Scheduling, Travel and Bye Weeks
Bye weeks in the NFL are cropping up now, so it's a good time of the season to bring up scheduling. Scheduling dynamics are an essential part of handicapping. Teams making long road trips can be at a disadvantage, while changing time zones and logging all that road mileage. Pro athletes make their living by having their bodies in top shape, so something as seemingly mundane as a long road trip can give the opponent a physical and mental edge.
And sports, be it playing in the game or trying to beat the books, is about looking for edges. Look at the first two games of the NFL season for Tampa Bay. The Bucs, located in the Southeast, had to travel all the way to the Northwest to play the Seahawks in Week 1. That's about the longest possible road trip in the U.S. for an NFL team. They were flattened, 20-6.
It was easy to dismiss them as a bad team, but look what happened the next week: They came home and flattened New Orleans 31-14 as a 3-point home dog! Think the long road trip was a cause in them being so flat in Week 1? They've looked like a very good team ever since, going 4-1 SU/ATS.
The Baltimore Ravens had a tough scheduling dynamic recently, playing consecutive road games at Cleveland and San Francisco. They failed to cover both games, with the offense totally out of sync in a 9-7 win at the 49ers. That's a lot of travel miles in one week. The Ravens came home Sunday and covered with ease as a big favorite, flattening the Rams 22-3. The last few years Baltimore has a reputation of being a great home team, but suspect on the road. They won and covered even with backup quarterback Kyle Boller, and starting three rookies and two 24-year-olds on the offensive line. The banged up Rams were playing their third road game in four weeks, which included trips to Tampa Bay and Dallas.
The Chargers had one of the toughest schedules in September, a factor in their disappointing 1-3 start. They opened against the Bears, when Chicago was healthy, and the two teams played a rough, physical game. The next two weeks the Chargers had to fly 3,000 miles to play the Patriots in the Northeast, then fly all the way to Wisconsin for a game at Green Bay. That's two long road trips back to back! The Chargers were flat in each game, getting smashed 38-14 at New England and getting upset 31-24 at Green Bay.
The bye week is another factor tied into rest and preparation for a game. Some teams are poorly coached and don't take as much advantage of their bye week as others. Other times, teams are hurting with injuries but the bye week can help them get healthy.
On Sunday I had an Under the Hat play on the Philadelphia Eagles. It was a big scheduling edge for the Eagles as they came in off a bye against a weary Jets team that can't stop making mistakes on offense. The fact the Jets were off a loss to the rival Giants was a plus for the road side, as well. And it was a huge game for Philly with the pre-bye loss to the Giants, giving up 12 sacks on national TV.
Eagles Andy Reid knows how to prepare a team to play. Since Reid arrived in 1999 they are 3-6 going into the bye week, but 8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS coming out of the bye! That's a sign that a coach is on the ball. In addition, the Eagles were getting healthy, as RB Brian Westbrook, TE L.J. Smith and OT William Thomas returned.
Westbrook had missed the Giants game with an injury, and while RB Correll Buckhalter rushed for more than 100 yards, he wasn't a threat in the passing game or much help protecting McNabb. TE Smith, one of McNabb's favorite targets, had played in only one game this season. The Eagles got the money in a 16-9 win at NY. So don't look at individual games on the schedule. Check out the previous week and the following week, paying attention to travel time, scheduling spots and bye weeks.
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