Handicapping Around the Injury-Bug
There are times when the betting public overreacts to injuries. Oddsmakers often anticipate this and will move a number if a high profile running back, linebacker or wide receiver is out. But other than the all-important quarterback position, it's best not to get too focused on individual injuries.
The last two weeks the Patriots have been without featured RB Laurence Maroney. No problem. They steamrolled the Bengals and Browns behind backup RB Sammy Morris to the tune of 173 and 143 rushing yards. The Arizona Cardinals lost starting QB Matt Leinart to a broken collarbone Sunday, yet veteran backup Kurt Warner came off the bench again and played well, helping the offense to score 34 points.
That's really the key with injuries: Is it a vital position, like QB? And does the team have adequate depth? If they do have decent depth, then injuries shouldn't be that big a concern from a handicapping perspective.
The real concern is when teams don't have any depth, or they lose players at multiple positions. There's no better example than the St. Louis Rams, whose offensive line has been devastated. The Rams are without All-Pro left tackle Orlando Pace, out for the season with a serious shoulder injury. The injury has caused the Rams to scramble, since back-up tackle Todd Steussie is sidelined for at least half this season with a broken foot.
Rams rookie RB Brian Leonard has been filling in for injured RB Steven Jackson (partial tear of his left groin). QB Marc Bulger was sacked six times in Week 2 and is out resting two broken ribs. 14-year veteran QB Gus Frerotte started Sunday and threw for 262 yards and 3 TDs, but also threw 3 picks in a 34-31 loss to Arizona.
This is an example of a team with SO many injuries that even any depth is ravaged. Look at it this way: The Rams were very good offensively last season, ranked 11th in the league in total offense. This season: 27th in the NFL. The Rams have 7 touchdowns in five games, and only 2 in the second half. They are also 4-1 under the total.
The Arizona Cardinals are going to be interesting to watch. Starting quarterback Matt Leinart suffered a fractured left collarbone and is expected to miss at least several weeks, if not the rest of the season. On the one hand, they have veteran Kurt Warner (4 TDs, one INT), who has played well. However, Warner is 36-years old and at this stage he's probably better not being asked to play a whole game. He excelled in the part-time, no-huddle role, but now will be asked to start. What happens when that 36-year old body takes a few hits?
Multiple injuries devastated the Tampa Bay running game the last two weeks, which was unfortunate as they are off to a good start. RB Carnell Williams is lost for the season after a knee injury. RB Michael Pittman suffered a broken fibula in Sunday's loss to Indianapolis. Pittman is expected to miss six-to-eight weeks. It was the second week in a row that the team's No. 1 back has left the locker room on crutches. RB Earnest Graham replaced Pittman and Kenneth Darby will share time.
The team that has taken the most hits, though, is Buffalo. The poor Bills are in rebuilding mode anyway after shipping out so many veterans the last two years. Starting QB J.P. Losman (knee injury) has been out forcing rookie QB Trent Edwards in. They lost three defensive starters to serious injuries in the opener and saw tight end Kevin Everett suffer a serious injury to his spinal column.
Starting free safety Ko Simpson suffered a fractured ankle, LB Coy Wire - starting in place of injured Keith Ellison - suffered a torn knee ligament. Starting cornerback Jason Webster broke his forearm and was replaced by Ashton Youboty, and against New England rookie LB Paul Posluszny broke his left forearm.
The flip side of all this, of course, is when teams get players back from injuries. That can also help turn things around. The Eagles have had a terrible start, but one thing in their favor is that they are getting significant players back for next week's game at the Jets. That includes RB Brian Westbrook, TE L.J. Smith and OL William Thomas. Westbrook missed the Giants game with an injury, and Smith, one of Donovan McNabb's favorite targets, has played in only one game this season.
Overall, don't get hung up when one player has an injury, unless it's at QB. After all, Saturday night USC QB John David Booty played the final 2.5 quarters with a broken middle finger on his throwing hand. He was awful with 4 picks in the Trojans stunning 24-23 loss to Stanford as 41-point chalk! QB is such a pivotal position. But overall, pay more attention to depth and multiple injuries when assessing how injuries may influence the side or total.
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