The Value of Run Defense
Like a giant leak on a sinking ship, one of the first signs of a poor pro football team is weak run defense. Stopping the run is essential to building a championship team. I know what you're thinking: A year ago the Colts had the worst run defense in the NFL, yet won the Super Bowl. That is true, but it also was an aberration.
Even that doesn't tell the whole story, as the Colts' run defense was suddenly dominant in the postseason. The mid-season addition of DT Anthony McFarland, moving LB Rob Morris inside and the return of hard-hitting safety Bob Saunders all coincided with the Indy playoff run, led by their defense. Their Super Bowl opponent, the Bears, were No. 1 in total defense and eighth against the rush.
In 2005, the Carolina Panthers were 4th in the league at stopping the run behind its fearsome front foursome. They made it to the NFC Championship game. The team just ahead of the Panthers was the Steelers, who won the Super Bowl. In 2003 the Patriots finished No. 3 against the run with the addition of NT Ted Washington. In 2004 they let Washington walk, but added Keith Traylor and rookie Vince Wilfork to the line and finished No. 6 overall against the run. Both those teams won the Super Bowl.
Back in 2001 the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had the No. 1 overall defense, a solid 6th against the run and celebrated a title. Stopping the run in some capacity is essential for success in football. Think about how many third and short situations you see over the course of a game. If a team can't stop the run, opponents can simply run the ball all day long, picking up first downs and controlling the clock. After five games in 2007, here's a list of pro teams allowing the most yards rushing per game:
Rushing allowed pg. - SU - ATS
23rd: 49ers - 124: 2-3 - 2-3
24th: Chiefs - 125: 2-3 - 2-2-1
25th: Jets - 127: 1-4 - 1-3-1
26th Raiders - 129: 2-2 - 2-2
27th: Bills - 133: 1-4 - 3-2
28th: Rams - 146: 0-5 - 1-4
29th: Bengals - 152: 1-3 - 2-2
30th: Browns - 157: 2-3 - 3-2
31st: Dolphins - 174: 0-5 - 1-2-2
32nd: Broncos - 187: 2-3 - 0-5
None of these teams have a winning record and only one has a winning spread mark. Four (Jets, Chiefs, Bengals, Broncos) have been the biggest busts in the NFL. The combined record of that defenseless group against the run was 13-25 straight up and 17-27-4 against the number.
Denver is off its bye week after a disastrous 41-3 defeat at home to San Diego, a poor defensive start under new DC Jim Bates. Denver remains the No. 1-ranked pass defense, but is last in run defense, which shows how skewed stats can be. Defensive end Simeon Rice signed with Denver six days before the season started because of his 121 career sacks. Yet, he is sackless with a surgically repaired shoulder that has not completely healed. "There will be no major changes," coach Mike Shanahan said. That's likely bad news for Denver's abysmal run defense.
The Bills are off their bye week, a victim of poor timing after that shocking 25-24 Monday night collapse to Dallas. No one wants to sit around two weeks thinking about that stinging defeat. Yet, one positive note is that the last two games the Bills have allowed just 60 and 76 rushing yards to the Jets and Cowboys, even more impressive when you realize how many injuries this defense has had. The importance was not lost on Bills coach Dick Jauron, who said, "Our defense did a terrific job. We stopped the run. I think it starts there. We gave them some different looks and got them to throw into some coverages."
Go back to 2005 and the worst teams against the run were the Titans, Packers, Lions, Raiders, Falcons, Saints, Rams, Jets, Browns, Bills and Texans. What stands out? None made the playoffs or had winning records. By contrast, of the ten worst teams against the pass that season, that list includes the Patriots, Broncos, Giants, Seahawks and Bengals. All made the playoffs. The Steelers and Seahawks met in the Super Bowl and both were in the Top 5 in rush defense and in the Top 6 in yards per carry allowed. Simply put, it's more important to stop the run first.
That is why talented run stuffers are in high demand, such as nose tackles Casey Hampton, Jamal Williams, Wilfwork and John Henderson. Run defense is an excellent place to start when examining strengths and weaknesses each week, and for potential future bets as history has not been kind to teams that are not stout against the run in the postseason.
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