Dissecting Weaknesses to Expose Frauds
A basic element in handicapping is sifting through stats and match-ups to identify what's real and what's smoke and mirrors. Some college and pro teams can put up some awesome numbers in September, but that is really meaningless if they are playing nobodies.
Take Iowa a year ago. The Hawkeyes started the season 4-0. Yet, they beat Montana State, and rebuilding teams Syracuse, Iowa State and Illinois. Syracuse even took them to overtime as a 16-point dog. Iowa's next game was against No. 1 Ohio State, and as a 6-point dog the Hawkeyes were exposed in a 38-16 rout.
Missouri is one to watch this season. The Tigers have an electric offense, one averaging 42 points, 200 yards rushing and 344 passing per game during their 4-0 start. But they haven't beaten anybody, outside of a win against Illinois in the opener, one they should have lost. Even more alarming is this defense which hasn't stopped anybody on the ground or in the air. This weekend they host Nebraska, a team they lost to 34-20 a year ago.
In the NFL, the Denver Broncos started as 2-0 frauds. They may have been ranked No. 1 in total offense during that start, but they still should have been 0-2, pulling out fortunate last second wins over Buffalo and Oakland. So it's no surprise that they've been smoked the last two games by Jacksonville and Indianapolis. New defensive coordinator Jim Bates was brought in and he said back in preseason that his No. 1 priority was to stop the run. After four games the Broncos are second worst in the NFL allowing 181 yards on the ground per contest! They have earned that 0-4 spread mark.
I had a play on the Seahawks over the weekend, partly because San Francisco is a bit of a fraud. In my analysis I wrote, "The 49ers are a phony 2-1. They could easily be 0-3 and they're really struggling offensively. Seattle hasn't been sensational by any means, but the Seahawks are clearly in better form here. I see the number being short here as the superior team is laying less than a FG and I therefore have this as a good value spot for Seattle. Lay the points with the Seahawks." The game was pretty much over by halftime as Seattle rolled, 23-3. The 49ers are currently 20th in total defense and dead last in total offense.
And speaking of frauds, what are we to make of the Dolphins and Chargers, two teams with new coaching staffs? The Dolphins have been snakebitten at QB. They chose Daunte Culpepper over free agent Drew Brees a year ago, and Culpepper was a bust. This offseason new coach Cam Cameron chose Trent Green over Culpepper. Culpepper came back to Miami Sunday and led the Raiders to victory.
Miami's once strong defense is allowing 199 yards rushing per game, worst in the league. Asked what needs to be fixed on this team, cornerback Will Allen simply said, "Everything," while Cameron said "The sun's going to come up tomorrow." What a mess!
And Norv Turner? QB Philip Rivers and Turner were booed as they walked off the field in Sunday's stunning 30-16 loss to the Chiefs. The Chargers were the favorite, 5-to-1, to win the Super Bowl when opening lines came out, but now they appear disorganized under Turner. The Chargers returned 20 starters from a 14-2 team, the only significant differences being that their head coach was replaced.
The offense is 26th overall and the once-vaunted running game is 25th averaging 83 yards per game. QB Philip Rivers has 9 turnovers, just two fewer than his total all of last year. "When you change things," LB Donnie Edwards said this week, "funny things can happen." Funny for the rest of the league, but not to LT, GM A.J. Smith and the San Diego fans. A year ago Charger safety Marlon McCree said, "If the Super Bowl has to come through San Diego, you might as well book your hotel rooms now." A lot has changed since then, Marlon.
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