Preseason Week 4: Overvalued Home Favorites
The meat of the preseason is behind us, as for the most part starters have already seen their greatest action. Week 4 is a tune up, more of an annoyance for many teams. The starters barely will see time while coaches evaluate players on the bubble and backups. NFL clubs must trim their rosters to 75 players by Aug. 28, then the final cutdown to 53 players is September 1.
Coaches are mainly interested in staying healthy as after Week 4 the games count in the standings. With that in mind, serious sports bettors should take note of the fact that the last two years home teams have been overvalued significantly in Week 4 of the preseason. Last year, the visiting team went 10-5-1 against the spread the final week of August. Two years ago in Week 4 of the exhibition season the visitors went 10-6 ATS.
That's a sizzling 20-11-1 against the spread mark. What's happening is that oddsmakers have so little information to work with for the final preseason game, that they can overvalue the home field edge. Even in preseason, home field can be worth a few extra points, as we saw Sunday night when the Steelers topped the Eagles, 27-13. Pittsburgh fans get behind their team even in August.
However, the final preseason game is the one least likely to provide a home field advantage as most coaches just want to stay healthy. Most starters will play one or two series, or not at all. A year ago in Week 4 of the preseason, the two biggest favorites were the Cowboys at -6 over Minnesota and the Jets at -5 over Philadelphia. Both favorites were at home, of course. And both visiting dogs covered, as the Jets won 20-17 and the Cowboys and Vikings played to a 10-10 tie.
After three weeks of preseason, there are still some interesting questions to ask about several teams, particularly at quarterback. It's been a three-ring QB circus with teams like the Browns and Raiders desperately searching for a signal caller.
The Lions got bombed by the Colts 37-10 because they had no defense or QB. Jon Kitna did not play because he wasn't fully recovered from a back injury. J.T. O'Sullivan started and went the distance, and there was no comparison between his play and Kitna's. Kitna's absence had an effect on the entire team. The offense wasn't sharp. The defense was on the field too long and got shredded by QB Peyton Manning. The offense had 14 running plays and gained 32 yards. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz uses the run to set up the pass, but you need a quarterback. The Lions will be in bigger trouble if Kitna can't play.
The Bills offensive line is very poor. Buffalo wanted to run more with Marshawn Lynch in Week 3, their prized rookie RB, but they looked like a rag-tag unit. Tennessee, a team with injuries and a suspect defensive line, pushed the Bills offensive line all over the place and manhandled Lynch and QB J.P. Losman. Losman took a number of shots and by the end of the night his leg was wrapped to help alleviate the pain from a bruised thigh. Lynch carried nine times and gained nine yards. The Bills rushed for 26 yards in the first half!
And how good an evaluator is Herm Edwards? All preseason he kept implying that young Brodie Croyle was the guy he liked. Then Croyle played so bad in preseason he was forced to name Damon Huard the opening day starter. Kansas City's first-and second-team units have produced just one touchdown in three exhibition games. He ran Trent Green out of town because Green was terrible, and now Croyle has looked awful. Maybe it's the system? Certainly Edwards is no offensive wizard. "We need a spark," Edwards said this week. They sure do. He'd better hope RB Larry Johnson and Huard are the answer.
And speaking of answers, the Jets need an answer quickly on the offensive line. Coach Eric Mangini took a hard line with Pete Kendall, who wanted (and deserved) a raise. They traded Kendell last week to the Redskins and the offensive line is a major concern now. In the Jets' 20-12 victory against the Giants, QB Chad Pennington faced pressure all night, mostly from the left side. Bender and Adrien Clarke struggled at left guard and their problems were compounded by the fact that second-year left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson is still trying to find his way.
Manning Pennington's all-important blind side, Bender and Ferguson allowed a sack apiece. Pennington has completed 12 of 21 passes for 129 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in preseason. If the Jets think the Giants gave them trouble up front, wait until the season opener when they face the Patriots and Richard Seymour, Ty Warren and Vince Wilfork!
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