NHL: Streaks, Defense and Road Dogs
Handicapping professional hockey is similar to other sports. One needs to be patient, studious and stick to tried and true wagering methods. Just like in football and basketball, one needs to keep up on inuries, coaching changes, team defense and the differences in home/road play. Here's a checklist of some key pointers to finding soft betting numbers when examining hockey games.
Streaks: If you've ever played craps or watched someone get hot in blackjack, the old adage is not to go against a hot player. It's a good tool to use in hockey wagering. Hot teams keep finding ways to win, even when they are an underdog. Players are looking forward to keeping a streak going, they don't think, "Well, we've won 8 in a row, now it's time to cool off." Like any job one enjoys, players on a hot team look forward to practice and playing the next game. It's a sense of pride and competition, two things that stoke the fires inside any pro athlete worth his salt.
The Penguins in December and January were on a hot streak, winning 11 of 14 games, even winning twice as a dog. They were even money or a dog four times and went 3-1. The better advice is not to try and guess WHEN their hot streak would end, but to look for spots to back them. The Flyers were in a middle of a 7-2 run when they faced the Rangers in NY. As a +120 dog, I pulled the trigger on the hot team. The Rangers were in the middle of a 4-9 run. The hot team got the money in a 6-2 road win as a +125 dog.
Know Your Goaltender: Teams utilize two goaltenders during a season, playing their backup roughly 15-20% of the season. Backups are used to give the main goalie a break, either because of injuries or in the second of back to back games when coaches don't want to play their No. 1 goalie on consecutive nights. Other times coaches will ride a hot goalie. Keep track of No. 1 and No. 2 goaltenders and their results. You can find spots to back a No. 1 goalie, or wager against a No. 2 goaltender.
Other times a coach might use his backup goalie in the first game to save the better goaltender for the next night against a better team or a more important game in the standings. Know your goalies and when they are going to take the ice.
Back-to-Back Games: Consecutive games in all sports can be a grind on athletes, especially when road travel is factored in. The Rangers had a stretch in January where the played back-to-back road games at Calgary and Vancouver. They battled the first game, losing just 4-3, then looked completely flat the next night in a 3-0 defeat.
Home/Road Play: Many teams play very differently at home or on the road. Speaking of the Rangers, they started an impressive 14-10 at home. On the road, though, they have all kinds of problems, starting 7-15. Why? Look inside the numbers: The Rangers allow 2.3 goals per game at home, which is very good, but 2.9 goals per game on the road. Other teams play very well on the road, such as the Penguins and Red Wings. Examine home/road breakdowns very carefully to help identify daily wagering edges.
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