Baseball's Stumbling Frauds
Every year there are surprises in baseball. There's been plenty of focus on the great play of the Brewers, and the continuing strong starts of the Indians, Braves, Red Sox and Mets. Less attention has been paid to the busts - those teams that have perplexed and disappointed prognosticators. Here's a look at some teams that have struggled and what has gone wrong.
Reds: Is it true this team started 4-1 and was in first place? How? Regardless, they're now in last place. Their biggest problem is pitching, particularly in the bullpen. They are a team of extremes, with two quality starters in Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, followed by a whole lot of nuthin'.
The bullpen has been flammable. The Reds have given up 38 runs in the eighth inning, one more than they've given up in the seventh and ninth innings combined. If you ever doubted the importance of set up men, the Reds' sinking ship will straighten you out.
Cubs: The Cubbies were embarrassed by the 2006 flame-out season, so they were huge spenders over the winter, a $300 million offseason overhaul, bringing in Lou Piniella, Alfonso Soriano, Jason Marquis and Ted Lilly. Despite all the money flying through the air, the 2007 Cubbies have been money-burners, starting 15-16 as a favorite with a minus-16.7% wagering return on investment. Lou Piniella is busy making changes to an explosive bullpen, last week bringing in Carlos Marmol and Angel Guzman, and moving Neal Cotts out.
Along with the bullpen changes, the Cubs inserted lefty Sean Marshall into the starting rotation. He became the third lefty in the rotation, joining Ted Lilly and Rich Hill. Oddly, the Cubs rank near the top of the National League in pitching, fielding and hitting, yet they have been losing. That's explained in part by a 2-10 record in one-run games and a bullpen that has blown seven saves and has a 3-11 record. If the Cubs can get Carlos Zambrano more consistent, they could improve.
Mariners: Seattle started the season 5-3, led by dominating young pitcher Felix Hernandez. A young ace can do wonders for a staff and the Mariners had high hopes for 2007. Then, they stumbled, losing 6 in a row as Hernandez missed a month with an elbow problem.
Seattle is not lacking for talent, with players like Ichiro Suzuki, Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, catcher Kenji Johjima, closer J.J. Putz and hard throwing starter Hernandez. The offense draws the fewest walks in the AL, and without Hernandez the pitching staff plummeted to one of the weakest in the league. Yet, with Felix now back, perhaps they can right the ship. Note that Seattle started 8-3 against lefty pitchers.
Rangers: Texas surprised last season with an improved pitching staff of Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla, bought in free agency. The two combined for 31 wins. This season, both have been awful, starting a combined 4-10 with stratospheric ERAs.
Just as bad has been a surprisingly cold offense. The Rangers' pitching, fielding and hitting are all rank second to last in the AL. Equally awful is their road play, a 7-17 start away from home!
Cardinals: It appears more and more that the defending champs caught lightening in a bottle last October. They struggled through a poor 83-win season, got hot at the right time and somehow won the World Series, but now the spell is gone as they've turned back into a frog. Ace Chris Carpenter has been on the shelf with injuries, and the once-vaunted offense is near the bottom of the NL in slugging and on base percentage.
They have been huge money-burners with a minus-23 ROI with a losing record as a favorite. If they are going to make a push, it will likely come over the next four weeks. The immediate schedule ahead for the Cardinals is paved with series against sub-.500 clubs. The Cardinals will have five consecutive series against sub-.500 teams and 23 of 26 games against opponents with losing records.
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