Pass Rush and QB Play
It was four years ago that the Patriots beat the Colts, 24-14, in the AFC Championship game. Colts GM Bill Polian felt the Pats defensive backs were mugging his great wide receivers, so he took it up with the rules committee in the offseason. They decided to heavily enforce the 5-yard rule, a boon to passing offenses.
It's ironic that since then, the Colts have slowly gotten better defensively, while the Patriots have the devastating passing offense. It's probably no coincidence that Bill Belichick has focused more on the offense in the NFL draft the last four years, as well. The bottom line is that it's more of an offensive driven league now. The "over" went 3-1 in the playoff this past weekend, and is 5-3 thus far in the postseason.
Of the remaining playoff teams the Chargers are 10-7 over the total, the Patriots are 12-5 over, and the Packers are 12-5 over. Only the Giants (10-8 under) have more unders. Combined these teams are 42-27 over the total for the season.
It still comes to quarterback play in the NFL, but a pair of other factors have become almost as important: Pass rush and secondary play. With defensive backs limited in their ability to play physical with receivers, it's essential to have cornerbacks and safeties with speed and good cover skills. In a sense, the old adage of stopping the run first has taken a back seat to pass defense, or at least is on a more level playing field.
The other factor is a pass rush. If your team can't acquire a talent like Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, as most can't, then the next best thing is to accumulate a pass rush that can get after opposing QBs to rattle them. DE Aaron Kampman (12 sacks) of the Packers has had a great season, while the NY Giants are in the NFC title game after leading the league in sacks.
The Giants were able to upset the Cowboys with strong defensive play up front despite a ton of injuries in the secondary. The defensive backfield played without a starting cornerback (Sam Madison) and its nickel back (Kevin Dockery), then lost another corner (rookie Aaron Ross) in the third quarter to a dislocated shoulder. A rookie corner, Geoffrey Pope, made his NFL debut after he was signed off the practice squad last week. Ross vowed to be on the field Sunday when the Giants face the Packers in the NFC Championship game at Lambeau Field. "It kept popping out, but I'll be out there. As long as it's not broke I'll be out there," Ross said. "It was painful, but it's the playoffs."
While New York is banged up, the Packers are the picture of health.
"This is the healthiest we've been all year," Mike McCarthy said. "To come out of the game with zero significant injuries is an extreme positive, and to be going into the NFC championship as healthy as you've been, really since I've been here, is what we were trying to accomplish, and we got that done."
Both championship games are going to be played outdoors in cold weather. For the NFC Title game in Green Bay, the temperature is supposed to dip to a high of 7 Sunday! The game starts at 5:30 p.m., so the field won't be warmed up by the sun.
In the AFC, New England will be hosting the AFC Title game again versus San Diego. Like the Packers, the Patriots have enjoyed excellent health all season, losing only one starter (LB Roosevelt Colvin). But the Chargers suffered a rash of key injuries Sunday, losing QB Philip Rivers (right knee), RB LaDainian Tomlinson (bruised knee) while TE Antonio Gates wasn't a factor, playing on a dislocated toe suffered against Tennessee in the playoff opener.
The Chargers are on runs of 12-2 SU/ATS and 8-0 SU/ATS, but the Patriots are 17-0 and haven't lost since last January. The Pats crushed the Chargers, 38-14, in Week 2, but San Diego has changed, with a much more aggressive defense, blitzing often under DC Ted Cottrell. In the last 8 games (all wins) the Chargers have allowed 20 points or more only once (Sunday to the Colts, 24).
The Pats have yet to lose, but they have looked vulnerable on defense the second half of the season. The secondary has been lit up by the Eagles, Ravens, Giants and Jaguars in games decided by 3, 3, 3 and 11 points. They haven't been a great tackling team, something to keep an eye on this weekend against the Chargers.
The Patriots had a terrible travel schedule last January, flying 3,000 miles to San Diego, then flying to Indianapolis the next week. They certainly looked out of gas in their AFC Championship loss at the Colts. Now the shoe is on the other foot. The Chargers had to fly to Indy, fly home, and now fly 3,000 miles to New England for a second straight road game. We will see if that has any effect on the Chargers, particularly in the second half. It's not only the survival of the best, but also of the fittest.
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