NBA Finals Showcase
I recall a story on the eve of Super Bowl 38 four years ago. The Patriots were about to take the field when coach Bill Belichick gave a passioned speech to his team saying, "Everybody's talking about the Cinderella Carolina Panthers. Nobody's talking about you guys. Well I'm sick of hearing about how great the Panthers are!"
His team had been champions just two years earlier, the same year Carolina was 1-15, yet he was trying to get the point across that everyone was fawning over the upstart Panthers while disrespecting (or at least overlooking) his team. You might say Tim Duncan, Gregg Popovich and the Spurs are in a similar boat.
So much of the focus for the Finals is on the Cleveland Cavaliers making the NBA Finals for the first time. "I'm just hoping every once in a while, they'll throw the Spurs in there between LeBron highlights," Tim Duncan said. "That would be nice."
James was just 18 when the Cavaliers drafted him No. 1 in 2003, the same month Duncan was winning title No. 2 for San Antonio. James has been billed as the next Michael Jordan, and he is certainly growing into that superstar suit, especially after that Jordanesque 48-point performance in two overtimes against Detroit.
Both teams are going to play all-out defense, that's a given. But two keys to the series could be: Road play and three point shooting. Like many young teams, the Cavaliers have been dynamite at home (37-12 SU, 26-22 ATS) where the defense steps up allowing 90 ppg. But on the road they are just 25-24 SU (though 28-20 ATS). Since San Antonio has home court, the Cavs are going to have to steal at least one on the road if they want to pull the upset.
The Spurs are also terrific at home (38-12 SU, 28-22 ATS) but unlike Cleveland, they are a strong road team at 32-16 SU, 27-20 ATS. They won both road games in knocking off Denver in the first round, won Games 1 and 5 at Phoenix, and won at Utah, 91-79. The Spurs are also 26-17 and 28-21 UNDER the total at home the last two years.
During the regular season, Cleveland won both meetings by playing stellar defense, 88-81 and 82-78. And that defense brings up the second point: Three-point shooting. Both teams have the big men to clog the paint and crash the defensive boards. You might say the Cavaliers are San Antonio East, the way they play suffocating defense (actually, they are more like the Larry Brown Pistons).
With all that big beef packing the paint, someone is likely to be open from long range. The key will be finding that open man and then he'll have to drain it. San Antonio is used to this. After losing in the playoffs to the Lakers in 2004, the Spurs realized they had no one to make the three, which killed them. The Lakers kept packing the lane and daring the Spurs to hit the open jumper, but they were ice cold.
So they went out and added Brent Barry to go along with veteran Robert Horry and Manu Ginobili. It worked as the Spurs became far more reliable from long range. The Pistons double-teamed James which left guys wide open, and the big story was rookie guard Daniel Gibson, who was 5-for-5 from beyond the arc in Game 6. Gibson is 26-for-52 (50%) in the playoffs from long range. Can the rookie keep doing it on the biggest stage of the season?
The Spurs are gunning for their fourth NBA title in the past nine seasons and third in the past five. Cleveland is 21-10 ATS as a dog this season. "Everybody likes new stuff," Tony Parker said. "It's LeBron James' first Finals, so obviously a lot of people are going to root for him. That's fine. But they still have to try to beat us." The old guys are going to try and show the kids they are not yet ready to give up the thrown.
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