NFL Playoffs: Rested Versus Rusty
It was almost two years ago, just after the 2006 NFL draft, that Patriots coach Bill Belichick called up QB Tom Brady and said, "With all the offensive players we're acquiring, we'd better lead the league in offense." He was half joking. In that 2006 draft the Pats grabbed RB Laurence Maroney (Minnesota) and WR Chad Jackson (Florida) in the first two rounds. On paper, it seemed, the Pats' offense was loaded.
Yet, a lot of things went wrong. They lost WR David Givens to free agency and WR Deion Branch was traded after a nasty holdout. Maroney was good, but not great, while Jackson was a bust. They finished 7th in the NFL in offense in 2006, but struggled against strong defensive teams. The irony is Belichick was off by a year in his prediction, as the 2007 Patriots offense torched the league at No. 1, setting several all-time records. The point is, things don't always go as planned and it's important to shore up weak areas.
A pair of teams that took care of some weak areas in the offseason meet in round one when the Bucs host the Giants. Tampa Bay upgraded their weak QB spot with veteran Jeff Garcia, which turned out to be a great move. Garcia threw 13 TDs with only 4 INTs, and three of those picks were in one game. The Bucs have placed 12 players (three offensive starters), on injured reserve, including talented RB Carnell Williams.
Two of the most important factors entering the postseason are health and defense. Tampa Bay had bad luck in the health department all year, which is partly why Jon Gruden rested key players the last two games. And their defense is No. 3 in the league, a must this time of the season. But the Giants have a strong defensive line and pass rush, and four of the five Tampa Bay offensive linemen have two seasons or less of experience, and none of that includes postseason experience. That youth has been on display the past two games, both losses, when Bucs quarterbacks have been sacked eight times and running backs have combined for an average of 55 yards.
The Giants did things differently down the stretch. Coach Tom Coughlin went all-in during the finale against the Patriots, a meaningless game for both teams as far as the postseason, but it had a playoff atmosphere. Give the Giants credit for showing up and playing hard, but it was a costly game: The Giants lost center Shaun O'Hara, backup safety Craig Dahl and LB Kawika Mitchell, all with knee injuries, and CB Sam Madison with an abdominal strain. This is a team that has already lost TE Jeremy Shockey (broken leg).
The debate this week will be about rested versus rusty. The Colts rested players two years ago down the stretch, then looked rusty in their 21-18 opening playoff loss to Pittsburgh. There's one other factor to consider: Teams that have played the Patriots are 1-7 SU/ATS the last 8 games! Teams have played at an intense level trying to knock off New England, and it seems to take a toll the following week. That's something the Giants will be dealing with this weekend.
The Redskins have a long road trip to Seattle for their playoff game. One thing to keep an eye on is the Seattle offense. They have been primarily a passing team since the middle of the season because of injuries to Shaun Alexander. Normally, coach Mike Holmgren likes balance, but he's had to junk that style and throw often with QB Matt Hassellbeck. However, the last two games the Seahawks ran for 144 and 167 yards, the two most productive rushing days all season.
The winner of the Jaguars/Steelers game is likely head to Foxboro to face the Pats. Saturday night could start the "Revenge Tour" for the Steelers. They enter the playoffs on a 1-3 SU/ATS run and have lost to the Jags and Pats the last month. They may have the No. 1 ranked defense, but the last four games they've allowed 34, 29, 24 and 27 points. They just lost to rookie QB Troy Smith, who converted a couple of third-and-long situations, and converted 9 of 16 third downs.
Finally, if you like a little football with your boxing matches, tune into the Titans/Chargers first round playoff game. In the first meeting, the Titans held a 17-3 lead midway through the fourth quarter, but the Chargers scored 20 unanswered points and won the game 23-17 in overtime. It was a physical game with late hits and penalties and eventual fines, and afterward many Titans talked about how much they wanted a rematch against the Chargers.
In it, QB Philip Rivers and Shawne Merriman were hurt, and each side accused the other of playing dirty. "There is not a lot of love at all between us," LB Keith Bulluck said. "They know what we are coming in to do and they know our style and we know their style. If people missed the first one when we played them, tune in, it should be a great one."
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