MLB WINNING FORMULA
In last week's article, I talked about the dangers of looking too much at earned run average. It's a stat that can be greatly polluted and misleading, particularly if you're looking at short term numbers.
A good pitcher can have poor numbers over a small stretch, but he's still a good pitcher. A bad pitcher can have good numbers over a small stretch, but he's still a bad pitcher. Do you want to handicap based on their quality, or on their small stretches?
Too many bet baseball like it's roulette. They see a streak, and they want to ride it. A pitcher's had a few good starts in a row, so he's suddenly "found his form" and is ready to dominate. A pitcher is coming off two bad starts, so he's suddenly lost it and can't get anybody out. Try that with black and red on the roulette wheels in Vegas and see how well it works. Vegas casinos started raking in the dough when they posted those little electronic scoreboards that tell you what numbers have come up recently on the wheel. You can't beat roulette! It doesn't matter what numbers have come up lately!
I'm a strong believer in focusing on the strengths and weaknesses of pitchers rather than raw earned run averages. I've come up with a statistic that helps you express those strengths and weaknesses in a way that's easily digestible. I think that you'll gain a greater understanding about major league pitchers by putting it to use.
First, the key elements:
*GETTING PEOPLE OUT: my stat rewards pitchers who get people out, and punishes those who don't. Sounds simple enough. You've got to start with the fundamentals.
*STRIKING PEOPLE OUT: history has made it very clear that pitchers who get a lot of strikeouts last longer with more effectiveness than pitchers who don't. It's the single most dominant influence when charting out the career paths of any pitcher at any age. High strikeout guys are more effective and more consistent than low strikeout guys. Making hitters miss is better than making hitters hit it to a fielder in the big picture. Longtime professional wagerers have taken advantage of this knowledge for years. My stat gives an extra boost to strikeout pitchers.
*KEEPING PEOPLE OFF BASE: This sounds redundant, but actually isn't. If you get outs while allowing some base runners, too many of those guys will eventually come around to score. Obviously three outs with no base runners is better than three outs with one base runner, or three outs
with two base runners. Pitchers can't trade outs for hits with opposing offense. They have to keep runners off base. Nobody in the league can get everyone out. Nobody in the league is so bad that they can't get anybody out. The way to evaluate the quality of pitchers must involve
finding the relationship between outs and base runners.
Here's a simple stat which does that:
*OUTS (which is INNINGS PITCHED times THREE) plus STRIKEOUTS (we want to double count strikeouts because of their impact on success) minus BASE RUNNERS (hits allowed plus walks allowed) PER GAME.
Or, in a mathematical form:
*3(IP) + Ks - Hits - Walks divided by Games Played.
The best pitchers will average in the 15-18 range (with a few going even higher) over a large sampling of starts. Innings munchers will average in the 13-14 range while getting the job done. Struggling starters will average 12 or below. Frankly, any guy averaging 12 or below will be fighting to maintain a spot in the rotation.
To briefly bring these numbers to life, let me provide some one-game examples from the other night:
*This past Friday night, Gil Meche of Kansas City hurled a gem at Detroit. He pitched seven innings (21 outs), allowing just five hits while getting five strikeouts with no walks. That game grades out to a very strong 21 (21+5-5-0).
*This past Friday night, Josh Beckett of Boston pitched a other great game for the Red Sox. He threw six innings (18 outs), with 10 of the 18 outs coming on strikeouts. Talk about impact! He allowed just four hits and two walks to the White Sox. That game grades out to an even stronger 22 (18+10-4-2).
*This past Friday night, Mike Mussina of the NY Yankees got rocked by Tampa Bay. He pitched 4 2/3 innings (14 outs) while putting 10 runners on base (seven hits and three walks). He did have five strikeouts, but it wasn't enough to stem the tide. The game score here is a lousy 9 (14+5-10).
You can do the math very quickly in your head when you look at the boxscores. It literally takes only seconds. Instead of messing with game ERA's, or trying to put everything into words, you can just put in your notes (I use my handy schedule) that Beckett pitched a 22, Meche pitched a 21, and Mussina had a 9. Those numbers sum things up beautifully.
Do that for the full day's schedule, and the pitching performances are easy to absorb. Do it every day, and you get a sense of who the high impact pitchers really are. Compile the full season averages for each pitcher (the information is easy to find at any sports handicapping website that offers pitching matchups), and the "take" or "go against" guys literally jump off the page.
Again, the best pitchers will rank at 15 or higher for a season average, with the best individual games scoring in the 20s. The worst pitchers will be 12 or worse for a season average, with the worst individual games reaching into the negatives. Derek Lowe of the Los Angeles Dodgers popped a negative-three this past Thursday night when he allowed 13 base runners in just three innings in a game against the Mets.
This stat makes you focus on what truly matters when it comes to evaluating pitchers. When you combine it with your knowledge of offenses, and ballparks, the games literally start to pick themselves. That's true for Over/Unders too, by the way.
Spend less time on the fickleness of earned run averages, and more time on the impact stats. I think you'll be very pleased with the results!
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