NBA Second Half Stretch Run
The NBA took the weekend off for the All Star break, but now it's back to action. The second half stretch run is one of the best times of the year for sports handicappers. Some teams are completely out of it and will pack it in, allowing for great go-against spots. Other "bubble" teams will attempt to make a second half push to try and squeeze into the playoffs, while still others are the elite teams jockeying for the top seeds in each conference. Here's a look at some of those top dogs that are thinking NBA title.
Pistons: The old warriors in Detroit continue to be one of the beasts of the East since their surprise title in 2004. Depth and experience are their hallmarks. This backcourt is still deadly behind Richard Hamilton (18.3 ppg) and Chauncey Billups (17.3 ppg), leading Detroit in scoring. Both are clutch and Hamilton's height creates mismatches.
There are rebounders and role players all over with Tayshaun Prince, Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess. McDyess had come off the bench in recent years, but the experiment to have him start this season has worked well, averaging 9 points and 6 boards. Flip Saunders was brought in to run a more uptempo offense, but note that Detroit still plays defense, allowing 43% shooting by opponents, second best in the NBA. The Pistons play great defense at home, but allow 7 more points per game on the road, where they are 15-10 over the total.
Celtics: This was the makeover team of the century, going from perennial lottery team to powerhouse overnight. GM Danny Ainge essentially changed the Green from a one-star team (Paul Pierce) to three stars with the additions of Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett. Garnett's enthusiasm and work ethic have impressed everyone. Reports are he even loves practice! Most impressive is that the Celtics went from being a poor defensive team for several years under Doc Rivers to the best. Boston allows 42% shooting and 89 points per game, both tops in the league. That's why they are 18-5 SU, 16-7 ATS on the road. The Celtics begin the second half of the season on a long West Coast swing and expect Garnett to be back healthy. Another Pistons/Celtics Eastern Finals, like the 1980s, is in the cards.
Hornets: Where did these guys come from? New Orleans has the most explosive guard the NBA has season in a long time in Chris Paul, averaging 20.5 points and 10.9 assists. But he's not alone. They have a pair of kids playing well on the boards in 6-9 David West (19.8 ppg, 9.2 rpg) and 7-1 Tyson Chandler (12.5 rpg), plus veteran long range shooter Peja Stojakovic, who has been healthy enough to start 46 games. A remarkable 19-7 SU, 16-7 ATS road record shows this young team is no fluke.
Mavericks: It's tough to figure out who's running the Mavs. Jason Kidd arrives to put them over the top....then the trade is dead....and now it's back on! Seems like the Mavs are panicking after hearing Shaq was heading West. Word is that they are down on Devin Harris, a young guy with talent and speed, but suspect basketball knowledge. So bringing in a soon-to-be-35 year old Kidd is going to put them over the top? OK, but they already had a brilliant playmaker a few years ago in Steve Nash and defended the move to let him go. Who wouldn't want the talent on this team? They dominated the regular season a year ago, and two years ago make the NBA Finals with a super-talented young team. Now it seems as though they are panicking. Perhaps the most revealing stat regarding the Mavs is a poor 12-15 SU, 10-16 ATS road record.
Suns: He's here! The most expensive role player in NBA history, that is. The trade for Shaq is fascinating, changing the makeup of a finesse, run-and-gun team to one that can crash the boards with a monster rebounder, when needed. Come playoff time, they will need someone like that, especially after recent playoff losses to the rugged Spurs. They are gambling that Shaq has just enough left in the tank to help them win a title, making the cost of Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks reasonable. Awful Minnesota slowed the pace down and went 2-0 SU/ATS against Phoenix this season! So the Suns made the move in the event playoff teams like San Antonio decide to slow it down. Note that the Suns are 1-2 SU/1-1-1 ATS as a dog, and 3-0 under the total in those games as defense and slow tempo was the difference.
Spurs: Think the Spurs are already gearing up for the playoffs? San Antonio is currently on a 12-4 run under the total. They are 30-18 under the total overall. Despite playing .500 ball on the road, they have been hiding under the radar much of the season, trying to get healthy. Yet, they are still a force to be reckoned with. Asked last week about Shaq going to Phoenix because he wants a fifth ring, Duncan snapped, "To heck with him. I want that fifth ring."
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