NFL Wild Card Weekend
You've probably heard the general handicapping rule that says
you're supposed to take underdogs during Wildcard Weekend, but favorites
after that. It doesn't work out that way every single season, but
history makes a good case for that general approach.
Why is that true?
During Wildcard Weekend, you've generally got fairly even teams going
head to head. The best two teams in each conference are sitting at
home watching games on TV like you are! Those elite represent the far tip
of the bell curve. The teams you're watching on TV are closer to the
pack. There's just not that much difference in the big picture
between Wildcard teams and the worst two divisional winners. Hence, the games
are close to being toss ups.
In later rounds, those elite teams are playing on their home fields,
and are well rested. They have a HUGE edge in their first games, getting
to host teams that just went to war to survive the prior weekend. In
the championship game, they typically have an edge as well. The team that
wins straight up usually covers marquee football games. The highest
seed remaining is likely to be the team that wins.
I'm not saying I'll follow that approach in every single game this
month. But I can tell you that history will influence my thinking. You
have to respect history in every game, even if you don't follow it
play by play.
We're coming up on Wildcard Weekend, which historically is supposed
to feature close conservative games. Nobody wants to lose because of a
bunch of mistakes. Everyone realizes that killing yourself physically in
a wild shootout victory this week will give you little chance to win
in the second round. That creates a restrained mindset for most playoff
offenses.
You only have to look to last season to see evidence of that:
*Indianapolis beat Kansas City 23-8, in a game that only saw 561 total
yards between the two teams. Indoors! Indianapolis dominated the first
half, yet only led 9-0 on three field goals.
*Seattle beat Dallas 21-20, in a game that saw each team score a
non-offensive touchdown. Dallas has a kickoff return score. Seattle returned
a fumble for a TD. Take those off the board, and it's a 14-13 final.
Only 616 yards were gained by the two offenses combined.
*Philadelphia beat the NY Giants 23-20, in a game that saw just 638
yards of total offense. If both teams reach 350 yards, that's a total of
700. That gives you a sense of how the defenses ruled these first
three games.
*New England beat the NY Jets 37-16, in a game that had an interception
return for a TD. That's right, the expected explosion game only had 46
offensive points.
If you throw out non-offensive scores, the game totals landed on 27,
31, 43, and 46. The first three stayed Under their
Las Vegas totals, the fourth went Over. Underdogs were 2-2 ATS (Dallas
and the NY Giants). The Colts covered as a favorite, but didn't
exactly set the scoreboard on fire in the process.
As you handicap this weekend, you should be looking to find the best
Dog and Under spots based on the historical tendencies. Which
offenses are going to run clock? Which defenses will be able to keep
opponents out of the end zone? Will weather be a factor that hurts favorites
at any of the sites?
Consider these guidelines:
*If you would have played the dog in a regular season meeting between
the teams, you should LOVE the dog this week.
*If you would have passed in a regular season meeting, you should be
thinking about the dog this week.
*If you would have played the favorite in the regular season, you may
want to pass.
*If you would have LOVED the favorite in the regular season, it's
probably okay to lay the points. New England and Indy did win as favorites
last year. It's not like underdogs win EVERY game. Just make sure
you can make a very solid case for the favorite. The public tends to bet
favorites blindly. That's a horrible Wildcard strategy.
*If you would have played the Under in a regular season meeting between
the teams, you should LOVE the Under this week.
*If you would have passed the total in a regular season meeting, you
should be thinking about the Under this week.
*If you would have played the Over in a regular season meeting, you
may want to pass, or only making the Over a light play.
*If you would have LOVED the Over in a regular season meeting, you can
probably go ahead and play the Over as long as bad weather isn't a
factor.
I can't tell you here who I'll be playing this weekend. But I can
promise that those general guidelines influenced my thinking a great
deal. You should put them to use in your own handicapping process.
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