NBA Finals: Sneak Peak
Once the San Antonio Spurs made is safely past the Phoenix Suns, NBA experts and fans have pretty much assumed that a Spurs/Detroit Pistons championship round was imminent.
Both of those teams were clear favorites to advance in their respective conference championship matchups. Both of those teams have a history of doing well in the playoffs. In fact, they played each other for the championship two seasons ago.
With that in mind, I thought today would be a good time to review that series from June of 2005 to see what might be in store for the 2007 championship round. I know it's a little early. But successful handicapping is directly tied to preparation and research. If you want to get the jump on the oddsmakers, you should always be a few steps ahead of them.
Consider:
*The rosters and styles for San Antonio and Detroit are very similar to what they were in 2005. Sure, Detroit head coach Larry Brown has been replaced by Flip Saunders. Ben Wallace doesn't anchor the Pistons defense any more. And, the Spurs have a few different role players on the roster now. But the key elements of how each team gets the job done are virtually identical. What happened in 2005 could have strong predictive value for 2007.
*Even if Detroit should fall to Cleveland in the Eastern finals, looking at the 2005 Spurs/Pistons matchup will STILL be a great indicator because Cleveland plays very similarly to Detroit in the playoffs. You saw that when they met last year. You saw it again in the first few games this year. In terms of style and tempo, San Antonio/Cleveland will be very similar to San Antonio/Detroit.
*As I write this, Utah is down three games to one in the West. Projecting Utah/Detroit or Utah/Cleveland would be a waste of handicapping time at this juncture. Not that a comeback is impossible, but it's probably not going to happen.
Here's a brief review of what happened in the 2005 Finals...
GAME ONE
San Antonio (-6/175) beat Detroit 84-69
It's important to remember that the Spurs had eight days of rest before this series started. Detroit only had a few days to recover from a seven-game war with Miami . The Pistons had to win Game Six at home, then Game Seven on the road to advance. There clearly seemed to be some carryover fatigue.
GAME TWO
San Antonio (-4.5/172) beat Detroit 97-76
Many handicappers played the bounce back theory here with the Pistons. They got spanked! Detroit didn't do anything to resolve its offensive woes. This was basically a replay of Game One with a bit more scoring and tempo. It looked to many like the Spurs were going to storm to an easy series victory at this point. Let's start watching the totals. Vegas opened the series with a very low Over/Under (which they'll do again this year). The first game stayed way Under, but you'll see this turned out to be an Over series. This game only had 173 points, but it still went Over!
GAME THREE
Detroit (-4/171) beat San Antonio 96-79
The series switched sites to Detroit for three games, and the Pistons responded to the home crowd. They got tired of hearing they didn't have a chance in the series, and they basically posted a reverse image of game two. The scores were almost identical, and the totals barely went Over the low Vegas thresholds. So far, we haven't had a close game!
GAME FOUR
Detroit (-3.5/172) beat San Antonio 102-71
Once again, bounce back wagerers got spanked. Detroit lifted its game even higher. It was the fourth straight blowout in the series, and the third straight game that went Over the total despite a scoring sum in the mid 170s. We're knotted up at two games apiece. But favorites are 4-0 ATS. Bounce back teams are 1-2 ATS.
GAME FIVE
San Antonio (+4/173) beat Detroit 96-95 in overtime (89-all in regulation)
This was the first time the series seemed like a championship round. The Spurs managed to eke out a win before heading back to Texas . This was also the first underdog cover of the series. Note that the regulation total was still in the 170s but still went Over. We're now at 4-1 to the Over through five games even though 180 wasn't topped in regulation.
GAME SIX
Detroit (+5.5/174) beat San Antonio 95-86
Keep that confetti in the rafters! Detroit wasn't going to give up without a fight. This is a team that beat Miami on the road in the seventh game. Here they scored a double digit cover with an upset victory. Bounce back teams move to 3-2 ATS for the series. Underdogs have now covered two straight. Amazingly, in a series with great defenses, we've seen five of six games go Over the total.
GAME SEVEN
San Antonio (-4/176) beat Detroit 81-74
The Spurs recovered from their flat play in the sixth game, and clamped down on defense in this ugly victory.
For the series:
Favorites (all home teams): 5-2 ATS
Bounce Back Teams: 4-2 ATS
Totals: 5-2 to the Over, with most of the games landing in the mid 170's.
I'm not saying that 2007 will be an instant replay of 2005. I do think these themes will hold true:
*The teams (likely the Spurs v. either the Cavs or Pistons) will settle into a tempo and stick there most of the time. If the oddsmakers aren't in touch with that range, you'll find great value asking for the teams to continue what they're doing. Don't ask the totals to bounce around. Expect consistency (but do remember that seventh games are often lower scoring than the others if it does get that far).
*Taking the loser of the prior game may be a smart percentage play, but may not work all the time. Anyone still alive this deep in the playoffs has established that they can play well after a loss. Bounce back teams covered 67% of the time in 2005, even if they did start 1-2 ATS. Note that underdogs off a loss were just 2-2 ATS in 2005. Favorites off a loss were 2-0 ATS (Pistons in Game Three, Spurs in Game Seven).
*Home court advantage does matter in the playoffs. The fact that championship caliber teams are capable of winning on the road doesn't mean the road teams offer automatic value. Home court AND a bounce back often proves to be particularly potent.
Best of luck handicapping the upcoming NBA championship round. Be sure you map out a logical plan of attack so you can stay a few steps ahead of the oddsmakers.
|
|
