College Football Depth is a Deep Divide
The college football season gets underway in less than two weeks. An area of college football dynamics that's important to understand early in the season is depth. This doesn't refer to how many star players a team has, but whether a team is stocked or thin with above-average players at a lot of positions. Large schools with a long tradition of winning football are usually heavy with depth. These would include Tennessee, Florida State, Texas, USC, Ohio State and defending national champion Florida. For the most part, these teams have little trouble recruiting a lot of talent and have athletic budgets and scholarships that allow them to stock their teams with depth.
This gives them an edge when players get hurt and they have a quality reserve to plug in. If a smaller school that likes to run the football has two talented offensive linemen that get hurt, limited depth could severely alter their offensive production. This is something to keep in mind over the next month, because each August and September some lesser known schools may deceive with strong starts.
Vanderbilt of the SEC fit that mode two years ago. The Commodores had a veteran team behind QB Jay Cutler, now in the NFL, and exploded with a 4-0 September. However, this is not a powerhouse program with a winning tradition. Vandy proceeded to lose seven in a row, going 2-4 against the spread after that hot start. They lost to Middle Tennessee State and Kentucky as double-digit favorites, and got swamped by SEC powerhouses LSU (34-6) and Georgia (34-17), failing to get the cover. A lack of quality depth undermined the Commodores. Last year they were rebuilding and the results were predictable: A 4-8 team, with three wins against Temple, Duke and Tennessee State.
Most schools don't have the gridiron tradition to attract lots of talent, hence they often lack depth. In recent years, these schools would include Duke, Northwestern, Kansas, Indiana, Illinois and Duke. What can happen is that in September small schools can give the appearance of being competitive, but as October and November roll around, they begin to play much worse, straight up and against the spread. Keep this in mind over the next few weeks if you think a team may be overrated.
It could be that they are playing above their heads because everyone is healthy in September. But football is such a violent, physical game, players get banged up with injuries and either miss playing time or are not 100%. Schools lacking depth are at a big disadvantage as the talent level on the bench drops when compared to big-name schools. They can't plug in equally effective players as the starters get banged up.
Wyoming was a good example of this in each of the last two seasons. In 2006 the Cowboys took Syracuse and Virginia to overtime on the road in the first half of the season (losing both but covering), lost just 17-10 to Boise and thumped Utah, 31-15 as a dog. Yet, in the second half they ran out of gas, going 0-4 ATS to end the season. In 2005 the Cowboys were very competitive through the first week of October, starting 4-1. They upset Air Force and Ole Miss, while covering in a loss at Florida. In fact, they started 5-0 against the spread. However, the lack of depth was evident as the defense got smoked the rest of the season, giving up 34 or more points in its final four contests. Wyoming went 0-6 ATS to end 2005.
Oddsmakers aren't always up on these shifts, either. A few years ago I recall Kansas lost 27-16 at Colorado as a 25-point dog and then pulled a 34-31 upset at Texas Tech as a +13 road dog. Oddsmakers adjusted, assuming Kansas was better than expected, as the Jayhawks hit a tough October/November stretch that included games against Oklahoma, K-State, Nebraska and Texas. Kansas went 1-6 ATS to end that season. The lack of depth was evident as Kansas lost three straight by scores of 51-7, 59-0 and 49-7.
This is why injury reports are so important for analyzing and handicapping games. If a famous football school loses several players to injuries, they may have the depth to plug in and not miss a beat. However, it's not uncommon to see overvalued small schools with less depth go on a straight up or spread slide after a good start to the season.
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