Football's Killer Instinct
One aspect of football wagering is emotion. It's not always easy to find, but it can be a powerful motivating factor on the gridiron, and at the betting window. Sometimes a team will be fired up for a revenge game, an opposing player will tick off a team with some ill-timed comment, or a coach will be angry and ask the most out of his team.
It's important to keep track of past results. Last year a talented Notre Dame offense flattened Penn State, 41-17. But payback was in the cards a few weeks ago when the rebuilding Irish traveled to Beaver stadium and the Lions exacted some revenge in a 31-10 rout. I used two examples of teams with killer instincts this past weekend, and both got the cover by huge margins.
The 2006 Kansas Jayhawks were very close to being a terrific team. Their problem was that they just could not finish off their games, finishing up 6-6 and missing a bowl. The result was five fourth quarter leads that turned into eventual losses. The reality is that Kansas could very well have been a 10-2 team heading off to a big bowl instead of a 6-6 team that spent the holidays at home.
But this year's edition of the Jayhawks shouldn't have to sweat getting a postseason invite. They hosted Toledo over the weekend, their third straight home game. In my analysis I noted, "I believe it will be a complete annihilation. It's a huge revenge game for Kansas, and Toledo has the look of a team that has little focus and may be on the verge of a complete overhaul that starts with the coaching staff. The Rockets are terrible defensively and none of their QBs are displaying consistency.
"Toledo will have to run the football to have any chance here, and KU is great at stopping the run. The enthusiasm level in Lawrence is very high and this is a big game for the home team. Lay the lumber early as this likely goes up considerably. I would not rule out a line move to as much as -24. Play Kansas minus the points in a massacre." The number did move to 24 and the Jayhawks still had no trouble covering in a 45-13 rout.
Of Kansas's four collapses in 2006, none hurt more than its 37-31 double-overtime defeat at Toledo. For one, it prevented KU from entering Big 12 play 4-0 and eventually kept the Jayhawks from going bowling. Plus, it was played in prime time on a Friday night, in front of a national TV audience on ESPN2. The whole country got to see KU turn the ball over five times and blow several chances to win the game in overtime with suspect play-calling and poor execution.
Notice what Kansas coach Mark Mangino had to say this week: "We watched that game and broke it down in the wintertime. And there's been a situation here where nobody has really talked about it. But it's the 800-pound gorilla sitting in the middle of the room. It was a frustrating day. We didn't play well." But they did in the rematch! "We have something to be mad about," Kansas linebacker Joe Mortensen said. "You can try to forget, but at the same time, it's hard to erase losing a game like that."
In the NFL, an emotional game of a different sort reared its head in Week 2. The Patriots were getting clobbered in the national media for the videotape scandal. Rather than point fingers or claim innocence, the Patriots quietly kept their mouth's shut and drew a circle around them and their coach. It was an "us against the world" type atmosphere, one where they were totally focused on proving that they don't need videotaped signals or to cheat to be competitive with anyone.
In my pregame analysis I wrote, "It's been an incredibly turbulent week for the Patriots and beleaguered coach Belichick. The consensus is that the Pats may be distracted with all the off field stuff taking place, but I'm not buying that philosophy. Perhaps on the road that might be the case, but not in Foxboro, where the Patriots are all but impossible to beat. This is actually now a proving ground game for New England. San Diego will be eager to get some revenge for last season's playoff defeat, but they weren't exactly sharp out of the gate. I rate the Patriots as the better entry, they're at home and they're giving just over a field goal. That's cheap, and I'll therefore be compelled to play the Patriots here."
They played like a team in a mission, sprinting to a 24-0 halftime lead in dominating fashion. "What did you see out there tonight?" said Tedy Bruschi, who was fired up in the postgame locker room. "After all the name-calling and all the accusations, that's who we are." The Patriots let their play do the talking. Teams focused on a killer instinct are worth backing on the field and at the betting window.
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