Success Breeds Winning and Confidence
Coaching is about teaching. I recall a comment Red Auerbach used to make about teaching: "It's not how much you tell them, it's how much they absorb." A good coach needs to be able to reach out to players, like a teacher to students, and explain things in a way that they will grasp. It's not easy to do and there are more bad coaches than good ones. All the talk in the world is meaningless if the student or athlete doesn't understand it.
When it comes to winning on the gridiron, players need confidence, and that's one thing a coach can't teach. A player has to go out and do it. Clutch play and execution at crunch time requires confidence in one's ability, as well as the confidence that their teammates will also execute properly.
Think about two of the last three games the Patriots have played. While all the talk is that this is the greatest NFL team ever, the fact is they have a lot of football to play and they could easily have lost two of the last three games. They trailed 20-10 at Indy late, yet rallied for a 24-20 win. They trailed the Eagles 28-24, but put together a fourth quarter drive for the lead, then the defense came up with a key interception. The good teams seem to do this all the time, and it's not an accident. Teams with good coaches have their players ready to perform.
It's also no coincidence that poorly coached teams always seem to blow games, even ones they should win. One problem the Redskins have is a young QB in Jason Campbell. He's getting better, but the last two weeks the team has had crushing last-second losses. Even worse, Campbell drove them down the field each time, only to throw an interception that ended it. You have to hope it's a growing phase for him, which is likely. On the other hand, a young player's confidence can get shaken when things continue to go wrong, and you have to hope Campbell doesn't get frustrated or down on himself.
Speaking of crushing losses, how about the Rams? The poor Lambs have had a miserable season with everything going wrong. They just blew a 19-7 halftime lead at home in a 24-19 defeat to Seattle. The goat was journeyman QB Gus Frerotte, who played like he didn't want to be in the spotlight. On first and goal at the four in the final minute, he badly underthrew a wide-open WR at the goal line. On fourth down at the one, Frerotte fumbled the handoff and was sacked by Seattle defensive end Darryl Tapp. Game over.
The Rams had nine offensive possessions after Jeff Wilkins' 23-yard field goal gave them that 19-7 lead. Seven of those nine possessions resulted in punts, including four three-and-outs. One ended with Frerotte throwing an interception. Bad teams play not to lose. The Rams are officially eliminated from NFC West title contention, while at 7-4, Seattle is closing in on its fourth consecutive West championship.
One also needs confidence at the betting window. If you lose a game that you felt should have covered, don't get down on yourself as it could eat into your confidence. I took a shot going against two teams that are in similar losing funks on Sunday. The Chiefs were a home favorite over Oakland, but are depleted at running back and the way their offense sets up, they need to be effective running the ball to generate any semblance of a consistent attack. Oakland showed some life in a loss at Minnesota, so I took the points going against the bumbling favorite. Oakland not only covered but won straight up - or should we say the Chiefs lost it. Either way, the dog got the money.
Another play was against Baltimore, traveling all the way out to San Diego. I felt the Ravens were the perfect adversary for up and down San Diego. Baltimore's defense is no longer creating any kind of havoc, and they were outscored 111-58 in four consecutive losses. The previous week's defeat at the hands of Cleveland was the worst of the bunch in terms of being really tough to swallow. Having to travel coast to coast with their playoff hopes now basically shot was a very tall order, and I couldn't see the Ravens being equal to the task. As disappointing as SD has been, they're still 5-1 at home and four of those wins were by double digits. I cashed easily with the Chargers as my NFL Game of the Month, a 32-14 rout.
The Colts, Steelers and Patriots came into this season with reputations of playing smart, sound, winning football. Each had won a Super Bowl over the last three years. And what do we find against the spread thus far? All have winning ATS marks, with the Steelers at 5-4 ATS, the Colts at 7-4 ATS and the Pats 9-2 ATS. Winning builds confidence and success, not on the football field but at the betting window.
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