Defense and Baseball Totals
An overlooked aspect of baseball is defense, but it is an extremely important facet of the game. The old adage "being strong up the middle" is very significant, having a strong defensive catcher, shortstop and center fielder. Shortstops with above-average range can get to grounders and turn them into double plays. Shortstops that lack range won't get to those balls, and what happens? They end up as singles, a big difference from a double play, especially if you're the guy on the mound!
For instance, the Florida Marlins are the worst defensive team in baseball. Notice that the Marlins started 17-20 as a favorite, talk about a money-burner! You can examine their overall hitting stats, which are decent, but don't overlook poor defense. Bad defense can mean more runs and in the right scenario: More singles instead of double plays, more unearned runs because of errors, and more games over the total.
It's no surprise those same Marlins are 36-30 over the total, including 19-11 over at home. Over the weekend I had a play on a Marlins total with this in mind. In my analysis of the Florida/Kansas City game I wrote, "Everything sets up pretty well for a high scoring game here. The Marlins continues to hit the ball well and play lousy defense, which is always a plus when looking for an Over. And the Royals are suddenly bopping the ball, with rookie sensation Alex Gordon starting to finally figure things out after a couple of really rough months.
"Starting pitching is also a part of this call. Rookie Van Den Hurk has had a couple of nice outings but when he's been off, it's been really ugly. KC's Jorge De La Rosa's control problems have started resurfacing the last four starts and that's a huge red flag for him. Add it all up and the prospects for a high scoring contest here are very strong. I'm on the Marlins and Royals to go Over the Total."
The Marlins committed 3 more errors in the game, with combined 28 hits and 6 walks. It was over the total by the fifth inning as the Marlins eventually came back and won 9-8 (thanks to their bats, not their gloves).
A couple of other teams that have a brutal combination for overs are the Cincinnati Reds and the Texas Rangers: No pitching and bad defense. The Reds defense is ranked third-worst in the NL while the Rangers are second worst in the AL. In fact, the two teams met over the weekend and all three games sailed over the total with scores of 7-6, 8-4 and 11-4. Bring back the dead ball era to help these guys!
In fact, one of the games I released to my clients as an over, reasoning, "Bronson Arroyo continues to struggle, with his hits to innings pitched ratio simply not getting any better. As for Texas starter Kevin Millwood, he's been about as bad as it gets for the most part. Two starting pitchers in shabby current form, and a day game in a ballpark that yields big numbers on a constant basis are the recipe for a very big offensive day. The first two games in this series have gone Over, and I see more the of the same here."
When the dust had settled the teams had combined for 4 errors 20 hits and 15 runs. The Rangers pulled away with four runs in the ninth off one of the NL's worst bullpens. The Reds had one of their three errors in the inning.
The Tigers look to be a scary team if they can get their pitching healthy, which is likely the case. That's because the Tigers are tops in offense and third in team defense. Getting the bullpen healthy along with starter Kenny Rogers' return, and Detroit could come close to having a deadly trifecta of hitting, pitching and defense. Hitting and pitching are the two most examined areas in baseball handicapping, but don't ignore the subtleties, and importance, of defense.
|
|
