yankees, who've gotten little quality starting pitching and the bullpen has been overused. After Chien-Ming Wang's 7 innings per start, Andy Pettitte is averaging under 6 innings, Mike Mussina is averaging under 5, while Ian Kennedy (4), Phil Hughes (3.5) and Kei Igawa (3) have been shelled.
The teams with the most saves? The Angels and Blue Jays. After a rough start, the Jays have been on a roll, winning 11 of 14 games (3 times as a dog). Meanwhile, the first-place Angels have also been rolling behind a deep pen, winning 10 of 15. During that stretch the Angels went 13-1 under the total. Over a 9-game stretch, the relievers didn't allow a run in 17 innings. "We're driven by what our rotation and bullpen can do, and right now, they're performing the way we expected them to," Manager Mike Scioscia said last week.
That's something to keep an eye on with the surprising Marlins: Their pitching is mediocre, young and in the middle of the pack in the NL in team ERA. The Marlins are in the middle of a 10-game road trip and manager Fredi Gonzalez is going with a four-man rotation through the first two series of the trip. Rookie starter Burke Badenhop, who has struggled, is the odd man out, now in the bullpen along with reliever Joe Nelson, called up from Triple-A Albuquerque.
The surprising Cardinals have surged with a pitching staff ranked 4th in the NL partly because of a bullpen foursome of Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan, Randy Flores and Jason Isringhausen. Only Isringhausen is a big name. The Yankees should take note, as they've spent too much money on high profile players in recent years and too little attention to the pen, which is a huge part of baseball success today, on the field and at the betting window.
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