Super Bowl Countdown!
In the world of eleven to ten, there's nothing quite like Super Bowl week. In this case, it's two weeks, as the Patriots and Giants have two weeks to prepare for the Big Game. It's also one of the most creative weeks of the sports betting season. While there's only one game left on the football calendar, there are still ample opportunities for betting on the Super Bowl. There will be hundreds of creative props by various oddsmakers in Las Vegas.
For example, you can bet on the exact score of the game by each team. Last season, if you bet on Chicago return specialist Devin Hester to score the first touchdown of the game, you would have cashed a 25-to-1 prop ticket after he returned the opening kickoff 92 yards. 14 seconds in cashing a 25-to-1 ticket is the best way to watch a Super Bowl!
You could even wager that there would be no touchdowns scored at 50-to-1. Of course, that has never happened as we head to Super Bowl 42 next week. There also has never been overtime.
There will be "over/under" lines offered on how many touchdown passes a quarterback might throw, the first team to turn the ball over, and even the coin flip. There will be creative wagers offered such as how many receiving yards one player might get matched up against the number of points the NBA's Dirk Nowitzki will score against Detroit in a basketball battle before the Super Sunday kickoff.
The Super Bowl brings out the best in the creative minds of oddsmakers. Smart bettors will search through all the props, totals and side bets offered in an attempt to find an edge and add to their bankrolls. When examining Super Bowl totals, weather is not as important an issue as in other January playoff games as Super Sunday is always played indoors or at warm weather sites. This season the game will be in Glendale, Arizona. Since Super Bowl X in 1976 between the Steelers and Cowboys, there have been 19 "overs" and 13 "unders," with the last three going under.
Why so many "overs?" One factor is that coaches with a lead are less likely to sit on the ball in the second half in a Super Bowl. If a team is up 17-0 at the half of a December game, for example, a coach might be inclined to go conservative, run the clock and avoid injuries. In the postseason, it's the final game of the season and no lead is safe. No coach wants to play super-conservative and be remembered as the guy who blew a 17-0 lead in the biggest game of his career. Since it's the last game of the season, coaches will often put in trick plays and new offensive wrinkles in an attempt to maximize scoring opportunities.
Despite the excessive "overs" the last thirty years, as far as reaching the big game, you can't overlook the importance of defense. Heading into the conference championship games, the Patriots, Giants and Packers were in the Top 11 in total defense. Of course, the Pats and Packers ended up No. 1 and 2 in total offense.
A year ago the big story was the improved defense of the Colts that led the way to the title, allowing 16 ppg in four postseason contests. Who can forget five years ago when the No. 1 offense (Oakland) faced the No. 1 defense (Tampa Bay)? Oakland's great offense was a 4-point favorite, but Tampa's defense dominated in a 48-21 rout. In fact, five of the last seven Super Bowl champs have had statistically better defenses than their offenses, including the 2005 Steelers (4th in defense). Two of those champs, the 2002 Patriots and '03 Buccaneers, were Super Bowl underdogs.
You'll be able to find creative point spread props, too. A year ago, the total number of field goals was 3.5 over +135. The Colts and Bears combined for 4 field goals as the over just made it. Two years ago Seattle RB Shaun Alexander had these over/under props: Total yards 89.5, carries 21.5, and longest rush 19.5. The final tallies: 95 yards, 20 carries, with the longest rush of 21 yards. Three years ago the number of passing yards by QB Tom Brady: 237.5. The "under" ended up being the winner, but not by much: Brady finished with 236 passing yards! Let's give oddsmakers some credit for those numbers.
Key numbers will come into play, as well, as books are petrified of getting middled. Eight years ago the Rams were a 7 to 7.5-point favorite against the Titans. The Rams won by seven points, 23-16. The most famous example was in 1979, forever known in Las Vegas as "Black Sunday." The Steelers opened a 2.5-point favorite over the Cowboys, were bet up to 5, then back down to 4. Books everywhere were sick when the Steelers won, 35-31, landing on the dreaded 'M' word!
Super Bowl Past History
|
Super Bowl |
Total - Over/Under
|
41 Colts 29, Bears 17
40 Steelers 21, Seahawks 10
39 Patriots 24, Eagles 21
38 Patriots 32, Panthers 29
37 Bucs 48, Raiders 21
36 Patriots 20, Rams 17
35 Ravens 34, Giants 7
34 Rams 23, Titans 16
33 Broncos 34, Falcons 19
32 Broncos 31, Packers 24
31 Packers 35, Patriots 21
30 Cowboys 27, Steelers 17
29 49ers 49, Chargers 26
28 Cowboys 30, Bills 13
27 Cowboys 52, Bills 17
26 Redskins 37, Bills 24
25 Giants 20, Bills 19
24 49ers 55, Broncos 10
23 49ers 20, Bengals 16
22 Redskins 42, Broncos 10
21 Giants 39, Broncos 20
20 Bears 46, Patriots 10
19 49ers 39, Dolphins 16
18 Raiders 38, Redskins 9
17 Redskins 27, Dolphins 17
16 49ers 26, Bengals 21
15 Raiders 27, Eagles 10
14 Steelers 31, Rams 19
13 Steelers 35, Cowboys 31
12 Cowboys 27, Broncos 10
11 Raiders 32, Vikings 14
10 Steelers 21, Cowboys 17
9 Steelers 16, Vikings 6
8 Dolphins 24, Vikings 7
7 Dolphins 14, Redskins 7
6 Cowboys 24, Dolphins 3
5 Colts 16, Cowboys 13
4 Chiefs 23, Vikings 7
3 Jets 16, Colts 7
2 Packers 33, Raiders 14
1 Packers 35, KC 13
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49 - Under
48 - Under
47 - Under
38 - Over
43 - Over
53 - Under
33 - Over
48 - Under
51 - Over
49 - Over
52 - Over
52 - Under
53 - Over
50 - Under
44 - Over
49 - Over
40 - Under
48 - Over
48 - Under
47 - Over
40 - Over
37 - Over
53 - Over
48 - Under
36 - Over
48 - Under
37 - Under
36 - Over
37 - Over
39 - Under
38 - Over
36 - Over
33 - Under
33 - Under
33 - Under
34 - Under
36 - Under
39 - Under
40 - Under
40 - Over
NL - NL
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