Interleague Lessons
All the fun and excitement of Interleague play in Major League Baseball this past weekend got me to thinking about the best expectations for what we may see the rest of this season. First of all, the American League finished 24-18 against their National League brethren.
Last year, the baseball and wagering worlds were stunned at how dominant the American League was against the National League. There was a general understanding that there was a bit more talent in the A.L. Nobody was expecting to see records like this:
* Boston: 16-2
* Minnesota: 16-2
* Detroit: 15-3
* Chicago White Sox: 14-4
* Tampa Bay: 11-7 (they were 50-94 in their other games!)
* Kansas City: 10-8 (they were 52-92 in their other games!)
Baseball is the sport with so much competitive balance that Vegas has to use moneylines because a pointspread equivalent just wouldn't work. Grinding out a 5-4 record every nine games will get you to 90 wins and a possible playoff berth. Dominance like this isn't supposed to happen!
Let's turn it around and look at some of the NL nightmares from last year:
*NY Mets: 6-9 (they were 91-56 in their other games!)
* Los Angeles Dodgers: 5-10 (they were 83-64 in their other games!)
* St. Louis: 5-10 (eventual World Series champs!)
* Philadelphia: 5-13
* Atlanta: 5-10
* Chicago Cubs: 4-11
* Arizona: 4-11
* Pittsburgh: 3-12
I wanted to outline those highs and lows for you here because there's a good chance we'll see something similar this season. From the outset this year, I decided I was going to pay close attention to a key indicator that would signal if the difference in leagues was still in play. That key indicator for me was pitcher Ted Lilly of the Chicago Cubs.
You see, Lilly pitched for the Toronto Blue Jays last year, but switched leagues in the offseason. Last year an early indicator for the difference in leagues was the success of Bronson Arroyo of the Cincinnati Reds. He had been a late rotation innings muncher for the Boston Red Sox the prior season. Suddenly, in the National League, he was a Cy Young candidate. I wanted to see if Lilly would show the same tendency in the league switch:
TED LILLY
Last Year: 4.31 ERA, 5 2/3 IP per start.
This Year: 2.53 ERA, 6 2/3 IP per start.
BINGO! By the way, those numbers for this year are against National League teams only. I didn't include the game against the White Sox this past Friday because they're in the American League.
Lilly is a virtual instant replay of Arroyo. He's cut off about 1.8 earned runs per nine innings (which is likely to shrink in the second half of the season, which happened last year with Arroyo). He's added a full inning per start, moving from a level that's barely acceptable for a starting to pitcher to a level that's ace quality.
Hey, I know it's only one guy. But to me, this a very strong indicator that the difference in leagues still exists. We may or may not see it in the rivalry games because have a special intensity for many of the teams involved. I do think the American League will win the season series again. If it's anything like last year, that will offer up some strong money-making opportunities for sharp wagerers.
We may very well see a few teams reach or top 14 wins in their 18 outings. It may not be the same teams as last year. But, the BEST teams in the American League are capable of doing that, no matter who they might be. We could very well see the worst teams in the American League offer up great value as underdogs that will top .500. I wouldn't be surprised if a few NL division leaders struggle. I think it's likely that the worst teams in the NL will put up something like 4-11 or 3-12 records over 15 games.
Since we know this is likely, we have to start looking for it when Interleague play resumes! Start isolating nominees for the high and low end of the spectrum. Start looking for American League also-rans that will benefit from stepping down in class. You'll get these teams at pick-em in games where they should be -1.35 or better. Sometimes you'll get them as underdogs! Make a list of NL teams who are very likely to struggle when they step up in class. The Vegas lines are unlikely to reflect the true odds when they take the field.
Last year the AL established itself early, and just kept piling up the victories. I'd have to say it was one of the greatest wagering profit opportunities I've seen in any sport the past several years. There were gifts on the board every day!
There's a good chance it could happen again. Do the prep work so you're ready to take advantage!
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