Picking a Timely Upset
While most businesses reward the go-getter who rises to the top and let go of the weak links, the NFL has it backwards. That is, they reward the bottom-feeders with high draft picks and easy schedules, and make it tougher on last year's playoff teams in an attempt to increase competitiveness.
You might not think so with the way the Colts, Steelers and Patriots have been successful for so many years, but it works for the NFL. Generally speaking, there is parity. The Saints can be doormats in 2005 with a 3-13 record, make it to the NFC Championship game the next year, then start out 0-4 SU/ATS this season.
The Eagles were 3-13 and 5-11 from 1998-99, then put together back-to-back playoff seasons. The Patriots went from 5-11 to their first Super Bowl in 2001. The 2001 Panthers were 1-15, worst in the league, then two years later were in the Super Bowl! I still think it's odd that the worst teams are rewarded with the top picks in the draft each year. That's kind of like a sports handicapper being congratulated for losing more than he wins.
Ironically, the NFL's obsession with parity is terrific in many respects for the astute pointspread analyst. Indeed, the NFL has become a league where the worst team can beat the best on any given weekend. The 2007 Patriots may be the real deal, but it's still more difficult than ever to go through an entire season unbeaten.
The Broncos were 13-0 in 1998, the Chiefs started 9-0 in 2003 and the Colts were unbeaten through Week 9 in each of the last two seasons. None made it through unscathed. The Patriots are in that running this season with their new-look, sizzling offense. They have not only won 'em all, but covered every game, which is remarkable. Going 16-0 will be very difficult to do (No one has done that since the 1972 Dolphins) and they certainly won't cover every game, as oddsmakers keep pushing the number up and up each week. This makes for handicapping spots where you can look for an upset with teams off to hot starts.
In 2003 the Kansas City Chiefs got off to a 9-0 start (8-1 against the number). There was talk about an undefeated season, as the difficult part of the schedule was over. In Las Vegas and in the offshore industry, prop bets surfaced on whether the Chiefs would run the table or not. Well, I hope you didn't hold your breath long. Kansas City lost 24-19 at Cincinnati as a 6-point favorite. In fact, the Chiefs ended up going 4-4 straight up and 2-6 against the number after that 9-0 start. The 2005 Colts started 9-3 ATS, but finished 0-4-1 ATS getting overvalued by oddsmakers.
You may recall John Elway's last year in the NFL, 1998, when the Broncos started 13-0. With all the hype, cold reality set in as Denver went 0-4 ATS to end the regular season, which included upset losses to the Giants and Dolphins. It is seemingly impossible for an NFL team to get through their entire slate without suffering at least a few down weeks.
A key to successful handicapping is determining when's the best time to fade the better teams by taking the points with a seemingly inferior opponent. Another way of looking at this is if you see a team ripping opponents on consecutive weeks, there is a chance that this team isn't really as dominant as it's looked and could be worth a go-against. If a team wins by around 20 points or more in consecutive weeks - which is very difficult to do in the NFL, see if they are over-valued the following week. Chances are they're not a dominant team, just a hot one.
Hot teams cool off sooner than later, as well. Yes, I know the Patriots have been tearing up opponents, winning every game by 17 points or more, but this is highly unusual. Take a look at the Steelers. They won their first three games by 24, 23 and 21 points. They've gone 1-2 SU/ATS since, even losing at Arizona as a 6-point favorite.
A year ago the Chargers won their first two games by 27 and 33 points! The next game they were a road favorite at Baltimore, but lost straight up. A few years ago those same Ravens experienced this. After ripping the 49ers 44-6 and the Bengals 31-13, Baltimore flew to the West Coast and lost 20-12 at Oakland as a 7-point favorite.
So don't be swayed when you see a team dominate opponents in consecutive weeks and think this is the team that's going to win the Super Bowl. Even if a team starts the season 8-0, they're likely to be overvalued by oddsmakers. The Vikings looked like world-beaters during their 6-0 SU/ATS start in 2003, but they went 2-8 ATS the rest of the way. Like a good stock analyst, learn when to jump on and off the hot and cold teams.
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