There's Value With Under the Radar Pitchers
One aspect of handicapping baseball that can provide an edge over the bookies is how starting pitchers have done NOT for the season, but LATELY. Overall seasonal stats are excellent starting points, but what's far more important is how a pitcher is doing the last two or three starts.
Some pitchers can have poor overall numbers, including ERA, but they can also be on a roll now after stumbling early in the season. I call it looking for the "buy sign," when pitchers struggle for a stretch, but then begin to turn it around before oddsmakers have caught up. I went with Phillies starter Freddy Garcia last week because he had flashed his best control since coming off the DL.
That's an indicator I like to see, because it can take time for a pitcher to find the corners with his control. I also expected the Philly bats in that game to do a number on the erratic Cubs starter Angel Guzman, who had faced a string of light-hitting opponents. I made the Phillies my NL Game of the Week and cashed with an easy 11-7 shootout, as Guzman gave up 10 base runners in 5 innings.
Other times you can find no-name pitchers who are very good. These guys can also offer outstanding wagering value if the general public doesn't know them. The public knows all about Red Sox righty Daisuke Matsuzaka, as he was the biggest story of the offseason. The team is 4-2 his last 6 starts, but offers little value as he has been a -240 favorite once and a -170 chalk three times.
However, there are many other under the radar guys. Take Fausto Carmona of the Indians. I had the Indians over the weekend and noted, "Fausto Carmona is pitching up a storm for Cleveland. Carmona has apparently learned that trying to strike out everyone doesn't work, but pitching to his spots does. The big righty is on a roll and owns a substantial edge over Oakland rookie Dallas Braden, who doesn't look like a big league caliber starter to me. I'll ride the Carmona roll and back the Indians here."
Carmona may not be a name pitcher, but he did it again, now 4-1 with a 3.12 ERA. He has a lethal sinker that helps him force batters to beat the ball into the dirt. Carmona stuck around for seven innings, giving up only the first-inning runs and six hits -- only three from the second through the seventh innings -- and four walks in a 6-3 win as a -120 favorite. Carmona obviously has come a long way from last year's failed experiment of making him a closer.
Even the Indians manager, Eric Wedge, was impressed. "That's all you need to know about that young man," Wedge said, speaking of Carmona's ability to right the ship after a shaky start. "He settled down after the first inning and did nothing but get better. He got stronger and stronger as the game went on."
Betting on baseball is very similar to the stock market. There are ups and downs of teams and individual players, just like with companies and stocks. It's an everyday process, a 162-roller coaster season of highs and lows. The trick is to buy low and jump off when teams and pitchers are overvalued.
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