Turnovers Can Turn the Tide
Let's examine one of the most basic fundamentals of winning football: Turnovers. Why did USC lose 24-23 to Stanford as a 41-point favorite Saturday? Why did the Packers to the Bears Sunday night? Both home favorites lost outright becuase of 5 turnovers each.
Defensive coaches have been preaching more aggressive, attacking stop units over the last decade. South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier has spent two decades coaching college and pro football, at Duke, Florida, South Carolina and the Washington Redskins. When asked about what the biggest change he had noticed in the college game, Spurrier spoke not about the wide-open passing attack that he helped to popularize, but about defenses. He mentioned that when he first took over at Duke in the 1980s, defenses were basic and reacted to what the offense would try and do on each play.
However, since that time, defenses have become far more aggressive, trying to attack the offense rather than sit back and react. Two decades ago the Chicago Bears famed 46 defense caused havoc around the league during a 1985 Super Bowl season. The Bears were 18-1 straight up and 15-3-1 against the spread, led by a devastating, attacking defense. They pitched four shutouts and held 14 of 19 opponents to 10 points or less.
Defensive coaches in both the pro and college ranks have been teaching players to not only tackle properly, but to aggressively strip the ball from opposing players. Tony Dungy, Bill Belichick and Lovie Smith have used their teaching talents to upgrade defenses. A key component of aggressive defenses is to force more turnovers. They are a huge part of any contest. Take a look at the bottom teams in turnover margin in the NFL last season:
2006 Worst TO Margin - ATS record
Raiders (-23) - 6-10 ATS
Browns (-15) -- 7-8-1 ATS
Bucs (-12) ---- 6-9-1 ATS
Lions (-9) ---- 6-10 ATS
Seahawks (-8) - 7-10-1 ATS
Steelers (-8) - 7-8-1 ATS
Several things stand out. One is that only one team (Seattle) made the playoffs. Another is that one was the defending champion Steelers, who fell short of the playoffs largely because of all their turnovers. In fact, the Steelers were strong in a lot of statistical categories in 2006, ranking sixth in total offense and 11th in defense, but turnovers were a killer. Those teams were a combined 39-55-1 against the spread.
Going back a step further, the teams with the worst turnover differential in 2005 had a combined 36-57 record against the spread. A quarterback who throws too many picks can kill the momentum of his offense, and his confidence can get worn down. It can even spill over onto the sidelines.
A few year's ago in a playoff game, QB Marc Bulger threw 3 interceptions against the Panthers and while the Rams had a chance to win the game late in the fourth quarter, coach Mike Martz decided to play it safe and settled for a game-tying field goal. He was widely criticized for this after the Rams lost in overtime and it's clear in the back of his mind he was thinking, "I don't want Bulger to throw another interception. I'd better play it safe." The biggest reason the Bears have been such a disappointment is QB Rex Grossman, who started with one TD and 6 picks before getting benched. Take a look at last season's top teams in turnover margin:
2006 Top TO Margin - ATS record
Ravens (+17) - 10-7 ATS
Rams (+14) --- 9-7 ATS
Chargers (+13) - 9-8 ATS
Patriots (+8) - 11-7-1 ATS
Bears (+8) -- 10-8-1 ATS
Colts (+7) -- 12-8 ATS
It's not hard to notice how essential turnovers are. All the top teams in turnover margin but one (Rams) made the playoffs in 2006, with the Bears and Colts making the Super Bowl. No team had a losing spread record, either, and were a combined 61-45-1 ATS. The Chargers had a 14-2 regular season, but notice this year they are minus in turnovers, a huge factor in their disappointing start.
The Rams had a terrible defense last season, ranked second to last against the run, but a huge plus-margin in turnovers helped them to overachieve, both straight up and against the number. This season has been very different, ranking as one of the worst teams in turnover margin during their 0-4 SU/ATS start.
The cumulative spread record of the 2005 top turnover teams: 70-47-5 against the number, and that doesn't even include the champion Steelers, who had a 13-7 spread record. The Steelers were not far off the list, either, ranking 10th in TO margin at +7. Teams good at forcing turnovers not only win on the field but there is an ATS correlation.
For the record, after four weeks of play, the top teams in 2007 in turnover margin were the Colts, Cowboys, Seahawks, Bucs, Patriots, Steelers and Packers. All had winning records and three were undefeated, while the Bucs and Packers have been the NFL's biggest surprises. The combined spread marks: 22-6! Be careful backing teams that are sloppy at taking care of the football. Chances are they don't win or cover the number as regularly as those that play smart, mistake-free ball.
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