Baseball Hot and Cold Starts
More than any other sport, baseball is a game of patience. It's not how you start, but where you finish, and with a 162-game regular season, there is a LOT of baseball left. Did your team get off to a bad start? Well don't panic. There is plenty of time to make adjustments and turn things around. Did your team get off to a hot start? Well don't start making World Series reservations just yet.
One year ago the eventual NL Champion Rockies were 10-16, last place in the NL West at the end of April, and 45-46 at the All Star break. Remember that two years ago the eventual champion Cardinals didn't light the world on fire during a 17-12 start. Just three years ago the Houston Astros started 8-13 and eventually stood at 15-30! They ended up winning the 2005 NL pennant. In 2003, the Florida Marlins started 19-29 and ended up winning the World Series. In 2002, the Angels started 6-14 and wound up winning their first World Series.
So don't panic if your team is stumbling, and don't start thinking about printing playoff tickets if your team started 13-7, like the 2008 Cardinals and Brewers. Some other surprises from the start of this season have been the low budget Marlins sitting in first place, the surprising White Sox and the Orioles. The biggest surprise has been the stumbling Tigers starting 2-10. Don't forget that one year ago the Phillies started 1-7 and ended up as NL East champs.
Oakland GM Billy Beane once said you spend the first third of the season seeing what you have and evaluating your team. The middle third trying to acquire pieces to fill weak spots, and the final third sitting back and watching the team make a run at the postseason -- or not. We have just started the first third of the season and there's a long way to go. General managers are in the process of evaluating what they have.
In the same way GMs need patience when analyzing baseball, so do handicappers. The Tigers quietly began to turn things around after that dreadful start, winning 6 of 9 games, even winning twice as a dog. Arizona has a young offense and a great pitching staff. The biggest concern coming into the season was if they could manufacture some runs. It was no surprise they lead the NL in pitching, but it is a surprise they are second in runs scored.
History is the best teacher. Look back just three years ago for some comparisons. In April of 2005, the Orioles and Blue Jays were atop the American League East with the Red Sox and Yankees looking up at them. In the National League, the Dodgers had a blistering 11-2 start while no other team in the NL West had a winning record. When the season ended, a very different picture emerged. LA was 71-91 in fourth place, a bevy of injuries and a lack of hitting derailed their once promising season. Meanwhile, in April in the NL Central the eventual NL champion Astros were looking up at the Cubs, Reds and Cardinals.
Surprises will emerge over a long season and offer smart bettors good value for their wagering dollar, even with individual players. After going 17-8 and 16-8 from 2004-05, Cardinals lefty Mark Mulder was expected to have a strong 2006 season. He was installed as a favorite often on such a good team, yet struggled badly with a 6-7 record and a 7.14 ERA. Arm trouble eventually put him on the shelf. Pitchers are more susceptible to injuries than any other professional athletes and remember that betting numbers are made based on current and past performance. It can take a while before oddsmakers catch on to a struggling or injured pitcher.
Other times, kid pitchers can come up from the minors and dazzle, such as we're seeing with Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto of the Reds, and Tim Lincecum of the Giants. We saw this last year with Fausto Carmona of the Indians. You must be careful with teams and players, as they can change from season to season.
Cleveland hopes they have found another one in lefty Cliff Lee, who is off to a hot start.
Sustaining a surprise start requires talent, depth, line-up balance and good health. A crop of talented young players from the farm system can be a huge plus. In 2003, the Florida Marlins road a slew of hot young arms, Dontrelle Willis, Josh Beckett, Brad Penny, Carl Pavano, to a World Series title. Last year the Red Sox did it with newcomers Okajimi, Matzusaka, Pedroia and Ellsbury. Remember in 2003 the Royals started 17-4, the Mariners started 40-18 and the Diamondbacks were 52-42 at the All Star break. None made the playoffs. Those examples give hope to those teams that are off to struggling starts, and should provide caution to teams that are in first place. After all, it's only April!
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