Houston, We Have Liftoff!
18 in a row! There's no better example of backing a hot roller at the dice table than the Houston Rockets. Some ascribe to the theory that a hot roller is going to cool off soon so they play against them. The more successful tried and true method is to ride the hot streak until they go cold and THEN jump off.
The Rockets couldn't be hotter, winning 18 in a row. After they had won 8 in a row, the contrarian would have reasoned, "They're overvalued. I'm playing against them." That reasoning would have failed as they won another 4 in a row. Then when Yao Ming got hurt, they would have thought, "Aha! NOW'S the time to bet against the Rockets." Then Houston ripped off 6 more wins, both straight up and against the spread, minus their star center.
This is also a great example of how teams can pull together after a key injury and continue to play well. I recall the 1980 NBA Finals when Kareem Abdul-Jabbar twisted an ankle in Game 5 and sat out Game 6. Everyone figured the Lakers were dead, but before the game wise old sage Bill Russell commented, "Oh, no. Many times when a star player goes out, role players off the bench can step in and the team won't miss a beat. In the long term, missing a star player can be a problem, but in the short term, a good team can survive."
Which is just what is happening with the Rockets. They've been motivated to keep this hot streak going. They are 27-3 since Jan. 4.One reason is the play of 27-year old Luis Scola, the NBA's oldest rookie. Scola is averaging 12.4 points and 6.4 rebounds and shooting 59 percent in 18 games as a starter. He's even better, 14.4 and 7.4, since Yao Ming was injured. Scola was a two-time Most Valuable Player in the Spanish league and was the leading scorer on Argentina's gold medal 2004 Olympic team.
In addition, Rafer Alston and Shane Battier are having the best years of their career, while Tracy McGrady is healthy and shining on and off the court. Oh, and let's not overlook the importance of defense. Houston is second in the NBA (tops in the West) allowing 43% shooting by opponents and fourth overall allowing 92 ppg. First-year coach Rick Adelman was brought in to upgrade the offense. He has, as they average 97.5 points, but most impressive has been their continually strong 'D'. And that's needed even more with Ming on the shelf.
Simply put, the Rockets are a team that doesn't rely on one star to carry them. With Ming out, they can fall back on McGrady, talented role players like Battier and the rookie Scala, plus the best defense in the West.
When they played New Orleans on Saturday, my analysis on the game was, "Combine total confidence with major motivation and you've got a dangerous combo. That's the Houston Rockets these days. They're playing with a major chip on their shoulder, and they're obviously on a phenomenal run. New Orleans had to play Friday at home and now must hit the road to face this rested and red hot host. I'll get aboard the Houston express for this one." The Rockets won and covered again, 106-96. It didn't concern me that Houston had covered its previous nine games. I've been in this business a long time, and it's smarter to jump aboard the freight train than to try and jump in front of it!
Contrast that team with one like the LA Clippers. LA has also had injuries, but unlike the Rockets, they are a disinterested, dysfunctional bunch heading to the draft lottery instead of the playoffs. After losing to the Lakers by 39 points, Corey Maggette said, "We don't have a lot of guys playing the right way." Doesn't sound like team-harmony, does it? "Any time you get dusted pretty badly, then the best course of action is to go and play again," Coach Mike Dunleavy said. After which they lost at home to miserable Minnesota as a 4-point favorite.
"It's going to be easier for us to have a chance at winning," Chris Kaman said of playing some bad teams. "It doesn't mean we'll win, though." Doesn't sound like team a team with confidence, does it? The Clippers just concluded a stretch playing 11 of 12 games in their own city, yet they are on a 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS run.
Again, motivation and interest are so important this time of the basketball season. Don't try and guess WHEN a team like the Rockets is going to cool off, and be cautious about wagering on a team like the Clippers with so many problems they have on and off the court. Riding with the hot team and going against the cold team is smarter than trying to play the contrarian.
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