September College Football: Upset City!
There's a reason they play the games. Teams don't always play the way stats and power rankings suggest they're supposed to. That's often evident early in the pro and college football seasons because some teams are very different from year to year. I wrote last week about the improvements offensively in Notre Dame with new coach Charlie Weis. Certainly, the Irish have a completely different look offensively, with a spread formation attack featuring, at times, four and five wide receiver sets. Saturday saw a shocker as Louisville lost at South Florida in a blowout.
September is a fascinating time to follow college football partly because of surprises. We've already seen a bunch of surprises. Oklahoma was anticipated by many as a Top 20 team, yet they've already been upset by TCU as a 24-point favorite, and run over by UCLA, 41-24. Clearly, the lack of quarterback experience has been detrimental, as well as a poor pass defense. TCU held the Sooners running game to 2.7 yards per carry, while UCLA passed for 314 yards over the suddenly suspect Sooner secondary.
It's important not to read too much into these upsets, either. Sometimes a team pulls a huge upset not so much because it is so much more improved, but because the opponent is overvalued. This was the case with TCU, which dominated Oklahoma, then went out the next week and lost to SMU, 21-10 as a 131/2-point favorite. Were the SMU Mustangs that much improved? No, as the next week SMU lost 66-8 at Texas A&M.
September college football also features significant shifts and changes, not just because of injuries but because of ineffective play. Oklahoma falls into that category, as coach Bob Stoops has changed quarterbacks already. Coaches select new starters based on scrimmages before the season, but there's a huge difference between practice and real-game situations. Subtle things reveal themselves in games, such as leadership, decision-making, performance and even pressure. Some players, quarterbacks in particular, have weaknesses in those areas that don't fully reveal themselves until game-day competition. As a result, that can throw off preseason prognostications of fans, media and even the team's coaching staff.
A great example of this has been Tennessee. Expectations were high all year over the Volunteers football season, with 8 starters back on offense and 9 on defense to a team that had gone 10-3 and had whipped Texas A&M, 38-7, in a January 1st bowl. However, they've already had a disappointing offense with a pair of revolving quarterbacks. Sophomore Erik Ainge was named the starter in the opener against UAB, but the offense stumbled in a 17-10 win as a 21-point favorite.
So coach Phil Fulmer named senior Rick Clausen the starter for the showdown with Florida. Clausen was awful, throwing 5 passes for zero yards, and Fulmer quickly brought in Ainge. After losing 16-7 at Florida, Fulmer shifted gears again and named Ainge the starter for last Saturday's game against LSU. What was clear all summer long - that Ainge would run the talented Tennessee offense - has not been so clear after three games. Such are the surprises of September college football.
Speaking of the SEC, Vanderbilt's 3-0 SU/ATS start has been a great story. Though it can't be classified as a colossal upset, Vandy's 28-24 win at Arkansas as a 10-point dog is typical of the surprises that occur this time of year. It was an example of a rebuilding, overrated Arkansas squad taking on an underrated, senior-laden Vandy team.
Of course, the biggest surprise has been Pitt. Expectations were high with a lot of returning starters and a new coach in Dave Wannstedt. However, tiny Ohio won 16-10 at home over the Panthers as a +14 dog. Sometimes upsets like that can fill a team full of confidence and spur them to a winning season, while other times that big upset can be a solitary surprise. It's essential for sports bettors to grasp this. Notice that Ohio also went 0-2 SU/ATS losing badly to Northwestern (38-14) and Virginia Tech (45-0). Understand that preseason expectations are not set in stone, and don't overvalue teams simply based on one impressive game. Big dogs often bark in September, but that doesn't mean they will continue to bark the rest of the season - or even the next game!
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