NBA Playoffs: Keep Up on Adjustments
Playoff basketball pits the best against the best, which gets even more heated the deeper we get toward June. The star players and the better teams usually find themselves advancing. One aspect that all seeds, hot and cold, do this time of year is to make coaching adjustments and strategic shifts. Handicappers need to keep up on these adjustments as it can influence the side and total of the next contest.
Coaches earn their money this time of the season, or hurt their team by doing nothing, or the wrong thing. The Celtics got torched by Atlanta's Joe Johnson in the first round, when he scored 20 fourth quarter points in Game 4, a 97-92 Hawks upset. Determined not to let Johnson run wild on them, the Celtics sent waves of double-teams attacking him the rest of the series. Boston went 2-1 SU/ATS after that Game 4 collapse.
The Pistons faced something similar in their first round with Philadelphia. The 76ers surprised the Pistons by playing man to man early in the series. Many teams double Rasheed Wallace, but Sixer coach Maurice Cheeks didn't want to leave Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton uncovered. Philadelphia went up two games to one before the Pistons adjusted.
Playoff history is littered with coaching moves than can influence a series, in addition to the sides and totals of games. The Cleveland Cavaliers made a midseason trade partly to jumpstart an anemic offense, bringing in more scoring options alongside LeBron James, such as Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak and Joe Smith. They were more of an uptempo team for a while, but as the playoffs approached, coach Mike Brown began emphasizing defense, the kind of slow pace that helped the Cavs win the East a year ago.
The Cavaliers carried a 9-3 under the total run into Game 1 at Boston last week, then both teams played a slow, crushing defensive style in a 76-72 Boston win. The game went under the total by 33 points! Not wanting to get torched by James, as they had with Joe Johnson, the Celtics put long-armed defensive specialist James Posey on King James. LeBron was awful, 2-of-18 from the field with 12 points and 10 turnovers.
It's important for sports bettors to watch as many games as possible and carefully read up on the games the next day. Such things as injuries and strategic adjustments can be revealing. A year ago the first round series between the Mavs and the Warriors was a fascinating chess match. The Warriors went small-ball under coach Don Nelson in Game 1 and Dallas coach Avery Johnson matched Nellie with a small, quick lineup of his own. The countermove failed, as Golden State's Baron Davis and Jason Richardson were better at small ball, even on defense, and the Warriors won 97-85 as a 10-point dog.
In Game 2, Johnson countered by going with his big men, the center tandem of Erick Dampier and DeSagana Diop, and the result as a +7 edge on the glass and a 112-99 win. By Game 4, Johnson was using his third starting lineup of the series, but he couldn't curtail the fired up Warriors' home court edge as they fell behind 3-1. The Warriors pulled the upset in six games and coaching strategy played a significant role.
You may recall during the 2006 playoffs between the Suns and Lakers. During the regular season meetings, Kobe Bryant had some of his most explosive games against Phoenix, yet the result was almost always the same: The Suns won with an avalanche of points.
So, Laker coach Phil Jackson made several strategic adjustments for the playoff series: Instead of letting Kobe do all the shooting, he asked Bryant to distribute the basketball more, asking others to look for their shot. He also recognized that the Suns had a smallish frontcourt, so LA pounded the ball down low often. LA shot for a high percentage and dominated the points in the paint while taking a 3-1 series lead before the Suns adjusted. The first four games went under the total as the Lakers controlled the tempo.
However, starting in Game 5, the Suns changed strategy by releasing players early on defense in an attempt to push the tempo more. They were able to find more looks on the perimeter, too. While mounting their comeback against the Lakers, the Suns shot 45% and 47.6% in the final two games from three-point land, after shooting 33%, 43.5% and 35% in Games 2, 3 and 4 (all losses).
The Lakers didn't have the talent or depth to counterpunch once the Suns adjusted, so the better team ended up winning. Point, counterpoint, checkmate! Notice that the Suns went 3-0 over the total once those adjustments were instituted. A similar thing happened recently when the 76ers fell short against the Pistons: Strategic moves took them only so far. If you just read the box scores or catch the final score on TV, you might not understand all the complex moves taking place. The fact is, key strategic adjustments by the coaches can influence the series, sides and totals.
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